What's so bad about a logjam on defence?
It seems like just about everyone (see: the Sun, ProHockeyTalk, and CKAC) has been writing about the glut of defencemen the Ottawa Senators currently have on defence. It is a glut: With Sergei Gonchar, Filip Kuba, Chris Phillips, Brian Lee, and Matt Carkner on one-way deals and no chance Erik Karlsson plays anywhere but the NHL next season, it looks like David Rundblad and Jared Cowen are going to have a hard time cracking the Sens' roster.
But what's wrong with a little competition?
Prospects like Rundblad and Cowen need to be pushed in training camp; that's the point of training camp battles. And as we found out last season when Kuba went down with a knee injury on the first day of camp (which was later followed by injuries to Carkner and Gonchar, both of whom missed significant time), even just one injury can pose a real challenge to a team's defensive depth.
Entering camp with more defencemen than roster spots is nothing new for the Senators, and the situation usually manages to work itself out. Last season, Kuba's injury opened the door for David Hale to step up and out-duel Brian Lee for the final spot on the blue line; keep in mind that Hale was on a two-way deal while Lee was on a one-way, so contracts aren't the be-all and end-all of the roster spots.
Even without injuries, though, making room on defence is a lot easier than finding defencemen to fill gaps, and that seems to be the mentality Bryan Murray has historically entered training camps with.
I wrote about the history at this time last season, because we were having the same discussions then as we are today--and in fact, we've been having this debate for a few seasons now. But, as history shows, there are ways to make room for newcomers to the blue line, which have included retirement, trades, waivers, and--of course--injuries.
- 2008/09/02, Lawrence Nycholat: Coming into a one-way deal, Nycholat was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for Ryan Shannon.
- 2008/11/27, Luke Richardson: After being signed to a one-year contract, Richardson was put on waivers, assigned to Binghamton, and retired. He was then given a coaching job with the Senators.
- 2009/09/02, Jason Smith: After missing time the previous season with a knee injury, Smith retired under curious circumstances despite one year (and $2.6M) left on his contract.
- 2009/10/02, Christoph Schubert: On a one-way deal, waived and picked up on re-entry waivers by the Atlanta Thrashers.
Although Cowen had a taste of pro hockey in last season's Calder Cup run with the Binghamton Senators and Rundblad has had a heck of a career in the SEL already, both of them still have a lot to do in order to show they're ready for NHL hockey. If they do, it's an easy situation to remedy: One of the players they out-play, whether it be Kuba, Lee, Carkner, or whoever else, will be moved somewhere.
Bruce Garrioch mentioned in his article that hitting the salary cap floor could be an issue if it's Kuba or Gonchar who's moved, but I don't think staying above it will be much of a problem; the Senators could take money back, or pull a move out of the New York Islanders' handbook: When the inevitable injuries happen, don't use the long-term injured-reserve cap credits; either way, there's little doubt the team will stay above the floor. Again, not really an issue for a GM with a little creativity.
Although James O'Brien of ProHockeyTalk said that the Sens could be "stuck" with too many defencemen, it's a problem significantly preferable to the alternative: Not enough NHL defencemen. I'd wager that given the choice, 30 GMs in the league would pick the former and deal with making room, if room needs to be made.
I'll conclude by quoting last year's post, which pretty much summed the situation up:
The bottom line is this: Right now, it looks like there are a lot of defencemen competing for very few spots. We've already seen what a single injury can do to that situation. And as we've witnessed in each of the last two seasons, it's not difficult to clear room on the roster, even if there are one-way contracts that appear to be standing in the way.
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Rounding out the D
The Sens will be so far under the cap limit that carrying an extra dman around will be no big deal. It’s silly to give away a guy like Brian Lee for next to nothing when he could blossom into something under the new coaching regime.
Carks needs to be kept around to do some banging. And I can’t imagine any scenario where someone would give us something for Kuba. Where is Mike Milbury when you need him?
It’s always great to have NHL-ready dmen playing in Bingo helping Lehner along in his development.
As an aside, for me the most surprising dman in training camp was Mark Borowieki and IMO he’s not far away from being ready.
I agree
I am on the same page as you guys (Peter, Marvellous) in believing that too many is better than too few.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Cowen start the year in Bingo and be called up around the trading deadline when the Sens move Kuba for a 7th round pick. Rundblad also might spend a month or two on the farm to get used to the physical nature of North American hockey. Karlsson spent some time in the AHL during his first season and seems to be thriving now.
Overall, I am happy with the Sens defensive depth. My only concern is the lack of physical presence. Hopefully Lee and Phillips can continue their seemingly promising partnership as a shutdown pair and Kuba can rediscover his game and Gonchar recovers fully from his injury. Of course, the best case scenario never happens, so there are bound to be opportunities for the young guys to step in and fill the gaps.
I think this is a good point.
Sure, it would be nice to have our guys ready to go at the NHL level, but another year of seasoning down at the AHL and another Calder Cup would be pretty awesome too…
I think it’s a lot more likely Rundblad will play in the AHL than Cowen. Just my feeling for now, anyway.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 16, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I find that Cowen seems like more of what the team needs than Rundblad. We’ve been looking for a big d-man since Sutton left, and before him Chara. Rundblad is of the same mold as Karlsson and Gonchar, so I don’t see the same gap to fill that Cowen does.
by modsuperstar on Aug 16, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d also suggest that it will be a lot easier for Cowen to adjust to the game than Rundblad, because his game is based on taking much fewer risks, and even when he makes mistakes he’s got the size to be able to compensate for them.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 16, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Well said. Carkner and Lee are also making little enough money that it doesn’t hurt to sit them in the press box. You’ve usually got a low-paid player or two sitting up there anyway. If $700k / year Carkner and $900k / year Rundblad have to fight it out, that’s no biggie.
Gonchar is also 97 years old and will spend most of the season hurt.
Lastly: holy crap, I completely forgot that we ever had Jason Smith on this team.
I try to block that out too, he wasn’t necessarily a shining beacon of awesome out there for the Sens
by modsuperstar on Aug 16, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, with the need to stay above the cap floor the Sens could even afford to sit a guy like Kuba if the youngsters are outplaying him. They have more than enough cap space and they don’t have to worry that much about burning their bridges with him since his contract runs out this year anyway. Hopefully, Kuba will play well enough that this move is unnecessary, but it is an option if need be.
In fairness to Gonchar
He only missed time last year due to a concussion, and I don’t believe age is a factor is susceptibility there.
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The question in my mind
is not whether we have too many d men, but whether they are a good enough group to compete and to make Anderson’s life bearable. With cap an issue only because we are close to the floor, we can afford to carry extras we’ll need when injuries hit.
With the exception of Rundblad and Cowen, this is basically the same group of defensemen and here is a chance for them to show that last year was just an awful blip and not who they are.
I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with more defensemen than there are spots
The problem is that, given the deals on the table, the spots won’t necessarily be awarded based on merit. Let’s be honest – Kuba’s going to be on the roster even if his play this season somehow defies the laws of physics and is worse than last season. It’s not necessarily bad, given the cap situation the team’s in now, but that’s one spot on the roster that’s not being given out based on who deserves it. Same thing goes for Gonchar’s, although at least his play hasn’t been anywhere near the disappointing level we saw from Kuba last season (knock on wood!). Also Phillips, although he at least brings that leadership aspect to the table even if his numbers aren’t great.
The way I see it, this isn’t necessarily competition that will encourage the prospects to fight for a spot – there are a few spots that simply aren’t up for grabs. While I’d love nothing more than for them to muscle a spot away from Brian Lee, that seems pretty unlikely to happen given the whole history there. Depth on our blueline is great, but it’s not great to have a big stopgap up front that forces us to send promising, NHL-ready players down to the farm team.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I sorta think we should cross this bridge when we get to it. I mean, I guess it’s the off-season and this is what fans do, but we don’t really have any idea what we’re going to get from Cowen and Rundblad. We don’t know that they’ll be NHL-ready. Until we do, my feeling is that we should hold off before coming down on the vets for taking up valuable slots on the blue line.
Why is that unlikely?
As I mentioned, Brian Lee was muscled out of a top-six D spot by a player on a two-way contract just last season. It’s far from unlikely, given the history here.
I will agree that it’s unlikely Kuba will get bumped, but we’ll see what MacLean does if Kuba stays bad. Personally, I think he’ll have a pretty good year this year.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 16, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Realities of the Cap world and injuries
Welcome to the Cap world. NHL spots based on merit in training camp doesn’t necessarily happen because of the reality that teams around ten dmen and 20 some odd forwards to survive through a season. In Vancouver last year I believe they needed 12 dmen for the year. So teams need to have NHL-ready players in the AHL or their 3rd and 4th lines or their 3rd pairing dmen can’t compete.
If everyone were healthy all the time only happens in Fantasy games. It is tough to break into the NHL and playing really well in Junior or in the AHL for an entire season, or in the NHL for a few games doesn’t guarantee anything.
The best teams are the ones that take the time to fully develop their prospects before ruining them by exposing them too early.
For instance the Red Wings usually keep their prospects in the minors for several years until they are good and ready.
Brian Elliot is a perfect example of a player who got creamed because he was overexposed too early.
Everyone loves to pile on Kuba, but I’m willing to cut the guy slack given he’s been injured good portions of the last 2 seasons. Not everyone can come back from a broken leg or a bad back and be 100% effective mid-season. I think viably Kuba is going to be playing for his NHL career next year as I’d say he’s a pretty good candidate to end up in the KHL next year if he doesn’t have a good showing.
Agreed. His last two seasons have been injury prone.
Give him a year. He could turn things around. I’m not suggesting resigning him, but he could be a Kaberle-like deal at the deadline to a team that needs an experienced PMD.
That's how I feel
I’ve never been a Kuba fan, but I’m willing to accept that he was a much better player when he was healthy. He’s healthy now, so it’s put up or shut up time.
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About Lee and Karlsson
Could be worth a shot, but in my opinion they’re the two most mobile defensemen on the (current) team. If you put them on the same pairing you risk Kuba and Carkner (and to a slightly lesser extent Gonchar) getting exposed and dominated by faster forwards. Speedsters that love to beat the d-men wide could potentially be a huge weakness against those pairings.
I think we're looking at Gonchar-Karlsson
The Lee-Phillips, then Kuba-Cowen. I guess we’ll see, though; I could see Kuba or Lee getting bumped in favour of Carkner.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 16, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Peter is probably right
Figuring out this year’s defensive pairings is a tough one because the styles just don’t seem to match up well. My best case scenario would be for both Rundblad and Cowen to really excel in camp and the partnerships end up being (with ice-time split more-or-less evenly):
Gonchar-Rundblad
Karlsson-Cowen
Lee-Phillips
That leaves a fourth pairing of Kuba-Carkner, who would fill in when injuries occurred.

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