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Looking back at our 2010-11 pre-season predictions

Jason Spezza made our prediction panel scores a lot better than they would otherwise have been.

Back in October of 2010, a few of the managers and editors here put our heads together and made some predictionsfor the 2010-11 Ottawa Senators season.

It wasn't our best moment.

Seven questions were posed, and the best anyone fared was three points. Pretty awful. The big winner of the prediction panel? None other than Ryan Classic, although I'd caution him against bragging about it too much.

Take the jump to see the questions and how we stacked up against one another.

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1. Who will be the Sens number one goalie at the end of the regular season?

Ryan actually predicted Robin Lehner, but he also added that he wouldn't be surprised if some sort of rental came in--which got him partial marks, because he was far closer than anyone else was. Darren and Peter predicted another full year of Brian Elliott, while Mark predicted the remarkable acquisition of Tomas Vokoun.

2. Who will lead the team in scoring?

This one seemed like it should have been a gimme, and Mark, Ryan, and Peter all were correct in predicting Jason Spezza. Darren called Spezza to lead the team in points-per-game, but wasn't sure if he'd be able to lead the team in scoring overall, so that's only partial marks for Big D.

3. Sergei Gonchar: 70.5 games. Over or under?

Sergei Gonchar finished under, with 67 games. Only Ryan picked under, and he was almost right on the mark with a prediction of 68 games played. The rest of us said over.

4. Who will get more points: Nick Foligno or Peter Regin?

After Foligno's remarkable pre-season scoring pace, it looked like he might have a breakout season this year. He didn't, but he did outscore Regin (as much because Regin took huge steps backward as because of solid play from Foligno). Peter was the only person to predict it; the other three thought Regin would pick up speed after the pre-season.

5. Will Bobby Butler, Patrick Wiercioch, or Eric Gryba get called up for any significant period of time?

Grybe didn't play a game, and Wiercioch only played a couple, but Butler did play 36 games in the NHL, which most certainly qualifies as a significant period. Mark and Darren both said no, Peter said Butler would play 25 games or so which earned me partial credit, and Ryan said Butler would be the first call-up in the event of an injury, but didn't actually answer the yes-or-no question so he only gets partial marks, too.

6. Will Filip Kuba and/or Brian Lee still be Senators by the trade deadline?

Both were and still are on the team, as was correctly predicted by both Darren and Mark. Ryan and Peter thought Lee would have been moved, at the very least down to Binghamton, but that didn't happen.

7. Where will the Sens finish in the Eastern Conference?

There were some ugly predictions here, non uglier than Ryan's prediction that the Senators would win the Northeast Division and finish third overall. Everyone predicted a playoff position, and no one got any points.

Star-divide

Final standings:

  1. Ryan Classic: 3 points
  2. Peter Raaymakers: 2.5 points
  3. Mark Parisi: 2 points
  4. Darren McLeod: 1.5 points
Hopefully our predictions for next season will be a little bit more realistic... we'll make some this October.

Comment 36 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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You get big points for reviewing your predictions

The rest of us can sit back and say “oh yeah, I love the Sens but I KNEW they weren’t that good. … AND I totally called the Anderson for Elliot trade back in October.”

by Tom Camps on Jul 4, 2011 7:43 AM EDT reply actions  

I thought we would win the division too...it wasn't that unreasonable at the time

But yeah big marks for reviewing. Could have gone all Don Cherry and only mention the stuff we got right.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Jul 4, 2011 8:52 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I didn't think we'd win the division

But I did think we’d make the playoffs, and definitely thought we’d finish ahead of the Leafs.

by B_T on Jul 4, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, and we should so do a prediction pool with questions like this next season

It’d need to be more than 7 questions to help avoid ties though.

by B_T on Jul 4, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!

Phew! I’m not the only one to notice that.

by Pmoron on Jul 4, 2011 12:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Don't beat yourselves up

I don’t think anyone saw this coming. 5th in the East to 12th in one year. And they didn’t really lose any key pieces. Plus they “solved” their puck-moving defenceman quandry by picking up Gonchar. I was optimistic. I no longer have this optimism, at least for next seaosn, but I’m leaving room for a pleasant surprise.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHbj53fZx2Y

by bacraswell on Jul 4, 2011 9:34 AM EDT reply actions  

That poor bastard

I actually think Gonchar will have a good year. I was shocked but it really seemed like even his confidence was struggling with Elliott in net. He looked much better to end the year, in my hack opinion.

by Pmoron on Jul 4, 2011 12:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Better than the Sun/Globe.

They would have gone back, edited those articles and been like “SEE! WE KNEW THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN! JUST LOOK AT THE ARTICLE WE WROTE!! … what do you mean it says it was edited 10 minutes ago? That’s a lie!!!”

by The Tif on Jul 4, 2011 9:36 AM EDT reply actions  

RYAN CLASSIC CHEATED SOMEHOW

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Jul 4, 2011 10:00 AM EDT reply actions  

Maybe he has Biff’s Sports Almanac from Back to the Future 2!

by Barnsley Pal on Jul 4, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd very hard.

Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.

by DarrenM on Jul 4, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gray's. Sports. Almanac.

As only Michael J. Fox could say it.

A Goal Horn Haiku

Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto

by Nightbreak on Jul 4, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

WOW, wasted my time reading all your "analysis"

I used to come here thinking you guys knew what you were talking about. I might have to find a different sens blog.

by Misellati on Jul 4, 2011 11:47 AM EDT via mobile reply actions   1 recs

Much like the Senators, 2010-2011 was an off-year for our predictions. We’re currently in a rebuild of our prognostication skills. But we’ve brought in guys like Adnan to address these issues, and should be competitive again by 2013.

Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.

by DarrenM on Jul 4, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just like to float and spout stuff

Adnan = BUST!

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Jul 4, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Peter dismantled a team that made some amazing predictions in 2007

Why is he leading the rebuild?

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Jul 4, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brennan and Garrioch ran the local sports writers out of town

Peter had to restock the cupboard from far and exotic places such as Vancouver, Phoenix, Vancouver again, then Florida and finally Toronto.

It is too early to say how this will pan out, but Peter deserves a chance to finish what he started.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Jul 4, 2011 1:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I guess his history gives him the benefit of the doubt

He’s made some mistakes in the past, though. I still can’t believe we passed up on a top-ranked writer for this “Adnan” guy. He wasn’t even on my board!

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Jul 4, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Haha

Guaranteed a laugh on every comment thread on here, best blog by far

by Misellati on Jul 4, 2011 1:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah that was pretty off the board

That Adnan guy has a lot of intangibles though. He might not be as textually skilled as the others, but he goes to the tough areas of the NHL, such as the 300 levels of the ACC in a Sens jersey.

Not sure if it was worth passing over that dude from Nepean though. He reported on the 67s!

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Jul 4, 2011 1:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Well..

We messed up twice, he doesn’t have the high level skill or the common sense to live in the same city as the team he covers

by Misellati on Jul 4, 2011 1:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

He's looked really good at Nuggets camp, though

Maybe there’s hope

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Jul 4, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nuggets is shielding writing though

I just mooch off other people’s writing. Can I survive in the big time with increased pressure and scrutiny?

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Jul 4, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jeez

Someone has got to hold Peter accountable for losing a quality poster in Outbox for nothing to Winnipeg. Sure he’d use the excuse that he was a Jets fan before being a Sens fan, but I’m not sure we should be letting free agents walk out the door without getting something in return for them at the deadline.

by modsuperstar on Jul 4, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am loving this thread!

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Jul 4, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

He might require some more development time though

I mean, he made some noise during the draft, but some time covering the AHL instead of throwing him right into the NHL might do him good in the long run. There’s the depth of NHL writing to allow him to show what he can do long term writing about Bingo.

by B_T on Jul 4, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good for him

Hope he gets a chance to impress. Had some good games in Ottawa this year, but I guess he just wasn’t in the team’s plans moving forward.

by Peter Raaymakers on Jul 4, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great work!

I don’t think you should feel bad about your predictions being off – after all, none of us are able to predict the future, and it’s mostly a crapshoot when we make predictions anyway.

by JonathanA on Jul 4, 2011 3:57 PM EDT reply actions  

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