Will He Or Won't He? BobbyButler Edition
Editor's note: The following is a FanPost by one of our readers. Anyone can post a FanPost to start a discussion or shed some insight on a topic, and our favourites end up posted on the front page. Thanks to OD99 for this great piece!
Welcome to the first edition of Will He Or Won't He! Hoping to spur debate I will begin posting stories centered around the Sens organization that ask a simple question regarding aspects of the team while inserting my view and inviting others to back it up or oppose it (hopefully with a reason). Today is all about BobbyButler...
Will BobbyButler score an astonishing 30 goals this season while riding shotgun beside Jason Spezza and whoever else they put on the line?
Admittedly 30 goals will not be an easy task but I believe both recent and not so recent history indicate Butler has the skill set, winning attitude and pedigree that all gifted snipers must possess. See more after the jump...
NOT SO RECENT HISTORY - HIGH SCHOOL AND JUNIOR
Lots of kids can light it up at the lower levels and as the competition increases the pretenders swiftly get exposed but as BobbyButler has progressed through each level he has taken some time to adjust before his knack for finding the back of the net has shone through. With hockey being organized slightly differently in the USA we can pull data from both his time as a member of the Boston Jr. Bruins and as a player with Marlborough High (everyone receives a carton of smokes each semester and their mascot is Menthol Moose).
Posting a combined 31 goals and 41 assists in 115 games his first two season for the Jr. Bruins BobbyButler really broke out in '05-'06 registering 28 goals and 30 assists in but 61 games. The Bruins also won the EJHL championship in '05 (the one time in 8 seasons that NJ or NH didn't win it).
After making the varsity hockey team while still in 8th grade BobbyButler went nuts his Junior and Senior years of HS scoring an astounding 116 goals (first setting the school record with 58 goals as a junior and then matching it the following season) and 53 assists in 50 games while also leading his team to the Div 3 State title in '05.
SOMEWHAT RECENT HISTORY - UNH WILDCATS ('06/'07 - '09/'10)
This is the first large leap BobbyButler would have made competition wise and as expected he progessed each season.
| Season | Team | Lge | GP | G | A | Pts | PIM | +/- | GP | G | A | Pts | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006-07 | U. of New Hampshire | H-East | 38 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 12 | ||||||
| 2007-08 | U. of New Hampshire | H-East | 38 | 14 | 12 | 26 | 20 | ||||||
| 2008-09 | U. of New Hampshire | H-East | 38 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 36 | ||||||
| 2009-10 | U. of New Hampshire | H-East | 39 | 29 | 24 | 53 | 20 |
I can't explain the drop in goals his sophomore season (as in junior there is lots of turn over so perhaps younger linemates?) but his total points went up and then he really lit the lamp his senior season when he was nominated for the Hobey Baker award and finished as the runner up.
RECENT HISTORY - BABY SENS / OTTAWA SENS / CALDER CUP WINNING SENS
It is in BobbyButler's first full season as a pro that the numbers show how dynamic he can and will be. As having a well rounded game is important in the current NHL (and by extension will impact his playing time) this section will take a look at some other aspects of his game such as +/-, power play time and efficiency and his consistency. Taking into account some time to get accustomed to the speed and rigours of AHL and NHL hockey I am not considering his 2 games at the end of '10 season although I was present for his pro debut against the 'Canes and thought he looked good then as well.
Beginning his first full season of pro hockey in Bingo Butler wasted no time by scoring a goal in his first game and having 3 goals and 5 points after his fist first four games. From there he had one of his longer scoring slumps, not posting a point for 3 straight games before ripping off 9 goals and 3 assists during an 8 game point streak. Throughout the rest of his regular season AHL games Butler had goal scoring droughts of 8 and 5 games but other than that he never went longer than 2 games without scoring a goal. It should also be noted that Butler scored 8 of his 22 goals on the PP and that while he was -6 after 10 games, he finished the season a +5..
BobbyButler's NHL career didn't start out nearly as well as he had 0 points in his first 9 games (the 9th game being the first of his 3rd and final call up for the season) and was a shockingly bad -11 after 12 games. Perhaps not having instant success was a good thing in the long run as his finish was something that should make all Sens fans giddy with excitment for what will be. Games 10-12 had him post 3 goals and 2 assists and in total he scored 10 goals and 11 assists over the final 27 games but the most impressive stats? He slowed the bleeding and was only -5 over that same time frame and also didn't prop up his totals with PP chances, bagging only 1 goal and 4 assists with the man advantage all season.
Butler carried that momentum into the Calder Cup play-offs scoring 13 goals and 4 assists over 23 games while contributing points in 16 of those contests (he also spaced his ability to bulge the twine very well scoring 13 goals over 13 different games). He also ate up the opposition on the PP netting 6 of his 13 goals with a little more room to maneuver.
BOBBY BUTLER WILL SCORE 30 GOALS IN 2011/2012
Taking into account his consistency, his shot, willingness to get into the dirty scoring areas and what I believe will be time on the #1 line and #1 power play I expect BobbyButler to score 30 goals and 50+ total points. Few players are blessed with the knack for scoring that Butler has (as evidenced by the fact that only 29 NHL players scored 30 or more goals last season) and I for one am very much looking forward to seeing the varied ways he finds to fill the net.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Silver Seven community, and does not necessarily reflect the beliefs or opinions of the site managers, editors, or Sports Blogs Nation, Inc.
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Being realistic.
I think The Butler will be closer to 15 – 20 goals and 35 – 40 pts. Probaly closer to the lower end of those numbers but for his first full year in the bigs on a young rebuilding team I think those are stats that he’ll build on.
I do think that he will become a 30 goal score in this league because he has all the tools, I just don’t see it happening this year.
One word: Bozak
I would be happy if Butler scored 15.
Bozak isn't as talented and the circumstances are different
So I can’t take that as a fair comparison. Bozak came out of the gates well but Kessel isn’t as good a linemate in terms of helping point production as Spezza is – he makes his linemates better and I just don’t see Kessel doing that much.
I also just believe he is a better player and a truly gifted scorer so 15 goals would be a tremendous let down. In fact I think 25 goals is about as low as he may go.
I think that's revisionism
When Bozak burst onto the scene the previous year, there was plenty of hype for him. He was the most skilled out of his college class, immediately got his feet wet in the NHL, scored an absolute gem of a first goal, and went on to put up 27 points in 37 games. Many Leafs fans thought he would be a perfectly good second-line center, and perhaps even a first-line center. Many predicted 50-60 points out of him this year.
And then he scored 5 more points in 45 more games.
The circumstances aren’t really all that different. Bozak was about as highly regarded before last season as Butler is now. If you’re a playmaking center, having Kessel on your wing is about as beneficial to you as having Spezza feeding you as a scoring winger.
by TheGuineaPig on Jul 28, 2011 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you bought the Leaf hype on Bozak rather than taking his talent into account
He isn’t as talented a play maker as Butler is a scorer and to compare the two simply because they were both college FA’s doesn’t make sense. I could throw Penner at you as he scored 29 goals his first full season in the NHL but that isn’t a good comparison either because he and BobbyButler don’t play the same way.
No doubt it comes down at least partially to me believing Butler has “it” and that given a chance he will score goals however I also think the stats I pointed out as well as the article on TSN that shows Butler was 29 in the entire NHL in even strength goals per 60 minutes on ice give a pretty good indication that he will progress. Look at his goal highlights too…he scored from everywhere…that goal against Atlanta was just sick – not many players can snip far side with a flick of the wrist while skating away from the goal.
Go Butsy go
Butsy’s got more talent in his little toe than Bozak has in his entire body. Bozak just plays on a team where he’s the main center because there ain’t no one else.
Butsy will do fine if he can handle all the hockey nuts like us expecting him to score 30 goals. My guess is 16 goals and 20 assists for 36 points if he plays with a healthy Spez all year, and I’ll go against the grain and say he’ll score a little more and assist a little less… 18 goals and 14 assists for 32 points if he spends alot of time on other lines.
My hope is that once he plays with Spez alot this year, he’ll be so brimming with confidence that he’ll power another line into the stratosphere.
I think you are playing scared too Marvellous
Come on…with your assesment of players from the prospects camp I know you can see the natural ability Butler has…he gets to the scoring areas and can finish. Reach a little higher…you won’t jinx him by stating he can score at least 20+ ;)
One Word: Spezza
If he plays on the first line all year I can easily see him score 20-25 goals.
Great story
I think that of all goes right, Butler could very well score 30 goals. But considering how rarely we see all things go right, I think 15-20 is far more likely. I voted that he’d score fewer.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jul 27, 2011 10:54 AM EDT reply actions
Tha's just fear talking
Regin had a good few games to finish the regular season and then scored a few points in the first round of the playoffs a couple of years ago. Butler has done much more with his limited chance than Regin has done in 3 years.
I still hope for Regin to prove he can produce points and wins with his talent rather than just look good for flashes though.
Just for the record, only 29 players scored 30 goals last year
Names that barely reached that mark include Nikolai Kulemin, Thomas Vanek, Matt Moulson, Milan Lucic, Jeff Skinner, Logan Couture, Phil Kessel…
Do people seriously think that Butler is amongst that company?
Well, 29 averages out to about one player per team
And it seems rational to suggest that on each team, there will be a particular player who’s consistently put in opportunities to score. On Ottawa, it seems like Butler will likely be that top-line, top-powerplay sniper, and will be given those opportunities—and will have a better set-up man than many others in Spezza (assuming Spezza can stay healthy all season).
I see Moulson as the best comparable on that line. He’s basically a top-line player by default, because the Islanders have little else to put there, which is the same reason Butler will likely play on Ottawa’s top line. And Moulson’s got a very good centreman in Tavares to play alongside, similar to what Butler has in Spezza.
I’m still very doubtful Butler will be able to score with the level of consistency to pot 30 goals in a season, so I voted that he likely wouldn’t. But it’s entirely possible.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jul 27, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoops
Didn’t read your thoughts on Moulson before I posted. You are very wise.
I stated that as well
But I would say both Kulemin and Moulson in particular are good comparables. Moulson put up 31 goals with 22 assists last season and 30 with 18 the previous year – I could see stats like those.
I think he has the potential to score 30
I don’t know if he’ll have the opportunities. I voted fewer.
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Uncle Bobby B, baby... Uncle Bobby B!
Oh ye of little faith.
I voted that he would, but that may just be the eternal optimist in me. Like Mark said, he definitely has the potential, but may or may not get the opportunity to do so. I believe he will, since really… who else do we have? Michalek, God bless him, is not a first line winger… we’ve pretty much established that. Butler has the tools to be a sniper in this league, and as long as they give the kid some time with Spezza, I think he’ll slide into the spot very naturally. Let’s not forget that He Who Shall Not Be Named was a natural sniper, but didn’t get himself into position very well… he was more the beneficiary of amazing Spezza passes. Butler probably won’t sit in the slot with his stick cocked for 19 minutes a game.
To become old and wise, you must first be young and stupid. - old army proverb
Have to disagree on the Heatley thing
As much as I dislike that dirt bag of course he knew how to get into position – one of the best in the league. Spezza and Heatley had tremendous chemistry and both think the game the same way.
If Spezza is so amazing at making crazy passes he would have turned one of his many wingers not named Heatley into at least a 25 goal scorer, no? I love Spezza so I am not trying to argue his worth, but we can’t say that Spezza is going to make BahbeeButlaaaaaaaAAAAAHHHHHHHHH a 30 goal scorer on his own…
I don't know if I agree with any of this
I don’t feel that Heatley knew how to “get into position” — he was always in the same spot. I don’t think there’s any indication that they thought the game the same way, except that Heatley’s mindset was “feed me” and Spezza’s was “feed him.” To me, thinking the game the same way would mean finding the open spaces all over the ice, not simply shooting from the top of the right circle.
As for Spezza turning someone into a 25-goal guy, he can’t take the shot for them. We definitely haven’t had any wingers with the pure shooting ability of Heatley, but more importantly, I just don’t know if I think passing=goals is a fair thing to say.
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I don't think that's quite fair
If Heatley was always in the same place, covering him would have been simple: Get the “that place” before he does. It’s not just getting into that sweet spot on the ice: Heatley’s to get open in that sweet spot on the ice, and he’s got to get his shot off quickly. He can do that.
That’s all he can do, really, but he’s one of the best in the league at doing that.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 5, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe it's not fair, but where else do you remember Heatley scoring from?
I really think he just benefited from guys choosing to try to get into the passing lane instead of getting to “that place.”
I know it’s a simplification, because he wasn’t always in the exact same spot, and it obviously takes skill to sneak in there, but it’s not like he had (or did) the skating ability to get open from all over the ice.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Too Predictible
I heard several game commentators said in the past season that Heatley was getting easier to mark and defend against. (Same with OV.) Doesn’t help when he’s not that fast.I don’t know if that’s why his production’s going down or because he was hurt. Combination of both?
Maybe he truly needs Spezza. I wonder how many players play up to expectations or above after signing their “big” contracts.
by whatsinaname on Aug 5, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
The Pizza line had a pretty good transition game
Heatley would join the rush and occasionally drive to the net and create a scoring opportunity on his own, however he was never an energy player and rarely showed us the explosive player he might have been.
As time has passed he has relied more and more on the one timer for his contributions and that’s made him more predictable and easier to defend against.
Heatley has the size and talent to be as dominating as Oveckhin, he just never developed the desire or stamina to be that involved in the game.
I remember him teaseing us with flashes of the player he might have been but when Coaches, Fans and Media called for more his atitude seemed to be what, fifty goals isn’t good enough!
Its a pity. A career that should have been glorious is slowly becoming another enigma.
by anothersensfan on Aug 5, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
They found the open spaces all the time
This is the only season long recap vid I could find but Heatley scores 50 in a variety of ways. One timers for sure but lots of plays from close to the paint and and of his one timers they are all over the offensive zone, not one place.
Also look how many times it was basically an empty net for him because he would get into the perfect scoring postion.
I am not saying Spezza is taking a shot for anything but if you look at that vid and take it as at least a pretty good sample of how Heatley scored his goals you see that Spezza feeds him for great opportunities all the time – he hasnt done that with anyone else, even Alfie. I say that is because he and Heatley had tremendous chemisty, combined with their skill.
Spezza will probably miss his requisite 20-30 games, which means Bobby Butler is being fed pucks by…Zach Smith? Stephane Da Costa? Peter Regin? He also went on huge cold streaks last season, even playing with Spezza. (Totally understandable, given it was his first year in the league and was getting used to the length of the season.)
But yeah, I think there’s a bit of Brandon Bochenski, Patrick Eaves, Nick Foligno’s first season – expectation going on. A decent first year followed by a crash back down to earth. If he plays all season on the 1st line, opposing teams will have scouted him much more thoroughly. I think we’re lucky if he gets 20 goals.
I'm going to be a broken record here
but Eaves and Foligno have never shown the scoring prowess that BobbyButler has. Bockenski is an interesting case because he actually played quite well both offensively and defensively for several teams for a while but never really got a shot to stick with anyone. A mystery.
I think we’re mistaking the way a player scores goals with scoring prowess. Butler is more of a shooter than Eaves or Foligno, for sure, but scoring prowess is the ability to score goals, however you do it. Foligno and Eaves both had very good goal totals in their first seasons, and set up the expectation that they would build on, or at least maintain those totals. They didn’t. Butler is in the same situation. He’ll get boatloads of ice time, so I think he’ll do fine, but expecting 30 goals in 82 because he looked good while scoring 10 in 36 doesn’t make much sense to me. Having said that, I like the player a lot and am looking forward to a full season from him.
I see what your are saying
But I am saying that BahbeeButlaaaaaaaAAAAAHHHHHHHHH IS a better scorer than either of those guys because he is a shooter.
He has skills neither of them have and to be a shooter means you have to be in a position to shoot the puck, which Butler is most of the time. I also think while Spezza is going to help him greatly that some (not you per se) are basically saying that Butler is going to get a shot by default and since he plays with Spezza he should score some goals.
First, I think the coaching and management see that Butler is a special player with a gift for scoring so he won’t be handed anything and second Butler manufactured some nice goals all by his lonesome. He has a very accurate shot and gets to the right places, that is mainly why I think he will beat 30 goals.
Not enough cashing in
Foligno’s only 23 years old, which is a good thing. Looking at his goal totals for the actual number of chances that he generates for himself, it just doesn’t cut it. It’s one thing to create scoring chances. It’s another thing to cash in. He’s a useful third liner, but so far, no more than that.
Butler- 20goals & 20 assists=40 points
More if playing with a healthy Spezza.
It's possible he'll score 30 goals
It may be improbable, but the door is open at least a crack. I’m going to go with ‘what the hell, why not?’ and vote for him scoring 30 goals. After all, shooting for the moon and missing is better than not shooting for the moon at all.
A modified version of that quote I love?
Shoot for the moon, cos even if you miss DUDE, YOU’RE IN F*CKING SPACE!!
by The Tif on Jul 27, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well done!
I hadn’t seen much of Butler’s stats so I’m feeling more positive. Either way, he only has a chance of getting 30 because he’ll play with Spezza.
by Pmoron on Jul 27, 2011 2:16 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think he'll score in the 20's
He’s only played half a season in the NHL and there’s no guarantee he’s spending this whole year on the top line. I’ll say this though: Spezza’s right wingers will combine to score at least 30.
Great read, but why did you keep writing BobbyButler without a space?
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by DarrenM on Jul 27, 2011 7:21 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Its JasonSpezza, isn't it? One continuous word name
Like, DarrenM. More stylish.
by whatsinaname on Jul 27, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I figured it was a stylistic thing
I considered editing it out, but I didn’t want to step on your toes too much.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jul 27, 2011 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
It's the only way to say it
I would shorten if I could…you need to say it faster than you can read it.
What about Filatov?
I think 30 is unrealistic. First, other teams will notice him, and shadow him much more. Also Spezza will still have Filatov (and ideally a healthy Michalek) to dish too. 20’ish is realistic, but I see a pure sniper in him. so 20 goals, 15 assists or so.
Filatov 15 goals+15 assists=30 points
How do I know? A little angel told me. Well, the guy is suspected of having said skill set which had never been proven, so my highest expectation of him at this juncture is 15 goals. We should have a pool for different players and see whose “little angel” is most accurate.
by whatsinaname on Jul 27, 2011 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Butler has shown he is an NHL
player but Filatov, as much as i want him to succeed, hasn’t.
I hope Filatov gets 20/20 at least but we just don’t have anything to back that up…yet!
Wow I finally voted
After 164 votes and it is 50/50 on the 30 goal mark…I am glad to see that there is that much hope out there, I expected a landslide on the under.
I figured it should be a landslide for the under. It has my vote.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
Maybe...
Great recap of Butler’s career to date. I enjoyed reading the post.
As for the question at hand, I would have voted for maybe if that option was available. I think it’s likely he will score 20-something goals with a similar number of assists and finish around the 50 point mark. Of course, if everything goes right (no injuries, lots of first line and PP minutes) then he certainly could score 30 or more. I am guessing that the under is slightly more probably (55/45), so I went for the NO option. It was a fairly close call for me.
The biggest reason Butler's not going to score 30 goals
Besides all the other stuff about him having to play a full season, going up against harder opposition, etc. is this:
He scored on 13.7% of his shots last year.
Now, that’s phenomenal. That’s good for 98th place in the league. The average last year, for the record, is 8.7%. Alex Ovechkin, the league’s most prolific scorer of the last several years, has a career average of 11.9%. And if I were any of you, don’t pick Corey Perry in your fantasy hockey for next year, because he shot 17.2%, and that’s just unsustainable.
I don’t think Butler’s going to shoot that high for his career. It’s just too much of a stretch. Let’s assume he regresses to 10% (still well above average), and increases his shots/game from 2 to 3. Increasing his shot totals by 50% is a bit of a stretch (Foligno, for example, increased his shots/game by 0.2 from his rookie to his sophomore season, while Regin declined by a bit more than the same total), but what the hell, I’ll be nice to the kid. If we assume he puts in 75 games, he scores 23 goals. I think that’s a pretty generous estimate.
Bottom line is, I don’t see a way for Butler to score 30 goals.
by TheGuineaPig on Jul 28, 2011 12:08 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Some perspective on numbers
Very cool numbers but let’s add a bit more context to them so they are more in line with BobbyButlers position.
While the NHL average shot percentage was 8.7% the D average was 4.85% and the forwards was 10.45% so while Butler was above average as compared to his direct peers, it isn’t quite as dramatic a delta as it may seem. In fact, being a natural scorer it would seem correct that BobbyButler would be above the forward league average.
That said, if we take a look at the top goal scorers in the league the shooting % is markedly higher than the league average across the board. In fact, only 13 of the top 100 goal scorers had shooting % lower than the 10.45% average for forwards alone. Out of the top 30 goal scorers only Kessel (9.8%) and Ovechkin (8.7%) were less than 10.5%.
One of the most important numbers that stands out to me is the average shooting of the 30+ goal scorers: 14.03. This is important as it stands to reason that players that score more goals also score more often on their shots – hence the term, “sniper”.
I think that after Butler got his bearings in the big league he showed he could create scoring opportunities on his own and coupled with significantly more time on the PP, plus time with better players (Spezza) your estimate of 3 shots a game is attainable. If we take into account that Butler may slip down on his shooting % (let’s say by 1.5%) that leaves him with 12.2% shooting and on 246 shots that puts him bang on 30 goals. Personally I don’t know why his shooting % HAS to go down, especially as the PP should give him some better looks and if he gets some chemistry with Spezza then he may have some tap-ins but for the purpose of this discussion I will concede it.
As for the talk of playing a full season – Butler played 100+ games last year and actually got better and more consistent as the season wore on so I don’t think that is as big an issue as some feel.
Lastly on Ovechkin: he has led the league by a wide margin in shots almost each year he has played – last year was no exception as he led the league once again and directed 367 shots on net. That obviously helped him score 32 goals with the 336th ranked shooting percentage (which was bang on the average of 8.7%) but it also underlines how skewed shooting percentages can be. Ovechkin gets time on the point during the Caps PP so he isn’t in the best scoring position and we all know how often he wastes shots from bad angles so that drops his shooting % as well.
Was fun to try and argue against your post – took a while to gather those numbers!
BahbeeButlaaaaaaaAAAAAHHHHHHHHH
I just want that name to be said repeatedly over the SBP PA system. He has a great name for hockey.
Or professional wrestling, come to think of it.
Love the analysis TGPig
And wish I could give a good response right now but I have to leave for camping and won’t be able to respond until Monday night at some time.
One quick note though – if you take away his early season 0’s (his first nine games) then he actually has a 17.2% scoring percentage…second 50 goal scorer here we come!!!
I wrote a fan post similar to this one towards the end of the season
At the time I used his points per game forecast on his projected points, and asked if 30 was reasonable. I think it is in our nature as Sens fans to be slightly conservative in our expectations after a few really tough years. I think I feel 22-25 goals out of Butler, and probably not more, but I think even 22 goals would be a huge success.
Butler
is going to be a stud. I came on this site the week butler signed out of UNH and have been telling you from the start. He’s done everything i’ve said he will so far, and that isnt going to change.
More cheers, more beers, thats it thats all.
The "stud" that he is
I put down BahbeeButlaaaaaaaAAAAAHHHHHHHHH as getting 20 goals in his first full season and more if he plays the 82 games with Spezza (25 goals) This from a player that hasn’t played a full season in the NHL. 25 will be a big successful season for someone like him.
What is your definition of a hockey “stud”? i.e how many goals and points for the coming season?
No love for Menthol Moose vid
I know it was in Spanish but come on…old Simpsons reference and…nothing?

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