Poaching salary: Could the Senators acquire Jeff Carter?
by Mark Parisi on Jun 9, 2011 12:33 PM EDT
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PrintWhen the Philadelphia Flyers acquired the rights to Ilya Bryzgalov, they also acquired a Giordian Knot of salary problems: Bryzgalov is reported looking for a 5-year, $30-32M deal. That represents a cap hit of around $6M at the cheapest.
If the salary cap rises to the expected $62M next year, according to CapGeek, the Flyers will have about $3.4M in space.
Let's assume the Flyers sign Bryzgalov. They certainly didn't trade for his rights to let him walk. Signing him means that other players (and more specifically, their cap hits) must be moved. As we know from the recent Jason Spezza discussions, the Ottawa Senators are in desperate need of a winger and a second line center. That's where Jeff Carter comes in.
Carter just signed an 11-year, $58M deal that gives him a reasonable cap hit $5.2M a year. Could the Senators absorb such a contract? Easily. The team currently has $14M in cap space, and should enter the next season with around $17M in space before signings, assuming the cap rises to the expected level. More importantly, Daniel Alfredsson, who is approaching retirement and only has two years left on his current contract, has a cap hit of $4.875M a year. Any cap rise between acquiring Carter and Alfredsson's imminent retirement would offset the $300K gap between them -- making Carter's salary a zero-sum game for the Senators.
In terms of production, Carter peaked in 2008-09 with 84P (46G, 38A). Since then, he's produced 61P (33G, 28A) in 74 games and 66P (36G, 30A) in 80 games. He's clearly capable of delivering production -- his numbers are in line with some quality names -- and would make an ideal second line center. If the Senators are looking for more production from him, putting a former 40-goal scorer on Jason Spezza's right side (a position Carter is very comfortable playing) seems like a good plan.
Carter is currently 26, which means that his 11-year contract will expire when he's 37. Not ideal, but not a deal-breaker, either. Carter wouldn't be the first forward to play beyond the age of 35. His size and relatively injury-free history are positives when looking at longevity.
Rumors are swirling in Columbus of a possible deal -- and that price is expected to be a top-10 pick plus top-six forward. Ottawa could easily pay that by packaging the sixth overall pick with Nick Foligno (coming off a 14G, 20A season that made him third on the team in scoring. Yes, really.) or Peter Regin. The return they'd get is a versatile, two-way, scoring forward in the prime of his career capable of filling one of the team's two biggest needs -- and they'd still have Nashville's first round choice plus three second round picks to maneuver in the draft with. If the Senators are serious about getting better, it's a move they need to consider.
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I voted no, but not because I value the pick more
But because if we are trading it, I’d rather use it to get a winger for Spezza to play with rather than another centre.
While we of course need a 2nd line centre, I want a first line sniper more.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I think Carter is capable of filling that role as well, though
That’s why he appeals to me
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I think
much like Parisi,
that Carter can be a top winger for Spezza, a legit 35 goal man.
Cap hit is reasonable, though 11 years is risky.
However, if he remains healthy and puts up ~300 goals in those 11 years,
that 5.2 cap hit (reasonable today) will only look fantastic years from now.
That #6 pick may never amount to a top liner, though it should produce a solid second line player.
Throwing in Regin would be fine for me. Foligno, however, has only scratched his surface. I fear for another Vermette type guy who emerges as a producer somewhere else.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Jun 10, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Are you insane Mark?
11 years and a NTC! Fuck that.
by Alexander Calloway on Jun 9, 2011 12:51 PM EDT reply actions
The length doesn't scare me as much as other people, I guess
Maybe I’m more of a gambler who doesn’t have a fear of commitment?
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But you told me not to bet using my probability model!
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by Adnan on Jun 9, 2011 1:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I told you not to bet on things you can't control!
I feel, especially when it comes to team building, that at some point, you have to just bite the bullet and commit to a guy. I had no problems with the Heatley or Spezza contracts for that reason. But if you’re going to make a financial commitment to a guy, you’ve got to make a commitment to surrounding them with talent as well… otherwise you’re just giving away money.
In either case, I think there’s a difference between gambling on building a team when you have a say in who you add and something in which you’re a spectator. Know what I mean?
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I have a problem with the Heatley contract
But sadly I can’t go back in time and force them to put in a no douchebag clause.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Man, no kidding
If I gave a player a NTC, I’d demand a clause making a concession if they asked for a trade — either eliminating the NTC entirely or limiting it to a small list of teams.
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I think it should be a general principle that your NTC is deemed waived if you publicly demand a trade.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Agreed, that seems like common sense to me
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That's valid but here is what I say
Once Murray trades/signs for a player, he can’t really control it. The player will play how he plays. Murray can trade the player away if he struggles, but he won’t likely get similar value back.
Similarly, if I think I am going to lose a particular, I can always bet on the other side now and partially recover my losses.
Anyway, I really wish everything could be quantified.
Quantify vocal leadership! Find a relationship between speeches in locker room and points earned. In fact, add the decibel level of the speech as a factor too.
Everything is quantifiable in theory. :D
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i sometimes disagree with you
but i would do either of those deals in a heartbeat. i cant believe how many no votes there are. i would trade regin AND foligno plus the pick for carter.
you guys really think strome or zibenjad are gonna be better than carter?
guys a stud. canadian olympian. score 50 with spezza. both hit 90 points. sens in the playoffs this year. no joke folks.
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think the reluctance is based on any criticism of Carter
Just on the fact that his contract runs for another 10 years and will cost over $5M per season. That makes him the core around which we will build the team—is Carter the guy we want to be that guy?
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 10, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
He didn't make that commitment with us, though
He made it with another franchise.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
So wait - if a player signs a contract with a team and has a NTC
But gets traded, they then no longer have a NTC for the remainder of that contract?
That may seem obvious, but I had no idea.
No they still do
Richards still has an NTC with Dallas for example even though he waived it for Tampa Bay to trade him.
I think Peter was just saying Carter committed to Philadelphia when he signed it.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
No
No no no no no
Keep the picks. We did not trade away big contracts on non-first-line players just to then trade those picks for more non-first-line players with big contracts. Also I would not wish Philadelphia on either Nick Foligno or (especially) Peter Regin.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
its only one pick and its for a definite first liner if you play him on the wing.
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I voted yes.
Carter is a good player that produces, and for some reason I think he would do really well with Spez. We would still have the 21st overall pick, and could possibly move up to 14th or 15th with that and get a guy like Mark McNeill.
But who knows? Couturier or Strome could end up being way better (and cheaper).
Yeah, weighing the known vs. the unknown here is fun
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Absolutely not
Risk-reward is just too bad for an 11 year contract.
Absolutely not.
If we took Jeff Carter, we’d be doing Philly a favour. This isn’t a trade, this is a salary dump, plain and simple.
We’re doing them enough just taking that long contract off their hands, and I’m not even sure that’s a good choice. I wouldn’t offer anything back – expiring contract maybe, but not picks.
Then we wouldn't get him
Yeah, Philly is in a pickle, but they don’t have to give Carter away—there are other teams out there who would be interested in trading for him, and are willing to give up real assets in exchange.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
If another team is willing to give up picks and prospects, go for it.
I wouldn’t advocate for it. It’s obvious who is in a position of strength here. If Philly wants to sign Bryzgalov, then they have to trade someone or dump salary.
Philly has fairly deep pockets. They could always demote someone to the minors to clear salary. Also, does anyone know if that jerk-off Pronger is retiring yet?
That's fine. But I don't think you give them anything back.
Picks and prospects are too valuable in the salary cap-era.
Yeah, I am reconsidering my proposal below of #21 + Foligno. Maybe Foligno and a second rounder from Chicago or Boston. Of course if they want Kuba then we would really have the basis for getting a deal done! :)
I think we'd get outbid with that offer
But if we could pull it off… that would be a huge win.
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Doesn't matter
Pronger’s contract was a 35+ deal, so it will count against the cap whether or not he retires. Those suckers!
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly.
we are in a position of strength, they have to trade someone. thats how you get jeff carter without giving up an equal asset.
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Somebody will pay top dollar for Jeff Carter. That much we know. It’s just a question of if the Flyers are stupid enough to do it or not. (As you might guess, I don’t want them to trade Jeff Carter.)
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by Travis Hughes on Jun 10, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
How would you like them to make room for Bryzgalov?
Is there a reasonable alternative to dumping Carter?
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 10, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Presumably it's by dumping multiple smaller salaries
Like the Hawks did last year.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 10, 2011 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d rather them not sign Bryzgalov, honestly. But they’re going to, so I’d rather they drop Versteeg or Hartnell.
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by Travis Hughes on Jun 10, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
the cap hit is only 5.2 a year!
thats why the term is so long. sure its probably a bad deal the last couple years but for the first 8 or 9 thats a terrific cap hit.
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 3:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that’s how we at BSH mostly see it — a discount in the near term, with the knowledge that it will be a bad deal in 8 years, but who can really care about what happens eight years from now?
And I agree with Peter above — if there’s a pure salary dump, it will be someone like Hartnell, not someone like Carter. A Carter trade would have to fetch a major return — he was arguably the best player on the Flyers this year, facing the toughest competition and producing at a very high level.
Yes on the Basis of a One-Two Punch
Id rather have the depth for two all-star centers then the perpetual black-hole that the Leafs have had since the lockout. Its hard enough having one legitimeant 1st-line center let alone two.
Talented Depth at center is huge in the eastern conference (See Pittsburgh, Boston and of course Philly.)
I would never take a contract that long with a NTC
even if it was one of the leagues true all stars, you never know whats going to happen with their health or productivity. Its too risky. Just think how well Di Pietro was playing when he got signed.
Considering health is an inherent risk every time a player skates, what kind of length would you be comfortable with?
And how much does talent matter? Would you not commit long-term to Crosby or Ovechkin because DiPietro got hurt?
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Health is a greater inherent risk when you cant get
out of it because of a NTC. And talent is a risky game to play with too, take a look at lecavalier who has somewhat reinvented himself but is still grossly overpaid compared to when he originally signed the contract as one of the top goal scorers in the league. I’m not against committing to stars like crosby and ovechkin long term, Im against giving them NTC….and lets be honest, jeff carter is not crosby or ovechkin.
No, and I'm certainly not comparing Carter to those two
Just curious how all the factors fall into place for you. I like hearing different perspectives.
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I'm not sure, its tricky..
If we were talking about the same thing but he was on contract for 5 or 6 years, I think we could deal with that. It just might be a tough pill to swallow paying him $5.2 million in the twilight of his career (lets be honest, he is no Alfie)
It kind of depends
But my maximum is about in line with what has been the historic max for the Senators organization: Seven or eight years, and only in extreme circumstances.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll admit that's generally the extent of my comfort level too
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I voted no, but I could be convinced
The length of that contract just scares me. If we’re sure he can play the wing capably, then it could be a good deal, but…
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2011 1:44 PM EDT reply actions
Screw the Flyers
Because they are a conference rival and because I hate them, I wouldn’t do any deal with the Flyers unless they were getting screwed. I’d be willing to do Nashville’s 1st + Foligno for Carter. I assume Philadelphia would not be interested, but if they were then that is the best they are getting.
carter
Just a reminder for all you assholes that don’t follow hockey Carter DOES NOT HAVE A NTC OR A NMC its an 11 year deal thats it again he DOES NOT HAVE A NMC OR A NTC so pls take him and yeah i m a Flyers fan
Um.
http://www.capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=740
“Full NTC (2012-13 through 2014-15); modified NTC (2015-16 through 2021-22)”
Please be more respectful when posting here
Carter does, in fact, have a full NTC clause that kicks in from 2012-15. It’s limited after that.
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Thanks for the reminder
I appreciate you civility, as well. Very respectable.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Um. Yeah.
Just so we’re all clear, this guy has never posted on BSH and doesn’t represent the rest of us.
I'd like to hear a balanced argument from you guys - who would you get rid of to sign Bryzgalov?
And what would you want back? I still maintain that a team taking any salary is doing you a favour – I’m not sure why we would give you a pick to help you out in addition to that.
If I have my choice, I would let Bryzgalov walk.
If I have to fit him in, I’m selling Hartnell (and getting peanuts in return, I know) to make something like this:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m)
Matt Read ($0.900m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m)
Andreas Nodl ($0.850m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Kris Versteeg ($3.083m)
Darroll Powe ($0.725m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Jody Shelley ($1.100m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m)
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Matt Carle ($3.437m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) / Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.500m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,051,932; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $348,068
I don’t like it, but nobody has offered me the GM job yet.
Really interesting
You’re not leaving any space for injuries, huh? Rolling New Jersey style!
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Pretty much. It’s been a CapGeek lineup fest at BSH. People also have moved Versteeg or Carle.
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Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Timonen has a huge hit
How reasonable is moving him? (Not to Ottawa; we already have a logjam at defense) I don’t know how well he performed versus his contract last year.
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This breaks my heart every time because he has been my favorite player since Nashville, but it’s something I have brought up as wishful thinking for cap relief. He has a NMC, so moving him, I think, would be difficult. I also don’t think the Flyers or he have much interest in parting ways.
He and Coburn faced the top competition this year. Timonen had a particularly brutal playoffs IMO, but had a good regular season. That said, he will never play up to that salary. Those 2007 contracts are pretty hard to live up to for most players…bad timing.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Agree completely.
It’s hard to fathom moving him — both emotionally and because of his NMC and cap hit and age — but he and Briere are both paid an awful lot…
I don't envy Holmgren's position
Seems like no matter what move he makes, he’s got to weaken one area of the team to strengthen another. If he subtracts too much, the improved goaltending won’t matter.
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Exactly. Most of us at BSH see this as a lateral move in the end. I also think this was heavily influenced by Snider. Given the way the transcript read from the Homer interview after he acquire Bryz’s rights, I don’t think Homer really believed in this move. I give him a lot of crap too, but I really feel this one came from the owner.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Injuries are for chumps.
More precisely, a couple hundred k is enough to cover the short-term callups. A longer injury means LTIR. But don’t get me wrong, I’m not liking this. It’s why I don’t want Bryzgalov — we have to part with too much elsewhere and I’d rather see if Bobrovsky can reproduce his solid rookie season.
no
He absolutely does not have a full ntc or a nmc i don’t care what cap geek says believe me when i tell ya and a partial ntc means oogots in todays nhl as do most real full ntc or nmc everyone can be moved seriously a partial ntc means nothing absolutely nothing
We're not the only ones thinking about this.
Freaking Bluejackets. And the article does say ‘no NTC’.
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/27694626/29913574
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Suck it, Toronto
Interesting comment on the article, too, with the commentor claiming that a top 6 forward for CBJ doesn't mean 'top 6' for Philly.
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It's true, though.
Case in point: Antoine Vermette. Never really fit in that well here, but you send him to Columbus and he’s thriving. Also Fisher – somewhere between a second and third (at least when the team was healthy) line player, but totally a top line guy in Nashville.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Please use the "reply" button to keep discussions in line
It’s also important to note that your opinion of the effectiveness of no-movement clauses doesn’t disprove their factual existence.
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So if we did get Carter, he'd play with us for 2011-12, then his NTC kicks in after next season?
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Right
Assuming we didn’t trade him before it did
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I don't know why you'd need to make that assumption
That was a dumb reply. Either way, when the 2012-13 season kicks off, he controls what team he plays for.
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HAH! I was conjuring up a reply to that.
I mean, if we didn’t trade Kovalev after one year of yelling “FLOAT IT!” at him from the audio booth….
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its not an opinion
look im not gonna reveal my source or in fact who i am and please pardon my run on sentences with no punctuation or spelling at this point please im typing with one hand due to a broken wrist so i don’t have the full use of a keyboard lol but seriously there isn’t a ntc
Not this year. So you're saying there's also no NTC when the 2012 season begins?
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
correct
his de al is an 11 year 58 million dollar deal thats it i did read however somewhere online that his deal has a partial 2012 ntc but in fact jeffy does not have any type of ntc nmc
capgeek's not the only source to mention it, then.
“The contract contains an unusual no-trade clause. Carter can give the Flyers a list of 10 teams he won’t accept a trade with, a source said. The no-trade begins 2012-13 and runs for three years. Then it is modified for the balance of the contract.
The Flyers originally were talking 10 years, but a source said by agreeing to go 11 years, Carter’s cap hit came in under $6 million – $5.27 million. That will give the Flyers slightly more flexibility to re-sign other players.”
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
So u see my point
what u posted is in fact correct with saying that then u cannot call this a ntc or a nmc cause he can be moved a ntc or nmc means that without a players permission a team cannot move him EX Danny Briere Scott Hartnell Kimmo timonen Chris pronger all have ntc nmc not Jeff carter
So it's 'unusual'. more of a Creative Control sort of thing.
Like Hulk Hogan keeping direction on how his character looked when wrestling. :P
I’m not sure if I’d like to have that on the Sens, after what we went through with Heater.
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
Well it's impossible to argue with someone who refuses to state their source
But according to Philadelphia’s GM:
Holmgren said the contract, which was agreed to late Friday night, has a limited no-trade clause.
Limited NO TRADE CLAUSE. The fact that it’s limited doesn’t make it any less of an NTC. Also, because I actually back up my arguments, here is my source.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
alfie
how can u call this a ntc if the said player can be moved without his damn permission pls tell me im waiting shit i live in nj and i think im gonna post that aliens have landed at the jersey shore maybe now all the NY jagoffs will stay home and not clog my area with traffic
I'm just quoting both the NHL and the Philly GM.
Limited NTC because he can dictate teams to which he can’t be traded. If you have a problem with the terminology, take it up with Bettman and Holmgren and please stop insinuating that I’m a liar.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Either way
Pls Ottawa or someone take carts and his contract off the flyers hands we need someone to show up in the playoffs ex mr Briere and for the record nobody called u a liar girl
I know you didn't call me a liar.
But comparing my post to announcing that aliens have landed isn’t exactly a nice comparison. Also that’s why I used the word insinuating.
But seriously, only way we’re trading for Carter is if Philly’s willing to trade him for Filip Kuba.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
na
I was sying aliens have landed in hopes it would keep all the new yorkers away from the jersey shore lol the traffic is crazy this time of year anyway na on that trade ahhhh but i guess this is why we are not nhl gm’s or owners ha
Are you kidding? If I could pull off that trade, I'd be the greatest GM in the history of this team!
Both franchises!
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I don't know if Philly would consider you great once they saw Kuba play
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nope
She is rite if she could pull that trade she would be the greatest but i don’t think mr snider or mr holmgren are that easy lol
You know how I feel about Philly.
Also it’d be their own fault for trading for a guy they haven’t seen play recently.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Mysterious insinuations aside, it seems like you're debating semantics here
Starting in 2012, there are teams Carter can’t be traded to, right?
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10
10 teams of his discretion that he cannot be traded too that is hardly a ntc wrong or rite
I'll give you that it's not a NMC
But it IS an NTC, it’s just limited to 10 teams.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Again, that's nothing but semantics
I don’t have any interest in arguing the meaning of “no trade clause” with you. The fact is that starting in 2012, there’s only 20 teams Carter can be traded to. Let’s move on.
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no problem
moving on i just felt i needed to make my point thats all
Looking at these articles, it's amazing how fast teams can really change from
“He’s an integral part of our future” to “dangling tasty trade bait”.
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That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
Not sure how tasty the bait is
Considering he’s past his peak and it’s an 11 year deal.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I don't think he's past his peak yet
He should actually hit it this year if statistics are to be believed.
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I guess I should have said his production is declining.
Based on the numbers above, anyway.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Seems that way
I’d like to see him on Spezza’s wing. He was still the leading goal-scorer for the Flyers last year. I bet he could hit 50.
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If only we could rent him for a year or two of that deal.
But I’m not intrigued enough to gamble on being able to offload that leviathan of a deal if he’s not spectacular.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
why
why rent lets be realistic ottawa hasn’t been a playoff caliber team in quite sometime so why rent carter till his supposed ntc kicks in
How do you define "quite some time"?
Ottawa made the playoffs two years ago and made the Stanley Cup Finals for years ago.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
ok
the flyers have Missed the playoffs what 1 time in the past 15 years went to the cup final last year oh and made history also last year coming back fro 0-3 and 0-3 in game 7 to win pls ottawa is hardly playoff caliber bub
Philadelphia's playoff successes don't have anything to do with when Ottawa made the playoffs last
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How do you define "playoff caliber"?
Reason would define it as of the caliber to make the playoffs, in which case the Senators were playoff caliber just two short years ago. If you want it to be more than that, well, the Senators are just four years removed from being the closest thing to the Stanley Cup Champions. I realize that these small victories aren’t really something to be proud of, but you seem pretty proud of your team for fairly average performance over the last 15 years.
Also, it’s worth noting that in two years of that run you mentioned, the Senators were the team that ended the Flyers’ playoff run.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2011 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Because he's either peaked or will in the next year or two
I agree with Mark that it could be interesting to see him as Spezza’s winger, but who knows how many of the 2011 Calder Cup champions will be on our roster in a couple of seasons (my guess: several), and one of them could easily be fighting Carter for the spot on Spezza’s wing, at which point we’re stuck with a long deal on a guy who’s in his decline and gradually getting muscled out. There are only a few people who I’m willing to keep when their game is declining, and Daniel Alfredsson he is not.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
im starting to hate this idea of peak
should we try to have a team entirely composed of 27 year olds?
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 4:08 AM EDT up reply actions
No, of course not
But considering where the team is right now (i.e., just starting a rebuild), I think we have enough players who have peaked. There’s no sense in picking up a deal that’s that long when his best years will be our crappiest as a team.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
He hasn’t peaked yet. You’re whole definition of peaked is flawed in Carter’s case…please refer to Eric or my comment below.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
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In fairness, he started with “he’s either peaked or will in the next year or two”, and is saying the team won’t be good this year or next and so the player isn’t an ideal fit for them.
And that’s fine…I just expect her to then say that Spezza really isn’t the right fit for them either by that logic. Plus, you know, he hasn’t peaked.
There are only a few people who I’m willing to keep when their game is declining, and Daniel Alfredsson he is not.Which Carter won’t be for quite some time. For that to be one of the reason put on not trading for Carter, unless that reason is a concern starting at 2018, is ridiculous.
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Spezza is essentially our captain elect at this point
If we had a single other person on this team who would be feasible for the C in a couple of seasons, I’d be on board with a trade for him – assuming we get fair return, but I do believe someone would give us a solid deal for him. My problem with trading Giggles is solely the leadership void that it leaves on the team given the fact that we’re very much a grow-from-within organization and that the general fanbase will want the next captain to be a name they’re familiar with. I realize all the arguments for considering other players (like Gonchar or even Carter), but after Alfie it’s going to be difficult for the majority of fans to accept anyone, let alone a player who’s new to the team.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I saw your comment
But still I’m not willing to bet that he won’t peak in the next year or two assuming he hasn’t already. Still not good considering where this Ottawa team is in the rebuild.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
He should be a great value on his cap hit for the next 8 years as a player who can face the oppositions best, in poor starting positions, still move the play forward, do well in the possession metrics, and produce 30G+ and 30A+…if that isn’t good enough, then you are a very demanding fan.
And once again, then Spezza is equally useless in the rebuild. If the rebuild won’t be there for another 8 years, then fine. Also, maybe by acquiring Carter, that rebuild goes a little quicker. I’m happier you don’t want him because it would be a huge mistake for the Flyers to let him go; players like him don’t grow on trees and don’t come at that great of value as far as contracts go.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Depending on the length of the rebuild...
Spezza’s skills will be wasted, or, he will be “useless”, as you put it. That’s the reasoning Mark recently put forward to argue that unless we ramp up the pace of the rebuild, now is the time to trade Jason Spezza: While his value is high, before his production tails off, and since any points he scores will be wasted on a non-playoff team.
That was the argument, anyway.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 11, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not trying to say Spezza is “useless” in that sense, and I get the argument. I’m just saying if Alfie’s position is that Carter is of no value for the rebuild, neither is Spezza.
I don’t disagree with the argument in either direction, it’s a matter of opinion. But I would think if a person is for keeping Spezza around, they would also be for bringing in a player like Carter. And if they feel Carter is useless for a rebuild, I don’t see what value they would see in Spezza for the rebuild.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
I'd also like to take a second and point out the irony of that question
Given that you practically begged someone to take him off of Philly’s hands above, but are now suggesting that he’s totally worth keeping for a long time to come.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
where
where did i say he was worth keeping for years to come all i said was why went him look carts is a high caliber player that yes i would like to trade but only cause if he is traded the flyers can finally solve the goaltending issue here and thats the only reason i would want him to go thats it
"Why rent Carter" sounds like you're suggesting it would be a bad idea to only have him for a few years
Oh Captain, my Captain!
it would
i would if he was going to help your team win a cup but lets face cater isn’t going to help ottawa win a cup or even a series past the first round simply he does not show up in the playoffs
The 46-goal season was an anomaly — he’s a career 10.9% shooter and shot 13.5% that year.
It’s not so much a decline as a random unreproducible single-year spike. This year he took on the toughest competition on the team and still put up the second-best goal and assist numbers of his career.
I didn't realize there was such a big gap in his shooting percentage
Any theories on the cause, or is it totally chalked up as an anomaly?
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No, his shooting % during his “break out” year was just unsustainably high.
Carter, who you’d be lucky to have by the way (I get you don’t like long contracts, but he’s an elite two way forward who can play center or the wing as he did this year next to Giroux), plays extremely tough minutes (Corsi Rel Qoc and Zone Starts), still dominates Corsi, and can be counted on as a 30 goal scorer. The guy is pretty elite, and any fan of the Flyers that would be willing to let him walk has a biased opinion of him (what has he done in the playoffs) or doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
But I get the whole dislike for the contract, but he isn’t in his decline. He should be great value in that contract for at least the next 8 years…which brings you to the weaker portion of his NTC which might not be difficult to move.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
In the world of pro sports, the future is always now
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The flyers
The flyers actually need to move him to sign bryzgalov not just cause of the cap hit but because philly is way stcked with centers and in need of true winger and obviously a goalie damn Holmgren for not pulling the trigger last year for thomas for jeffy
He played the majority of the year on Giroux’s wing, he was not a center this year. He also had arguably his best year of his career (you know if you consider his zone starts and competition he faced).
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
You get a 3.0/5 for effort, but a 1.5/5 for chemistry. Skim the dude’s comments above and just Bob him.
I did, but Bob only works on BSH.
I just don’t want Sens fans who aren’t that familiar with Carter or the Flyers situation believing everything this guy is writing.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Don't worry, we tend to believe rational arguments over "I got sources, man"
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 10, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That was hilarious.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
What's "Bob"ing, anyway?
Presumably some BSH inside joke about Bobrovsky?
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Yeah, a commentor, The Dark started it. There was this corny skit that they did. Bob was interviewed by Steve Coates (guy in the glass for Flyers games), it started with, “What’s your nickname?’….”Bob"…then went from there. Since Bob still didn’t know the language for the most part, they played to that, and he just responded to every question, “Bob”. It was fairly funny as far as those sort of things go.
So now when we get trolls or have people just spitting out nonsense, everyone will respond “Bob”.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
That's pretty funny
I just ban trolls here. I’m not the creative one.
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Yeah, that always works too. We were getting a lot of criticism for not being inclusive enough, so the Bob thing can segue to understanding and inclusion; you know kumbayah and all that good stuff haha. However, most of the time, it’s just part 1 in the 3 step banning process.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Uh, we had stupid contracts like this before Kovalchuk.
Ovechkin comes to mind.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
true
so true but ilea’s contract real screwed the nhl cant we just get rid of bettman and the cap at the same time
Makes sense if...
If Philly is desperate then we get him for less than the 6th overall pick. We hold the hammer. Same goes for other teams. Everyone will want to gouge the Flyers. So the idea that we have to give up the 6th makes no sense. Can we be outbid? By whom? Anything Columbus or Atlanta (for example) can offer we can outdo. And it isn’t likely they would max out an offer as they are probably wary of the term as much as anyone else should be. The wildcard, IMO, is the NTC. IIf it is full for only 3 or 4 years then its ok. But I say give no more than the Nashville pick, and a non-roster player. Just MO.
I don't know
True North might actually be willing to put up a bunch of cash to try and acquire a big name to their new team, and with them the long deal might be an asset instead of a liability.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Theoretically we could be outbid by teams picking in the top five
But all it takes is for one team to offer a higher first than 21 (Which, of course, is Nashville’s) and the next best pick we have to offer is number 6. Every team is going to be looking to gouge the Flyers, but there’s no reason the Flyers can’t play those teams against each other to drive up the price. A team desperate for a center — like Toronto or Columbus — could be willing to drive up the bidding to a top 10 pick (well, not Toronto, heh). Then the question becomes are we willing to beat that offer?
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They are relatively desperate, but they have other options besides trading Carter. Versteeg would go in a salary dump before Carter would. They only trade Carter if they’re getting his worth in return. Or, one can hope. It is the Flyers we’re talking about.
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by Travis Hughes on Jun 10, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Short or long sighted?
I guess that depends on whether the goal of getting Carter is for the long term or short. In a way he could do both. But I would say that for the “Thrashers” a short term priority is a bad thing. I recall a couple of years ago they traded a lot of future for the short term priority of making the play-offs. Much good it did them. I would be hesitant to embrace that kind of thinking in the new market just becase it is already hockey-loving.
Good point all the same though.
Reply fail?
If so, I think it’s solely because the team will be relocating. I assume that a lot of players will be iffy about moving to Winnipeg because, let’s face it, pretty much no one wants to live in Winnipeg. But considering that they’re trying to establish a market that will outlast the novelty of the first couple of seasons and will make people brave the Manitoba winter (which I witnessed for a weekend in February once and I can assure you is miserable), it seems like both a short-term (he should good for the next couple of years at least) and long-term (because he’s locked up for so long) plus. Assuming True North is willing to spend the money to get him after just spending all that cash to buy the team.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Good points
The balance will be in the hands of Cheveldayoff. How does he strike you?
The only thing I know about him so far is that I don't know how to pronounce his name yet.
I’m not a good person to ask!
Oh Captain, my Captain!
6th overall + Foligno/Regin would be highway robbery
Which means the Flyers don’t do it.
That would be a dumbass move on our part.
I still maintain that the 6th overall is not worth trading for anything less than either trading up in a package deal.
I think you're overvaluing the pick a bit
It’s not historically a gold mine for gamebreakers.
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It's still the best pick we've had in a decade
And I think most are hoping that the team’s performance will improve to the point where we won’t see another pick that low in a long, long time (unless it’s acquired by trade).
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2011 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm hoping the same thing
But does the value of the pick to the team internally trump its market value? I’d argue that it doesn’t. We probably won’t be landing the savior of the franchise here.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 10, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
No the internal value definitely shouldn't outweigh the market value
But you risk alienating a fanbase that doesn’t pay as much attention to stats and doesn’t know much about the prospects because I’d bet that a lot will equate trading our #6 for a long-term deal on an older guy to the Gonchar and Kovalev quick fix signings. Now I know they’re totally different, but I’m talking about the people who were livid over the Fisher trade and are still convinced we were vastly underpaid for him.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Interestingly enough, this was Derek Zona's reasoning to me on why the Oilers wouldn't consider a trade for Spezza
Their ownership has sold them on a rebuild, and giving away the top pick flies in the face of any rebuilding claims.
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Agreed.
But the value in those players isn’t necessarily their skills, but their cheapness. A solid second line winger who can give us 20-30 goals a year for a rookie salary is awesome and frees up a lot of cap space for a more expensive first line guy. And with a rookie salary for 3 years, and maybe a middling contract after that, it gives us flexibility to go after a more expensive FA signing. I don’t think throwing away a (relatively) high pick for an 11 year, $5.25 mill contract is worth it. Especially when the 2012 and 2013 FA classes include some pretty talented guys around that price point
2012: http://www.capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2012&team_id=-1&position_id=-1&fa_type_id=2
2013: http://www.capgeek.com/free_agents.php?year_id=2013&team_id=-1&position_id=-1&fa_type_id=2
Hell, 2013 has Corey Perry and Getzlaf both available for $5.3 mill each, and they’d be 26 at the time – prime time to be poached. Granted, I hated them in the Finals, but they’d be good to consider.
They wouldn't be 26 at the time, they'd be 28
Capgeek’s age numbers reflect what the players currently are, not what they will be at that date. Alfie being listed at 38 in 2013 should have been your first clue.
The problem that I have with your justification in value here is not that it’s incorrect — a rookie will obviously be cheaper — it’s that it’s unrealistic. You’re talking about saving money for a situation that will never occur. Who was the last 30-goal scorer under the age of 28 to hit the free agent market? I honestly don’t know.
Kovalchuck was 28 and he signed a 15-year deal with his current team. Hossa was 30 when he signed his deal, and it was for 12 years.. Havlat was 28 and signed for 6 years. Even Matt Moulson was locked up before he could reach free agency — he’ll be 30 when his current deal ends.
You’re essentially talking about saving money now so the team can give a contract of similar length to an older player in free agency, because players in their prime do not hit the open market in the salary cap era. What’s the difference between Perry/Getzlaf at 28 for 8 years and Carter at 26 for 11 years except that the Senators lose two years of production by waiting for those players to hit free agency — assuming they’re not simply re-signed by their current teams (by far the most common outcome)?
Players at the talent level we’re discussing have to be developed or traded for. Hoarding cash in the hopes that one just happens to hit the market in their prime years is not sound thinking — hope is not a strategy.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 10, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
if players like that do hit the market
it is because they want to cash in on an epicly massive contract – which also makes them less than ideal targets.
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 4:25 AM EDT up reply actions
and you figure that because perry makes $5.3 now
that he will be available on the free agent market for the same amount after winning a hart trophy?
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 4:22 AM EDT up reply actions
in fact
jeff carter is unconditionally better than every one of those players was or will be with the single exception of mikko koivu.
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Have you guys seen how Jeff Carter shoots the puck?
Of course I make that trade if I’m Bryan.
However, I start with #21, Brian Lee, and Nick Foligno.
They wouldn't want salary coming back though.
In order to sign Bryz, they need to dump around $3mill or more.
more actually
because as close as they already are to the cap they also have to sign 5 more players.
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I know, it's just wishful thinking.
Then again it does have the benefit of finally getting rid of Brian Lee so I guess I could deal with it even sans Kuba.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I feel sorry for Lee.
The dude has been on the wrong side of things from the start. He couldn’t play in the AHL, couldn’t break the roster in the NHL – he was stuck in no mans land. But with more time he started playing better (when Carkner went down for injury), so I think he just needs a break, and a team that is willing to take a chance on him.
I know I sound like a broken record saying it
But I really just think that he needs to go to another team. Somewhere without all of the history of disappointment after such high expectations. He’s not a bad player, but there’s just too much baggage here and I think he’ll do better with a clean slate somewhere else.
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Meh, barely.
I only associate him with the Blackhawks, so I don’t mind having selective amnesia about his background. Frankly I’m not thrilled with picking up a former Flyer either.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I voted yes...
I really like Jeff Carter and I feel that he hasn’t hit his “peak” yet and would be very good on our rebuilding team…. AND for us to get the best out of Spezza. Carter is also versatile, so he could play a few roles on the team. Just as I would have said yes to Parise as well. Length of contract and all that fun stuff does bother me as it is longer than I would like, but sometimes you need to accept some things if you feel the guy is right.
BUT having said that, I would try first with a different package before offering up our 6th overall. I would try the Nashville pick with a combination of two players. We all know that we have an abundance of 3rd line / 4th line players, so it should be an issue giving up 2 guys that may appeal to Philly.
OR I would try and see if this is a trade I could do on draft day. I don’t know how it works, or if it is even possible, but if I could wait and see which players I have left to choose from at 6th and then make my decision, I would go for that as well.
by Los Blancos Chicca on Jun 10, 2011 9:44 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t know if this was said somewhere else in the comments above, but I think we might also be forgetting that if $5.2M is reasonable today, it’s going to look even better in 10 years. If two-way forwards with 50 point ceilings go for about $4M-$5M today, if the cap keeps going up then in only a few years you could see guys like Mike Fisher getting $6M+. Carter could be a steal.
As for the 6th overall pick and Foligno for Carter, it’s steep, but sounds about right. I can see a team like Columbus being way more willing to pay that price than Ottawa, because having a bunch of top ten picks hasn’t helped Columbus much in the past. They want to win now. Ottawa, on the other hand, has already been throwing good money after bad these past few years and probably could use a little ELC action to help sooth Melnyk’s wallet.
Still, I’d do this deal. $5M is very reasonable, and will only get more so.
I need to apologize for my 14 year old sons antics on the sense site i happened to stumble on here and actually saw my name as a poster again sorry people. Not all flyers fans are as clueless as my bonehead kid,As far as his sources well lets just say they are in his head
Not a problem.
Would you trade Carter? What’s your perspective on the cap issue it appears the Flyers will be facing? Anyone you’d be willing to trade/buyout/bury in the minors?
Dang, I missed the Flyers fans!
It sounds like they’re all pretty high on Carter, but I wonder what they’d think of an offer of the sixth-overall pick and Foligno or Regin for Carter.
If anyone’s still around, what do you think of the offer?
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 10, 2011 8:55 PM EDT reply actions
Tell me more about Regin, I don’t know enough about him. Foligno and the 6th is a good starting point. But Foligno only has one more year before his RFA needs to be reupped which is fine, but not ideal. He is a young guy, played good comp, but with favorable zone starts. His Corsi Rel is so-so, but he is young. I keep hearing this year’s draft class isn’t great, and there is a big drop off after Larsson…so that #6 doesn’t have the same appeal to me from that standpoint (but admittedly, I haven’t done much research given the Flyers hatred of first round picks). I will say, I like the idea of Foligno more than Voracek (the rumor that keeps coming out of Columbus) because I see Foligno being able to handle the defensive assignments better, and then I would hope that JVR could continue to progress offensively.
I will add, I was a big supporter of the whole trade Carter push during last off season, because frankly, I expected a bigger raise for Carter, and didn’t think he would adjust to the wing so well. Since then, he had a excellent year at wing, was their leading goal scorer, and did show facing the toughest competition on the team with tough zone starts. He also signed a very cap friendly contract that should be excellent value for at least the next 8 years (until Jeff turns 34) IMO. SO I’ve gone from a, yes, let’s get rid of our RFA center because we have so much cap space tied up in that position, to,if you trade Carter I will club baby seals. So I admit I would ask a lot for him given Homer has other options for trades if he wants to sign Bryz (meaning, no Carter isn’t available unless you wow me).
This probably wasn’t helpful, but it’s late, and I just got back from my little cousin’s graduation.
Teaching Travis how to Dougie since 2011.
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Regin's a wild card
He’s got higher potential than Foligno on the offensive side of the puck, but the challenge for him will be reaching it, and producing with consistency. He took a significant step back last season, but still has the tools to recover from it and begin producing offensively as he did two years ago.
His ceiling is likely as a second-line centre, but if he doesn’t reach that, I really doubt he’s physical enough to anchor a third or fourth line. So there’s more risk if you were to choose Regin over Foligno, but there’s also the potential for more reward.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 11, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
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