Free Agent Frenzy preview, Pt. 2: Who might the Sens grab?
This is the second of a two-part series. Click here to see the first part, where I look for the holes in the Senators' roster.
In yesterday's post, I noted that while the Senators were full on the blueline, they could use another second or third line forward to shore up their offense. The Senators are also in need of a backup goalie for Craig Anderson. With that in mind, who's available?
Backup Goalies, aka the Battle of the Former Senators
At the same time as Pascal Leclaire and Curtis McEllhinney join the long list of former Senators goaltenders, a lengthy list of former Ottawa keepers will hit the market: Brian Elliott, Ray Emery, Patrick Lalime, Martin Gerber, and Alex Auld are all free agents on July 1st.
Other available backups include Peter Budaj, Marty Turco, Jeff Deslauriers, Thomas Greiss, Jose Theodore, Johan Hedberg, Brian Boucher, and Ty Conklin.
Unlikely: Emery, Gerber, and Elliott were all in the doghouse with Senators fans when they left Ottawa, so it's unlikely that any of them would return. Lalime's play has deteriorated as he's aged, so I don't foresee his return. Budaj and Anderson had a miserable year together last year, so I doubt the Senators want to reunite that duo.
Possible: Marty Turco is intriguing, if only because he's an Ontario guy who could add some age and experience to a very young Ottawa Senators team. However, his play has declined and his salary demands might be too high simply because of his name. Conklin might be a good buy-low candidate, as his poor numbers last year (3.32 GAA, .881 GGA) are out of place with his preceding three seasons.
Darren's pick: Alex Auld. He was a very solid backup with Ottawa, posting a .911 save percentage in 43 games when he was forced into a starter role because of Gerber's struggles. He had another good year this past season with Montreal, posting a .914 save percentage behind Carey Price. Of course, this all depends on how Auld feels about a return to Ottawa, where he was traded a year into his two-year contract.
Adnan's pick: Given the comments by Bryan Murray that the backup goalie will remain a backup should Craig Anderson be injured, i.e. Robin Lehner will be called up as a temporary starter, this rules out some candidates such as Ray Emery or a Marty Turco. I too would go with Alex Auld, as he is likely not to command too much money and would accept a backup role and provide decent performance.
Mark's pick: Since my primary choice of Pascal Leclaire is beyond unrealistic, I'd go with Marty Turco. Given that Murray said we'd have a 5-seed team last year, and that he'd be drafting an NHL-ready player, I feel like his comments must be taken with a grain of salt. I'd take Turco, who in my opinion is the most talented option, and then sort out the situation as the season progresses. There's no need to paint ourselves into a corner just because we're high on Lehner and Anderson at the moment.
Peter's pick: I'm going with Johan Hedberg. He's a backup, but he's a good one, and at 38 years old, he won't be looking for a lot of money or a lot of term. But he's still got some good hockey left in him: Last season, Hedberg had a career-low 2.38 GAA and a very respectable .912 save percentage.
Forwards
Some of the more talked about names in the forward free agent crop are Brad Richards, Simon Gagne, Tim Connolly, Michael Ryder, Tomas Fleischmann, Ville Leino, and Jussi Jokinen. But there are also some other players who the Senators might be interested in, such as Scottie Upshall, Eric Belanger, Brendan Morrison, Jamie Langenbrunner, Tyler Kennedy, Anthony Stewart, Matt D'Agostini, Erik Cole, Steve Sullivan, Sergei Samsonov, Ruslan Fedotenko, and Antti Miettinen. Also available are former Senators Alex Kovalev and Mike Comrie. Heh.
Unlikely: Pretty much all of the names in the first group, particularly Richards. If the price was right on Jokinen or Fleischmann, I'm sure the Senators would be interested, but given Brooks Laich's recent contract, I have a feeling that teams will have to pony up a lot of cash to get any of the bigger names. Even though the Senators have the cap space for any of these players, the team is in the middle of a rebuild and are trying to run a tight budget.
Possible: The Senators probably are interested in Kennedy (who always seems to score against the Sens), D'Agostini, and Stewart, but all three are young players who probably want long term contracts based on career years, which is a pretty big gamble. Miettinen, Belanger and Morrison will all get long looks because they are consistent 40-point guys, but all three of them have done so playing with better linemates than they are likely to see in Ottawa. Finally, there's a guy like Steve Sullivan, who is old enough that he'd probably only be looking for a relatively cheap one, maybe two year deal.
Darren's pick: I'm hesitant to sign anyone given the absurd contracts being handed out, but the Senators are really weak up front. In order to not get hamstrung with a terrible contract, if I need to pick one it'd likely be Eric Belanger. He's a centreman who is good for 35 points or so during a season, and while that doesn't sound impressive, it's better than most Senators managed last season. He also shouldn't come at too high of a price (unlike most others listed), which is something Murray should be looking for.
Adnan's pick: No one. The players available are either too expensive or not a significant improvement on the current options. In my mind, our top six at least at the start of training camp will be Jason Spezza, Nikita Filatov, Milan Michalek, Daniel Alfredsson, Bobby Butler and one of Peter Regin, Mika Zibanejad or Stephane da Costa. If the new signing isn't a great improvement, I would rather find out if Regin can bounce back and give him a chance to succeed. With so few options, and with so many teams having cap room, getting a free agent might prove expensive.
Mark's pick: Also no one. I don't expect the team to contend for the playoffs this year, so I'd rather take our lumps finding out if we already have a second-line center on our roster--and even if we find out Zibanejad is just a year away, adding a free agent just takes up a roster spot we won't need filled in a year's time. Now, if we're making an RFA offer to Stamkos...
Peter's pick: I'mma go right off the board and suggest we pick up Brendan Morrison. He's an older guy (35 years old) but he's still putting up points, scoring 43P in 66GP last season for a very impressive 0.65PPG average. Similar to Hedberg, he can still play good hockey, but he won't likely be costly in either term or dollars. He only made $725k last season, for crying out loud; that's less than Jesse Winchester.
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Stamkos
Agree with Mark here, if Stamkos isn’t signed by noon tomorrow, I would happily give up four 1st rounders for him in an offer sheet. You would have to think he will have offers from better teams though.
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by Adnan on Jun 30, 2011 8:34 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
How are you planning to add general depth and secondary scoring to the system? Trade more some picks and prospects? More offersheets for overpaid players (think EDM & Penner)? Draft and develop them while Stamkos’ contract runs? Pray that talented College & European FA will be available and succeed with your franchise?
Sorry, I’m not a fan of creating the Toronto Maple Leafs V2.0 in Ottawa. I just wait till next June and hope that Ottawa in a position to draft a player (#10), who is almost as good as Stammer, from Stamkos’ Junior Team.
Stamkos is no Kessel
He is probably the third best player in the world. And he is 21 years old. Four first round picks for him is excellent value. We got some offensive depth this year, and there is nothing stopping us from adding more after round one.
The argument that because the Leafs traded draft picks for a young scorer, then inherently it is always a bad idea, is flawed.
Being almost as good as Stamkos in junior is a long, long way from being almost as good as him in the NHL.
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by Adnan on Jun 30, 2011 9:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Stamkos would cost 4 first round draft picks in compensation
That is 4 players that should have top 6F top 4D potential.
I think it is probably safe to assume that our draft position in the next 4 years will be 5 – 10 next year, 10 – 15 the year following & 15 – 20 the next two years, which is roughly equivalent to the position we have drafted over the past 4 years.
So here is the deal. Trade Zibanejad, Runblad, Cowen & Karlsson for Stamkos. Those are the 4 guys we aquired over the last 4 years in the first round of the draft. (Traded the draft pick for Runblad last year). That doesn’t work for me. I’d rather have 4 ‘B+’ players than 1 ‘A+’ player.
That's a rather tilted way of looking at it
If Stamkos elevated the Sens to ~10th in the league (and that is not that optimistic a view), four first rounders at about that level are an extremely cheap price to pay.
Stamkos may not be generational talent, but he’s as close as there is available, and he’s only 21. Murray’s drafting over the last few years has been part luck and part excellence; the players are not a tremendous reflection of where they were drafted. For example, the #20 picks from 2005-2008 were Kenndal McArdle, David Fischer, Angelo Esposito, and Michael Del Zotto. Only one of those guys is an NHLer. The quality of guys picked late in the first round is a lot lower than you think. Even Cowen and Zibanejad are from being regular contributors at the NHL level.
by TheGuineaPig on Jun 30, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, I can't buy that argument.
You can’t just say that the #20 picks in these 4 years only yielded one player. You have to go by draft record of the individuals responsible for making the picks over their history, and much more importantly over their recent history.
1st Round Picks by Brian Murray:
Keith Primeau
Martin Lapointe
Radek Dvorak
Jeoffrey Lupul
Ryan Getzlaf
Cory Perry
Ladislav Smid
Erik Karlsson
Jared Cowen
Mika Zibanejad
2nd Round Gems:
Vyacheslav Kozlov
Chris Osgood
Kristian Huselius
& we hope:
Patrick Wiercioch
Jakob Silfverberg
Robin Lehner
Murray has a tremendous record of drafting. It may be nice to have Stammer here, however, the 4 1st round picks is too much for a team that is rebuilding. Bryan has spent the last 4 years trying to put some depth back in the organization and now you want to trade depth for Stamkos?
We just turned off that road.
We were a one line team with no prospects. How’d that work out for us recently?
Got us within 3 games of a Stanley Cup title
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I don't think having a loaded top line was why it went away though
We didn’t trade Vermette or draft picks for rentals to boost our top line.
If we get Stamkos, we still have several top six prospects in Silfverberg, Zibanejad, Puempel, Noesen, and anyone else we draft in rounds 2 and later.
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It went away because there was no talent to replace the departed.
We are in a salary cap world now. Even with the cap going up season after season. $12Mil/per (If thats what it takes) is way too much of your cap room. Meaning that when the players we have reach their potential & at the same time the end of their entry level contracts we can’t afford to pay them the $ they will command and there is no one to replace them. (See Chicago Blackhawks)
Murray's drafting did not get us within 3 games of a Stanley Cup title
It did, however, win Anaheim a Stanley Cup.
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by AlfieGirl on Jun 30, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ha, but having a loaded first line did get us within 3 games of a Cup
Which is what I was referring to, not Murray’s drafting.
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This is one of those "known vs. unknown" debates
There is, of course, no guarantee that any of those 1st round picks turn out to be as good as Karlsson (Mikachu, Cowen, and Rundblad are still techincally unknowns, though they appear on the path to panning out), much less as good as Stamkos.
One of the strongest arguments against trading Jason Spezza was the worry of the unknown—could we actually replace him through the draft? It’s by no means a sure thing.
Those who value the known quantity of Stamkos over the unknown potential will see the appeal of a trade, while those who value potential will not.
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Not a good comparison
1. Bryan Murray wouldn’t be making the 4 picks, so the quality of the lost picks should be based on Steve Yzerman’s track record.
2. You’re comparing 4 unknown draft picks to our best 4 first round draft picks after (except for Zibanejad) several years after they were drafted and seeing them work out. What if you chose Nick Foligno, Jim O’brien, Brian Lee and Andrei Meszaros – would you swap picks then?
If we were closer to a cup run where the lost picks were late in the 1st round, I think it would be a coup to grab Stamkos. Of course, at that point most teams wouldn’t have 20M+ of cap space to burn on a max $ offer sheet.
And the argument about not being able to find secondary scoring is weak. There are plenty of secondary scorers available on the UFA market, and some of the later draft picks/crapshoots actually pan out.
Easy there Joebo
The decision that needs to be weighed is: Keeping the picks – in which case Bryan Murray would be making the picks. Or giving up the picks & getting Stamkos.
Foligno, Lee & Meszaros were not Bryan Murray draft picks & O’Brien was picked from previous managements scouting staff. However, to answer your question, no you wouldn’t do that deal. But with BM’s track record of drafting, I like what he can do with 4 draft picks.
You get 30 goals from Spezza, 25 from Alfie & 50 from Stamkos. = 105 goals.
Last season we were the lowest scoring team in the league with 192 goals.
Look at the rest of the projected lineup. Should be good for another 100 goals combined. Good for another drafting position somewhere between 5-10th overall, sure, next year and the year after guys improve, you make the playoffs, maybe make a push in the playoffs. Now you’ve got Karlsson, Runblad, Lehner, Regin, Cowen, Wiercioch, Filatov, Zibanejad, Noeson, Puempel all up for contract renewal and the value of the CDN$ has dropped and thus so has the salary cap.
So now we lose one or two of those guys, but its ok cause Prince & JG Pageau are coming. But they aren’t as good as we had hoped, so we just need to sign a free agent. (Matt Cullen, Martin Lapointe, Alex Kovalev, Kuba, Gonchar…. ) can be signed for decent value, lets grab one of them for the stretch drive… we’ll give up a 2nd or 3rd rounder for them…..
We’ve seen this story before, no thanks. I’d rather develop the talent from within, and keep the 4 1st round picks.
Point taken
If we keep the pick, BM makes em.
That’s fine, if we stay the course I agree in 2-3 years we’ll be back in the playoffs and “competing” for the cup.
My opinion though, is that Sens won’t win a cup without at least 1 more elite forward. I’m talking someone like a Crosby/Ovechkin/Kesler/Thornton/St Louis/Parise type guy, and those guys aren’t generally available so you might consider an offer sheet like this if we were close to contending. (I know Boston won without an offensive guy like that but they did have the best goaltender in recent history putting on the best postseason goaltending performance in recent history.)
I don’t see us getting a top 3 draft pick again (unless we win the draft lottery) before we turn mediocre. So BM is going to have to get that guy in some other way, but don’t count on being able to trade a bunch of 2nd liners for him.
I would 100% agree with you
We need another elite talent.
We do not know if that possibly may be one of many prospects already in the system that bloom a little late:
Da Costa, Noeson, Puempel, Prince, Pageau, Filitov, Butler, Greening
Any one of these guys could suprise. & we should have a high draft pick next year too.
We’ll have to see.
If it were 2 years down the road and we had the cap space and nothing looking like it could be elite I would agree with throwing the offer sheet and seeing what happens.
I think we're on the same page now
But I’m not too optimistic that our current prospects will fill that hole. We’ll see
You forget to address my points in the first paragraph.
How are you planning to add general depth and secondary scoring to the system? Trade more some picks and prospects? More offersheets for overpaid players (think EDM & Penner)? Draft and develop them while Stamkos’ contract runs? Pray that talented College & European FA will be available and succeed with your franchise?
I think the assumption is that our current young players will provide that depth
We know Michalek (who is only 26) is a 20+ goal scorer. Zibanejad, Filatov, Butler, Silfverberg, Puempel, Da Costa, and even Noesen all have the look of promising players. It’s not unreasonable to think that at least one or two of those guys will be top-six players, and that would give the team time to develop their second rounders.
There’s also nothing precluing the Senators trading for first round picks or adding unrestricted free agents. There are other ways to add talent besides first round picks.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 30, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Good luck about adding decent free agents. This season you are witnessing that only a few key FA are on the market. Let’s not forget that those FA agents are looking for a nice pay increase (think Ehrhoff.) We’ll see more of this trend in the future. Basically, you need to overpaid for FA until you reach a point where you reach the cap ceiling. Is it enough to turn Ottawa into an annual Cup contender?
How you handle injuries when your farm team isn’t blessed with talented because you robbed yourself of good chances to add depth? Trade away more picks to win-now? How will other GM’s treat Murray in those deals? I suspect that offersheets carry a bad reputation around the NHL levels.
I think your suspicion is correct
It’s probably why we don’t see many offer sheets.
More likely scenarios are probably like the ones we saw with Meszaros, where Tampa told us they planned on making him an offer sheet, so a trade was worked out instead.
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Here's my thinking on Stamkos
If the Senators were to sign him to an offer sheet (which won’t happen), the cost is four first-rounders.
Stamkos will almost certainly improve the team, so those first-rounders will be worse than they would be otherwise.
Stamkos’ presence on the team won’t limit the Sens’ abilities to draft good players in later rounds, nor will his presence limit their ability to acquire first-round picks in other transactions.
The bottom line is that Stamkos, by all appearances, is a generational talent. The chances of drafting another generational talent with the four first-rounders we would give up for him are slim to nil; in fact, even the possibility of drafting top-six forwards is fairly low.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 30, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
True
True that he is a game changer, but the contract to sign him will haunt us in the future. That is why I say no thanks. (i.e. Brian Campbell)
Also, no thanks to any UFA’s, except for a backup goalie. You guys seem to forget we are in rebuilding mode still. We need to see what we got in our organization before we get someone from outside.
But we've seen pretty much all of what we've got that's NHL-ready
Keep in mind the ridiculous number of call-ups last year. We know what we have that’s NHL ready, so it’s not like a one-year FA signing is going to take away someone’s shot. With the exception of this year’s draft picks (none of whom I thought were expected to make the roster this year), there isn’t really anyone who hasn’t already had the chance. If they sign someone it’ll be because we don’t have anything in the system yet to fill that role.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
That I can buy - a 10+ mill contract handicaps a team.
If another team offers him the max (ie Florida) could he still sign with Tampa for less? Or does he have to take the higher deal?
I believe he has the right to accept or reject any offer except an aribtrator's if HE files for arbitration
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Hey, welcome to the site!
I think his contract would only haunt a team if the salary cap went down. That would be a mess.
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Even it if it doesn't go down we still will have a problem.
You are setting aside a huge chunk of the cap for one player. It has been shown in the past where it works for a season or two, but ultimately doesn’t work out.
I think it's too early to say it ultimately doesn't work out
We haven’t seen the long-term effects of most of these post-lockout contracts. The Penguins have a large amount of money committed to Crosby and Malkin and I would argue that hasn’t been a problem at all for them.
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But how did it work out for Tampa Bay...
St Louis, Richards, Lecavallier = FAIL
Does the same thing happen with Stamkos?
I wouldn't exactly call a Stanley Cup a failure, you know
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 30, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
My feelings won't be hurt
I don’t do this for the recs!
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True enough a Stanley Cup would be great
There are no guarantees that Stamkos brings the Cup to Ottawa, nor are there any guarantees that building through the draft would either.
But the ‘Big 3’ didn’t have the ‘big 3’ contracts when they won the cup. Those came afterwards and the team fell apart because it couldn’t sustain itself.
My argument would be by keeping the draft picks and developing talent from with-in there is a better chance of sustained runs at the championship ala Detroit rather than a perfect world Salary Cap 2 or 3 tries and you’re dismantled effort.
Be careful when using "there are no guarantees" as an argument
There are no guarantees about anything in sports, so the same argument applies to your draft picks. I would argue that with the future completely unknown, it’s literally impossible to say anything has a “better chance” than anything else.
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I don't know about that
I would say there is a better chance Christina Hendricks won’t marry me than the chance that she will. :(
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
He said in sports, and last I checked Mad Men wasn't a sport
Then again, I also disagree: Mark, there’s a better chance that Alfie will finish his career as a Senator than that he’ll ever play for another NHL team.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Points taken
I’m sure you both understand what I mean. Help me say it better!
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You don't even know her!
You’d just end up divorced!
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You'll have to start with the laws against bigamy
Because otherwise you’re too late.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I'll help if I get Alison Brie
‘Cause she’s even more attractive.
by TheGuineaPig on Jun 30, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Well "there are no guarantees" is just a cliché
Mainly because of course there are no guarantees. There are never guarantees when it comes to someone’s performance, not to mention where there are so many other factors involved.
The issue isn’t with that, it’s with you equating the lack of guarantees with probability. Probability is much more difficult to predict in sports because of all of the other factors (everyone else’s play, the refs, ice conditions, and sometimes just blind luck when it comes to your shots hitting the posts or not). There is still probability, it’s just next to impossible to estimate, especially over the long term when it comes to someone’s results.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I was careful
Which is why I said there were no guarantees either way, just with different wording.
And I will reword my statement “my arguement would be”
to: If it were up to me, my strategy would be to build through the draft…………
And given Murray's draft history, I think that's a perfectly fine strategy
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Hedberg is my pick. You get a good back-up who can also carry your team, if you #1 goalie is in a funk.
I’d wait on the sidelines as teams battle for the few quality free agents, and hopefully overpaid for them. Think about Buffalo entering a zone where they have no experience and where they will commit errors. Discuss shopping for the Sens!
I feel the Devils will re-sign him
Just my guess.
by TheGuineaPig on Jun 30, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to revise my position on backup goalies
ANYONE BUT GERBER.
Also I’m surprised that Auld is so popular. I really don’t have concerns about his play, I’d just be worried because of the fact that he was fighting to be our number one goalie last time I was here. If he’s over being traded and doesn’t mind being backup to Anderson/Lehner, that’s fine. I doubt Turco is a realistic option, personally – he’ll want a bigger deal than we should be giving out, plus I’d expect him to at least want to split the netminding duties.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Auld played in 16 games last season...
Auld knows he is a backup. I’m not sure that Auld won’t choose to stay in Montreal. Turco went from 74 to 53 to 29 games, I think he’ll probably find the offers he recieves are to be a backup goaltender, and his stats the last 2 years are also terrible.
I read the link to the BM comments. Where he also said that he wants Lehner to play 30 – 40 games before they look at getting him some NHL games. Coincidentally that is right around the All-Star break. Which is what I was suggesting. If Anderson is to be injured early, it would be ideal to keep Lehner in the AHL till he gets to those 30 – 40 games and have a goalie capable of handling the starting duties IF it is necessary.
The goalie being signed, whoever it is will understand this and know the role they will play. I believe that Ty Conklin, Jose Theodore, Brian Boucher, Johan Hedberg, Mathieu Garon all fit the backup role. All are proven. I would be ok with any of these options.
McElhinney is not an option as the team has stated that he will not be back.
I am not okay with Theodore
He was a disaster by the time he left Washington. Granted I didn’t hear anything about him this past season, but I don’t want a goalie whose name can also be used as a verb as in “Oh God, Elliott let in the first shot of the game? He’d better not Jose Theodore this. STOP THE NEXT ONE!”
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I was sorry to see Auld go
I believe he was supposed to be a backup when he was brought in, and did fine in that role. For whatever reason, Murray thought Elliott was a better choice for backup once he signed Leclaire (which I thought was a mistake, since Elliott and Glass both sucked in earlier callups from the minors).
I don’t think there was a negative view of Auld on the management’s part either, I think he was just the odd man out at the time.
My impression when he was signed was that it was with the intention of making him a starter
Then Brian Elliott started a goalie duel and eventually came out on top. Then again, I paid less attention to the media and everything back then. But if our goalies were Elliott and Auld (which is what I remember the situation being when Auld was signed), are you saying that you thought Elliott was supposed to be the starter?
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I think BM was looking for a starter in the offseason
And didn’t get one, then made the trade for Leclaire. My memory of that is foggy but my vague recollection was Auld being brought in as a back. I tried googling for some quotes from Bryan Murray but couldn’t find any just now. I’ll reply back if I can find them
My bad, we did still have Gerber when we signed Auld
But I still think for some reason that we’d meant Auld to start, and the number of games he played in 2008-09 suggests that he began the season as our starter.
Although I could still be totally off-base when it comes to the motivation for the signing and what he was expected to do. Either way, he ended up as a starter for a while and that didn’t go well.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Auld was supposed to be a back-up
Hence his 1M a year cap hit when he was with the Senators. However, Gerber’s poor play forced Auld into a starter role.
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He was supposed to be a better-than-average backup, though
The Senators were hopeful about Gerber, but I think they were far from certain he could bounce back. So they signed one of the top backup goaltenders in the league during a time when goaltenders were valued fairly low, and got a pretty good deal on him.
I think he was signed because he was a backup who could become a starter if need be, as an insurance policy. The Gerber (negatively) and Elliot (positively) screwed it all up.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 30, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparently it was just me, then, who looked at him and though "Thank God, no more Gerbage"
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Tyler Kennedy
I would love to get this guy image him with 18 mins of playing time. 30 goals ???
I'm sure he had 18 minutes last season with all the injuries in Pittsburgh.
That’s probably how he put up so many points.
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he's an intriguing option for the general petulance he would bring to the line-up
(sorry, i just can’t contribute to the over-use of truculence).
He doesnt take too many shifts off and is pretty versatile. Generally, i like the upside of a Morrison better but wouldnt be disappointed with Kennedy… Having said that, do we need another guy prone to take stupid penalities?
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Will Murray continue the trend of over-paying for UFAs?
Given the emphasis on rebuilding, it seems unlikely that Murray will try to win any bidding wars over proven vets (a la Kovalev and Gonchar), but it might be pretty tough to attract established NHLers at the peak of their careers to a team with very little chance of making any noise in the post-season for the next few years.
Regardless, my vote would be for either Kennedy or Upshall at forward. Both are relatively young, highly competitive, defensively responsible forwards who can play up and down the line-up and generate decent offense. As for goalies, I like Garon or Hedberg, though I agree with whoever it was that suggested Hedberg will likely stay in Jersey. He was very good for them last year. Garon is a little streaky, but he’s put up starter-calibre numbers for stretches in the past.
Is anyone seriously concerned that he will?
The Kovalev and Gonchar signings were products of a misplaced insistence (on almost everyone’s part, mind you, not just BMur’s) that Ottawa was one missing piece away from being a serious contender. No one thinks that now (or no one who’s in a position to affect FA signings or whose opinion I give any weight). We need to sign a backup goalie, and there’s room to sign a forward if there’s someone who’s a good fit available for the right price. But I’m betting Melnyk’s gone from insisting BMur find that missing piece to saving some money (excitement aside, ticket sales were bad last season, and the shine may wear off this rebuild pretty quickly). I don’t see any reason to be concerned that BMur will go out and give Brad Richards a ridiculously inflated contract.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
i’m seriously not worried about that. I agree in that i don’t think that was all Murray’s doing. I think he’s shown he can negotiate fair (vs. inflated) contracts.
I'm not so concerned he will this year
But that doesn’t mean he won’t do so in the future, right? It’s easy to imagine him falling back into the habit once the team looks like a contender again.
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True
But I really don’t believe it was all Murray. Like everyone has already hashed over, I think he was being pressured by Melnyk (and to some extent also by the fanbase) to keep going after that elusive magic piece that would score us a Cup. That, and trying to manage his extensive (from what I’ve hear) scouting network and to slowly and quietly restock the cupboard.
Maybe it’s part of the problem, but it almost seems like FA signings might not have been the highest priority on Murray’s list or have gotten as much attention as, say, drafting and college signings. Then again, that is unbridled speculation and I have nothing whatsoever to back up that suspicion.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I don't see the point of free agency skaters unless...
Depth at the Centre position is a concern if Da Costa & Zibanejad aren’t ready & Regin hasn’t found himself. So if Brendan Morrisson or Tim Connoly are interested in a 1 year deal for decent $ (we still have to get to the cap floor i believe). Other than that, any free agents are taking developmental ice time away from young kids.
Garon is good. Conklin as well. I’d be ok with Theodore or Boucher.
Centre
I totally agree on the Centre issue I think we do need one I would take Morrison for a one year contract. But hard to pass up on a legit 24 year old like Kennedy he plays hard and it offers Ottawa increased flexibility down the road. We have the cap space (not everyone is going to pan out). + it offers more good trade bait (draft picks). Some of our guys are really not that young, ex. Greening and Condra.
by WeaselHockey on Jun 30, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
My concern is that Morrison is going to seek a longer deal (3 years, or so) and want a bigger contract because he had a great year in Calgary (where I believe he played on a line with Iginla, which no doubt factored into his point totals).
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i think his head is in the clouds if he thinks a 3 yr deal is in the offing
and then clearly that’s all the reason needed to take a pass.
Da Costa not ready?
He played last year and looked fine (though not spectacular). Am I the only one expecting him to make the cut? Zibanejad on the other hand seems like a long shot this year. And as for the cap floor, we still have 2-3 guys to sign so let’s get those deals on the books before worrying about meeting the cap floor.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I think Da Costa's AHL-bound, personally
It’s just really hard for me to imagine a college kid making the jump right to the second line. Butler needed time to adjust; it seems reasonable to think Da Costa will as well.
Mikachu held his own against men as a teenager last year. I’m pretty sure he was still 17 when he first made the jump to the SEL. Based on that alone, I’d give him more of a shot—but that’s just my opinion.
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Agreed
DaCosta will not be here. Why? Cause he wasn’t so great in the face-off circle. I think he will take the same road as Butler. He might be here near the end of the year, but not the beginning.
I’ll be really surprised if Mika will make the team this year.
I don't feel that we do
Guys like Z. Smith and Neil are clearly bottom-six guys. I don’t think it would be benefiical for anyone’s development to put someone like Da Costa in a role he’s not built for. I think it would be more beneficial for him to get top minutes and responsibilities in the AHL rather than grinder minutes in the NHL.
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True, I suppose
I just thought he came together a bit as he played on our team last year, and his contract is up at the end of this season, isn’t it? So if he can play in the NHL, I’d like to see them squeeze him in if they can.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Sure for ZSmith and Neil
But what about Greening and Condra? I know you guys are high on them but if they stink it up and Da Costa is better, why not send one of them down.
The one-way contracts seem to contradict this but I’d chalk that up to this summer’s “WTF Bryan?” moment.
I'd be fine with giving Da Costa's spot to anyone who he outplays
I don’t see that happening, though, if only because of contracts.
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Well thank you, good sir
I’m sure are readers are very excited for the next bit of Varadanalysis, too. We all are!
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 30, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to go with Emery, Miettinen and Brendan Morrison.
Bring back Razor Ray. Fuck it, right? Glory days. The other two forwards have twenty goal potential and Morrison could be a great character addition. He has bounced around the league for the last few years, I could see him being very motivated in getting to lead a young group.
I like the idea of Miettinen, but he’s a winger (we need centres more) and his stats are likely inflated from playing on the top line in Minnesota with Koivu. He wouldn’t have that talented a linemate in Ottawa (unless he was on the top line).
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I really have no problem with bringing Emery back, but I don't know if he'd go for it.
He didn’t leave on good terms. But now that he’s back in the NHL, he seems to have buckled down and just be grateful for the chance to play now. Then again, it’d be a bit of a shame to see him wasted on spot duty. I’d assume he’ll want a bigger role in a tandem somewhere.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I think he wants a better chance to be starter
There are teams out there. Colorado springs to mind immediately.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 30, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Bahahahahahahaha
First Elliott, then Emery? I look forward to the future when the Avalanche sign Gerber and Lalime!
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Honestly, when you look at how many of the goalie FAs are former Sens, the odds are good that some team is going to add a former Sen
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 30, 2011 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Oh someone will
I’ll just be exceedingly amused if Colorado starts going after our former goalies like they’re collectibles.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Stamkos and other FA...
(First time posting, so please go easy on me…)
It seems to me that the only reasons to really go after a free agent at this point are either:
1. they are going to be a significant upgrade over what we have; and
2. they fit into the team’s long-term plans
I’m certainly not an expert, but i would think that the only two skaters that fit into both categories are Richards and Stamkos. In the case of all the others, they are stop-gap solutions that may hinder the development of the kids that were drafted.
Richards is unlikely to come to Ottawa – he will be looking for a contender; I would assume Philadelphia is a front-runner in that race. (Although come to think about it – Tampa keeps Stamkos and also signs Richards – they could be a force as well…but too broke to ice anyone else except ELCs…)
Stamkos poses an interesting issue though. An offer sheet, if accepted, could cost us four 1st rounders and a huge chunk of cash. The money is probably workable – he would definitely put bums in seats. Most people have problems with the loss of four picks. Statistically, when picking outside of the top three (with him, i’d assume we’d be better than 28th overall), the odds of a pick playing 200 games in the NHL (irrespective of impact level) is about 35% for forwards, 43% for defence. In essence, BM would be trading for Stamkos by giving up (on average) less than the equivalent of two career NHL’ers (of indeterminate impact).
see http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf for an interesting study.
I would argue that Ottawa should put in an offer sheet for Stamkos, with salary dropping off at the end to decrease cap hit; they could have a gentleman’s agreement in place that they will buy-out the last few years (like Alfie) and renegotiate as appropriate. BM has a history of picking great in the later rounds, and being able to trade up. We have tons of surplus D to trade for picks as well. Finally, his team is very good at finding the undrafted gems.
Never apologize for this
Well-thought comments are always respected here.
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Sounds like a strong argument to me.
Good points about our strong late-round drafting record and our ability to still move some defensive prospects for additional picks….I guess I’m pretty convinced. This would be an exciting move, to say the least! Get it done Murdawg!
Sadly, I suspect it's all fantasy...
I would love to see it happen – Senate Reform would be accelerated immensely. Unfortunately, I don’t see it being part of BM’s MO.
Let's not get our hopes up
He’s probably just going to re-sign for 9 years at $9.1M per year.
If I were a GM, I’d make my superstars all wear numbers in the teens.
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Nah, 'cause then you'd be signing Phillips for $4 mil, Brian Lee for $5 mil...
Whereas you can’t sign a guy for $17 million.
by TheGuineaPig on Jun 30, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
That is an interesting argument. I doubt they'll offer Stamkos anything, but it's an interesting thought for sure.
The one problem with this analysis...
…is that BM seems to have (by my eyeballing, not by actual formal statistics) done somewhat better than this “typical” first round success rate, so perhaps Ottawa would be giving up a bit more.
But still – increase the GFA by 0.63 (and decrease the GAA by some amount due to the Anderson effect and the fact that the D couldn’t play any worse). Wouldn’t that put Ottawa solidly in the playoffs?
It might put us in contention
But we can’t assume other teams will perform exactly as they did last season, either.
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Awesome analysis on this
The only problem: The current CBA does not allow a team to buy out a player and then re-sign him, nor does it allow for contracts to be re-negotiated. This may change for the next CBA, but I don’t think so.
And welcome to the site! Stick around!
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 30, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
CBA
Does it explicitly forbid buyout then re-sign? I will admit I haven’t looked, but I assumed that it was feasible as Ottawa already did it for Alfie. This is more of a legal thing, and a lawyer I am not.
The alternative might be to guarantee a second contract, much like Ovie – sign one to age 34, then another to age 40. Each could taper from exorbitant to miniscule numbers; the second would be a retirement contract that would be essentially the same as a “back-load”.
I checked out Alfredsson's deal a while back because I couldn't figure out how
they got away with a buyout/re-sign. He wasn’t bought out pursuant to the CBA, he was one of only a handful of players that still had pre-lockout contracts containing option years. The Sens bought out his option years, not regular years, then spread that money over three years (I think) to lessen the cap hit. They list it as buyout money, but technically it’s not the same. Anyway, his was the last contract in the league with those kind of option terms so that kind of deal is not possible now.
They didn't buy out the options
They declined the options, but the contract (which, as you said, was signed before the lockout) still included monies for Alfie if the options were declined.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jul 1, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok - fair enough
But I’m sure that a CBA-specialist lawyer could come up with some other creative way of accomplishing the same thing.
Are these numbers coming from that pdf document? Right off the bat, it was mentioned that the analyses in this paper are based upon players selected in the NHL Entry Drafts from 1988 to 1997.
The importance of scouting & developments increased tremendously, since the end of the lockout. Many teams turn towards the draft for cheap and talented players, instead of dipping into the FA pool. I don’t think that you make an argument based on old data like that.
Agree in principle, but...
…last year (I wish I could find it) TSN published a similar analysis using more recent draft data. in fact, the numbers were worse – IIRC, the top three picks went from 50% to 33%, then the probability of “success” in the NHL dropped to below 25% as you went towards the end of the first round. Interestingly, their definition of “success” didn’t strike me as truly successful, from what I’m remembering.
The argument would be much more solid if I had the URL for the above, but I don’t. I will search again and post if I find it.
Jussi Jokinen signs with Hurricanes
Scratch him off your wishlists.
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And Oshie signed earlier
Another name that was mentioned. Pickings are getting slim on the UFA market. My bet is BM doesn’t sign any skaters (except maybe some 2-way deals to stock bingo in case of injury)
Blast!
Oh well… we might have overpaid, anyway.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 30, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
my 2c....
gk: turco, then hedberg. turco won a cup. that’s gotta be handy for king lehner to learn from. but i think turc’s asking price will be too much. if that’s the case, i’d happily welcome alex bald back to ottawa.
f: belanger. solid second line pivot. should work well with alfie.
keep your change
Anyone interesting is gone, pretty much
And based on the contracts they signed, our piddly offers (had Murray thought to make them) wouldn’t have stood a chance.
I don’t want the team to sign a free agent who would step in the way of one of the team’s prospects from getting valuable NHL development, but, on the other hand, we don’t want the team to rush anyone. Thus, I would rather see players like Da Costa or Zibanejad spend time getting quality minutes in Bingo.
Should that turn out to be the case, since we have no idea what to expect of Regin, it might be worthwhile for the Sens to acquire a player who can play second-line centre, even if not very well (after all, if the idea is to sign someone as a stopgap on a rebuilding team, then we don’t want the team to hand out a long-term big-money contract, and, as the saying goes, you get what you pay for). I believe Regin is still recuperating from a shoulder injury, so he might not be 100%, as we saw with other players on the team coming back from tough injuries like that (Michalek, Kuba).

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