Silver Seven Roundtable: 2011 NHL Entry Draft Predictions
by DarrenM on Jun 23, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
in Ottawa Senators prospects
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Editor's note: these predictions are purely based on gut feeling and trying to put our brain inside of the head of Bryan Murray. It's kind of like the movie "Being John Malkovich," except with less John Cusack.
1) Who do you think the Senators will take 6th overall? (Not who do you want them to take, but who do you think they'll take)
Darren: I have a feeling it will be Ryan Strome or Mika Zibanejad. The reason I say this is that Pierre Dorion, Director of Player Personnel, was recently speaking to the media and kept reiterating that it's not about taking the best player available now, but the best player in 4-5 years time. To me, that suggests it won't be Larsson or Landeskog (who won't be available at 6), or even Couturier (who many experts now have still being available at 6)., as nice as Couturier would be for this organization.
Mark: If they move up, it will be for Jonathan Huberdeau. If they select 6th, it will be Ryan Strome, who has more offensive upside than Mika Zibanejad.
Ryan: I think it'll be either Strome or Couturier, depending on who's left. My money's on Strome if they're both left on the table. Personally, I hope it's Strome. But since this is Bryan Murray drafting, it wouldn't shock me one bit if they took a defenceman, in which case it's Ryan Murphy.
Peter: If the team doesn't trade up--and I think there's a good chance they will trade up--I think Murray will select whichever centreman among the group of Couturier, Huberdeau, or Strome is available. I think Strome is the most likely, based on the fact that he seems unlikely to be picked in the first five and reports that the Sens scouts really like him.
2) Which pick is more likely to move -- the 6th overall or the 21st overall? Or will the Senators stay put at both picks?
Ryan: I'd say the 21st, because the Senators want to move up, and there's much more room to move with the 21st. I know there's speculation that Ottawa could be packaging the 6th and 21st in order to move into the top five, but I honestly cannot see any of the top five teams who'd want to take that deal. I'd say Florida might bite, but the word going around is that they're trying to pry the 1st from Edmonton to move up, not down.
Darren: The 21st. The Senators would love to move up from 6 but it won't happen. They'll find someone who lets them move up from 21.
Mark: I actually think the 6th is more likely to move, simply because that's the one Murray is likely to spend most of his effort on. The contracts given to Zack Smith and Colin Greening have helped solidify the bottom six for a few years, and Murray has to know he can't walk away from this draft without securing a top talent. There's nobody who's a surefire home run this year, so if Murray has to overpay to get the closest thing, I bet he will--rather than hoping it falls to him.
Peter: Tough call. I will say it's more likely that 21 will move, but it's still pretty reasonable to expect the team to move the sixth overall pick. I would be extremely surprised if neither of them are moved.
3) Are the Senators going to draft any defensemen in the first round?
Mark: I doubt it, unless Larsson is available at 6th. Since that doesn't seem likely, I imagine if the best player on their board at 6th is a defenseman, they'd rather trade down and pick up options rather than overloading on the only position of depth in the organization. I mean, I suppose it's possible that they'd take Ryan Murphy and choose to flip Erik Karlsson for a forward because he's become expendable, but that seems needlessly complex to me.
Ryan: My heart says no, but my instincts say that Bryan Murray is hell-bent on making a fourth line composed entirely of offensive defencemen (and Brian Lee). I'm going to say yes, he will.
Darren: No. Larsson will be gone by 6 and I don't see the Senators grabbing either Hamilton or Murphy there. Even though the Senators say they pick best player available, this draft just seems loaded with solid forwards in the first round, and the Senators really need to stock the cupboards with forwards.
Peter: Nope, at least I don't think so. The one guy who seems like a can't-miss prospect is Adam Larsson, and there's no way he falls to six. After him, it seems like there's no defensive prospect farther ahead of the forward prospects surrounding him, so I think the Sens always pick the forward available.
4) Will any of the Senators players or prospects be dealt on or prior to draft day?
Darren: Is there anyone on the team left to trade?
Ryan: I hope so. I'd love to see Filip Kuba or Sergei Gonchar move. I can see Foligno being dealt, but depending on the return I'm hesitant to make such a move. Do you think someone would trade for Marek Svatos' negotiating rights?
Mark: The team has the ammunition to avoid that if necessary, but I bet we see at least one more former Ottawa Senator after this weekend. Nick Foligno's development hasn't gone smoothly, for example, and it's not a stretch of the imagination to see Murray washing his hands of a John Muckler pick under the guise of "starting fresh."
Peter: There's not much time prior to draft day, but I don't think so. There may be a player moved before Canada Day when the free agency period starts, but I think Murray et al will prefer to wait and see how the roster shakes out (and how the kids perform in training camp) before making many moves.
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Totally unrelated
But the G&M ran an article about rumours, and said the following:
And if Gaborik is on the market, shouldn’t the Ottawa Senators be after him to fill the salary hole created by Dany Heatley’s departure?
….. Salary hole? Correct me if I’m wrong, but we’re nowhere near the cap floor, so what salary hole? And if Heatley leaving caused a salary hole, didn’t Cheechoo’s inflated contract plug that up? We can talk about acquiring Gaborik, but that’s one of the stupidest reasons ever. Awesome sports reporting, G&M.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Haha, that's amazing
Filling a “salary hole” would only make sense if winning was based on spending. Sather is the only GM with that philosophy as far as I know.
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Actually
The Senators are currently BELOW the cap floor for next season: The cap floor is $48M, and we’ve spent just over $44M on 18 players. That number will come up as the roster is filled out, but right now, we’re under.
As for this hole left by Heatley, I’m not sure why we’d wait two seasons to fill it out… the ‘salary hole’ the Senators currently have was created by the dismissals of Kovalev, Fisher, and Leclaire.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 23, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Are we really?
Although we do have some UFAs and RFAs who I imagine will be re-signed, so there’s that. But really, given the fickle support I can see why we’d spend to the floor instead of to the cap this year…
Plus we’re looking for a winger in July anyway. Stupid G&M.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Fickle support?
More fans passed through the turnstiles at SBP last season than in Pittsburgh, NYC and Boston! And which of those cities had the worst team on the ice?
Rec'd
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 23, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
All you need to do is scroll through the links on the main page sidebar to see the complaining
Maybe fickle isn’t the right word, but Ottawa fans love to bitch and moan. Mostly about the rink being so far (because that will totally make them move the rink), but there’s also a lot of people who just don’t know much about hockey and think we were vastly underpaid for Fisher and should have just traded Kuba and Leclaire instead because it’s that easy to be GM.
But our sellout streak is long gone, and a lot of the bodies in seats at our games were from other cities. This season was the first time I saw my rink taken over by Flyers fans (and I didn’t even go to a Flyers game) and Oilers fans and Sabres fans. Numbers don’t tell the whole story, and I’m pretty sure Sens fan turnout isn’t going to drastically increase for the first year of our rebuild.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I don't know about that
Sure, there’s plenty of ignorance and bitching from fans, but you’ll see that anywhere. I’m not sure you can really support the argument that “a lot” of the bodies in seats at our games were from other cities, aside from Leafs and to an extent Habs games. You CAN, however, say (and you’d be correct in saying) that the Sens gave a lot of tickets away last year, but I still think the attendance last season was much better than the performance on the ice.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 23, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Well "a lot" is a pretty vague term, sure
My point is that I saw a drastic increase in away fans from the year before or the year before that, and that the away fans aren’t just from the geographically close Division rivals (like Montreal). And my point that our sellout streak ended a long time ago stands – I can’t remember the last time Ottawa sold out a game that wasn’t against Toronto or Montreal (and even then we don’t always sell out).
Oh Captain, my Captain!
The dumb thing they do (and the Sens are not the only team that does this) is that for some reason, according to the club, they can apparently go “over capacity” at SBP if there is enough demand for tickets.
I found this PDF on the team’s website showing game-by-game attendance for the past season. The highest attendance occurred in home game #26, against Montreal when 20,337 were in the rink. (Ignore the colour-coding by whoever put this together – they got the highest attendance wrong.)
So then you’d think that in order to have a “sellout”, you would need 20,337 people at a game, right? Wrong. According to them, there were 15 sellouts last year, including 19,191 to see Vancouver in home game #9.
Why do they do this? Who do they think they’re fooling?
(And for the record, other teams do this too, including but not limited to Chicago, Philly, Toronto, Pittsburgh and San Jose, which all listed “attendance” of greater than 100% last season. Chicago even claims that it had road attendance of greater than 100%. It’s preposterous.)
Well they sell wheelchair spots and standing room, so it's not entirely BS
But even tickets sold isn’t ultimately an indicator of support – I saw a LOT of empty 100L seats last year. But we didn’t sell out our home opener, and it was against the effing Sabres. Lamesauce.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I think it's seating capacity
When they sell standing-room tickets and extra tickets in luxury quites, they’ve surpassed their seating capacity.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 23, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, the suites too
You can def fit more people in one than the number of seats.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Still – there was a time when SBP capacity was 18,500 and you would never see attendance listed higher than that. If it was less than 18,500 it was not a sellout. If it was 18,500 it was a sellout. It was simple.
This business of more than 100% capacity is a fairly recent thing, and I still say it’s dumb.
I hear you
But I think it’d be dumb to need to sell out standing room to log a sellout, and equally dumb to not offer standing room tickets if people want them.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I don't see a problem with it
The problem is the confusion of general capacity and seating capacity. Obviously for playoff games they’ll sell more tickets than in regular season games, and I think every arena would do that.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 23, 2011 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
There are still arenas out there, though, where the number of tickets sold is the same, night-in, night-out.
Every single regular season and playoff game since the lockout, the Habs have had 21,273 people in the building. Every single time, it’s that same number. And every single time, they say they are at 100% capacity – not something dumb like 101.3%. Same thing with Calgary, they are at 19,289 every single night, and they call it 100% capacity.
I realize this isn’t a hill to die on, but – call me crazy – I think it’s a sellout when you have no more tickets to sell and not at any point before that.
Don't spend to the cap just yet
Before we’re competitive again, we’ll owe Karlsson a massive extension and we’ll need to sign some UFA’s.
by Sports Fan! on Jun 23, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh you didn't see the article that was up yesterday huh?
Where they ranked everyone and said the Sens would finish 27th.
No I missed that one
Rarely do I read sports articles from the G&M because when I do they talk about crap like the salary hole left by Dany Heatley.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
wow - our national media is really stepping up to the plate on Sens opinion, eh?
c’mon Toronto Star – whaddya have for us?
My thoughts
Assuming the top-5 teams don’t move their picks. I think Edmonton takes Larsson, Colorado-Landeskog, Florida-RNH, NJ-Hamilton/Murphy, NYI-Huberdeau(or Snow channels his inner Milbury & goes with Hamilton/Murphy). That leaves Ottawa with their choice of Couturier,Strome,Zibanejad. I think they take Strome, though I would prefer Couturier.
I say they move the 6th pick to move up. Mainly because I don’t want them to, so it’ll probably happen. No way is anyone in the top 5 picks worth #6 & #21. I hope they move the #21 & a combo of 2nd/3rd round picks and/or a Regin/Lee or a Wick/Caporusso/Wideman for a second pick in the top 10. I believe though that Winnepeg & Columbus both take a centre and Boston is the only team that would trade their top 10 pick meaning there isn’t another forward worth trading to the top 10 for. If Murray can somehow make a combination of the above turn into a top 5 pick that’d be great!
Vancouver has shown this year that you can never have enough D-men. I think at one point they had the 13th D-man on their depth chart playing for them due to injury. So is it possible that Murray takes a defenseman in the 1st round – Yes. It better not be with the #6 pick though!
I don’t think you’ll see Kuba or Gonchar move anywhere. I hope they keep Foligno. Worst case he’s on the 3rd line with Zack Smith & Chris Neil, I kinda like that combination. I listed some guys above I think Ottawa will find ‘expendable’ that have some value. I think it’s more likely that Gonchar/Kuba will have bounceback years under McLean & get moved at the trade deadline for some more picks in next years draft.
Welcome to the blog, Havey03!
Welcoming people is usually Mark’s idea, but I thought I’d chime in. I think you’re bang-on with some of your predictions.
You’re right; there is no way that Sens’ management moves #6 and #21 for a place in the top five. I think, if we were to try to move #21 and a later pick or prospect to anybody, it should be the Islanders. Most of the buzz around the internet indicates that they are looking to draft a defenceman. I would assume that they wouldn’t be willing to move their pick if Larsson was available, but there’s a very good chance he will be gone by #5. Therefore, knowing that defencemen like Siemens, Morrow, Klefbom, Brodin, or even Beaulieu may be available at #21 overall, they may be less hesitant to move down. This is also assuming that we pair the pick with our second rounder and somebody like Wiercioch.
Alternatively, if they like D. Hamilton, I could see the Islanders offering their pick to either us or WInnipeg, knowing he will still be available at #7. Everyone knows that the Sens and Jets are likely to take a forward, so whoever offers up the most would get to move up a spot (or two). I would hate for the Jets to swoop in ahead of us and take Lando, but it’s all part of the draft fun.
In terms of taking a D-man, I’ve been pretty adamant about going after Oleksiak. I just thing we’d give teams a very hard time with him bolstering our already solid blueline. The guy is a giant, and if he skates half as well as some of his reports, then I say we take a flyer. I mean, Karlsson pretty played with with Andy the expert right? However, I think it might be a pipe dream, since he’s been rated anywhere from 10-16.
Agreed on the Oleksiak comment.
A giant punishing blueliner always helps. Especially in playoffs – all the skill means nothing if you don’t have some size to support it.
Oleksiak
If Oleksiak slips down to #48 which would be a major miracle, then that’s the only Dman to take.
Thar she blows!!
How do you do that by the way? I cut and pasted the URL and all I got was the X box.
Also, how does one upload a pic from the cpu?
When you hit reply, you've got a whole bunch of options to choose from above the body part of the comment
The picture of the tree on the furthest right is for images. Just paste your image URL in there. If you already did all that and I sound like a condescending jerk, sorry. If you copy and paste the URL and you get a red x box, your URL is wrong, or your link is blocked by the website hosting it—but usually you just didn’t copy correctly. Look for missing slashes and whatnot.
To upload a pic, you need to use a third party site, such as www.tinypic.com, which is awesome because it’s free. Once you upload there, just copy the image URL and repeat the steps above.
Hope that helps!
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 23, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Hurray!
PS they like you to use titles on your images so people on mobiles can collapse them.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Yes we do!
:D
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by Ryan Classic on Jun 23, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Aha!
I tried to upload this last week and failed, but Mark I believe you said that you would pay to see this:
Oh Captain, my Captain!
This is horrifying
I would pay so much money
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 23, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
You misspelled awesome.
It’s A-W-E-S-O-M-E, not H-O-R-R-I-F-Y-I-N-G
Also, that’s just with MS Paint. I’m sure someone who actually has photoshop can do a much better job.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
someone who actually has photoshop can do a much better job.
I’m pretty sure this is as good as it’s gonna get :) BECAUSE IT IS AWESOMESAUCE.
Well at least someone who can edit video could do the whole song
That would be awesome. I’d probably pay to see that!
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Have you seen that video?
It’s a National Film Board short called ‘the log driver’s waltz’ and it’s INCREDIBLE. Remind me of my childhood because I seem to remember it always being played during cartoons in the morning. And on YTV.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 23, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I haven't
I didn’t have a lot of access to Canadian TV as a kid.
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Here you go. We’re so happy about our National Film Board that we post everything they do online for free.
It won’t mean as much to you as it does to me, but it’s still an awesome song and video.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 23, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
For a second I was indignant
Then I realized it was directed at you. Here you go!
Fun fact: The song is by the McGarigle sisters, I believe.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
My Thoughts
From what Tim Murray has said, it sounds like the Sens are prepared for anything and everything that can happen at the top of the draft. They’re ready to trade up, trade down or stand pat. Personally, if they move up I think it will be to draft one of Huberdeau or Landeskog. If they move down, it will be because of the ‘turd in the punchbowl’ scenario that TM alluded to and T6S described some time back. All signs point to that doomsday scenario being RNH, Larsson, Landeskog, Huberdeau and Strome being pick in some order 1 through 5, leaving us with having to draft Couturier or Zibenajad. If they trade down, I think it will be due to one or more teams in the top five going off the supposed draft board by selecting Hamilton or Zibenajad. That said, I think it’s unlikely they move down if this occurs as it would mean that at least one of Landeskog/Huberdeau/Larsson would be available at 6th.
I find it unlikely that the Sens will move their 21st overall selection unless it is part of a package in exchange for another pick in the top-8 or for a young and established scoring forward. By all accounts, the calibre of players that project to be available between 10 and 40 is equal and thus it would make little sense to try and move up
I hope to God we don't pick a defenceman
In fact, I would go as far as to say I want a forward taken with all five picks in the first two rounds (or however many we have if we use some to move up).
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Load up on forwards
I’m all in favour of BM using some magic to find an already existing young center like Hodgson or Oshie in exchange for a some combination of Foligno / Regin / Gryba / Wiercoch / maybe Neil and draft picks after #35 (if possible).
Then load up on the best forwards available. Move up only if the cost is from the above list.
I know they don’t want to do this but I still say draft another goalie with the 3rd or 4th or later rounder.
Reply that's actually related to the article
I agree re: Strome based purely on the emails the Sens have been sending out (i.e., I got a profile on Strome but don’t remember getting anything about anyone else). But if they can manage to move up, I think they’re pretty set on Lando.
Also, less John Cusack? Everything needs more John Cusak.
You’re welcome.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Peter always has the most diplomatic answers
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Really?
Am I diplomatic or non-committal? I hope it’s diplomatic.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 23, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
just saw this on TSN Twitter feed
now the full story is up. Guess Cameron was right…
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=369777
@ Mark
Your post gave me an “outside of the box” idea. If the asking price for 1st is Karlesson as Murray said, why not do it, draft RNH, and get Ryan Murphy with the 6th? That would be dramatic shit.
I suppose because the asking price for 1st is probably more than just Karlsson
And also because there’s no guarantee that Murphy turns out to be as good as the kid he’s replacing.
It’d be a hell of a gamble, especially if it pays out, but I don’t know if huge gambles are the best approach to building a team.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 23, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it sends the wrong message to the fans and the team.
Karlsson is exciting to watch, he’s an All Star and he’s the de facto future of the franchise. He’s a proven commodity, while the others are a gamble. Trading him away tells our young stars that if you come to us, we’ll flip you at the first opportunity.
That's not as big a concern for me as it is for you, apparently
I guess I’ve just seen too many players leave too many different teams via free agency to worry about their feelings. Most players play on more than one team in their careers—guys like Alfie are rarer than ever.
Now, if Murray came to Karlsson and said, “Erik, you’re a megastud and I stay up late watching YouTube videos of you and we’re going to frame this rebuild around you. You think you can shoulder that burden?” that would be a different story. Trading him after something like that would be a Shakespearean betrayal.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 23, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Now you've got me imagining hilarious BM late-nights.
Sitting on the couch, controller in hand with the blue glow of the TV illuminating the living room, BM is recreating his greatest draft day moments on the Xbox (to be honest he seems more like a Wii kind of guy, but whatever). And maybe editing EK’s abilities to reflect his true worth. “Let’s just tick ‘offensive awareness’ up to 97, shall we?”
He can't use a game controller, come on
He’d be sitting there, telling Tim what to do.
“No, make him 190bs, but with the same speed.”
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Not to mention Murray repeatedly called him untouchable
As in there are three players who are untouchable when we blow up the team: Alfie (THANK GOD), Karlsson, and Spezza was later added to the list. You turn around from that to trading Karlsson for a pick and you will not make a good impression with the other players on your team.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
That's a good point
I would never publicly declare someone untouchable if I were a GM.
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As I said below: with the exception of Alfie
I was seriously a nervous wreck when there were rumours about Alfie maybe being traded to finish out his career on a team that’s in the playoffs. It’s rare to need to do it, but I was very very grateful to get that reassurance about my captain.
Also I get why they did it with Karlsson – he was one of few bright spots about this season. I don’t think that calling him untouchable in the papers will stop another GM from making you a ridiculous offer if they want him that badly, so any offers it will prevent are offers you wouldn’t have accepted anyway. Plus it sends the fans a message that, even though we’re rebuilding and blowing up the core of the team, we’re not just getting rid of absolutely anyone who’s good. It’s nice to have that reassurance that a young, talented guy will be sticking around so we can get hyped up for next season. As opposed to being in Edmonton’s shoes and really having nothing to get too excited about.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Nope, not even Alfie is immune
That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t have my own internal “untouchable” list, but no one else needs to know about it. In Alfie’s case, I’d probably say something like, “He’s been our franchise player and he’s earned the right to decide how to finish his career. We’re going to respect any decision he makes.” and leave it at that.
As for Karlsson, you make some really good points. I really don’t believe in trading for trading’s sake. You don’t trade a guy just because his value is high — you only do it if it results in a benefit for your team.
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Hey, as long as any deal made for Alfie includes a new rink to play in fine.
But it’ll need to make up for the riot I’ll cause and the loss of my business, because I’ll be rioting like I’m a Canucks fan who just watched them lose game 7 of the finals.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
But,
If the price is just Karlesson, it is not trading Karlesson for Murphy. It is trading Karlesson for RNH. Weighing the depth in in D compared to depth up front, it is an interesting scenario at least. In the end it would be a gamble that RNH & Murphy > Karlesson & Couturier (or Strome). Kind of scary I admit, but interesting to think about. My guess is that those comparisons are about even, so I wouldn’t go for it given the “bad message” it may convey.
I don't think think the price is just Karlsson, though
If it were, that would be a different discussion.
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As long as we're thinking 'outside the box'
Keep Karlsson, trade 21st overall, our earliest 2nd round pick & a prospect like Weircioch to the Isles for their 5th pick.
Select Couturier 5th, Strome 6th, Then because we’ll have a future 1 & 1A centres, send Spezza to Winnepeg for their 1st & 2nd round pick. With the 7th overall pick from Winnipeg take Zibanejad to be 1B centre. Hopefully 1, 1A or 1B will be able to convert to winger.
That would be some dramatic sh*t!
Yeah!
I love the first part of that up until the trading Spezza part. Now that is dramatic sh*t!!! Spezza, Coutourier and Strome, YAY!!! One of them might have to turn into a winger, or the centermen get waved so much these days that we can just go with two centers per line and alternate them around. What a pleasant problem to have… to many centers.
We'd have to trade a more NHL ready prospect than Wiercioch.
I’m thinking Regin or Foligno with Wick, the 21st for the 5th.
But that’s an interesting argument.
I went that direction in an earlier post
“I hope they move the #21 & a combo of 2nd/3rd round picks and/or a Regin/Lee or a Wick/Caporusso/Wideman for a second pick in the top 10.”
+ I'm not ready to give up on Foligno
Chris Neil, Zack Smith, Nick Foligno is a really gritty 3rd line that also has some scoring skill. I like it.
With this one I was going for a bit of sarcasm...
…a little dash of truth, and a little bit of fantasy… Guess that didn’t really come through. I don’t want them to trade Spezza.
Point was trading Karlsson for the 1st pick & replacing him with Murphy is similar to trading Spezza and replacing him with an unproven whom you don’t know if they have the same skill set @ the NHL level….
I’ll have to work on my sarcasm in type a little bit…lol
They can't trade Spezza
That will leave a complete leadership black hole on the team and no prospect of another captain for 5 years.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I too have toyed with this idea
I have a few additional thoughts to throw into the mix.
1) EK is ahead of our rebuild time table. A defensive prospect would have 2-4 years to reach their potential and join the club as it approaches peek competitiveness.
2) Is there a defenseman available who has anywhere near EK’s offensive abilities? Doubtful. Dougie Hamilton does have seem to have a well rounded game. Would BM trade some offensive ability for more defensive strength?
3) Will RNH or any of the others be the impact player EK can be? Will EK be the impact he can be? He does need more size/strength to fulfill his defensive responsibilities.
by anothersensfan on Jun 23, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
EK isn't ahead of the rebuild
EK only has one full season in Ottawa & is only 20. In 2 – 4 years EK will be entering his prime, physically mature. There are solid veterans on the team to help him learn the defensive side of the game & Gonchar can help him with his positional play (assuming Gonchar remembers how to do that himself).
It would seem that Ryan Murphy has Karlsson like skill & the same defensive liabilities & the same size. But we won’t really know how equal the two are till 5 years down the road and have a sample group to compare.
It really is a gamble either way because you don’t really know how much stronger/bigger Karlsson is going to get or whether he will always be prone to poor defensive play or if he will learn to be better.
You don’t know the same things about any of the prospects eitehr.
If EK isn't the leading edge of our rebiuld who is?
Of coarse I hope/expect EK to continue to improve. Great players are always honing their craft. I imagine if you asked Alfie he’d tell you there is some aspect of his game he has been working on and he’s already perfect!
by anothersensfan on Jun 23, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd hope so
Karlsson isn’t a complete player by any stretch of the imagination.
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I don't think havey03 said he wasn't the leading edge
His point was that Karlsson isn’t so developed that he’ll peak before the rebuild needs him to. I agree that he’s on the leading edge of the rebuild, but he’s definitely not ahead of it.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Ryan Murphy is practically a Karlsson clone
So, yes, there is a guy available. Not that I’m justifying, just answering question #2.
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I've heard this to
I would draw a distinction when comparing a prospects potential to someone who is already competing in the NHL. More of a “bird in the hand worth two in the bush” viewpoint than a put down of a prospects potential.
by anothersensfan on Jun 23, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
And I think that's a fair approach
We know what we’ve got with Karlsson… it seems needlessly complex to gamble we can get it again in the hopes of gaining a forward out of it. That’s a lot of hope, as far as I’m concerned.
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That's it in a nutshell
The rest is all buts and ifs.
But what if BM and Staff believe one of the top picks will be a greater asset than EK going forward.
If Murphy or someone else can assume EK’s PMD role.
If this deal even exists.
I do believe in any deal (within reason) whoever gets the best player wins.
by anothersensfan on Jun 23, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
In light of all the recent draft fantasy/prediction business...
I’m wondering about the relative merits of packaging multiple later picks just to move up a few spots in the first round. Looking over recent draft history, it seems like a potential mistake to trade away picks unless you’re getting at least as many picks in return. The Sens should be looking for quantity just as much as quality, particularly in the first few rounds. Yes, the Sens have six of the top 66 selections or whatever it is, but If anything, I think Murray should be looking to pick up more picks rather than fewer. The draft is such a crap-shoot, and outside of the top two or three players, it’s anybody’s guess as to who is going to turn into a regular contributor at the NHL level.
While this year’s crop of prospects may lack clear-cut superstars, it’s generally considered to be pretty deep. It’s clearly not as deep as the completely mind-boggling 2003 draft class, but it might be worth thinking about that year as a point of reference. Fleury, Staal, and Horton went 1, 2, and 3, and while there were a few misses (Hugh Jessiman at #12, Steve Bernier at #16), the majority of the players picked in the opening round have turned into bona fide pros. Philly got Carter and Richards at #11 and #24, and Murray (then with Anaheim) grabbed Getzlaf and Perry and #19 and #28. Championship teams are built around players like that. As for the Sens, picking Patrick Eaves at #29, they passed on Loui Eriksson (#33), Patrice Bergeron (#45), and Shea Weber (#49). Ouch.
Hindsight is 20/20, of course, and projecting the physical development of 17- and 18-year-old kids four or five years into the future is as inexact of a science as there is. If the Sens management really thinks that RNH, Landeskog, or Huberdeau are future all-stars in the making, then by all means they should do what they can to move up and grab one of them. But if moving up comes at the expense of dealing multiple later picks and reducing their odds of finding another solid contributor or two later on, I’m not convinced that it’s worth it.
Here's an excellent analysis
Statistically, picking up more picks doesn’t make it more likely that the team will hit the jackpot.
As an outside observer, I think it is worth it, primarily based on that article. But as you pointed out, it really depends heavily on the team’s evaluation of the player in question.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 23, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for that, Mark.
It definitely clarifies things. I’m probably guilty of subscribing to a few of the fallacies he describes. That said, his particular hypothetical scenario involves packaging a bunch of mostly late-round picks in exchange for a top-10 selection, and I was thinking more about the possibility of the Sens dealing some of their picks in the 21 – 66 range. The odds of getting an Alfredsson/Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Rinne/whoever in the 6th or 7th round are obviously minuscule, but as that article suggests, there are still plenty of valuable players taken every year in the 14 – 50 range.
While there’s obviously a good deal of luck involved in putting a contender together, it’s hard to ignore examples like Chicago getting Keith and Bolland in the second round of their respective draft years, or the Bruins getting Lucic and Marchand the same year they picked Kessel. The Dominic Moore example makes a certain amount of sense as far as the replaceability of bottom-six forwards is concerned, but there’s definitely something to be said for having a group of solid players come up through the system together and hitting their prime around the same time. This draft year strikes me as an opportunity for Murray to get a top-line forward as well as a couple of valuable complementary parts.
Agreed
I feel that the lack of surefire players in this draft makes it a scout’s draft. If Murray and his team feel that there’s an opportunity to get some of those type of players—and not just a chance based on volume of picks, but actual prospects they’ve scouted and graded and think will be available—then they need to think long and hard before deciding to pass up those opportunities in favor of a more-hyped prospect.
Given their judgment on Karlsson, Lehner, and Rundblad in recent years, I’m pretty confident they’ll make the call based on best value to the organization. I just wish I had a better idea of what that value was. I guess we’ll find out tomorrow!
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 23, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with all of this.
BM has excelled at drafts in the past, and it gives me a lot more confidence going into a supposedly weak draft like this year’s.
I would say Murray's team rather than just Murray
I don’t want to give him too much credit when most of it isn’t his work. He’s smart for trusting his staff, I’ll give him that.
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Sure
But no matter how good the team, you need a GM who knows when to listen (and presumably when not to) and who trusts his team.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Without a doubt
I’m glad we have that kind of GM, and a staff that actually makes his trust pay off.
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So refreshing after Muckler.
Which is not to insinuate that he didn’t trust his scouts because I have no idea. I just know he screwed this team.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Now, now
He sure as hell left the cupboards bare but you can’t fault the guy for rolling the dice on a Cup. He gambled and lost; so do 28 other GMs every year.
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If it was one or two bad moves, I'd agree
But it was a whole lot more than that, and I’ve heard Muckler criticized for not being ballsy enough in his gambles to get the Cup.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Well, that criticism is just an opinion
It happens to be one I share, but without knowing what the asking price for Gary Roberts was, for example, it’s hard to really say what he should have done.
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It’s more that Muckler just didn’t have scouts.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
Completely agree.
Hell, they got Lehner late, and traded for Rundblad who fell off everyone’s radar. I think we’re splitting hairs at this point. I just want it to be October so I can watch hockey again!
You Said it
Drafting is key in a salary cap league.
Great that our Owner and Management take it so seriously.
by anothersensfan on Jun 23, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Sheer numbers
There can be some value in sheer numbers of picks. This year there are alot of project-type players… guys who used to be thought of as 1st rounders but for one reason or another have fallen. If we pick up a few of these guys with later picks, hopefully one of them is bound to turn into a home run top six guy.
At this age, lots of players turn their careers around in one year, and some develop a little later than others.
This is so exciting. When do we start picking?
Well, statistically, the theory of volume yielding results doesn't hold up
There’s nothing that suggests we’d hit a home run simply by having more picks.
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Bottom line
Murray must come out of this draft with a future first line player, with the potential of being an all star. It’s been 10 years since that happened, and this is going to be our best shot for quite some time. Even if it means making a tough trade and parting with someone off our roster, now is the time. A second liner just won’t do. We can’t afford to bring in all our stars via free agency.
I think I'm gonna take a couple days off from this forum haha.
All the pre draft speculation has me on edge, and gets me all riled up. If the Sens take a Defenceman in any first round pick that they have/get, I will explode. But, apparently some of you disagree. And even reading those opinions makes me want to explode, despite the fact that all of your opinions are just as valid as my own. I’m just not my rational self around draft time.
I know we all want the same thing, but we all have our little plans. Anyway, this made for interesting reading. Truth is, it will probably all shake out a lot of simply than we are hypothesizing.
Have to say this though: describing Karlsson as “expendable”, is blastphemy.
brent
by bacraswell on Jun 23, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Ha!
But if you have Karlsson A and Karlsson B, one of those Karlssons is expendable, yes?
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This is the pet peeve I was talking about the other day! Everyone should be expendable all the time, as long as the right offer is on the table!
There’s no sense in labelling a guy “untouchable” – even a guy who was an all-star at age 20 – because the only thing that does is tell teams not to even bother pitching offers. And what if someone was willing to offer something stupid good for him? You’d never find out.
Everyone except Daniel Alfredsson.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I will tear that rink down brick by brick with my bare hands if they do that. So any offer for Alfie had better include a new rink to play in.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Nobody's taking Alfie
There are onlt 2 ways he gets traded:
1. He asks for a trade (please don’t) to win a cup
2. Murray gets a totally ridiculous offer that he can find no reason to pass up (ie. Ovechkin and Backstrom)
Ovechkin and Backstrom better come with a rink.
I’m not kidding about rioting! And I went to Queen’s so I apparently have experience with riots.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Ottawa fans wouldn't riot.
We could lose the ECF to Toronto in overtime of game 7 on a goal by Daniel Alfredsson who was traded to the Leafs at the deadline for J.S. Giguere and Brett Lebda and Ottawa fans still would’t riot. It’s not part of Ottawa’s DNA (when was the last time there was anything even resembling a real riot in Ottawa?) and the rink is so far from downtown that there’d be no real epicentre for it.
Come to think of it… I get it now! That must be why they built the thing all the way out there! Such visionaries, they were!
It's true
Ottawa’s solution to every problem is to blame Spezza and then suggest we trade him because he sucks.
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Well to be fair
If Spezza hadn’t made that blind pass that Alfie intercepted in the neutral zone allowing him to bury the puck behind Anderson sending the Leafs to the Final, we wouldn’t be having this discussion, now would we?
So it really is Spezza’s fault.
I didn't say the fans would collectively riot, I said I would.
And tear down the rink with my bare hands.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Thats right
We couldn’t riot at SBP anyway because it would be in ruins after the Alfie trade.
by anothersensfan on Jun 23, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok not a litteral riot Vancouver style
I’m saying people would be quite upset though.
Haha - so Ottawa!
Headline on the Citizen next day: “CITY RIOTS”
Subhead: “Jaywalking and rudeness epidemic across the region”
by dzuunmod on Jun 23, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You don't think I can cause a riot?
Be prepared for my rioting skills. If they ever trade Alfie.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Genuine question.
Ottawa fans seem to be more adamant about not trading Alfie than Flames fans about not trading Iginla. In Alfie’s case, it’s like there can’t even be a conversation about it, whereas Flames fans (in my experience) are more pragmatic, and willing to consider what the return might be.
The two guys are two of the most similar players that I can think of in the league in terms of skill and heart and their career arcs. Why the difference in terms of how protective the fanbases are of them?
I think this is dead on
Yashin ripped the hearts out of the fans of this franchise with his off-the-ice antics. He acted like a mercenary. Alfredsson is the polar opposite: he acts like he loves the franchise and the city. He’s earned the undying loyalty of Sens fans because of the way he filled the hole that Yashin created. I don’t think Calgary had that same experience, so the attachment to Iginla isn’t as fanatic.
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I hadn't even considered that.
I was thinking more along the lines of, we are a younger franchise than Calgary and we don’t have Mike Vernon and Joe Nieuwendyk and a Stanley Cup victory to fall back on, and people just want some sort of tangible history that’s ours.
Also true
But I think a lot of the fans feel that way because of how Alfie stepped up when Yashin was being an asshat. Seriously, I hate that guy more than anyone who has ever played in the NHL. Except Dany Heatley.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Also, franchise hsitory
There are plenty of legendary Flames players. There are no legendary Senators players, aside from Alfredsson.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 23, 2011 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
If Giggles doesn't get traded
I’d expect him to break a lot of Alfie’s offensive club records. But for now, yes that is true.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
You'd hope so.
With Karlsson feeding him the puck and a solid winger, you’d hope for a return to the 2007 Senators with less Douchetardiness.
Alfie's legend extends far beyond his point scoring
You know this, Adnan!
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 23, 2011 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh I am used to your disapproval ;)
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Doubtful
He needs to win a Cup in Ottawa to have any chance of touching Alfie’s legend. I mean, Alfie practically saved the franchise single-handedly.
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Younger fans won't remember that
If Spezza ends with like 1200 points, he will logically have put a few great moments in there and become a legend. Until some one else passes him.
But in any case, I never said he will become a bigger legend than Alfie in my opinion. I just said he will become a legend. And that he will break a lot of Alfie’s scoring records.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Well, I don't know if a bulk of points necessarily implies great moments
But this is one of our sillier debates, since I think Spezza actually will get the team another shot at the Cup.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 23, 2011 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone's exendable for a "stupid good" price
Even Gretzky got traded… albeit alot of it involved cash, which you can’t do anymore.
Better question that should answer your question...
If you have Crosby A & Crosby B is one of those Crosby’s expendable?
Probably not if you can afford them both.
I would agree with that
Though the difference in impact between Crosby and Karlsson is pretty significant. Karlsson has an impressive skill set, but it’s by no means elite.
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Isn't that Crosby and Malkin?
Speaking of which, any chance Pittsburgh would trade Malkin …
[warms hands over impending flamewar]
Kuba for Malkin
Let’s just get it out of the way right now.
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Malkin is going to the Kings, get it straight!
by modsuperstar on Jun 23, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
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