Senators UFA dossier: Ryan Shannon
by DarrenM on Jun 12, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
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One of the more difficult decisions that Bryan Murray has to make this season is whether or not to re-sign UFA Ryan Shannon. Although Shannon had a good season -- he posted career highs in goals, assists, and points -- an influx of youth is threatening to take his roster spot away. Right now, the Senators already have nine forwards signed to one-way deals, and Bobby Butler will almost certainly make it 10 in the coming weeks. Toss in the player drafted at sixth overall and the multitude of players vying for a spot on the team, is there room for Shannon? Bryan Murray recently said he'll talk to Shannon's agent about keeping him as he's a "very useful player and a great team guy", but also noted that there are a couple of kids who could take his spot.
Contract status: Shannon is an unrestricted free agent who was on a $625,000, one-way contract last season.
Season in review: Shannon got off to a decent start to the season before having a mediocre middle few months. However, he turned it on in the last couple of months when injuries and trades gave him a bigger role in the top six (all five of his powerplay goals came after February 14th). His ability to play in both the bottom and top-six proved very helpful for a team with as many injuries and changes as Ottawa. He finished seventh on the team in points, and was the only Ottawa Senator to play more than 30 games and have a plus/minus above 0.
Comparable players: It's hard to find players that are comparable to Shannon in the league because there are so few players that are as small as Shannon that aren't young, offensive dynamos (like Nathan Gerbe or Tyler Ennis). Therefore, I tried to find players that were in their mid-to-late 20s, 6'0" or under, and who put up similar point totals.
Letestu might be the best comparable for Shannon. He's under 6'0", only a couple years younger, and posted near identical point totals without having a role as an enforcer (which can increase a player's payday). Letestu just signed his first one-way deal with the Penguins, and it's a two-year contract with a $625,000 cap hit.
Remember this guy? This former Senator is certainly a different player than Shannon (and a few inches taller), but he actually provides a pretty decent comparison. His point totals are similar and he is not, by any means, an overly physical presence. Eaves' contract last year was a one-way, one-year deal worth $750,000.
Wellwood offers a pretty good comparison for Shannon. He's an undersized forward of the same age who never seems to be able to find his role -- not good enough for top six, not big enough for bottom six. He posted nearly identical numbers to Shannon in 2008-09, then earned $1.2M in 2009-10 and again posted similar numbers to Shannon. He then headed off to Russia that offseason, and when he returned to North America, he earned $650,000 as a member of the Sharks.
Conclusion:
If Shannon is to get re-signed by the Ottawa Senators, it's likely to be somewhere between $650,000 and $850,000 (or, at least, that's what it should be, if Bryan Murray wasn't doing the signing) and on a short term contract of one or two years. The biggest question is not what the dollars will be, but whether Shannon is signed at all. The Senators are really pushing for a youth movement, and Shannon might be a casualty of that. I'd love to see him back as I am a big fan of Shannon's high hockey IQ and his versatility, but it wouldn't be a huge shock if the Senators decide they don't have room for him anymore.
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I like Shannon. I think he gives good leadership and is a good mentor to the younger guys.
He can appreciate what Da Costa, Butler, Greening and Winchester have gone through being a college grad himself, and if you trade him, only Neil, Alfie, Michalek and Spezza remain as veteran forwards.
He’s worth signing IMO. I think they need someone reliable, and that’s Shannon. Plus, he now has twitter!
And he also has a great nickname! El Chihuahua Enojado!
only Neil, Alfie, Michalek and Spezza remain as veteran forwards
I would count Foligno as an established veteran, though clearly he hasn’t reached his potential (and who knows, maybe never will) topping out at ~17 goals, ~33 points.
Your point, though, is a good one (and I reiterated it down below):
we can’t have all rookies and unproven players.
Having ~5 out of 12 veterans at F,
and arguably only 4 proven, experienced veterans on D (Phillips, Kuba, Carkner, and Gonchar; Cowen and Rundblad are true rookies, Lee has never had a full year in the lineup, and Karlsson is clearly still developing, especially in his own zone),
will make things tough for the incoming coach, and general competiveness, next year.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Jun 12, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
At that price, he's worth signing
He’d be too versatile and too cheap to pass up.
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I still don't get why Greening got a 1-way deal
Ideally, I’d take Shannon over Greening. But it looks like there might not be room for him.
by TheGuineaPig on Jun 12, 2011 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Agree 100%
Greening was great in the NHL and had a good AHL rookie year (and disappointing playoff), but Shannon has done more at this level than Greening has. Shannon is a borderline topsix player (at least on our rebuilding team) and can help the PK large, and can shoot from the point on the second team PP.
Greening may never be more than a grinder. He could be like Foligno, he could be like Winchester. We don’t know.
Handing out NHL one way contracts, for more dollars than what would seem Greening’s agent even came to the table asking (given Lee, Winchester, Carkner, and Shannon’s contracts), doesn’t seem like a good habit. Hopefully GM BM works this bad habit out of his system by the time we become a cap team/contender again.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Jun 12, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Greening's one way deal
Greening will not be protected from waivers next year so there is no point to a two way contract
by anothersensfan on Jun 13, 2011 3:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, welcome!
Although there would be a point, because if he’s assigned to the minors before the season, he won’t have to clear waivers and will be paid an AHL salary, rather than the full NHL salary.
The fact that he isn’t protected from waivers means we wouldn’t be able to send him down and call him up over and over again without exposing him on waivers, but it wouldn’t prevent us from sending him to the AHL at the outset if he’s taken a step back.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 13, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks, Great site
If you think Greening would clear waivers then you value him less than BM and I do.
You may be right. The problem is it only takes one GM to disagree with you and he’s gone.
by anothersensfan on Jun 13, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
No, that's not what I mean
I don’t think he would have to clear waivers if he was assigned to Binghamton before the end of training camp. I could be mistaken, but I’m under the impression he’d only have to clear waivers if he’s recalled or demoted during the course of the season.
I agree that if he were placed on waivers, he’d likely get picked up by another team. He’s a good young player on a well-priced contract.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 13, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think he would
Guys like Greening clear waivers every week in the NHL. I think you’re vastly overrating what Greening brings to the organization, and with the cap as tight as it is, teams aren’t going to pick up a fringe guy. See: Lee, Brian.
by TheGuineaPig on Jun 13, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point
We could safely get him to Binghamton but he would still go through re-entry waivers when we bring him up. On the other hand if he sucks he wont have any problem clearing waivers.
The contract suggests BM believes in him and Colin’s 24 games last year suggest he’s right..
Greening will be a 25 yr old rookie playing for an unknown coach. Who knows what will happen.
This is the fun of our rebuild . We’ll have to wait and see.
by anothersensfan on Jun 13, 2011 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he's a great depth guy
He’s been alright with being used as a 13th forward, but he’s also able to step up into the lineup, which is great.
As much as the incoming young guys will push him, though, the possibility of Murray signing a new top-six forward (which he’s said he’s looking to do) will mean there really is no room for Shannon. (Unless he wants a two-way deal, but I don’t think he’d be too anxious about that.)
He’s in the same place right now that Dean McAmmond and Shean Donovan were in past seasons, except he’s much younger than either of those two were. He’ll find a spot somewhere.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 12, 2011 12:31 PM EDT reply actions
Worth it for 2 years, ~800,000 per
He helped the PK large, and his speed is useful whether on the second line or the fourth.
He is not truly a second line center, but we are rebuilding, and he would be a nice veteran fill in (we can’t play all rookies) until we get one better down the road.
Greening, Condra, Smith and perhaps Butler, arguably don’t deserve one way (and thus guaranteed NHL spots) for the upcoming year, yet GM Murray has already given out two such contracts, with perhaps two more on the way. Shannon should be in the mix too, given that he has shown more at this level than any of the other four. With his NHL experience, I think he deserves a one-way easily, and probably in the 800,000 range (a nice raise) but then I am troubled by the NHL dollars they guaranteed Greening….sometimes GM BM makes me wonder.
So long as the Coach is allowed to play the best players possible, we can have
Michalek-Spezza-Alfredsson
Foligno-Shannon-Butler
Regin-Z. Smith-Condra
Greening-Winchester-Neil
with only the top line, Foligno, and Neil’s spots guaranteed. 5 (!!!) out of 12 spots only are given.
Every one else has to earn it, with challenges from Daugavins, O’brien, Da Costa, Cannone, Hamilton, Petersson, Silfverberg (if he’s in North America next year), Potulny, Wick….
Just please (outside of Shannon) no more one way contracts!!!!!!
by DontfeedtheBelak on Jun 12, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions
Da Costa
I don’t think starting him out in the minors is a bright idea. The reason we’re able to sign so many college free agents is because we actually play them. I don’t think Cannone expects to be in the NHL next year, but Da Costa definitely does. I think squandering Da Costa and losing him when he’s an RFA isn’t worth giving Shannon, Winch, or Condra playing time.
I see your point
But if Da Costa wants to play hockey at any level worth its salt,
he’s going to stay in North America.
Before college, he was willing to play in the NAHL and USHL in places like Sioux City and Texas in order to increase his chances at a NCAA run. And, like you said, he’s a RFA, not like he’s got a good chance to jump to another team.
I don’t think he will bristle at starting the year in the minors. I agree, the pull of playing soon in the NHL played some factor in pulling Butler, Winchester, Cannone, and Hamilton as young UFAs. If he looks good in Bingo, then call him up, like Butler.
No point in having him in the NHL on a checking line for 6 min a game, anyway (it wasn’t just Clouston, most coaches don’t really throw inexperienced guys in the lineup that quickly).
I, like you, am looking forward to seeing Da Costa here, but I am not too worried about losing him as a prospect (I do fear that Daugavins and Wick may leave, though, especially Kaspars, who has toiled and paid his dues in the AHL….Wick is also older and may not be willing to ride buses with good $$$ waiting for him in the Swiss League).
by DontfeedtheBelak on Jun 12, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
There weren't likely promises made
At least not beyond an NHL debut last season. Da Costa would have signed here because he got a huge signing bonus last year, got to play a couple of NHL games right away, and saw plenty of opportunities in Ottawa given the shallowness at forward (and perhaps some off-ice reasons, like a good organization and the proximity to Quebec). He would have known that a two-way contract means he needs to earn a roster spot in training camp, and if he doesn’t, he’ll start things off in the AHL.
If we tell every college prospect they’ll be a walk-on to the Sens lineup, it won’t help the team; we’ll get as many scrubs as we’ll get actual NHLers.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 12, 2011 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Clearly handing anyone a spot is a poor decision. I was mostly opposed to pencilling in Shannon as the second line centre and having Da Costa in the AHL. I agree he needs to earn his ice time, but if we have decided that next year is a rebuilding one doesn’t it make more sense to allow players with untapped potential to get more time rather than known quantities. I am not arguing that players like Winchester, Shannon, and Condra aren’t NHLers. I am saying that Da Costa has the chance to be more than a third/fourth liner and I would prefer to find that out rather than giving any of the three above mentioned guys 10 minutes a game. No point in half assing the rebuild and holding onto players who fill easily replaceable roles over potential top six guys.
But Butler earned that same chance by proving himself in the AHL last year
Why wouldn’t the same be true for Da Costa?
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I agree.
Why shouldn’t Da Costa prove himself in the AHL as Butler has, or, for that matter, Robin Lehner, who, unlike Da Costa, faces much stiffer competition for a spot on the big club?
Sure, sign him, but...
He can’t be more than 1 million. The idea of 650k is ridiculous to a guy with his experience. Letetsu is on his first 1 way contract so isn’t a good comaprison. Neither is Eves who is getting paid top stay on the Wings rather than for his stats.Wellwood isn’t a decent comparo either given the circumstances surrounding his signing.
Given that we have given Greening almost 820k, I don’t see how we can give Shannon less. Since we are asking him to take on leadership roles, then we need to account for that.
That said, is there no one else we could get with more upside? Jeff Tambellini? As long as we are doing a youth movement, let do it.
Thoughts?
I think you’re very much right that 650K is ridiculous for Shannon, and that’s the bottom of what I anticipate he makes. Then again, that’s more than what he earned on his last contract, and it’s not like he has done a whole bunch to deserve a huge raise, has he? I think around $800K is appropriate, but we’ll see what happens.
As for the comparisons being off, you’re right. The problem is finding players with a similar career path and skill set as Shannon — it’s near impossible to find.
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I think the challenge with bringing in someone with more upside is that we'd still have a limited number of roster spots
There’s no real benefit to adding someone else if they’re not going to get ice time, you know? And if they do, who do you bump? If it’s, say, Greening or Z. Smith, then why did you sign them to a contract?
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No but...
No he hasn’t done a lot to warrant a raise, but the way the salary structure of the NHL generally has gone he almost didn’t have to, nevermind the Sens own structure. Greening’s signing and DaCosta’s really throw things I think.
The thing for me is that I only sign him if I can’t find better on the open market. I think there are guys with more upside who are younger we could sign. At this point Shanon is what he is and nothing more. I would be more inclined to change things up.
Re-sign Shannon
If he can be signed in the 700M-900M region then I would definitely like to see him back. The great thing about Shannon is his versatility and his attitude. That kind of thing will not only be valuable when patching up the line-up due to injuries, but it will also be a good example for the young guys.
I would definitely bring Shannon back as long as he is not looking for big money or a guaranteed role.
700M and 900M?
That’s a lot above the salary cap! :P
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
You are unfairly assuming he's talking about dollars
Maybe he means pesos.
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Actually...
It’s a fairly common practice to use ‘M’ to denote thousands of dollars. It’s confusing, but it is linked back to the french word for thousand, ‘mille’.
The more you know…
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 13, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
needs to be signed
Shannon has shown that he can step in anywhere in the lineup. Even if they only had a spot in the press box for him some nights, I’d rather see him filling that role than one of the younger players.
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