What CapGeek Tells Us About the 2011-12 Senators: A Conservative Outlook
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 3:24 AM EDT
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PrintEditor's note: User Buz Killington steps away from our fantasies of adding every possible high-end player to our team for Kuba and some used diapers to take a more realistic look at what Ottawa's roster might look like next year with no major splashes by Bryan Murray.
Presumably some of you have seen or made use of the tremendous Cap Calculator application over on the CapGeek.com website. Those who haven't should certainly check it out. It allows users to fill in the missing links for the rosters of NHL teams by adding players and assigning cap hits for them.
When you look at the contracts on the books for the Sens in 2011-12, certain truths become evident. Barring trades or buyouts, our lineup is largely already set. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of trades by any means, especially with the draft approaching and the unique circumstances surrounding this particular draft year for the Senators.
But it is a fool's game to try and predict what players, if any, will be removed from the roster before the season starts. With that in mind, this is my conservative outlook for next years roster. By conservative, I mean that I have not jettisoned any current contracts (somehow I overcame the urge to buy out Kuba), and I have not made any opulent UFA signings.
Below you will find my mockup of next years team, and my reasoning behind the roster moves. I'm sure there will be much disagreement over my choices and I encourage everyone to head to GapGeek and have their own go at the Cap Calculator. You can publish your roster there after you've made it and post the link in the comments. My roster can be found here: http://bit.ly/kVrXYM and my explanation follows below the jump.
Let's start with the basics:
We have 17 players (10 forwards, 6 defencemen, 1 goalie) under one-way contracts for next season.
So first off, we need a backup goalie. I chose Johan Hedberg, but it could easily be any one of Curtis McElhinney, Alex Auld, Josh Harding, Ty Conklin, Brian Boucher, or Mathieu Garon, all of whom are UFA's and would likely cost $1-1.5M. One of the best parts of the Cap Calculator is you can sort UFA's and RFA's by position and by previous cap hit, so you can quickly identify what free agents can fill your team's needs. Signed: Hedberg (~1.1M)
Next, the defence. 6 are already under contract and unless my dreams come true and Kuba is traded or bought out, none of them are going anywhere. I suppose Brian Lee could be moved but it seems unlikely at this point. That leaves 1 open spot for our two young stud D-men. It goes to Runblad. He is older, has been playing against men for 3 years, was the best defencemen in the SEL last year, and is Hockey Futures prospect of the year. I don't think he is coming across the pond to play in the A. And keep in mind that he is the same age as Karlsson. Added: Runblad (1.5M)
Jared Cowen, on the other hand, will probably benefit from some more time in the AHL, as has been suggested by Coach KK himself. And until we can move Kuba or B. Lee, that is where he will be.
Now for the forwards. This is most interesting part of the exercise. However we already have 10 under one-way contracts. Bobby Butler is most certainly going to play for the Sens next year. He is an RFA, and his expiring contract was worth .9M. I gave him a raise up to 1.2M. It could be a little more, but it shouldn't be much more and the exact amount is not that important. Also, although he is an UFA, I resigned Ryan Shannon, giving him a modest raise from 625,000 to 925,000. He may very well get more than that on the open market, but again the exact price isn't really that important since I am not going to be pushing the cap ceiling here.
That brings us up to 12 forwards, and 21 players in total. That leaves two roster spots remaining. I believe the Senators usually carry 14 forwards if I'm not mistaken, with two forwards and one d-man in the press box every night. So we have room for two more forwards and 10M in cap space.
Two things BMurr has said are relevant here. The first is that he will be making a UFA signing. The second is that they had planned to draft a forward who will play in the NHL next year.
As the roster is currently composed, our most glaring weakness among several is (as it traditionally is) at 2nd line centre. Right now, that duty would have to fall to either Regin or Da Costa.
I think if we were still drafting in the top 5, that role could be filled by Coutourier or Hurburdeau. However, I am not convinced that our 6th overall pick (Strome?, Zibanejad?) could step into that role. For this reason I have chosen to add a UFA C.
It is really interesting to look at the UFA forwards on CapGeek. This year's crop is low on elite players but there are tons of serviceable NHLs available, mostly older veterans, many more than I realized.
Ultimately I chose to sign Tim Connolly, because if I was GM I would be looking for somebody with scoring ability rather than grit to fill the 2nd line C spot. Now I know he is about the most unreliable player imaginable because of his injury history, but he is also a bonafide producer when healthy and could be a great complement for Alfie. I do not think his new salary will match the 4.5M he was making before and I think for 3.5-4M this is a gamble I would make.
Alternatively, here are some of the players that might interest the Sens: Simon Gagne, Michael Ryder, Erik Cole, Tomas Fleischmann, Scottie Upshall, Brooks Laich, Jussi Jokinen, Alex Tanguay, Tomas Kopecky, or Chris Higgins.
I think Tanguay could be an interesting option if he came cheaply. I am putting the focus on somebody who can produce some offence in tandem with Alfredsson, as I believe we have enough checkers.
You could also choose just to try to slot in our 6th overall pick or play Regin or Da Costa in that spot. With the pick, there is the possibility the player could be a Skinner and step in as an 18-year-old. Or he could be more like Kadri and need time in the AHL or even more time in junior. Given that the draft is considered weak I am going to leave the pick off the NHL club for this year. With one spot remaining that will likely be a healthy scratch I would bring up Condra, who can rotate in and out of the lineup with Winchester, Greening, and possibly Zach Smith.
Signed: Butler (1.2M), Shannon (.925M), Connolly (3.5M), Condra (.8M)
And there you have it. The finished product:
| FORWARDS (14) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Milan Michalek ($4,333,333) | Jason Spezza ($7,000,000) | Bobby Butler ($1,200,000) |
| Nick Foligno ($1,200,000) | Tim Connolly ($3,500,000) | Daniel Alfredsson ($4,875,000) |
| Peter Regin ($1,000,000) | Stephane Da Costa ($1,325,000) | Ryan Shannon ($925,000) |
| Colin Greening ($816,667) | Zack Smith ($700,000) | Chris Neil ($2,000,000) |
| Erik Condra ($800,000) | Jesse Winchester ($750,000) | |
| DEFENSEMEN (7) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Gonchar ($5,500,000) | David Rundblad ($1,500,000) | |
| Chris Phillips ($3,083,333) | Erik Karlsson ($1,300,000) | |
| Filip Kuba ($3,700,000) | Matt Carkner ($700,000) | |
| Brian Lee ($875,000) | ||
| GOALTENDERS (2) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson ($3,187,500) | ||
| Johan Hedberg ($1,200,000) | ||
| BUYOUTS (3) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Cheechoo ($1,166,667) | ||
| Daniel Alfredsson ($700,000) | ||
| Ray Emery ($562,500) | ||
| SUMMARY (totals compiled without the bonus cushion) | ||
|---|---|---|
| ROSTER SIZE | 23 | |
| SALARY CAP | $59,400,000 | |
| CAP PAYROLL | $53,900,000 | |
| BONUSES | $1,875,000 | |
| CAP SPACE | $5,500,000 | |
Dont worry too much about the line combinations and defense pairings.
Now let's see what you all come up with.
Cheers
This FanPost was written by a member of the Silver Seven community, and does not necessarily reflect the beliefs or opinions of the site managers, editors, or Sports Blogs Nation, Inc.
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I have a question about bonuses
I have used capgeek to check out cap hits, but never noticed that app.
One question I have is, CapGeek always lists the maximum salary, including bonuses. If you click on Rundblad though, you will notice that his salary is $900k with $600k in bonuses. Now, I know bonuses are applied the year after they are earned.
However, I have have been reading rumours that the upcoming season has no bonus cushion and that all potential bonuses are applied before they are achieved. Is this true?
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I've read the same things
My simple-minded understanding is that all bonuses for the upcoming years are applied assuming they will be achieved and then retroactive cushion will be given if they’re not at the end of the year.
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What is special about next year?
Is it the last season of current CBA or something?
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Yep
Why this suddenly means bonuses have to count differently is probably the result of some scumbag lawyer decision I can’t begin to speculate on. I can’t imagine why it would matter, but I know Labor Relations negotiations get really complicated really quickly.
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Bonuses Explained
Bonuses normally count in the year they happen. But the CBA does allow a team to go over the cap with bonuses by 7.5% of the cap amount. If a team is at the cap and then has a player get an unexpected bonus (see Chicago Blackhawks and Toews getting a multi-million dollar bonus for the Conn Smythe) then the bonus slides to the next year. This is why the Hawks are screwed this year, but should be fine next year.
But (big but) if there is no CBA set for next year (the CBA is expiring) then there is no next season to slide the bonus to. In that scenario, all bonuses need to be fully budgeted for in a team’s current cap situation. As the year goes on, some bonuses may become unreachable (e.g. games played, wins) and the team would gain some breathing room on their cap, but rookies with $3 million bonuses for winning the Conn Smythe would use up a lot of cap space until it is too late.
Welcome to the site!
And thanks for posting this… it makes sense to me.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 11, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I like That Lineup actually
But it assumes that the top draft pick be Strome or somebody else who can’t play this year. I’d love BM to trade up for Landeskog. I also feel that at least half a year should be spent with internal prospects battling to try and prove that they can fill the 2C and 3C positions. Foligno, DaCosta, Smith, Regin, and Shannon are all fairly legit POSSIBILITIES here. And at the very least, we’ll really know our potential at centre by the end of the year. Also, I am a proponent (as I suspect you are) of trying to play the shit out of Kuba, hoping he plays well, trade him at the deadline, and bring up Cowan then. So my D would be the same as yours. Just my top 6 would look like this:
Landeskog / Spezza / Butler
Michalek / DaCosta (Regin? Smith? Shannon? Foligno?) / Alfredsson
It’s shaky and uncertain, but it would be fun to watch for a year
shaky and uncertain
but so goes rebuilding.
I, like you, would rather see what we have in the younger guys,
than sign a perhaps overpaid, older UFA center.
I am all for Shannon for a cheap, lesser stopgap second line center.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Jun 10, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't think Lando's ready to step into a first line role
Especially with the blazing finish Michalek had to last year. No need to throw anyone right into the fire.
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This seems pretty much spot-on to me.
Thanks to some of the recent signings, the roster definitely looks almost complete (and I agree that Shannon will most likely be back with a slight raise on a short-term contract). Murray is hardly secretive about his off-season strategies, and the addition of a significant UFA forward seems inevitable. His comments regarding drafting an NHL-ready player made sense when the Sens were hanging out in the Eastern Conference basement, but it seems much less feasible now that they’re picking sixth.
Unless one or two of the teams ahead of them (NY? NJ?) opt to fill their glaring roster deficiencies by picking a defenceman like Dougie Hamilton and thus leave one of the top four forwards available, it’ll probably end up being either Strome or Zibanejab at six, and neither of them appear to be physically mature enough to jump straight to top-six minutes in the NHL.
As for filling the #2 Center spot behind, I would personally opt for someone like Brooks Laich over Connolly. Laich may not have the pure skill that TC does, but he’s more versatile and more durable. Plus, the Sens never should have traded him away in the first place. That Bondra deal was the worst.
The only other wrinkle in this scenario is the possibility of a draft-day trade. Signing Greening and Condra, et al, would appear to open the door for Murray to package someone like Regin or Foligno in a deal either for (a) a higher first-round pick, (b) a slightly older prospect from a previous draft year a la Rundblad, or © an RFA-type player from a cap-strapped team like Philly or a budget-constrained squad like Phoenix. Any one of these scenarios could yield a top-six forward in addition to the UFA signing. Given Alfie’s questionable health, it seems imperative that the Sens land more than one offensive threat to complement their over-abundance of decent bottom-six forwards.
As for Hedberg, we can only hope! I like Garon as well, but I’d love to see the Moose in a Sens uni for a season or two. He really proved his worth when Brodeur went down with a wonky elbow last year.
Interesting exercise
and ripe with possibilities for us now in the rebuilding stage.
I myself, would have Da Costa at least start/plan for AHL action, unless he dominates in training camp, stay away from Connolly, and have Cowen here.
I wouldn’t worry about getting a Connolly or a UFA topsix center;
UFA is what got us into trouble with Gonchar and Kovalev, and since we are rebuilding,
we can go at it like the mid-90s Sens with lesser guys until we develop our own.
Michalek-Spezza-Alfredsson
Foligno-Shannon-Butler
Greening-Z. Smith-Condra
Regin-Winchester-Neil
with first tier callups being of the O’Brien, Da Costa, Daugavins group. Maybe Potulny if he resigns and plays well early in camp/AHL.
Gonchar-Karlsson
Phillips-Cowen
Lee-Rundblad
Carkner
(with Kuba bought out, and callups going to Gryba or Weircioch).
Anderson
Conklin (my preference).
by DontfeedtheBelak on Jun 10, 2011 11:48 AM EDT reply actions
I like this lineup.
My issue is on defence. Kuba takes up a roster spot, but if a team needs a PMD – and he has shown he can play that role – then trade his ass and get Lee up permanently. I think he needed time to figure out his game, and last season he seemed a lot more poised than he has been. He’s good when he’s given one task to do (like Big Game Chris) but ask any more and he crumbles. Pair him with someone offensively talented and I think he’ll thrive.
As for forwards, I’m wary about adding people through RFA and UFA signings. Let our current guys push for a spot in camp – we don’t need another Kovalev type situation where we have a guy taking up a roster spot for no reason. But yeah – that’s a pretty good estimation of where we’ll start I think.
Yes, Kuba should be moved at the first offer
His only real value to the team is his trade potential. I’d rather have Lee in there as well.
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Side note
Puck Daddy has an article about Paul MacLean for the next coach.
With his previous ties to Murray, and an endorsement (based on whatever part he’s played in Detroit’s success) from the Wings and Babcock,
I really like this hire.
The ’stache is terrific, too.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Jun 10, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
I like this
Great work.
I haven’t made a lineup yet, but one thing I’d consider is signing Chris Drury. He’s well past his prime, but I think he’d look good in between Daniel Alfredsson and another winger (perhaps Nick Foligno) on our third line—could you imagine? Foligno would do the dirty work, but the intelligence and leadership of the other two could do wonders for some of the developing players on the roster.
Doing so would require a lot of young players to play some very hefty minutes, though; bumping Alfredsson to the third line (really more of a 2B position) would mean someone like whoever we draft this season, Zack Smith, Peter Regin, or Stephane Da Costa will have to be willing and able to step up and play second-line minutes, with someone like Ryan Shannon, Erik Condra, or Colin Greening playing his wings. Probably not likely.
Still, the temptation of Drury for relatively cheap seems like something worth considering.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 10, 2011 1:23 PM EDT reply actions
Alright, I made one:
The reason I added Drury was because he’s about to be bought out, and I think his salary would be in the $2.5M range. If he wanted higher, well, then I’d pass.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 10, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think I'd prefer Drury over Connolly as well
I still think of Drury as the most clutch player in the NHL.
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Drury has lost a step
I read up about him before the trade deadline on the rangers blogs, apparently those following him are very disappointed in the signing and say he’s done and not the guy that everyone remembers in Buffalo.
My preference for BM’s UFA signing is Juicy Jokinen!
Jussi’s big & tough and scores a lot. But there’s gonna be a lot of interest in him, so it’s not just a matter of BM walking into the shop and whipping out the card, so to speak.
Jokinen
I like him more than older guys like Connelly or Drury. As you said the Sens might be outbid for him, but it would be worth at least taking a punt with a reasonable offer. If he turns it down then move on to the Drury/Connelly types.
Good plan
Connolly is also good but fragile, to many scrambled eggs en la cabeza.
We were short on goals last year after heatley left and alfie was injured, so I’m voting for someone who can manufacture some offense, rather than rely on a premier setup man to pot them. Jussi sounds like that type from what I’ve heard and seen in highlights, although I admit I’ve watched very few Hurricanes games (not since they beat up on the Sens in the playoffs :( ).
Also Laich sounds like a solid guy, but he plays on Washington and has some pretty elite teammates. I’m not sure how his production would go if Alfie were injured and he was working with foligno/shannon/regin.
If all else fails, I’m actually moderately fond of signing Radim Vrbata on a short term deal. The knock on him is he never lives up to expectations and is poor on the defensive side of things. That said, he consistently puts up close to 20 goals and 40-50 points (i.e. solid 2nd line #s) despite his coaches demoting him to lower lines and being a healthy scratch at times. I think he could be a stop gap for a season (or two, with no NMC so we can trade him if a prospect steps up before the contract is up).
After having vrbata on one of my fantasy teams this season
I can tell you that he is incredibly inconsistent. Great for two weeks and then dissapears for a month.
by Buz Killington on Jun 10, 2011 10:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Agree
I’ve had him in hockey pools too. I never pick him up until the end when guys like 2nd round picks from the last draft are being considered ;) My point though is that he puts up more points than people give him credit for, that’s why I’m saying to do this if all else fails. Better Vrbata than Chad Larose.
Drury has a bum knee
This might all be a bunch of hooey, but according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post Drury’s knee is shot and they won’t be able to buy him out. Even if he passes a physical with his knee and can be bought out, the fact that his knee is in a condition where this is even a possibility makes signing him a big no-no for me.
Well thought out.
The real point here is not so much specific pplayers as the representative of a type of player. I think this is a very reasonable proposition for a lineup, the moreso since it assumes BMurr doesn’t decide to derail the senate reform with a really big FA signing.
Very nice.
Cowen
I agree with starting him in the AHL next season. There has not been a year recently where the Senators have not had injuries on defense, so Cowen will be up with the big club at some point in the season and probably will stick after that (assuming Kuba gets traded for a bag of pucks at the deadline).
Let him develop in the AHL.
Don’t rush his development. If Rundblad is as good as he seems, he’ll be a 3/4 or 5/6 guy for now and better Cowen gets to play a higher level of game than just ride the pine the whole season.
Gonchar – Karlsson
Phillips – Rundblad
Kuba – Carkner
Lee
There’s no reason to rush Cowen up – let him develop down there and lead there – same as he did in the WJHL or whatever league he was in earlier.
Yep
I can’t think of a single reason to rush Cowen except to hurry Kuba out the door — and as much as I want Kuba gone, that’s not a good reason. We don’t need Cowen in the lineup on opening day.
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Agreed
It isn’t like we are expecting to win it all in the next year. Best to let Cowen develop so that when the time comes he will be primed to make the biggest contribution to the team’s success.
Making room on D
Having a really good callup like Cowen ready for NHL duty is the start of having a really solid defence. Back in the days when we had a great D, we had two or three pretty much NHL-ready D in the system ready to step in when the inevitable injuries happened. If we first make sure he’s one of the horses at the AHL level, and then he comes in brimming.
At the same time, I believe that BM will pull something off that makes some room on D, either with Kuba or Lee… hopefully Kuba.
I would have even recommended trading Kuba for Drury and sucking up his salary because his deal is only for one year. That’d give us time to develop a top six center from within. It’s only $ 3.3 mill extra for one year. Easy to say when it’s not my money. :-)
Kuba Might Surprise
Kuba had a terrible year last year, but he might surprise folks this year. He can play a lot of minutes, reliable defensively, and is a valuable offensive contributor … when healthy.
I think they’ll be looking to trade him if the right situation arises. If he has a great camp and another team gets a rash of D-man injuries then adios Filip. Otherwise he might be trade deadline fodder.
If he has the type of season he’s capable of then we should be looking to get at least a 2nd round pick for him.
That's the thing - if Kuba has a healthy season.
He could potentially be a great PMD, but 1) we have lots of those with Karlsson, Rundblad and Gonchar and 2) that’s a pretty damn huge if.
I imagine he’ll just ride out this season and then not be resigned. I doubt they’ll buy him out purely because of the minutes he eats up and I don’t think Lee is ready to be a regular 5/6 guy with Carkner.
I believe Kuba actually will surprise
This is his first healthy offseason in two years. I’m expecting he plays well enough to get traded, though I doubt his value is much more than a 3rd round pick.
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 11, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha, what Sens fan wouldn't take that?
The tricky part is that it’s more up to Kuba than anyone else at this point. He needs to A) Stay healthy and B) Actually produce for any of this to happen. Given his recent history, neither of those are guaranteed.
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Most important: It's a contract year
The last time Kuba played a contract year for the Senators, he scored 40 points. It’s obviously something that motivates him.
One problem, though: With Gonchar, Karlsson, and Rundblad on the blue line, Kuba will not get the kind of protected powerplay minutes that got him all those secondary assists in 2008-09. He is not a good even-strength defender.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 11, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
And this is the thing.
He won’t get the time on the PP. To be honest, I’d see how the season goes, and just ride it out with him as your 3/4 guy who gets bumped to 5/6 if Rundblad does well this year. If Kuba starts producing, great – he’s perfect trade bait. If he doesn’t, this is his last year anyhow.
This is pretty much exactly where I'm at
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Contract years
Apparently, the key to getting production out of Kuba over the remainder of his career will be to sign him to a series of 1 year deals. ;)
I like this Gonchar/Karlsson pairing a lot
I don’t buy this thing that a defenceman has to play with a partner that brings different skill sets. Why can’t you just use players that both have a good offensive skill set? If in theory, you will struggle defensively, you would also in theory be better off offensively?
I feel we didn’t try that pairing enough last season.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
That depends
If they get manhandled in their own zone and spend the whole shift trying to get the puck out then their offensive skills would be utterly useless. What you are espousing is roughly the theory that the Sens sought to employ early last season with disastrous results. Now that Gonchar has found his feet with the Sens this pairing may work, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
For me, Karlsson’s best period was when he was paired up with Sutton the season before this one. Sutton did the banging and digging and then fed the puck to Karlsson for him to work his magic. I’d imagine Karlsson-Cowen being a pretty interesting pairing someday in the future.
Right but if they stay in the offensive zone
Their defensive liabilities wouldn’t be an issue.
Karlsson was -30 last year, but that was mostly from a -25 in January/February. He spent most of that period with Chris Phillips, a stay at home guy.
Karlsson is never going to be a big guy, but I would hope that over the years, he’d become less dependent on being protected by his partner. But yeah, Karlsson/Cowen could be a great pairing down the road.
But if we are playing Gonchar, Phillips, Rundblad, Kuba and Carkner, out of those, I would pick Gonchar as Karlsson’s partner for next season.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Completely agree.
That’s why I like the:
Cowen/Karlsson
Phillips/Rundblad
Lee/Carkner
defensive line up. I think you’ve got a deep defence there as long as they can move it out of their end. And I think given the right set of forwards, they totally can.
Cowen - Karlsson?
I don’t see it working, at least not this season. Do we remember who Karlsson finished the season with… ? I’m drawing a blank.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 11, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
It was Kuba once Gonchar went down with the concussion, wasn't it?
I remember commenting pretty regularly that it didn’t look like Karlsson and Kuba trusted each other on the PP.
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Yes it was Kuba
I actually thought Karlsson/Kuba was a pretty decent pairing.
If I recall correctly, Karlsson/Gonchar only played together early in the season.
At the start of 2011, it was Karlsson/Phillips then after Campoli was traded, it Kuba switched from Campoli to Karlsson.
Here is a link with 5 on 5 partnerships
Karlsson played 32.7% of the season with Kuba, and 32% with Phillips.
It is interesting to note for Brian Lee, while he played 47.9% of the season with Phillips as a linemate, the next 7 most players on the ice with him were forwards. Either he played forward a lot, or he was playing with a lot of different defencemen before he settled with Phillips.
I would keep Phillips/Lee together. For Karlsson, my first preference with him would be Gonchar, then Kuba.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Those are my preferences as well
Considering that neither Lee nor Phillips looked any good until they were paired up, it feels silly to separate them.
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It's a good pairing. Two shut down guys.
Lee can learn a lot from Phillips about how to set up his game.
Yep
So:
Gonchar-Karlsson
Phillips-Lee
Kuba-Rundblad
Carkner can be 7th guy. I just don’t see any room for Cowen at all unless Kuba is some how traded. Now if Cowen has an amazing camp, then I am not sure what you do.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
You put him in the AHL and count your blessings!
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Well, if he has outplayed the other guys
Then he is ready for the NHL and should play. In theory anyway.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Yeah, in theory
I mean, if Murray feels he’s ready and can move a contract (KUBA) to make room, then he should without hesitation. If he can’t, then a year of Cowen dominating the AHL isn’t such a bad thing… it worked for Spezza, for instance.
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I like the idea of Cowen staying in the AHL for a year.
The jump from playing kids to men is a big one, and it might be good for his development to have an extra year. He’s not a lock for making the roster out of camp and its good to have the option of leaving him down there if he needs it.
Yeah, I'm willing to bet that a year in the AHL under KK will make him a Calder nominee in 2012-13
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by Mark Parisi on Jun 12, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I really want to see Bingo win the Calder again next year
That would go a long way for developing a culture in the big club.
Yep
Nice thing about a 90% set roster is that it makes it easier for us all to agree on what’s going/need to happen.
I think the most interesting part of the summer is going to be pre-season where we can see if any/whic of the recently signed b-sens and other prospects step forward in their development.
Will Da Costa toughen up? Will Butler snipe with regularity? Will Greening and Condra live up to our dreams that they’ll be effective 3rd/4th liners? Will Z Smith give a shit?
I am vehemently against signing Tim Connolly. I have a different idea...
Yes, we need to acquire one centre for sure. If we don’t land Jeff Carter, though, I think we ought to grit our teeth and acquire a depth centre rather than pay for a marginal second-line player who really doesn’t improve our team.
Connolly is a centre who is rarely seen in the centre of the ice; he’s always taking low angle shots and doesn’t go to the dirty areas. He’s never once scored 20 goals, ever. He doesn’t fit in here; we already have Regin available to underwhelm us with his soft outside play and penchant for injury. He could play the role of Connolly-lite for a third of the cost. Although I’d rather not have a perimeter player playing centre at all.
As it stands, we have a first line (Spezza) and two bottom six centres (Smith, Winchester), as well as two maybes for second and third line centre (Da Costa, Regin). As I said, I think Regin is best suited for wing. However, I think Da Costa will complement Alfie nicely as they weave and elude in similar ways, and think the game on the same wavelength (judging on Da Costa’s few games up), so I’m gonna pencil him in for second line centre, but that’s a question mark for sure.
My idea is (barring the acquisition of a bonafide scoring centre or the immediate transition of our #6 into the second line role) to sign a proven 4th line centre like Zenon Konopka for $900k or so.
Konopka will win most of his faceoffs, first and foremost. He’s an ace. He will also win many of his fights. He’s a battler. And most importantly, he’ll create room to allow Neil and Carkner to focus on the flow of the game rather than the emotional sub-plots. Both Neil and Carkner have more to offer than simply as fighters, and Konopka would facilitate that.
Immediately he makes Jesse Winchester expendable. I say good riddance; the guy can’t produce at all and doesn’t fight or intimidate. Konopka also bumps Z Smith to a 3rd line role, which is something I think we’re all hoping he would eventually attain, although that’s a toughie. Smith needs to produce more to justify that, but hey, he was able to in Bingo during the cup run, so lets hope he continues on that tangent. With 3rd line quality wingers it’s possible he bangs home more garbage and maybe even finds a scoring touch.
With tough guys like Konopka, Smith, and Neil in our bottom 6, it allows our smaller finesse guys like Alfie, Shannon (totally resign him, he’s like an Alfie-lite out there), Regin (not small, but plays like it), Da Costa, etc to play their game without the fear of being killed. We also have one of the softest defense cores in the league, so we neeeeed a tougher bottom six to accommodate for that fact.
So without any more explanation, this is my proposition for the moment.
Michalek – Spezza – Butler
Regin – Da Costa – Alfredsson
Foligno – Smith – Shannon
Greening – Konopka – Neil
First line is fairly obvious.
Second line is soft but silky smooth.
Third line is a mix of finesse and grit, and very cycle heavy.
Fourth line will keep the opposition honest, and threaten to score too.
It isn’t ideal, but I like Konopka at bottom centre more than the other two options, and Smith is certainly the candidate to fill in for Kelly. Here’s hoping Da Costa is the next college-based elite producer (think Parise). I like what I see in him and I think he can put up just under a point a game in his prime, IMO, so get him some time in with Alfie while it’s still possible.
I read all of it
It’s a lot of faith in Da Costa and Bustler, but I think swapping out Winchester for Konopka would be an upgrade.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
As opposed to? 2nd? 4th?
I think Zmith is a good third line guy. Tough, gritty, pesky – does everything you want that line to do.
My reservation is that his level of production would hinder the 3rd line. Dude puts up a point every 5.5 games on the 4th line. He’d have to put up a point every 3 games on the third line to justify his promotion. But again, he did improve his offensive output during the cup run, so there is a possibility that he’s riding a high into next year, and that with better linemates and more ice time his offense falls into place.
I’d want 25 points out of him over 80 games at the minimum.
I'm not the right person to ask because of my obvious bias
I think he can succeed there. He really needs to cut down on the penalties, but he looked really, really good in Bingo’s run. I think he’s capable of replacing Kelly (not on the PK, of course) as early as next year. Playing alongside Greening and Shannon would help him a lot. I’m not sure Foligno is the right linemate for him, but if they click, it’d just be one more time I’m wrong.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Hmmm. I agree with your logic, but don't know what we'd then do with Winchester.
What would Winchester have to do to be better than Konopka in your mind? Improved face off percentage? More fighting?
Overall contributions have to go way up
Winchester produces about as much as Konopka.. marginally more I suppose. But that’s offset by his lower faceoff percentage and his inability to intimidate and punish. And salaries would be a wash. Konopka would be an impact player of sorts, Winchester not so much.
Plus, Konopka is a former 67’s standout. The Bryan might as well get the documents in order today for July 1 if history tells us anything.
Interesting... but
I believe that BM is going to come through at the draft and get us a second line center one way or another. Pencilling in someone as green as Da Costa as second line center is REALLY optimistic. I love your optimism, but this guy has barely played.
Konopka would mean we’d need to lead the league in penalty killing to be any good. It’s great to win alot of faceoffs, but if you think Zack gets alot of stupid penalties… Zenon is the king in that category.
Pretty Reasonable
I’ve got it shaking out pretty much exactly like that. I’d prefer Laich over Connolly, but that’s the only difference. Either way, Bryan Murray’s free agent dealings should be limited to a second line center and a back-up goalie. Keep the cap space, and see which of the young guns (Butler, Greening, Condra, Da Costa) sink and which ones float. Next year’s free agent pool is deeper. The team will be one year older, and one year closer to being a competitive team again. Which, in turn, will make them more attractive to free agents.
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