Preview: Looking at 2011, 2012 Ottawa Senators
by karlssonfan65 on May 4, 2011 2:03 PM EDT
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Print1) BM has had a very seccesful history drafting from his time in ottawa with stealing karlsson at 15 overall and cowen at number nine along with second round picks wiercioch and lehner.
Now lets take a look at last year what murry did in the first round... Now i know that every sens fan at home said WTF when they anounced that ottawa was trading for ANOTHER defencman but look at how thats worked out so far rundblad had a terrific year in the swedish elit league and set a bunch of new records.
now if we can keep going on the same track with drafting these key guys early and late in rounds 1 and 2 we could have a prety deep prospect pool as early as next years draft.
But that being said like any contender we need to find thoughs late round gems like detroit has done so well over the years.
as it is right now this is how our line up would look next year
Michalek-Spezza-Alfredsson
Foligno-6th pick-Butler
Condra-Regin-Neil
Greening-Smith-Winchester
13th forward could be Jim O`Brien can play on the PK and play in a third or Fourth line role when called upon.
All so i originaly had shannon on the fourth line winger position (because of his speed, quickness and energy) instead of greening but have re-thought that and i think that having a bigger stronging winger on our fourth line is a better option along with the fact he can play on the third line if needed.
Karlsson-Philips
Rundblad-Kuba
Lee- Gonchar
7th D-man could be Matt Carkner could Bring him in to games if you think you need added toughness.
Guys like Cowen, Wiercioch and Gryba are next in line and only a phone call away from the big club.
Now you can have Cowen playing in bingo for the first half of the season playing big minutes with a solid partner and call him up later on if you can get a team to bite on a trade for kuba or gonchar( this would be difficult due to the fact kuba is a pilon and gonchar is overpaid and has another full year at 5 million )
So if this is our opening day roster then you would have Nashville pick, Dacosta, Cowen, Potulny, and Wiercioch as your Big name prospects in bingo( the reason i dont include Corey Lock in this mix is because i dont see him becoming any type of effective NHLer)
So now we have a good one two punch at center and a strong defence core(minus kuba.. can you tell i hate him?) but anyways now we have a stronger puck moving defence along with some strength up the middle(now the center position is a big question mark and all depends on what murry does at the draft this summer) so if we go into next season bar any costly injuries to top players such as spezza or karlsson and andy plays well in net i can see us finishing around the 10, 11, 12 spot in the eastern conference.
Now we have some good building blocks and are really starting to re-tool our prospect pool.
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Dude seriously
Spell check and capitalization are your friends. It’s painful to read.
Alfie can’t play first line minutes anymore, he needs to be used like Teemu on the PP; need to switch him and Butler. Also can’t see Neil sticking on a line with Regin.
the syntax is improving
and the analysis is largely correct…
im okay with it.
by Buz Killington on May 4, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
True enough
I highly approve of your use of paragraphs good sir. Keep on keeping on!
Well, what happens if your 6th overall pick isn’t a center? Better yet, which one of the Sens first rounder made the immediate jump to the NHL in their draft year? Neither Yashin, Hossa (only 7 games), Bonk or Havlat. Only Daigle made it.
Yea, i was thinking this too. In theory the fist pick could make the team but it is very unlikely. Even if we somehow pulled RNH or couturier it is doubtful that they would make the team for anything long term.
But in general i agree with this. The rebuild is taking strides in the right direction and I am very excited for the next few years!
by spatial.taxes on May 5, 2011 5:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I love the enthusiasm.
But i have to agree with the above posters in regard to the 2nd line centre. It’s more likely to be Da Costa on the 2nd line than whomever we pick up with our 3rd-6th overall pick (assuming BM tries to trade up) . I also can’t see Foligno being used in a 2nd line role, he just hasn’t shown that he’s capable of a consistent scoring position. Furthermore, I would be blown away if Cowen isn’t on the opening day roster for the Sens, regardless of what “veterans” we have on the roster. While i think it would be good for him to get some experience in the AHL, It would also be beneficial for him to start with the Sens so he can get a handle on where he is with his development. I also don’t think that Shannon will be retained by the SENS as they need bigger forwards who are more consistent in their top 6, and if you’re not using Shannon in your top 6, he’s not worth it. Also… Backup goalie WILL be Barry Brust. They need to reward him for how well he’s played this year in the AHL, but they also need to get him out of Lehner’s way in the AHL. SO….
Michalek – Spezza – Butler
Greening – Da Costa – Alfredsson
Foligno – Regin – Condra
Potulny – Winchester – Smith
Karlsson – Phillips
Cowen – Gonchar
Rundblad – Carkner (Lee)
Anderson
Brust
Kuba is by far my least favourite Senator,
that being said, I would be pretty surprised if he wasnt one of the starting D come opening night. Additionally, despite Potulny’s great playoff drive, he was basically invisible when he was with the big club this season, and frankly, I doubt his ability to make this team (its sort of a similar situation to Locke….great in the AHL, useless in the NHL).
Kuba could be bought out. As much as I don’t like buying out players, the team has loads of cap room and probably would be better off letting him walk. He makes $3.7 mil a year, so would be owed $2.44 mil over 2 years, which would be a cap hit of $1.22 mil over the next 2 seasons. After doing the math it almost seems like a foregone conclusion that Kuba will be gone. I think the team would much rather carry 5 young d-men instead of having Kuba. Kuba and Gonchar are injury liabilities, so keeping both makes little to no sense.
As for Potulny, he may have been invisible, but you never know what a new coach might get out of him. He’s a guy who’s already shown he can score 15 goals in a season at the NHL level, I’m all for rolling the dice on him and seeing if he can hack it in the NHL.
by modsuperstar on May 5, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the lack of Chris Neil in those lines
But I am guessing you just forgot. I do think our first round pick will get every chance to make the team, whether he makes it will of course be another thing. At 2nd or 3rd overall, the chances were better, but could still happen.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on May 5, 2011 9:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It’s true, you really have no idea. Nobody was saying Skinner was NHL ready, yet he’s now going to win Rookie of the Year.
by modsuperstar on May 5, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Shannon
I think he’ll be back. I think there’s a little too much pigeon-holing on him – look at how the sabres and nashville did this year with a bunch of little guys. I think Shannon could be fine on the 3rd or 4th line, and do good things on the PK.
I have to admit adnan I did completely forget about neil, but that being said, he was pretty much invisible this whole year, so i would probably keep him off of them. Or, since there’s no trade market for a player like neil at his salary, slot him into the 4th line role where i had potulny.
As far as potulny is concerned, I have to claim ignorance, as I don’t think he was up long enough to get a grade on how he can play in the NHL. But that being said, if you’re putting him in a 4th line 5-8 minutes a night role, all he has to do is play sound defensively.
As for the Draft pick, lets say that Larsson, RNH, and Landeskog are off the board. Who do you guys want and why?
who do i want?
I would love to see couturier here as a big strong center who can play both side of the ice but i would also love to see huberdeau here so either way those are my top 2
by karlssonfan65 on May 5, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Disagree
Neil wasn’t invisible. In fact for a while in the middle of the season when Sens were stinking it up, he was often the only guy bringing any energy to the game.
Fun with capgeek
I used their roster generator for the first time.
Milan Michalek – Jason Spezza – Bobby Butler
Colin Greening – Brooks Laich (2yr) – Daniel Alfredsson
Nick Foligno – Peter Regin – Erik Condra
Ryan Shannon – Zack Smith – Chris Neil
reserve: Stephane Da Costa Jesse Winchester
David Rundblad – Erik Karlsson
Jared Cowen – Sergei Gonchar
Brian Lee – Chris Phillips
reserve: Matt Carkner
Craig Anderson
Josh Harding (1yr)
Thomas Greiss (1yr 2way)
Rationale:
Some might argue signing Laich for 2nd line center takes a spot from our 6th pick (Couturier?) or bumps Condra/Smith/Winchester off the end. It’s true, but I think there’s value in a proven top-6 guy on a shorter (2yr) contract as a hedge against relying on all the bingo promos performing to expectations.
Also as good as Couturier or whoever we pick #6 might be, it’s probably best to have the option to let them develop in the minors rather than need them to step into a 2nd line role immediately.
What about Da Costa? Well he looked to me like he has hands and some creativity, but so far looks soft for the NHL. Let him bump Greening once he proves it, or fill in for Alfresdson if (sadly) his body doesn’t let him play next year.
On the D, you might think WTF he’s putting Rundblad on the top line?? Yes and No. Phillips paid big bucks to play on the 3rd line?? Kind of.
First, explaining the pairings. Karlsson and Rundblad have played together in the past on the Swedish national team, so they’ve got history and chemistry. I recall various analysts making reference to this when BM traded for him at the draft. So there’s instant chemistry there and their Swedish coaches had them on a line together for a reason, so probably a good skill match.
Cowen is the right balance of defense and skill to complement Gonchar’s offense. Note Gonchar goes back to the RHS as suggested by many as the cure for all that ails him (we’ll see). Hopefully giving him some help on the defensive side of him lets him focus on getting the puck to forwards and contributing more in the offensive end.
Now, Phillips and Lee played together some at the end of this past season and it seemed to put Phillips in a better (defensive) role than he was ask to take on earlier in the season (doing more than that). Lee seemed to do alright with a simple defensive assignment. Hopefully they can keep this up and Lee can continue to mature.
So there isn’t a clear top line (although Karlsson/Rundblad should end up that way in a year or two) but that we’d have 3 fairly balanced D lines that we could roll with roughly equal time. Karlsson/Rundblad should be about as effective as Cowen/Gonchar. We’re gonna get exposed while Cowen and Rundlad figure out the big league, no doubt. Hopefully the rookies mature quickly (they are high-end prospects so let’s hope) and then we’ve got a couple balanced lines, say 1a/1b. Make Phillips/Lee the defensive 1st line, match em up when we need a “shut down” pair.
In goal, we’ve already locked Anderson into the starting role, and McElhinney looked weak to me so I’m suggesting we upgrade our backup since there are plenty of guys equal or better out there on the UFA market.
Why Harding? because he’s been stuck in Minnesota forever, and has looked brilliant at times when Backstrom has gone down with injury, but also stunk it up recently and hence might fly under the radar a bit. Was he the beneficiary of a strong defense? maybe. Does he get in the way of Lehner’s promo? not next year, Lehner needs to start a full season in the AHL to get solid. Is this a big risk? Nope.
What’s Greiss on there for? He’s another guy that has shown flashes of brilliance in the past and poor results lately. We should get him in the system if noone else is interested. Again, I don’t want him to take Lehner’s job, but I won’t lose sleep if Brust or Brodeur get bumped down as a result since those guys aren’t going to end up full-time in the NHL ever.
Well there you go. If you made it through my long-winded blabber, bravo! Guess we’ve got 4 more months to dream up next year’s roster and lineup. If you read this, you probably have your own ideas, and they may have changed since last time you posted to SSS, so go ahead and post em!
You should have fanposted this!
Kuba’s missing! Where does he go in your scenario?
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Yeah I thought about it
But figured it was on the same topic as karlssonfan65’s, and his was the last fanpost besides the playoff pool, so figured my post would fit as a continuation (although maybe folks may not look back at this one!)
Re Kuba… thanks I forgot to write about that. My thought on him is that he’s gotta go to make room for Cowen or Rundblad, sooner or later.
Given Kuba’s stock is low, BM can’t hesitate to move him if a willing trade partner shows up with a bag of pucks. Maybe sweetening the pot by offering pending UFAs Svatos/McElhinney/Lessard prior to July 1st could help? Wishful thinking perhaps, but BM is going to have to get creative here.
Failing that, how to move him out really depends on Melnyk’s appetite to burn cash. Is he up for a buyout? It’s hard to fathom burying $3.7M in the minors, but it not being my money, I’d rather he play there and clear the path for the guys mentioned above to get settled in and gel as a corps.
Realistically, this isn’t going to happen and figuring out how to clear Kuba off the books might be BM’s toughest assignment prior to next season.
As far as I'm concerned, as long as Kuba's got trade potential, he should be on the roster
I’m really hesitant to accept that Cowen is going to make the leap to the NHL so easily. There’s a learning curve, and having him in the lineup day one isn’t going to be the difference between succeeding and failing next year. The same might also be true for Rundbland, given Karlsson’s performance his rookie year — though I believe Rundblad’s got the chops to play out the gate.
Kuba’s a veteran defenseman capable of putting up 40 points when healthy, but I don’t think BM is going to find any takers (i.e. believers) prior to the start of the season. If (and it’s a big if) he can do that next year, I think he can be moved at the deadline, but I doubt he’ll go before then.
I agree that he’s got to move to make room for our prospects, but I’m thinking it’s going to be later that he goes. I’d rather just play out the year with him, take our lumps, and then walk away cleanly.
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I think he’ll need to find a stinky contract to take on if they do swap Kuba. I can’t think of anyone who would be good make weight for him though. Maybe they could trade him to Boston for Savard, but we’d probably have to give up a prospect for that to fly. Kuba’s deal would be done after next year and they would be out from paying Savard’s contract.
I’m one who advocates trading for Savard, because I think it’s a no lose situation. He gets healthy and plays productive hockey and helps the team. If he doesn’t he probably calls it a career from concussion issues, then we’re off the hook for his contract. We paid Snoopy $4.8 mil last season to be injured, what would be the loss in trying?
by modsuperstar on May 16, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Savard will stick around 3 more seasons
He’s paid $7 million next season. $6.5 million in 2012-2013 and $5 million in 2013-2014. I don’t think the will retire before 2013-2014 when he has $18.5 million coming in even if he has to sit on injured reserve.
Last three seasons are $1.5 million, $525k and $525k.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Savard would be nice
But that last concussion looked bad, and after another which took him out for a long time. That’s a steep ($20M) bet to make, and I’m guessing Melnyk would rather wait until we’ve got the rest of the pieces to be a contender before paying that kind of cash.
I see your point
True if Kuba plays for the Sens next season and does well enough for another team to trade for him, BM would then be able to get something back.
I think BM has stated his plan for Rundblad and Cowen as regulars next season (my words here, not a quote, but can’t find the multiple references I’ve read/heard). So if that’s true, I’m worried that having a merry-go-round of Kuba/Cowen/Rundblad/Lee would impact on the young guys’ development.
You’re probably right that having Kuba around at the start of the season would provide a buffer if the new guys are over their heads, and Ottawa might lose fewer games with Kuba around for a while. I’m thinking that it’s ok if we stink it up for a bit to let the young guys get some experience.
Thing is though, if a window opens to trade Kuba, BM should take it. I’m not decided on whether a buyout in the offseason is better than keeping him around for the early season merri-go-round though.
Rundblad and Cowen are going to get their 9 games, just like Karlsson did
My guess is that Cowen then goes to the BSens and Rundblad stays up and struggles as he learns the ropes, but improves — the same path Karlsson took, without the stint in the AHL.
My hope is that time seasons Cowen enough that he finishes his year with the big club after Kuba is moved at the deadline, and he seizes a fulltime roster spot next year.
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That explains why you want Kuba around
I guess I haven’t seen Cowen play personally so I had just been taking BM’s word that he was going to play for the Sens next year. If that’s true, then I think Kuba should go.
But if you’re right that Cowen plays for the B-Sens, then it makes sense to wait for a “good” (we can debate what this means!) deal to move Kuba rather than buying him out this summer.
That said, I have no problem with Carkner being the regular 6th D if Kuba is moved and Cowen is in the minors.
Yes, I am not a fan of Kuba by any stretch of the imagination
But he’s not as terrible as we made him out to be this year, and as long as the possibility exists that the team can get anything for him via trade while grooming our younger players patiently, I think that’s the path the organization needs to be following. I haven’t yet seen a logical reason to buy out Kuba. I get that “he sucks” but that’s not a reason to rush anyone else into the lineup.
The second he has no value to the team, I want him gone. Bought out, waived, left in Manitoba… I really don’t care.
If the team looks at Cowen and really feels that he’s a full time NHL player next year, then I don’t have any problem moving or buying out Kuba — but I really don’t think that will be the case. Cowen’s making a leap from playing with boys to playing with men. He’s not going to pin someone like Ovechkin against the wall just because he’s so much bigger, you know?
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growing pains
I don’t see any issue in playing Cowen if he’s similar to where say Lee or Karlsson were at the start of last year. He might not pin Ovechkin on day one but he might by the end of the season.
Have you guys been watching B-Sens at all – how is he comparing to the other D that were called up late this past season? (Benoit, D. Smith)
He got his first AHL playoff point in his first AHL game
I don’t think Benoit or D. Smith did that
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I suspect
that runblad will have a much easier transition to the nhl than karlsson did. he is the same age as karlsson (’90), meaning he will be two years older in his first nhl season. in the season before karlsson played in the nhl, he had 10 points in 45 games in the swedish elite league. that same year, runblad had a similar line with 10 points for skelleftea. however, we all know what runblad did this year in that league, which suggests that he is much farther along than karlsson was when he made the move to north america, as he should be given that he is older than when karlsson made that move.
also, runblad has a lot more size (6’2", 200). while he, like karlsson, can get caught getting too cute with the puck in their own zone, and will likely have some turnover problems next year, he is not as likely to struggle defensively with the strength of nhl forwards like karlsson did and still does. while not an aggresive defender (he relies on positioning like karlsson) he will have the size required to be effective in the corners.
if you cant tell, i am more excited about david runblad than any prospect the senators have had since jason spezza. i am expecting (barring injuries) an 82-game season from him next year and looking forward to 30 points in his rookie campaign. i really think he is the real deal and ultimately the sens are going to have two young star offensive defencemen to man the backend for quite a while.
by Buz Killington on May 17, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I also think that Rundblad is the real deal
Mostly for the reasons you mentioned, and his highlight reel is ridiculous.
Still, I think he’s going to have to learn to rein in his freewheeling style, just like Karlsson did. I don’t think that’s a change that comes naturally (see Spezza, Jason) so I think we’re going to see some struggles before he ultimately figures the North American game out. Once that happens, I bet we’ll see him blossom, just like we’re seeing Karlsson blossom.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
As much as I hate on Kuba, and as we all do...
He’s not entirely useless. He played well for certain stretches here and there and he still is recovering from a major surgery. He was never given much slack in Ottawa and the expectations have always been very high (although they arguably should be given his salary hit). Nonetheless he would have to play lights out for quite a while for Sens fans to ever be made believers again.
I’m also not a big believer in Cowen as a saviour, while I’m sure he could probably crack a roster on many teams Ottawa likely isn’t one of them right out of the gate. Give him time in Binghamton, no need to rush his development. Tyler Myers struggled this year and is probably a more gifted player, and didn’t turn it around until the end of the year. Although that somewhat supports the argument that we might as well season Cowen now as opposed to later when something is on the line.
I think Rundblad is going to have a lot of trouble adjusting to the NHL; I watched a couple of games and he got away with stuff that would never fly at the NHL level. Growing pains will take place for sure. I wasn’t familiar with Karlsson in the same way when he first entered the league so have no basis for comparing their play before entering the league.
The problem with Kuba is we bought high on the guy, so there is no way he was ever going to live up to his contract.
by modsuperstar on May 16, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand this
His contract isn’t terrible and he’s a 40-point guy when he’s healthy. What isn’t he living up to?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Injuries - plural, which is the real problem (excluding the fact that he's 6'4" doesn't hit anyone)
Last year – Back injury (he was on pace for 43 points prior to going out for the season), offseason surgery
This year – Broken leg, first day of training camp.
I really believe his struggles this year are the result of essentially spending six months recovering from surgery. There’s no way he was in game shape at any point of the season. He went into this offseason healthy, so I expect him to have a bounce-back kind of year, and my hope is that he’ll do well enough that we can move him at the deadline to some team looking for a puck mover.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
This is the scenario I'm hoping for too
I could only find stats for the number of hits he threw while playing for the Sens. 27 in 53 g in 09-10 and 23 in 64 in 10-11. If anyone somewhere that has records earlier than this I’d be interested to see it. He seemed more physical to me when he played for Tampa, at least in the pushing and shoving way if not the Kronwall Kannon way.
Hopefully he trains hard in the off season and manages to stay healthy, the fact that he’s been given his own verb in Ottawa pretty much makes him persona non grata.
Kuba hit totals since lockout
2005-2006: 22 hits in 65 games, 0.34 hits/game
2006-2007: 48 hits in 81 games, 0.59 hits/game
2007-2008: 69 hits in 75 games, 0.92 hits/game
2008-2009: 44 hits in 75 games, 0.59 hits/game
2009-2010: 27 hits in 53 games, 0.51 hits/game
2010-2011: 23 hits in 64 games, 0.36 hits/game
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I'm convinced
With the info you guys have dug up, it’s making sense to me that Kuba is a good hedge against Cowen. They would play a similar role on the team. Kuba is hopefully as low as he can get from a trade perspective, and possibly from a health perspective as well, so expecting improved performance this year sounds reasonable.
From Melnyk’s perspective, a Kuba buyout + Cowen’s big-league salary (and bonuses) is in the same ballpark as Kuba’s fulltime salary. Financially, the worst case is not buying out Kuba and Cowan ending up taking Kuba’s regular minutes.
I think it boils down to this – if Kuba isn’t going to play (a) in the top 6 and (b) better than Cowen, then he should be bought out.
I’ll hope neither is true, in which case we’ve probably got a solid 6 d and with anderson the outlook for next year looks better than expected.
I agree
There’s going to be a learning curve for Rundblad. Some of the moves he pulls now will lead to forwards with free shots at Anderson.
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by Mark Parisi on May 16, 2011 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I was hoping he was smart enough to realize this already but his performance at the WHC makes me think otherwise.
It’s going to take someone really sitting him down and going over a ton of game footage (which I’m sure they already are doing) and more importantly him getting burned a couple of times and becoming tired of being the goat. Still, at the same time you want to give him the kind of creative freedom to make plays, especially since there is pretty much no pressure to win (arguable but you get the idea).
It's reasonable
The guy is 20 and hasn’t played a single NHL game yet. He’s got time to learn, it’s not like he’s Kuba.
There's no rush
Let’s face it… there are some suckers out there but none big enough to take on Kuba’s contract. We’re stuck with that… so…
$1.2 mill a year buyout for two years is pocket change for Mr. Melnick. I say just admit our mistake and move along to more physical dmen like Rundblad and Cowen and let em play.
However wait like Mark says until after the season starts. That will give Kubes a chance to prove he’s a new man now that he’s had some serious time since all the injuries and surgery. A miracle may happen and we may find at least one desperate team with alot of injuries willing to deal.
Isn’t there a specific period you’re allowed to buyout someone? I didn’t think you could just pick and choose when to execute a buyout.
by modsuperstar on May 16, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Buyout period deadline
I looked it up and last year there was a buyout period just before the draft. So yeah, you have to follow those buyout period deadlines. I imagine there must be several of these buyout periods, just like there are several trading periods. Can someone confirm this?
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