Silver Nuggets: Senators draft probabilities; Karlsson / Havlat comparison

OTTAWA, CANADA - APRIL 2: Jason Spezza #19 of the Ottawa Senators celebrates his second goal of the game with team mate Brian Lee #5 against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Place on April 2, 2011 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Jana Chytilova/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images)

Well Sens fans, this is it. It is the last week of the season. This week the Senators host the Flyers and the Canadiens before finishing out their season in Boston on Saturday afternoon. After that, we'll have six months of anxious waiting before the Senators play a competitive game again

According to Sports Club Stats the Senators have a 42% chance at finishing last in the East (3rd last overall), 39% chance at finishing 14th in the East (4th last overall) and 19% chance at finishing 13th in the East (5th last overall). The Senators will need to lose all three games to have a better than 50% probability of finishing last in the East. In any case, the Senators have clinched the 5th worst record in the NHL and thus the 6th pick in the worst case scenario of one of the teams 6th to 9th winning the lottery.

I have calculated the Senators draft probability below. For this purpose, I am discounting Colorado finishing above Ottawa as they are 4 points back with Ottawa holding the tiebreaker.

Draft position probability
Standings
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
If 3rd last
6% 0% 24% 12% 0% 0%
If 4th last
4% 0% 0% 26% 9% 0%
If 5th last
2% 0% 0% 0% 14% 3%
Total
12% 0% 24% 38% 23% 3%

 

So we still have a 36% chance of picking in the top 3 and 97% chance of picking in the top 5! Here are today's links:

General Sens News

  • Martin Havlat is the reason I am an Ottawa Senators fan, he was my favourite player. Jason York rates him as the most exciting player to ever play for the Senators and I agree. His stick-handling and speed were breathtaking. Erik Karlsson reminds York of Martin Havlat in that respect. He also rates Karlsson higher than Duncan Keith in terms of pure skill. Very interesting read. (Sun)

More after the jump.

  • The Ottawa Senators have 181 goals this season (the article incorrectly states 183 and counts shootout goals). The franchise low is 191. The Senators need 11 goals in 3 games to beat that. (Sun)
  • UPDATE: Daniel Alfredsson officially will not play again this season. (Sun)
  • Marek Svatos is also likely done for the season. (Scott MacArthur)
  • Zack Smith regrets his hit on Matt Lashoff as he awaits news on whether he will be suspended. (Citizen)
  • Jason Spezza is happy for his good friend Ray Emery. (Citizen)

General Hockey News

  • The unrestricted free agent market may be thin this year, but there are some big name restricted free agents including Steven Stamkos, Zach Parise and Shea Weber. Will any of them make it to July 1 and if so, would they receive an offer sheet? Stamkos' likely salary will require FOUR first round picks in an offer sheet. (Sun)
  • According to Russian legend Vladislav Tretiak, Evgeni Nabokov will play for the New York Islanders next season. (Dmitry Chesnokov)
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Silver Seven

You must be a member of Silver Seven to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Silver Seven. You should read them.

Join Silver Seven

You must be a member of Silver Seven to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Silver Seven. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker