Senators Ups and Downs: The End
by Mark Parisi on Apr 11, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
in Ottawa Senators ups and downs
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PrintThe Senators ended the season 2-1, but it wasn't enough to save Cory Clouston's job. The team beat two playoff teams this week, and there were many positives to take away from the play of much of the roster. Next season will be long in coming, but there's no reason to approach it with a sense of dread. The Senators are not the worst team in the NHL.
Biggest Gains: Jason Spezza
Seven points in three games. What can be said about Spezza that hasn't been said already? It's hard to believe that this is the same player Senators fans have watched in the past few seasons. His maturation has simply been a pleasure to watch, and is probably the single brightest spot for Ottawa's future. His obvious chemistry with Bobby Butler, who is frequently in the area to receive his no-look passes, only further encourages us.
Biggest Losses: Francis Lessard
We've piled on Lessard since he began playing with the big club, but his play hurt the team more than anyone else's this week. His role is little more than skating some shifts to see if he can find an opponent to fight, which is fine. It's when he puts his team on the PK that we become frustrated with him. His flailing trip of Andreas Nodl (Lessard had fallen down on the play, and whacked Nodl's skates with his stick as an attempt at defense) was painful to watch, and his hit from behind on Tom Pyatt was dangerous and uncalled for -- and it gave the Canadiens a five-minute power play. Lessard was suspended for two games for the hit, an ignominious end to his time with the Senators.
Goalies
Trend
Notes
Pascal Leclaire
We wish him well in wherever his future takes him.
Curtis McElhinney
If his last start for the team, a 3-1 loss in Boston, was an audition, he probably won't be back with the team.
Craig Anderson
Closed out the year with wins over Philadelphia and Montreal. Probably the brightest hope for next year.
Defensemen
Erik Karlsson
Missed the end of the season with a cut thigh, but still finished the year with 45 points. That makes him the team's second-highest scorer, and bodes well for his future.
Brian Lee
Lee turned in two strong performances against Philadelphia and Montreal before faltering slightly against Boston -- not that many of his teammates looked good in that game.
Chris Phillips
Pretty steady over the last week. Jumped into more than a few rushes, presumably because it didn't matter much at this point in the season, but couldn't generate any points -- though he did hit the post against Boston.
Filip Kuba
Two assists against Philadelphia and the GWG against Montreal in overtime. Plus-1 on the week and also blocked 10 shots in three games. Maybe Kuba's best week all year.
David Hale
Struggled this week, as he did last week. Though he's the owner of the best plus/minus rating on the team, we think he looks like an AHL player.
Andre Benoit
After going to town with seven shots in one game last week, Benoit was much less noticeable in his final games.
Sergei Gonchar
Finished the year on injured reserve.
Matt Carkner
Finished the year on injured reserve.
Forwards
Colin Greening
Returned to the AHL despite a two-goal game. Soylent was then recalled due to Marek Svatos's concussion. He promptly notched an assist against Montreal.
Jason Spezza
See "Biggest Gains."
Bobby Butler
The Bust found his second wind, as he finished the year on a three-game goal scoring streak. He also recorded three assists in that span. Would have been the biggest gainer if Jason Spezza hadn't been hotter. Finishes the year with 21 points in 36 games. That's pretty good. Throw out his first eight games, where he was up and down between the AHL and NHL and still adjusting to life on Spezza's wing, and he has 21 points in 28 games as a full-time NHL player.
Milan Michalek
Two points in three games this week. We're excited about the thought of Michalek entering next season fully healthy.
Ryan Shannon
Three points (1G, 2A) in three games for Shannon.
Erik Condra
Condra finished the season being pretty invisible despite strong early chemistry with Shannon.
Nick Foligno
Foligno played strongly in his final three games. He seems to be aware of his inconsistent season, as he is skipping the World Championships to train (and also get married) this offseason.
Zack Smith
No stupid penalties for Z. Smith this week and one outstanding fight.
Chris Neil
Took 17 minutes in penalties for defending Z. Smith after he was elbowed in the head. Things like that are why Neil got to wear the 'A' at the end of the season.
Marek Svatos
Finished the year on injured reserve.
Jesse Winchester
Part of the reason Winchester is valuable is his faceoff skill: He won 18 of 32 (56.3%) this week, including going 7 for 10 against both Montreal and Boston. Think that's not huge when he's leading the second PK unit on the ice?
Francis Lessard
See "Biggest Losses."
Stephane Da Costa
Though he didn't record a point in his first four NHL games, he looks very promising. Bobby Butler didn't score in his first two NHL games with Ottawa last year, either.
Daniel Alfredsson
Finished the year on injured reserve.
Peter Regin
Finished the year on injured reserve.
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It is good to see Kuba have a decent finish to the year
Hopefully he can stay healthy in the offseason, have a good camp and come back with a good year.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Apr 11, 2011 8:13 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Or even better
Get traded over the summer if someone ends up disappointed on draft day/July 1.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Also, Lessard was suspended?
I think the best summary of his time here was that no one noticed his suspension (okay Mark did).
Although maybe I was the only one who didn’t notice. :P
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Apr 11, 2011 8:47 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I noticed Cody Bass in his place, but I thought they just sent him back down.
You need a few tough guys on the team, but Lessard is just ridiculous. There’s really not room for a one dimensional player who’s only talent is dropping the gloves.
If Carkner is back next year, we should have plenty of toughness, with him, Neil, and Z. Smith. At least those three can play some minutes and contribute to the game.
Nope - me either
Then again the only time I really noticed Lessard was when we sent everyone back to Bingo except him.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
who's Lessard?
I mean, who’s Lessard
are you an expert? are YOU an expert? so you're telling me you're an expert then? you're an expert!?
Thoughts on D. Smith?
Thought he looked smart. Has some neat moves and at times looked like the best d-man callup from Bingo.
I think the tough thing with him is that he’s probably a guy who will be in tough to find a spot on this team. There are higher profile d prospects coming through next year, as well as a glut of current NHL level players. If he is ready for the NHL level he’s almost going to have to be traded to find that opportunity given our defensive depth chart. Obviously nothing wrong with having depth in our system though.
by modsuperstar on Apr 11, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
That's exactly it.
I’m struggling to see how our D corps will shape up tomorrow. Assuming that Phillips, Karlsson, Gonchar and Kuba are locks, then that leaves Carkner as the 5th guy, and then one of Lee, Rundblad or Cowen. If we can trade Kuba, and let Lee play more minutes and have one of Cowen or Rundblad make the team out of camp, then we should be alright…
My expectation is that Cowen will begin the year in the AHL
His size let him dominate in Spokane, but the NHL is a much different game. I’m guessing our starting pairings will look like:
Gonchar-Karlsson
Phillips-Lee
Kuba-Rundblad
With Carkner as the 7th. Ideally, Kuba will be keeping Cowen’s spot warm, and Cowen will finish the year in the NHL after Kuba is moved.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I also agree Rundblad is more likely to play than Carkner
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
It would be nice to find somebody to take Kuba, but I won't count on it.
Lee might draw some interest after the way he’s played since sitting out all those games. He’s consistently knocking people off the puck, where he used to play real tentatively. He’d probably be easier to move than Kuba with the salary difference between the two.
I'm really skeptical that Lee's 20-game run of not sucking is going to convince any team to trade for him
Especially when he’s already cleared waivers once. Players like Lee are a dime a dozen. I just can’t imagine any GM saying, “An average at best defenseman! Shit, I need more of those!”
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by Mark Parisi on Apr 11, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
God it would be nice, though, wouldn't it?
I’m hoping someone will end up disappointed on draft day or July 1 and will take him as a consolation prize. I know it’s a long shot, but a girl can dream.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
If we can move both Lee and Kuba before the start of next season, I'd be thrilled
I think it’s going to take a larger body of work to convince anyone to take a chance on them, though.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Apr 11, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh I'll be happy with moving either of them
And of the two, I think Lee is more likely since he’ll be way cheaper and since mediocrity is better than horrible with some good games mixed in.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
It's been longer than 20 games, more like about 40
He’s been playing against the top lines with Chris Phillips, and has more or less held his own (or at least as much as Phillips has).
He’s not been spectacular, but as you say he hasn’t sucked. It’s not worth trading him considering the little value we’ll get back.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I realize he played more games
But he didn’t just jump in and start not sucking. He’s only been performing at his current level for around 20 in my opinion.
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by Mark Parisi on Apr 11, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
We may get little value back
But the reason to trade is to clear room on our overcrowded blue line. I’d rather a new face than the mediocrity (at best) that is Brian Lee.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I'd keep Lee.
He hasn’t shown himself to be a huge liability this season, and given a full season in the NHL (which he hasn’t had) and the potential is there for good things. He plays better when he has more time.
If we didn't have so many prospects, I'd care less about trading him
I’d still want to trade him, but that’s more because of my irrational could-have-had-Kopitar hangup. But with the defensive prospects waiting in the wings, I want his roster spot.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
He looks like a generic defenseman to me
He could wear the Lee’s number or Hale’s number or Benoit’s number and you wouldn’t know the difference. None of them stand out, and they’re all interchangeable to me.
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by Mark Parisi on Apr 11, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Uhh
He won 18 of 32 (.563%)
You mean 56.3% there. Or .563, but certainly not .563%
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Ha, thanks
Late night writing. Gotta love it.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Apr 11, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
This is a big reason I love this site; People that post here are actually intelligent!
That jumped out at me when I read it too. Minor faux pas in a well written piece, but if you mentioned it on most sites, you’d almost be able to see the blank looks in the replies…
Mark!
Loved the Ups and Downs this season, I think it was a sweet way to keep tabs on guys.
Just a thought, what about doing one final one, taking a long-view type look, and look at whether players are ups or downs compared to where they were in preseason, start of the season? Just an idea I guess, and I guess its a similar idea to the generic report card style, but it keeps it in a format that has worked well here.
Just a thought!
http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/
Not quite the same but
I am slowly doing a review of every player’s season. It will help kill the time until next season.
Okay not every player, every player I feel like doing. Sorry Andre Benoit, you don’t get a review.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
CONTRADICTION
Jason Spezza: “is probably the single brightest spot for Ottawa’s future.”
Craig Anderson: “Probably the brightest hope for next year.”
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
by DarrenM on Apr 11, 2011 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Ha
Oh man, this obviously wasn’t my best effort of the year. I will fudge it by adding a poll!
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by Mark Parisi on Apr 11, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
So do I!
Great thinking, Mark!
An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com
by Peter Raaymakers on Apr 11, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
DISAGREE
Short term and long term.
In the short term (next year), goaltending was one of the biggest issues – making Anderson the brightest hope for next year.
In the long term (“the future”), there was a question of who will bear the C after Alfie. It’s looking very much like Spezza has eliminated that concern. He’s the post-Alfie era bright point, and that isn’t next year.
Moving Kuba for an unwanted forward
What about moving Kuba for a $3 million something forward that a team doesn’t want anymore? At least that way we could have a useful player. Lee is probably alot more marketable… but they’ll probably wait to see how training camp shakes down. It’s much better to have your #8 dman coming from the farm on a 2-way when injuries happen.
Next year
Greening-Spezza-Butler (for chemistry sake)
Michalek-Shannon-Alfreddson
Foligno-Regin-Condra
Z.Smith-Winchester-Neil
with Da Costa, Wick, and O’brien next in line for callups. Condra, Greening, and Z. Smith need to have a good camp, and Shannon should be resigned. He wants to be here, has speed, and helps the PK. And we can’t have ALL rookies!
Phillips-Karlsson
Gonchar-Cowen
Lee-Rundblad
Carkner
(buyout Kuba, or trade for scraps)
Anderson
sub 1 M backup
one more of rebuilding. Be competitive, but likely not a playoff team. Go from there.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 11, 2011 12:19 PM EDT reply actions
I think our 1st round pick will probably play
That’s just my guess though.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Dont think it will be handed to him though
I can see 1st rounder/Condra/Da Costa fighting for that empty forward spot. I think Butler and Greening will be here, but I’m less sure about condra. Just my feeling though.
http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/
I wonder if that will change based on our draft spot
He said that when we were sitting with the number two pick. I’m sure our top pick will get 9 games. Past that, I think it depends on how they look.
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I don't know if it will change much unless we move down to 6th
He said that when we were 2nd, but I seem to recall him also saying that the top 5 all seemed NHL ready, so if we end up with one of the top 5 then I’m betting they at least get a few games to try and earn a more permanent spot.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Well, I'm certainly not ruling it out
I trust our scouting department and coaching staff to make the correct call there.
But Ryan Strome is rather generously listed at 180lbs, and Jonathan Huberdeau is an exaggerated 171. If Huberdeau is 170, so was Karlsson last year.
It’s hard to imagine either of those guys stepping in and playing in the NHL right away at that size, you know?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Fair enough
I just remember Murray making those comments at the same time that he said he expected our first pick to play. Then again, expecting him to play might mean giving him 4-5 games as a chance to earn a spot for more of the season, barring something ridiculous at training camp.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
It makes no sense to buy out Kuba
As much as I’d like that spot, we’ll have a better shot at trading Lee IMO, and Kuba will likely draw more than “scraps” at the trade deadline, so it makes sense to keep him until then and hope he has a good fall.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
It's not worth buying him out.
Salary for an extra year, and we’re still paying Emery too. Might as well just suck it up, play him, and if he turns his game around, great, if not, then turf him at the deadline for a 7th :)
Do you guys think
We will be pressed against the cap in the next two years?
I think we will be a middling team with a middling payroll.
Hence, no problem to pay Chris Phillips 3 M for 3 more years.
A buyout wouldn’t hurt with regards to the cap.
On the other hand, Kuba may have trade value at the deadline. But he is equally likely to be horrible next year. Unless it all stems from him playing hurt.
I just think Lee has toiled long enough, and played well enough, to be top six next year.
No guarantees our #1 plays. Its not one of the Landeskog/Nugent-Hopkins/Couturier/Larsson class.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 11, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think we'll be hurting for cap space, no
But I don’t think we’re desperate enough to buy out the contract either. Not to mention that he’s shown recently that he can play well. If he figures his shit out over the summer and actually comes back next season as a competent defenseman (keep in mind, this season was unusually bad for him – he’s generally been much better in his time here), then we can trade him during the year, and for more than the peanuts he’d garner now.
It just strikes me as very impatient to buy him out or sell him at any price now, and I don’t see the point. It’s not like having Cowen in the lineup instead of Kuba will get us the Cup next spring.
And no, there’s no guarantee that our first pick plays. But Murray has said for months that he expects our first pick to play, so I think it’s a reasonable expectation that he’ll have a shot at earning a roster spot.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
And one more thing
I’m not against the buyout because of cap space, I’m against it because the fans in this city are fairweather and we were already struggling to sell tickets. I’m keeping my fingers crossed, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the fans realized we won’t be a contender next year and stopped buying tickets in December. A team in that position shouldn’t be buying out Kuba’s contract unless it’s absolutely necessary.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I see
I just don’t see how one can justify playing him over
Rundblad and Cowen (who must play)
and Lee (who showed he has some chops).
Rebuilding is about getting the young guys development time, here.
Not trying to showcase some overpaid, underperforming vet for 60 games in the hopes his trade value goes up.
I do see the negative side of the buyout that you guys bring up. I just don’t think its that detrimental.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 11, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think there IS a negative side to buying him out
I’m not exactly a Kuba supporter. I just don’t see a positive side to buying him out. But I do see a positive side to a healthy Kuba playing well and becoming a tradeable asset for the organization.
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The problem with buying out Kuba is that there's no tangible benefit to doing so
1) The team has no real need for the cap space, as you’ve pointed out.
2) The loss of Campoli means that there’s a spot available for Lee already.
3) There’s already a spot available for Rundblad.
So, essentially, you’re talking about clearing a roster spot for Rookie Defensman X (pick a name… Cowen, Weircioch, Larsson, it doesn’t matter) who may or may not be ready to play in the NHL.
Because the Senators are going to be a middling team, they have the luxury of developing those guys at a reasonable pace. There’s no good reason to rush someone not ready into that spot - Erik Karlsson’s pre and post-AHL rookie performances show that pretty well.
Kuba’s a big puck-mover capable of providing some offense and running a powerplay. He’s also in the last year of his contract. The most reasonable thing to do is showcase him, trade him for anything, and THEN call up Random Defenseman X, who will have had those months to adjust to the North American game against men.
Buying him out is throwing away a potentially tradeable asset for no gain. It doesn’t make sense.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Also remember that if the rookie plays, and they become good, they become expensive a year earlier
So if we do a cup run in 3 years then we have to blow up the team and trade away good young talent earlier. If they don’t play next year, their rookie status stands and we can get their first full year in 2012-2013.
But the team is only going to become good
By adding these players. We don’t have the luxury of slowly bringing these guys in like Boston can do with Seguin or like the Sens did with Spezza. I would like to play Rundblad, Cowen and #1 pick if they are ready and suck up all the times they screw up.
It’s 1 year closer to free agency but it is also 1 year of NHL experience.
Also, I am assuming similar to Cowen, our #1 pick won’t be eligible for the AHL so would have to be sent back to juniors. Unless we draft a guy out of Europe.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
We may not have the luxury of taking a long time
But we’re also not so desperate for guys that we have to play them immediately. There’s no harm (that I can see, anyway) in giving Cowen a year in the NHL and calling him up if there’s an injury.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I think
‘the fairweather fans’ would be more excited to see Cowen and Rundblad up here. The best thing about a rebuilding team is seeing the young stars.
Kuba, even when he was performing at a reasonabl level, was never a huge fan favorite.
Guaranteed Rundblad will be (like Karlsson) and Cowen will be (especially if he brings the mean streak).
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 11, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure they will be at first
But I’m worried that a lot of them share Adnan’s mistaken belief that we can make the playoffs next year, but lack Adnan’s loyalty to the team if we don’t.
I’m sure they’ll be excited in September/October, but I’m worried that when December rolls around and it becomes apparent that playing a team of rookies isn’t a surefire ticket to the playoffs, then they’ll jump ship. Keep in mind that we’re already a team that needs to make the second round of the playoffs just to break even – granted we’ve lost some salary, but there will be some dropoff in ticket sales. I just don’t see a reason to make this season suck more financially by buying out a contract that we’ll likely be able to move in February.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Next year
will be somewhere between 1996 and 1997 versions.
A young team ripe with unproven talent that will be borderline competitive and unlikely to make the playoffs.
The fans were reasonably happy with the progression. They didn’t sell out the building, but there was excitement with post-holdout Yashin, Alfredsson, Bonk, Daigle, Redden, and Phillips (not yet arrived).
Essentially, my problem with Filip:
Kuba will be eating up valuable minutes that could be better served to developing Cowen, Rundblad, Karlsson, Weircioch, whomever makes it. And Lee. At least three of these guys may be too good for the AHL, and may need NHL time to develop against NHL opponents.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 11, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Well there's already room for Round Leaf
Which leaves Cowen, who consensus suggests will be the call-up at the first sign of injury. I just don’t see urgency that warrants buying out Kuba’s contract. Yes those minutes could go to someone else, but it’s Kuba after all so he’ll probably be hurt at some point in the year, opening the door for Cowen. And even when he’s in the lineup, I’m certainly not saying that he needs to play the most minutes out of all our blueliners. Put him in the third D-pairing until he earns a spot higher up or until he’s traded. But it’s a waste to buy him out.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
True
But quality ice time, should be going to him. Not Kuba. Was my point.
And he is still developing. Clearly. With room for lots of improvement. Equally clear. Both of which can be stunted by showcasing a declining vet for 20 minutes a game.
We have Phillips and Gonchar as mentors. We also have Lee and Carkner as bottom pair guys on one way contracts. Two more regular spots.
by DontfeedtheBelak on Apr 11, 2011 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
No one's taking his ice time
considering Karlsson was often leading the team in TOI, his ice time won’t be affected by anyone other than himself. He’s already proven that he can be our best defenseman, and is definitely a top pairing guy.
Karlsson was getting 30 minutes a game before he went down with his laceration
And that was with Kuba in the lineup.
You’ll free up two more regular spots, but you don’t have any guarantee that you have the bodies to fill them, and that’s the big problem. Why rush the players into their spots before they’re ready? How does that benefit the Ottawa Senators?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Ease Cowen in
To me it makes the most sense to start Cowen in the AHL and bring him up once Kuba has been traded or someone gets injured. If Cowen ends up playing half a season in Binghamton then that’s fine with me. Big guys take longer to develop anyway, so easing him up through the levels should actually benefit his development.
Anyway, after Bingo has lent us all their good players this year, why not give them a stud d-man for half the season as a small thank you ;)
Not buying out his contract does not mean giving Kuba top ice time
Who said anything about giving Kuba 20 mins per game?
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Ha!
Jerk. :P
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Apr 11, 2011 10:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What?
At least give me credit for adding in your loyalty! But really, I’m only repeating something you said many times on this site. I don’t take kindly to being called a jerk for paraphrasing your own remarks.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Oh I am not denying I said that
Also I did add “:P” after jerk.
But I will bet you $20 we finish no worse than 10th. We will be in contention for a playoff spot.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Apr 11, 2011 10:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
But what I was saying was, if for example, our #1 pick can contribute more than Erik Condra or da Costa can next year, then he should play and not worry about delaying free agency.
I do disagree with Mark that you shouldn’t worry about cap space planning, because you should. But not as much with entry level contracts, you got to play them if they are ready.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Whoa, hold on there, cochese
No one said anything about not worrying about cap space planning. Financial irresponsibility is a bad way to build a team, just as trying to save a few million is.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Sure, as long as they're ready.
But you’re talking about sucking up their screwups, which sounds suspiciously like playing them regardless of whether they’re ready. I just don’t want to play a rookie for the sake of playing a rookie – I’d rather play whoever is best suited for the role.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Well of course they will mistakes - they are rookies
But they can still contribute. For example, Rundblad will make a lot of mistakes next year, like Mark mentioned he will have to adapt to smaller ice. But I would still play him instead of a safer option, as long as Rundblad is still providing value.
Same can be true of our draft pick.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Apr 11, 2011 10:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Send the pick back
If the pick is Landeskog then maybe you play him next year because he should be physically strong enough to take the NHL grind. If it is one of the other guys then I would seriously think about sending him back to develop for another year, especially if it is a guy like Strome or Huberdeau who still need to fill out more.
Karlsson played as a 19 year old
And he is also very small, in a more physically demanding position.
I guess the kids will be 18, and Karlsson did play 10 games in the AHL, but if our pick is producing more or at least creating chances in the 9 game try out than one of the 3rd/4th liners, then he should stay.
I am not saying we should play them no matter what, but if they are making things happen, then age/size shouldn’t be a reason to send them down.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
With a high ceiling prospect you have to take the long view. Playing sooner may or may not be in the best interests of their development. Karlsson is a guy with tons of confidence and whose game is based on agility, trickery, etc… A guy like Spezza when he came into the league was used to dominating possession of the puck, but since he didn’t have the speed or size to do that at the NHL level the best place for him to develop was the AHL. It is a case-by-case judgment call.
And Karlsson struggled a lot at first
Until he figured out that he needs to play like a girl.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I don't know what that means
But my point is, he mostly figured it out in the NHL after struggling through. He didn’t magically improve after 10 games in the AHL, it was over the course of the NHL season.
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
It means that he needed to stop playing like he was a huge guy
And play his speed and skill instead. Like how women play hockey because they generally don’t have the size to be throwing big hits.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I don't think saving one year on a player''s contract in the hopes of keeping them for cheap is a good way to run a team
Predicting a team’s cap situation three years down the road is too unrealistic. It’s impossible to know what trades/signings/losses you’ll have in that time, so there’s no reason to try to “save” a year of a player except for being a cheapskate. And being cheap isn’t how championship teams are built.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Fair enough. But you don't want to rush them either
And end up burning a year off the books and hindering their development.
I totally agree
I don’t think we should be playing any player we don’t feel is ready for the sake of “developing” them. If they’re NHL-ready, they should be in the NHL. If they’re not, then they shouldn’t.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Regarding contract
Playing them sooner may actually end up saving money because they may end up with lousy numbers in their early NHL years thus diminishing their bargaining power vs other players with similar NHL experience who started later and therefore ramped up faster. I am sure this argument sounds counter-intuitive. To give a concrete example:
Player A:
year 1 : back to junior
year 2: 60 points
year 3: 75 points
year 4: 90 points
Player B:
year 1: 30 points
year 2: 60 points
year 3: 75 points
Assuming both signed 3-year deals, when Player A goes to negotiate(one year later), he has to be paid as a 90-point scorer(averaging 75 per season). Player B will be negotiating as a 75 point scorer(averaging 55 per season). Yeah, Player B gets to his second deal a year earlier, but it may be a much less lucrative deal than Player A.
Leaving a guy in junior for an extra year won’t necessarily save money over the long term.
That's awesome
I never thought of that!
An Ottawa Senators fan in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Umm... there's a lot of guesswork here
And it assumes a player who’s inserted into the NHL lineup will not develop any more quickly than a player who’s sent back to junior. The fact that your ‘year 2’ point totals are identical is where my scepticism lies.
I’d make a counter-argument that all else remaining equal, a highly skilled players’ point total should increase like this:
year 1 : back to junior
year 2: 45 points
year 3: 55 points
year 4: 75 points
Player B:
year 1: 40 points
year 2: 60 points
year 3: 80 points
An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com
by Peter Raaymakers on Apr 12, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Why does player A only go from 45 to 55 after his first NHL season? Is it reasonable to assume that if he enters the league as a 19 year old he would only be able to score an additional 5 points compared to coming in at 18? I don’t think your assumptions are particularly more reasonable than mine.
I think it can really go either way
Maybe he gets in the NHL and blossoms, or maybe he tanks and his development is set back. Hypothesizing about points is just that – hypothetical.
I think the important thing is just not to rush anyone in to the NHL when they’re not ready. We shouldn’t be concerned about burning a year of their contract or how it will affect re-negotiation in the future, we should just be concerned about whether he’s ready.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
You're probably right
But that’s the problem: Assumptions are rarely going to be accurate. At all.
An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com
by Peter Raaymakers on Apr 17, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm so stoked to see Runblad
it’s making me giddy.
If we don’t get lucky with the numbered balls tomorrow night, I think BMurray will trade our pick and a later pick to move into the top 2. I believe firmly that he’s got eyes on Landeskog and I also believe firmly he doesn’t want to lose out. If we are 4th or 5th, he’ll be gone.
are you an expert? are YOU an expert? so you're telling me you're an expert then? you're an expert!?
I seriously seriously hope not
That sounds like an awful idea IMO, and I can’t imagine any of the teams that are in a position (now, at least) to pick before us giving up that spot.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I don't think anyone in this draft is worth two first round picks right now
Years later when they’re superstars we can have hindsight debates, but unless we’re one player away from the Cup (and as you know, we’re not) I don’t like the idea of giving up too much to get one player. I think that would be a step in the wrong direction.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I hope not
I’m a huge Lando fan, but he’s not worth trading up for. The whole point of rebuilding is to get lots of young talent in our organization.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Agreed.
The more picks the team has, the better its chances of drafting more than one (or for that matter, at least one) player who will be a top-tier NHL player a few years down the road.
Only for the right deal
I would be willing to trade up for Landeskog if the price was not that high. I love guys like Mike Richards, Joe Sakic, Alfie, etc. who bring intangibles to the team even when they are not the absolute most talented guy. If Murray and his scouts are convinced Landeskog could be that kind of guy for Ottawa then I would sanction a move to trade up for him if the price was reasonable(Ottawa’s worse second rounder would be as high as I would go).
I just don't think there's a way to get him without giving up a lot
Or winning the lottery. I guess we’ll see tonight!
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Hoped to see more from Svatos
He was cleared to play pretty much right after the Bruins game…too bad the season’s over :(
Butler
Gotta be a big part of this rebuild after showing what he can do when he plays regularly? Agreed?
More cheers, more beers, thats it thats all.
He sure has the look of a diamond in the rough
Which only makes me want to make sure we bring him along correctly and don’t just throw his ass in the fire.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Could have argued the same about Regin at the end last year.
And he had a helluva slump. So lets see how they do in training camp and go from there.
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