Alright it's somewhat irrelevant and stretchy analogy time! With the impressive win tonight as well as a string of stellar play against teams in contention recently I pose an intentionally vague question:
Are the Sens at Jan 2, 2009 or March 6, 2009?
On Jan 2, 2009 the TSX stood at 9,234, down 38% from the June 2008 highs of almost 15,000, but had just rallied 14% from the December low of 8,117. Optimism reigned as people thought "shit, that market smelled like a fart had sex with a pulp mill, but I think we're gonna be OK now so let's go ahead with exactly what we were doing before and buy back in." The market proceeded to treat the investing community like a red headed step child and fall to new lows at March 6, 2009 of 7,591. Since then the TSX has been like 6 grizzly bears vs a river of salmon and has rallied 85% all the way back to 14,000.
Now hold on a sec guy, you might be yelling if you don't understand how the internet works, what's the point? Well sir A) you are rude and B) Proceed through ze jump for more.
Arguably, the Sens peak was Fisher's goal 1:38 into the first period of Game 1 of the 06-07 Stanley cup finals and since then the Senators have essentially had 3.8 seasons replaced by spiders (yes there have been redeeming moments....but.....) all the way down to officially becoming the worst team in the league on March 7, 2011 (though some may say tonight's "Craig for mercy" headline was the low point).
Since then the Sens have:
- Gone 7-3 with 6 of those 7 wins coming against playoff teams,
- Have recieved underwear-crowdingly awesome goaltending from both Anderson and Two Pad Stacklehinny
- Have had slick contributions from their kids (Contra, the Bust, Soylent)
- Have watched Phillips and Lee become a.....passable shut down tand.........em?
So the long and the short of this is, are we at Jan 2nd, 2009 right now facing a sucker's rally where we (Murray) dive back in, sign a top 6 guy, trade some picks and go for it? (I've heard "quick rebuild" bandied around a lot from ownership) and instead end up falling ever lower like the Oil or Leafs?
Or are we at March 2009, where we take this for what it is, a nice bump from the kids/team playing pressure free hockey with a hot goalie and a sunshine and unicorn poop attitude that will, in all likelihood, not hold up an entire season (or even close to one)? So next year we stockpile picks again, run a cheap team out there, get our team of twentysomething third liners some much needed experience, and take our grizzly-bear-fueled run to 14,000 in 2012 or 2013 or even farther out I guess in the worst case scenario.
I know what everyone's reaction is going to be on this that there's no way we'd cut the reform short like that, management OBVIOUSLY knows that this can't last, etc etc etc but we've all seen it happen with other perma re-building organizations.... and I'm pretty sure that the guys plowin' their money back in in Jan 2009 thought they'd turned the corner too before crapping in the diaper of despair right?
Sorry to self promote on here, but for more clever bathroom financial humor and tenuous analogies check out my other blog at www.guynance.com.