In memory of competitive Ottawa Senators teams of days gone by...

by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 23, 2011 10:47 AM EDT in Satire

With the Ottawa Senators loss to the Carolina Hurricanes last night, the ride is officially over: According to SportsClubStats, the Senators are officially eliminated from the 2011 NHL playoff race. Sure, we all saw it coming from a mile away, but the fact that it is now official, well, it comes with a certain level of finality.

With that in mind, we here at Silver Seven have composed a hymn of mourning, in memory of the competitive Senators squads of years gone by. But with some lights appearing at the end of this tunnel, in the form of key prospects and ample draft picks, we pray that this mournful tone is simply a temporary one.

(To the tune of 'Amazing Grace')

Amazing once, how sweet the sound
of puck on net, it's true
The only time we hear it now
Is when teams score on you

Through the Gerber years and Redden too,
Heatley's whiny trade request
We've gnashed our teeth and stuck with you
You repaid us with this mess

(Many more verses after the jump... )

We've worn our Sens jerseys with pride
We've cheered and we've believed,
But now you suck, you can't win games
If you did, we'd be relieved.

Alfie has promised much to us
A Cup, we've been assured
So many years, we've waited now
How long must we endure?

A Sens fan I will always be
I'm there through loss and win
But it would be nice to have company
With me on the bandwagon

Please win some games so we can be
Proud to wave our Sens flags
'Cuz if you don't we may be forced
To borrow Leafs' fans paper bags

Special thanks go to Nikki for composing the above hymn. It should be noted much of this was written before the Brian Elliott trade, when the picture looked far more bleak than it does today. Still, much of the sentiment remains.

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Hate to ruin it

But we are not officially eliminated.

If we go 9-0-0, Buffalo goes 0-9-0, Carolina goes 1-7-1 or worse (note Carolina is guaranteed a win if Buffalo goes 0-9-0) and the other teams below the Sens also don’t catch up, the Sens will beat the Sabres in a tiebreaker due to more non-shootout wins.

Am I that petty? You damn right. ;)

Trying to be Erik Karlsson's agent since October, 2010.

by Adnan on Mar 23, 2011 10:51 AM EDT reply actions

It's not possible

If you look at all the permutations and combinations and understand that any game one team loses their opponent wins, it can’t happen; the Senators can’t make the playoffs.

The final games for Buffalo, Carolina, Toronto, Atlanta, New Jersey, the Islanders, and Florida all include games against one another. There is literally no possible mathematical way that we can surpass all of those teams and then make the playoffs.

Look at the SportsClubStats link! They ran 100,000,000 simulations.

An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com

by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 23, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Nope it is possible

I think they just forgot to update the tiebreaker, under the old tiebreaker, Sens/Sabres would have exactly 36 wins, but Buffalo would win the head to head tiebreaker. Under the new rules, non-shootout wins is the first tiebreaker.

Carolina does play Buffalo once, but they can afford to win once.
Toronto also plays Buffalo once, but Toronto can win up to 2 games.
The other teams are much further back of the Sens maximum 81 point total.
If you look on twitter, there are various posts about the Sens eliminated with 1 more loss or 1 more Buffalo point.

It’s not official damn it! :P

Trying to be Erik Karlsson's agent since October, 2010.

by Adnan on Mar 23, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I still trust the computer more than you. Sorry.

An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com

by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 23, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Here are the records that would allow it (statistically)

BUFFALO 0-9-0 for 81 points
CAROLINA 1-8-0 for 80 points
TORONTO 1-7-0 for 78 points
ATLANTA 2-8-0 for 76 points
NEW JERSEY 2-7-0 for 76 points
NY ISLANDERS 3-5-0 for 76 points
FLORIDA 3-6-0 for 74 points
OTTAWA 9-0-0 for 81 points

This is accounting for the results of all 133 remaining regular season games, but assumes all games ending in regulation.

That would give Buffalo and Ottawa 81 points each, with 36 wins each. Under tie-breaker rule #2, Ottawa would take 8th.

Statistically insignificant odds, but still mathematically possible.

by B_T on Mar 23, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I like you

Trying to be Erik Karlsson's agent since October, 2010.

by Adnan on Mar 23, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I built an excel sheet to do this a few weeks ago

Plug in the current standings for each team, give each team a priority, and it spits out the “optimal” results for every remaining game (on a game by game basis, so if two teams are given the same priority and play each other, it will give the win to the team expected to be further behind on that day) in the league.

by B_T on Mar 23, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know why SportsClubStats didn’t calculate it this way, then. Perhaps the chances of all that going right is less than one in 100,000,000, because that’s now many simulations they run.

An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com

by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 23, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

They calculate probability

I simply calculated possibility. Much easier math.

So while this is (theoretically) possible, you’re right that it may be so improbable that it didn’t come up in the 100m sims. They don’t guarantee that every every possible permutation is actually represented in their predictions.

It’s also possible they forgot to update the tie-breaker rules, as Buffalo would have the tie breaker on Ottawa under the old rules.

by B_T on Mar 23, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I counted there to be 59 games left involving seeds 8th to 15th

With 4 possibilities for each game —> Win, Shootout win, Loss, OT loss (note OT loss and shootout loss are identical)

There are a total of 4^59 combinations of game results.

That is a 3.323 × 10^35 or…

332,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 combinations.

Fun stuff!

Trying to be Erik Karlsson's agent since October, 2010.

by Adnan on Mar 23, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

The real trick comes in calculating the number of combinations that would result in a tie at 81 points for 8th

The records I posted are only one such possibility, but more exist as there is some flexibility in the results for 9th-14th that would end with that final standing.

by B_T on Mar 23, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, and it's not just the records...

Carolina could also go 1-7-1 and Ottawa could get in, but that isn’t one more possibility, that’s 8 more possibilities.

by B_T on Mar 23, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep

1 * 8C7

Then multiply it by the combinations of the 50 games not involving Carolina that result in Ottawa making it.

Trying to be Erik Karlsson's agent since October, 2010.

by Adnan on Mar 23, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I failed math in what was then grade 13

Top marks in English though

by Hockey Playoff Run SensFan on Mar 23, 2011 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Your nitpicking

by Hockey Playoff Run SensFan on Mar 23, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I tend to annoy people with that a lot :(

I can’t help it.

Trying to be Erik Karlsson's agent since October, 2010.

by Adnan on Mar 23, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

His nitpicking?

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Mar 23, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Boom

http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/

by DaveYoung on Mar 23, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm glad I found this blog

Always entertaining and the intelligence level is refreshing. There are so many that are just about insulting each other viciously with posts that make no sense. Keep up the good work. I hope you guys watch some playoffs this year I would like to discuss what going on in some of these series. We should pick a couple to discuss. I could go and join those groups but I would be viewed as an outsider.

by Hockey Playoff Run SensFan on Mar 23, 2011 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

Oh, we'll be watching the playoffs

We’re hoping to have Nuggets whenever possible/appropriate about Senators and other hockey news, plus we’re planning on having daily discussion threads for playoff games of that night. There will be plenty to keep people busy, as long as readers are interested in still coming around!

An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com

by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 23, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions