Senators for Sale: Sergei Gonchar

by Alexander Calloway on Feb 3, 2011 7:00 AM EST in Analysis

Sergei Gonchar

#55 / Defenseman / Ottawa Senators

Height: 6-2

Weight: 211

Born: Apr 13, 1974

Contract status
Signed with a $5.5M cap hit through 2012-13.

Pros
One of the finest offensive defensemen to ever play the NHL, with 705 regular season points in his career and 80 playoff points. He's a very highly respected veteran in the league, with over 1,000 regular season games and a Stanley Cup on his resume. Although he's getting older, Gonchar is seventh in defenceman scoring since the lockout in fewer games than anyone in the top six.

Cons
He's not getting any younger at 36 years old, and looks like he's slowed down. If he doesn't have a offensive core to work with, he won't likely put up solid numbers; he can't lead the offence on his own. His defensive abilities are suspect, and his plus-minus this season is abysmal. Plus his 35+ contract, with a no-trade clause and $5.5M for two more seasons, does not look appetizing to many teams.

Trade value
Moderate. He has a no-trade clause, but unless the New York Islanders or Edmonton Oilers are calling, I don't think he'll use it. He's been to two Stanley Cup Finals, and has 80 playoff points, so teams in the hunt with a need on the blueline could make a move. Some teams might be the Boston Bruins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and San Jose Sharks--but if a deal is made, the Senators would have to take salary back..

Trade Likelihood
Nil. There were rumours that the Senators have been shopping Gonchar, but it seems unlikely other teams will be able to justify picking him up. This season will likely be his career-worst, which isn't surprising considering how poorly the Senators are playing, but it doesn't make him attractive for potential suitors. That, combined with his age and his contract, mean that there's close to zero chance he'll move on this season.

Realistic Return
That's a good question. If this was the last year of his contract, he'd probably bring in a first-rounder or a good prospect. But with two years left on his deal, and at the age of 36 (turning 37 in April), it's tough. A team might be willing to trade a contract for a contract, and perhaps sweeten the deal with picks if the contract coming to Ottawa is particularly egregious, but that's not the kind of deal Bryan Murray or Eugene Melnyk is looking for.

Tweet Comment 17 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I like his experience a lot.

If we were to trade Phillips or let him go or whatever, Gonchar’s resume will become valuable, especially since we have a lot of young defenders expected to come up.

by Los Blancos Chicca on Feb 3, 2011 8:26 AM EST reply actions

Gonchar is improving

5 points and +5 in 13 games in 2011. But as you mentioned, he will be difficult to trade as he’s had a subpar year (though I wouldn’t say awful). His value to us over the last 2 years if he improves outweighs any return we could possibly get for him and his contract.

Plus, we are not exactly short of cap room in the next couple years anyway.

Trying to be Erik Karlsson's agent since October, 2010.

by Adnan on Feb 3, 2011 10:19 AM EST reply actions

It's all situational

In the right circumstances, I think he would be fine. On the Team, Jason York has mentioned a few times that the relationship the defense has with the forwards, in particular the centers, is critical to success.

Pierre McGoo has also made the observation in his morning chat with TGOR that virtually the entire Russian squad that got trounced by Canada at the Olympics has suffered individual statistical sags since then.

by Be_rad on Feb 3, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

I think Trade Value is “Mediocre” and at best he returns a UFA salary dump to match salaries, MAYBE with a 4th or 5th round pick.

Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.

by DarrenM on Feb 3, 2011 10:22 AM EST reply actions

Probably marginal, yeah

Our sliding scale for those two categories is nil-marginal-moderate-high.

An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com

by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 3, 2011 10:38 AM EST up reply actions

Trade possibitlity

If a team has a player they don’t want back who’s in his last year of his contract and has a similar salary and have a need for a power play specialist then maybe they could trade for him and that’s about it. Lot’s of And’s in there.

by Hockey Playoff Run SensFan on Feb 3, 2011 11:09 AM EST reply actions

I'd like to point everyone's attention to the photo caption

I thought it was hilarious, myself.

An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com

by Peter Raaymakers on Feb 3, 2011 11:29 AM EST reply actions

A regular laugh riot

by Be_rad on Feb 3, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

Haha that is awesome!

Trying to be Erik Karlsson's agent since October, 2010.

by Adnan on Feb 3, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't trade him

As was mentioned earlier, we wouldn’t likely get fair value in return.

Additionally, I’m excited to see what he’s capable of doing once Cory Clouston is out of the picture, and once we revamp our defense corps. I feel as though if his even strength and penalty kill TOI are reduced, he’d be a total boon to the team. He would be best suited as a second pairing defenseman playing a minute and a half of powerplay time per advantage, and while that probably doesn’t amount to 5.5 million worth, we would be playing him in his element.

by LeTigre on Feb 3, 2011 3:34 PM EST reply actions

I would

He is a playoff piece at this stage of his career. We’re not going to sniff the playoffs in the next two years, so I’d rather have the pick or prospect than him. His biggest strength is his mentor role for Karlsson, but I don’t know if that’s worth $5.5M a year.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Feb 3, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

Love to move him, but need a taker

I would be more than fine with moving Gonchar because not only has he not really lived up to Ottawa’s expectations(although personally I didn’t expect much from him), but I would say that Ottawa probably hasn’t lived up to his expectations either. The trick is finding a trade match. Moving him now is probably no harder than moving him later because even though his contract will be shorter later, he will be that much older and slower and therefore less valuable.

My best case scenario for trading Gonchar would be to get a defensive defenseman back for him who might have a shorter deal and/or who would come with draft picks. Sens are likely to have to take back some dollars so if they can get a Sutton or whatever back then that would be someone to pair with Karlsson/Rundblad/Campoli next season. Hopefully the players deal expires at the end of next year and then the year after Wiercioch/Gryba or another young guy takes his place.

BTW, I am assuming that only Cowen and Rundblad have a realistic shot at playing for the Sens next season and the other young d-men will need another year in the minors before being ready for NHL duty. It is also probably better not to bring up to many young guys at once.

Lastly, if the Sens have to keep Gonchar throughout his deal that is not the worst case scenario. It just seems like a waste of his time and Ottawa’s.

by DW19 on Feb 4, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, and I doubt Ottawa will be able to find a taker

If he stays on the team, it’s not the worst thing in the world.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Feb 4, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

I'd move him for peanuts

He cost us nothing to acquire (in terms of roster players or picks) and he’ll just cost us money going forward. We are NOT going to contend for the Cup for the next two years, so he is a perfect salary dump for us to help Eugene keep some money in his pocket. If there is a team at this deadline that will give up a first rounder and an expriring contract, take it. This is what a rebuild is all about.

Or we could take the approach of Brian Burke and Kaberle and wait until he’s in the final year of his contract and get nothing. Toronto screwed up because keeping Kaberle did nothing for them in the standings and they missed their only opportunity to get anything of value in return. His NTC means nothing, just ask Dan Boyle. If Burkie wanted him gone, he could have done it.

Move Kuba and Gonchar for anything you can get.

by Geoff Cheek on Feb 4, 2011 3:49 PM EST reply actions

Trade partners

And while he has a tough contract to move, you needn’t look further than Scott Hannan and Michael Roszival to see that defencemen can be traded at any time. Maybe it is just that Murray can’t get anything done.

by Geoff Cheek on Feb 4, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions