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Where's the Nick Foligno bandwagon? I want to get on board


Milan Michalek and Erik Karlsson have gotten most of the press for the Ottawa Senators this year, and rightfully so--they are having outstanding seasons by any measuring stick. But lost in their success is the extremely impressive play of another young Senator: Nick Foligno.

Through 29 games this year, Foligno has 19 points (10G, 9A), putting him on pace to destroy his previous season high of 34 points (14G, 20A), set just last year. Foligno has also thrown 82 hits, putting him on pace to obliterate his season high of 119, also set last year.

Why is this so impressive? Foligno's pace of 53 points is not terribly exciting by itself--there are plenty of 50-point players in the NHL these days. But this is Nick Foligno we're talking about, and probably no Senators player has been a bigger tease over the past few seasons.

Star-divide

At the beginning of the year, I was skeptical that Foligno's improved play could be sustained. I had been burned too many times in the past.

In 2008-09, his first full season with the Senators, Foligno notched 17 goals and 15 assists for 32 points. Most promising, seven of those goals came on the power play. Foligno was looking like the kind of player the Senators desperately needed: A young punk not scared to go to the corners and fight. A foolhardy thrillseeker willing to stand in front of the net on the power play and screen the goalie while Mike Fisher launched facebreakers from anywhere he could.

The next season saw him miss a big chunk of time due to a broken leg from blocking a shot. While his assist total climbed to 17, his goals had dropped to 9, a production level that would have seen him score about 34 points if he had played the whole season. But most tellingly, his power play production took a steep drop. Foligno's style of play had changed that year, and he seemed more interested in feeding Alex Kovalev for fancy plays than just doing what he had found success with the previous season.

Come last year, there was reason to believe that he had seen the error of his ways and was going back to the style of play that worked best for him. In the preseason, he had six points (4G, 2A) in six games, and they were beauties, every single one of them. The kid was playing his heart out, and he also wasn't willing to be pushed around, racking up 17 PIMs in the same span. He looked energized and ready for a bigger role with the team.

Then the regular season started, and he had just three points in the month of October--all assists.

November also netted him three points, and included an excruciating nine-game pointless streak. His pendulum had swung completely to the other extreme and he looked nothing like the player Sens fans had watched during the preseason. That Foligno was confident with the puck and with his abilities. This Foligno was hesitant and almost deferential to his linemates.He finished the year with 34 points (14G, 20A), which was good for third on a team that had seen players like Mike Fisher and Chris Kelly traded away, and a brutal minus-19 rating that left him tied among the forwards for worst on the team.

This, then, was Nick Foligno: plenty of potential, most of it unrealized. 32-, 26- (34 extrapolated), and 34-point seasons told the tale. Foligno was a 30-point guy--the kind of player who would chip in a goal or assist here or there but couldn't be expected to deliver much more than that.

There was no reason to believe that Foligno would be anything different this year. Once again, he only had three points (1G, 2A) in October, and though he was playing a much more physical game, it was easy to dismiss it--he had teased potential for too long to believe it would be sustained.

Now November has come and gone and his 11 points (5G, 6A) and 39 hits can't be ignored. Not only did he sustain his physical play, he improved his offensive play. He is not the goalie screener of his first season--that role has gone to Colin Greening--but he has found his desire to play in front of the net, crashing goalies with regularity, and taking heaps of abuse for doing so.

And that brings us to today. Foligno is on a six-game point streak, and a three-game goal streak. He's recorded a point in every game the Senators have played in December, and looks right at home centering Daniel Alfredsson and whomever else plays on his line. His hits haven't dropped off and he's been above average in the faceoff circle.

Foligno has sustained his improved level of play too long to ignore it or dismiss it merely because he has teased fans with potential in the past. While it's early in the season, and therefore still possible he might go on an extended pointless run, something about his style of play makes me think that won't happen this time around. This year's Nick Foligno doesn't seem content to try to convert the chances that come his way or to try to get fancy with the puck. Rather, he seems intent on creating his own chances, and that kind of effort level is usually the difference between extended success or streaky play in the NHL.

It's also made a believer out of this doubter.

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Always been a fan of Foligno

After that dreadful start last year I really didn’t want to comment on how great he’s been this year for fear of jinxing him but he’s been really, really good. He and Alfie just seem to gel together and have amazing chemistry. When he’s not scoring, he’s doing the little things that make the non-elite hockey players valuable to your team. Nick is another bright spot for the Sens in what the “experts” predicted would be a dismal season.

Although, I think it’s still too early to be talking about the playoffs…second last paragraph, last sentence.

by JeffreyLebowski on Dec 9, 2011 7:29 AM EST reply actions  

haha. I saw that too.

I think it’s a sign we’re making the playoffs! ;)

by Pmoron on Dec 9, 2011 9:17 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

Ha!

Late night writing at its finest. Thanks for the catch!

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 9, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions  

It's been a great start...

…but I still don’t think he keeps up this pace over the course of the season. Although, I would love to be wrong.

by Barnsley Pal on Dec 9, 2011 8:04 AM EST reply actions  

I didn't think he could keep up the pace for a month

But it’s been two and a half months now. I’m ready to believe.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 9, 2011 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I am becoming a fan too

It has been over a third of the season, and he is still keeping it up. In fact, he has been even better since moving to centre. Let’s see if he can keep it up long term without Michalek.

Plus calling Crosby a hyprocrite also helped make me a fan.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 9, 2011 8:42 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I have been very impressed with Foligno.

He has been very confident, very aggressive and persistent. I hope he keeps it up!!!

by Los Blancos Chicca on Dec 9, 2011 8:52 AM EST reply actions  

Yay for Foligno

When I watched Foligno from up close in preseason and then during a game, I was struck by how much skill he seemed to have for a guy who gets so many opportunities and in the past seemed to bury so few of them.

It is wonderful to see his energy and finally that he is learning to cash in on some of his opportunities. That goal he scored the other day where he went around everyone was something else.

And I always love forwards who are bangers.

I don’t know if it has anything to do with it, but he got married recently.

by Marvellous on Dec 9, 2011 8:55 AM EST reply actions  

I've always had faith in Furby.

I think it’s easy to forget that he’s still younger than most of our rookies. I’m pretty sure Greening, Condra and Daugavins are all older, while Smith is only a year younger. Sometimes it takes these guys a while to find their stride.

by Pmoron on Dec 9, 2011 9:24 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions  

Furby has been trying to play to his weaknesses, not his strengths.

He’s a grinder, he has some skill, and he should play that up rather than trying to do other things. He seems to be doing better under Paulrus which is good, and hopefully he manages to reach his potential this year.

Also, the caption was awesome.

by The Tif on Dec 9, 2011 9:30 AM EST reply actions  

Agreed

Seems like Paulrus has him playing to his strengths. None of the fancy stuff from years past—just solid north-south hockey.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 9, 2011 9:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Think about players in Detroit who seem to come out of nowhere to produce. I’m thinking a guy like Johan Franzen, who isn’t an upper echelon guy, but under the Babcock/MacLean regime went from being a 30 something point guy to a 50 something point guy. Mikael Samuelsson went from being nothing and bouncing from team to team to a consistent 40-50 point guy. Who knows, maybe the right kind of coaching can really get more out of some of these players than what we’ve been getting the last few years.

by modsuperstar on Dec 10, 2011 9:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Now if only we could lure away a guy from Detroit ...

That’s a great point. We’ve seen what happens when people are used improperly (Gonchar on the wrong side of the PP for example), and so I’m glad that Paulrus appears to have some buy in.

by The Tif on Dec 10, 2011 9:34 AM EST up reply actions  

BUT WE COULD HAVE DRAFTED PAVEL DATSYUK INSTEAD OF CHRIS NEIL.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 10, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

OR HENRIK ZETTERBERG INSTEAD OF MIKKO RUUTU!!

by The Tif on Dec 11, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Amazing.
Foligno was looking like the kind of player the Senators desperately needed: A young punk not scared to go to the corners and fight. A foolhardy thrillseeker willing to stand in front of the net on the power play and screen the goalie while Mike Fisher launched facebreakers from anywhere he could.

Excellent article, Parisi.

by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 9, 2011 9:34 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Recccccccccd

How is anyone supposed to top Sterling Snakehouse?

by worsteverything on Dec 9, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Nice

Well done Mark. Yeah, Foligno just turned 24 and it seems like he’s been here forever. He’s in his 4th year, and is on pace for 28 goals.

by Marvellous on Dec 9, 2011 9:37 AM EST reply actions  

There might be a “sell high” argument to be made.

by Varada on Dec 9, 2011 10:41 AM EST reply actions  

I think there definitely is

But it won’t be coming from me.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 9, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Anyone listen to HNIC Radio yesterday?

Cassie Campbell was talking about how her play was best when she played on the edge, with a bit of a nasty streak.

This makes me think of Foligno – his hard and tenacious forechecking, getting in the goalie’s grill, etc. all seems to be adding up to better offensive production as well. It looks very much to me like he’s found his edge and is playing on it.

Glad you wrote this Mark – I don’t think his performance had been highlighted as much as it should have been behind the likes of Michalek, Karlsson, Zmith, and Gonchar.

by west-sider on Dec 9, 2011 11:25 AM EST reply actions  

Great article, Mark

I could watch Foligno’s goal against the Capitals on repeat for days. DAYS.

Co-manager, Silver Seven

by DarrenM on Dec 9, 2011 11:40 AM EST reply actions  

I wonder how much of his scoring is due to the changes

in the last 10 months….suddenly, he comes to the realization that he is a veteran on the team and he has a chance to shine and be a leader amongst his peers….in another word, maturing as a player.

Has always been a fan because he is always skating, working and trying hard every shift even if he is blowing his tires most of the time in the corners.

Really happy to see him do well. Ten goals, all around the goal crease which means he battles hard for his goals.

by whatsinaname on Dec 9, 2011 11:57 AM EST reply actions  

I found it interesting that Nick's success has come at the same time as his switch to Centre

It’s almost like he just never got comforatable playing on the wing. Now that he’s playing Centre, he’s playing brilliantly!
Glad to see it from him. I have always said it’s too early to give up on him. I wouldn’t have predicted a 28 goal season, but I didn’t think 20 was a stretch for him!

Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.

by havey03 on Dec 9, 2011 1:31 PM EST reply actions  

Foligno is shooting 22.7%

4th highest in the league among players with enough shots (28) to qualify. He’ll definitely regress a little bit though.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 9, 2011 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

Good work Nick

I’d call myself a Foligno-doubter, too. I like what he has been doing so far this year. If he keeps it up then I am more than happy to flip-flop and become a Foligno supporter.

He has always struck me as a good character guy, but I have never believed in his ability to produce offensively. I’d love to be proven wrong.

by DW19 on Dec 9, 2011 3:58 PM EST reply actions  

Foligno has made me look like a jerk

For the last 3 seasons I’ve been spouting my non-beleiver nonsense to friends and family who’ve all told me to give the guy a break. Well I never did and from the comfort of my own home I judged and predicted when we were going to trade him and for who. This season, holy crap. Even some of the dekes that he’s pulled off to give himself and his team space to make plays has been unbeleivable.The dude has some great hands! If he keeps it up I might just think about keeping that Nick Foligno poster I got in the Ottawa Citizen…

by Tyler.mv on Dec 10, 2011 4:17 AM EST reply actions  

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