Silver Nuggets: Jason Spezza in the scoring race
by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 21, 2011 1:00 PM EST
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As it stands today, Ottawa Senators centreman Jason Spezza sits in a tie for sixth in NHL scoring with 37 points (12G, 25A) in 34GP, a rate of roughly 1.09 points per game. He's just two points behind the league's leading scorers, and he's on a tear right now: A six-game scoring streak with 12 points (3G, 9A) over that span. Not too shabby, especially when you consider that three of those games (and seven of those points) have been with the Senators' leading goal scorer, Milan Michalek, out of the lineup due to injury.
It brings up a question: How likely is it that Jason Spezza can win or approach the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL's leading scorer?
The biggest influencer in responding to this question is injuries. Spezza has only played a full 82-game season once in his career, back in 2008-09, and missed at least 20 games in each of the last two seasons. For him to even compete for the Art Ross, he'll have to stay healthy for the entire season.
But injuries also affect his competition, and they're really affecting his biggest competition right now: Claude Giroux and Evgeni Malkin are tied for the league lead in scoring, but both have already missed games due to injury--and Giroux could return this evening, while Malkin in already back (and Malkin has 15P in his last 6GP). They're scoring at paces of 1.39 and 1.44 P/GP, respectively. Spezza would really have to pick up his pace to catch up to and then surpass those two, to say nothing of other players in the mix for the Art Ross.
Last season, the Art Ross winner was Daniel Sedin, who scored 104P over a full season, a rate of 1.27 P/GP. At Spezza's current pace, he could be expected to score 89P in the season, which would have been sixth-best last year. On the off-chance Spezza is able to continue the pace he's set over the last six games (2 P/GP), he'd finish the year with 133P, the best single-season point total since 1995-96 (when Mario Lemieux scored 161 points to win the Art Ross). That seems pretty close to impossible.
So is it likely that Spezza could win the Art Ross Trophy this season? Despite his early-season success in the scoring race, not at all. Spezza's never scored more than 92 points in a season, and he'd likely need to break that personal record to come close to the league lead. He also has stiff competition in the race, and those he's competing against have significantly more high-calibre teammates and linemates than Spezza has. It could happen, but it would take a minor miracle.
Senators news:
- Stats and advanced stats from last night's win over the Sabres: Boxscore | Game summary | Event Summary | Face-offs | Play-by-play | Ice time | Shot summary | Corsi | Head-to-head | Zone starts | Scoring Chances
- Recaps from last night: Silver Seven | Citizen | Sun
- Tough luck for Jesse Winchester last night, who sustained a concussion after being hit from behind by Paul Gaustad in last night's game. There's no timeline for his return. (Sportsnet)
- Milan Michalek, however, is close to returning from his concussion. He might be back this week, but I'd expect the Sens to err on the side of caution and bring him back in after Christmas. (NHL)
- Wayne Scanlan takes a look at Kyle Turris' "rushed" development with the Phoenix Coyotes. (Citizen)
- Zenon Konopka has made a role for himself on the Ottawa Senators. (SenShot)
- Sens prospect Shane Prince and his Team USA mates are ready for rowdy crowds at the World Juniors in Edmonton this year. The tourney starts, as always, on boxing day. (Edmonton Journal)
- Also, Bruce at Puck Worlds is previewing each team in the lead-up to the World Juniors this year. He's written about Team Sweden, featuring Mika Zibanejad, already, as well as Team Slovakia and Team Denmark.
- Pretty cool that Marcus Foligno's NHL debut came against his brother just days before Christmas. (Citizen)
- The B-Sens play one last game tonight before the Christmas break, and they hope to get a few players back from injury once the team returns to action. (Press & Sun Bulletin)
NHL news:
- A massive 1800-word essay on Brian Elliott's continuously surprising NHL career. (Citizen)
- The Sens made a bunch of trades in 2011 (Mike Fisher, Brian Elliott for Craig Anderson, David Rundblad for Kyle Turris, and so on), but none of them made the list of the top ten biggest deals of the year. (Puck Daddy)
Finally, Kyle Turris still can't stop smiling.
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I was really surprised to notice this article had nothing to do with Rundblad before I noticed that Adnan didn’t write the Nuggets today… ;)
That'll be a new weekly feature
“Ranting about Rundblad”, to debut in 2012!
Adnan's weekly special: The One That Got Away
by RogerTheShrubber on Dec 21, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
or rather:
“The One that Won’t Let Go of The One that Got Away”
by west-sider on Dec 21, 2011 1:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Adnan is never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down.
Never gonna trade you for Turris, to the desert town!
I really enjoyed that Elliott article.
I love that he’s got better numbers than Thomas, doesn’t have the same quality defence in front of him, and yet he never gets mentioned by anyone but Blues’ and Sens’ fans.
by Pmoron on Dec 21, 2011 1:22 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
He may not have the same quality defense in front of him, but he’s got a Hitchcock system in front of him that tends to inflate a goalie’s numbers.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
Sure, maybe a little inflation.
However, we’re talking about .948 SV%, and 1.43 GAA. Halak has a .903, and 2.37. I would also argue that the Bruins inflate goalies’ numbers. I don’t think Rask has played well enough to earn a .939 and a 1.82. Interestingly enough, Thomas is a .943 and 1.84.
Just my humble opinion.
by Pmoron on Dec 21, 2011 2:02 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Halak had an awful start under Dennis Payne, and hasn’t had that many starts under Hitch. The starts he’s had under Hitch he’s put up good numbers.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
Why start Halak during a Brian Elliot unsustanable hot streak™?
Mike Weber Pressbox Incarceration Status: Free to roam the blueline.
"I know its a viable strategy and all, but i’d prefer the Flyers not try to take off Miller’s head with every shot."
Because the max setting on one of those models was always ‘10’, but ever since Hitchcock saw Spinal Tap, he thinks he can magically crank up this model to ‘11’ or higher.
If he’s not careful, she’ll blow any day now.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Dec 21, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
No he won't win Art Ross this year...
- he is on an average team, fighting for playoffs, not like Malkin Sedins or Giroux
- his competition is outscoring him (again, Malkin or Giroux)
- he needs Alfie on his line and Michalek to be healthy to get more asists
- if Turris can produce Spezza’s minutes will go down (even a little bit hurts)
- Spezza is streaky and this one will come to a halt too, which will be followed by a 5 game scoring drought.
+ with Turris in and Senators possibly getting solid second line, opposition will have to pay more attention to them, so Spezza will should get a little more freedom and a little more opportunities to create someting
+ if Senators can get powerplay going like they did earlier, Spezza can get more points
+ if Alfie replaced Greening on first line, Spezza can benefit
I guess the bottom line is – it is only up to him, he is good enough to get close to a 100, but can he step up to another level and play like a superstar?
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
Spezza is perennially under-appreciated
By pundit and, media and that generally pisses me off. But I think that until Alfie retires or slips into a checker-type role (a la Modano), I don’t think anyone outside of us is going to see Spezza as a real team leader/MVP. I think he has the skills to make an Art Ross happen – and I have a suspicion that Paulrus is the type who could make it happen for him – but I see it being a couple of healthy seasons away. I voted no, but if he’s motivated, he could do it as early as next year.
I give better career odds to Karlsson though. (That ought to be good for some Adnan love.)
by west-sider on Dec 21, 2011 1:55 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
A buddy of mine does the ESPN player power rankings and when he dropped Spezza out of the top 100 forwards last year I gave him an earful about it. Even now he’s still got him ranked at #44 for expected performance for the rest of the year, which I find outrageous.
by modsuperstar on Dec 21, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Good.
Give him an earful for me too ;)
by Pmoron on Dec 21, 2011 3:18 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
just looking at the NHL standings
And the lofty Pittsburgh Pens are TSN Power ranked 9th and sit 5th in the East. The Sens are Power ranked 23rd and sit 8th in the East (no games in hand). I know they’re Pittsburgh… but there is very little case here to support such a disparity.
I hate Scott Cullen @ TSN
Not just for Power Rankings on TSN, but for just overall undervaluation of Sens in general. Can’t remember last time he was positive about Sens, but then again, I understand I am not the most objective person to talk about it either…
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
All the power rankings are allegedly based on stats.
It does make it hard to understand how the Sens are ranked so low, although I suspect goal differential, games played, and our goalies’ not-so-hot stats don’t help.
by sensory_experience on Dec 22, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
I always feel like it's a silly thing to get worked up about
I mean, what do the power rankings actually affect? I don’t care what anyone thinks about the Senators as long as their opinions have no impact on how they do. If the NHL were like the BCS, I’d be losing it. But it’s not, so it’s just some dude’s opinion.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Dec 22, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
I agree.
But I also understand people who do get worked up. It’s like getting worked up when any columnist runs down your team in any kind of piece – and people get worked up about stuff on Puck Daddy and in the Sun all the time.
Yeah, I understand the emotional connection
I just don’t have it myself.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
only reason i think there's cause to care
Aside from how it hurts my feelings is that a number of prominent sports journaliats vote for a number of the awards and if they decide to convince themselves of a team or associated players’ inferiority it means those players have to be that much better than, say, a leaf or a pen to get due consideration.
by west-sider on Dec 22, 2011 12:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed, I don't think he has a shot at the Art Ross
But if he’s in the top five or even the top ten, he’s still had a fantastic year.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Exactly, there is no shame at being 5th in points in whole NHL!
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
Stupid writing...
As it stands today, Ottawa Senators centreman Jason Spezza sits in a tie for sixth in NHL scoring with 37 points…
What a weird first sentence. Which is it, Peter, stands or sits?
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 21, 2011 1:32 PM EST reply actions
I think that guy hates me
You should probably approach him this time. I’ve given him shit so often recently, he’s probably ready to kill me.
Silver Seven | Twitter | Facebook | E-mail | eBay
by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 21, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
One of my pet peeves is when people repeat a word within a sentence.
So I’ll take stands and sits over stands and stands ;)
by Pmoron on Dec 21, 2011 2:06 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I do that all the time
I can’t stand it, and I take forever to write because I’m always going back and editing.
“Tonight, the Sens played the Sabres in a hard fought battle, and surprisingly, it was Kyle Turris’ line that led the way tonight.”
OH REALLY DID THEY PLAY TONIGHT, YOU IDIOT?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
As it stands today, Ottawa Senators centreman Jason Spezza sits in a tie for sixth in NHL scoring with 37 points…
I just checked the stats and wouldnt he be tied for 3rd?
C Henrik Sedin VAN 33 9 30 39
C Evgeni Malkin PIT 27 15 24 39
R Claude Giroux PHI 28 16 23 39
C Phil Kessel TOR 33 19 20 39
This group is tied for 1st
L Daniel Sedin VAN 32 13 25 38
Is in 2nd….
R Marian Hossa CHI 33 15 22 37
C Jason Spezza OTT 34 12 25 37
C Steven Stamkos TB 32 20 17 37
…leaving this group tied for 3rd in point scoring.
I guess “technically” he is in a tie for 6th “Place” in the standings if you look at it in the way of awarding a medal (ie. A tie for Gold means there can be no silver and then a Bronze is awarded to the runner up) However he is actually tied for 3rd in points.
Do you even read posts?
Alright. For arguments sake. We both have a race. We each take 5:05 to complete the race. I am listed on the stats sheet first. You are listed second. I guess that means that you are in second place and I am first. Since there is one person ahead of you it’s hard to say that you are tied for 1st. Really?? Please Re-read my first posts as I did say that he is tied for 6th PLACE even though he is tied for 3rd in POINTS.
On a side note, anyone know of any boxing day jersey sales?
I have the distinct feeling I will not be getting my heritage jersey for Christmas…
Puck Daddy article
Hard to believe that with all the wheeling and dealing that we didn’t make the list when you consider a 40-year old mountain man goalie trade from T-Bay to Long Island ranked 8th?! Fisher to Nashville. Kelly to Boston who has become a pretty important guy on that team – but I guess the fact he’s such a bad guy brings no love though.
by west-sider on Dec 21, 2011 2:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I don't have a problem with it
The deals they chose were all bigger deals than the ones we made.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I bet if Pittsburgh knew we were going to get a stud like Ryan Dzingel they wouldn't have done the deal
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Hahahaha... that's actually who we picked?
AMAZING TRADE.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 21, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, no kidding
I can’t believe how that’s looking for us right now.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Roloson to NYI was a bigger deal?
I’m not buying that one.
by west-sider on Dec 21, 2011 9:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Spezza will only get better...
Guy is a monster in the making, but that making just took too long and that is why he is under-appreciated, and under-performing in many eyes. And I think that is fair too, because you Stamkos, Perry, Malkin, Crosby and others all have done something better, faster, more consistent, etc… but I hate people who look just at the numbers and do not see how hard some players work and how much they care. I think that right now, at this time Spezza cares more than anyone else on the team, even Alfie, because Alfie knows he is passing the torch to Spez, who will get even better with team again, and when two years from now the team is batling for division, he will be winning Art Ross (maybe).
After having 3 seasons of 87+ points he slowed down a bit, but whole team did, this year he is really back and that makes whole team so much better.
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
I'm extremely skeptical that Spezza will only get better
He would be the first center in a group of almost 1000 of his peers to consistently increase his scoring output after the age of 28. Not even Gretzky did that.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Depends on what "better" means
I agree that his point production isn’t going to skyrocket, but at the same time he’s not necessarily going to slow down over the next few years. He’s in his prime, physically. His point totals will fluctuate based on who he plays with. He scored 92 points a few years back because he played on the CASH line, and his production has dipped since because of injuries and less skilled linemates. Doesn’t mean he’s in decline or anything. He’s probably a more complete player now than he was too.
In terms of points per game, we should start to see a statistical decline next year
Albeit a very slow one.
In terms of overall play, I don’t think he’s ever been better.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I think the criteria for a decline would be a bit hard to define. He’s been injured so many times the last couple of years it’s hard to pinpoint what is his peak production level at this point in his career. He definitely still seems to be a better than a point a game player. I think a very comparable player to Spezza is a guy like Brad Richards. Injuries the last couple of years kept his points down, while still producing at a good clip when healthy. Looking at Richards he matched his career high at 29, so it’s not impossible that his peak production is still attainable going forward.
by modsuperstar on Dec 21, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
I included injured seasons in my original analysis
The criteria I used was solely points per game, so it wasn’t a deeply thorough analysis—more of a really broad look. I looked at all centers who had matched at least Spezza’s worst point per game production (which I think was ~.76) for more than one season during the past 20 years. Then I looked at their production by age. That gave me just under 1000 data points, which created this curve:
It’s definitely possible that he could peak in production based on numerous other factors, primarily outstanding wingers — the Heatley years speak for themselves on the chart — but I don’t believe he’ll defy this curve when none of the other players I compared did, either.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics
I stand by my statement, that in this year as well as 2-3 next years, Spezza’s points production will go up, his play will get more reliable, solid and team will get better. Again, I base it on getting better winger(s) – Michalek is very good, but second winger needs improvement for top notch 1st line. Also as whole team matures, he won’t do crazy (stupid) moves that much, because overall play will be more mature.
Of course anything can happen, injuries, bad trades, etc, but I trust statistics only as much as my own sample selection :) Love them, but in this case, I trust my senses more than stats even if statistically this means I should fail…
Great chart, can we see data and players you have picked too?
Thanks!
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
Which better wingers are coming in?
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 22, 2011 8:17 AM EST up reply actions
Silfverberg looks like he'll be better than most of our top-six wingers.
MAybe Zibby too in a couple years if he switches to wing.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
I sure hope so
But I’m far from sold on either of the two. Silfverberg could just as easily come in and be another Magnus Arvedson, instead of another Daniel Alfredsson. And Zibanejad strikes me as a Mike Fisher-esque player, more suited to second line than first.
Still, both of them can surprise me and I’d be overjoyed.
Silver Seven | Twitter | Facebook | E-mail | eBay
by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 22, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn’t necessarily figuring them to be actual first line players, merely better than our current first line players (ie: Greening).
Co-manager, Silver Seven
Exactly.
FTR, I think Zibanejad projects better than Fisher based on his puck skills. We’ll see if it pans out.
by sensory_experience on Dec 22, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Silfverberg could just as easily come in and be another Magnus Arvedson, instead of another Daniel Alfredsson.
Disagree. Personally, I’m ready to stand up here today and say, unquestionably, that Silfverberg will be another Daniel Alfredsson. I think we’ve all seen enough from him that it’s pretty much guaranteed, isn’t it?
/sarcasm
I'm at work, so you'll have to let me dig up the spreadsheet when I get home
I definitely agree it’s possible that Spezza’s production could go up if he gets better wingers — with Heatley, he was clearly over 1.3, and we shouldn’t see any noticeable dropoff in his game before he’s 34, if this trend is to be believed.
As far as I’m concerned, there’s not much coincidence between Michalek’s 19 goals and Spezza’s 1.08 points per game so far. Spezza is a catalyst, and he produces best when he has players who can help him finish the plays he creates.
I have to echo Peter’s question: Which better wingers are coming in?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
You caught me by my tongue here...
I just ask myself – is Greening a 1st line winger? As much as I respect him, as much as I’d love him to be, I do not think he is the answer long term. We can discuss here (I just do not see his skills yet, but I love his size, presence and effort), but even without a trade we have options in the future – Matt Puempel, Nikita Filatov, Bobby Butler, Stefan Noesen, Andre Petersson, Mark Stone. Two of those we had playing with Spezza this year, they just haven’t worked well and the coach did not like what he saw. Last year I have heard plenty of people saying – trade Michalek while you can, and I could not believe my ears – to me he was just having hard time coming back from an injury – you could see his speed and skill easily, and I believe this year Butler is having same issues, he can and will be better when his health allows him to be in top shape and that will allow to build up confidence on and off ice. But anyway Mario Lemieux put up his incredible 161 points season when he was… 30-31. I know Spezza is not Super Mario, but there is no reason to say that from now on it is all downhill for Spezza. Physically and mentally 30+ is not downhill, players can plateau and stay in top shape, look at Alfie, he had his best season when he was 34-35 yes I know he is not a Center, but he is human (I was told so, but I do not believe it). Actually Alfie had his 3 best seasons at 34-36 years old, so Spezza has lots of left in a tank and even without trades his Wingers (both) can improve…
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
Oh yeah, I don't think we'll see any appreciable drop off from Spezza just yet
That chart to me says he’s got six years of elite production left and then probably more than few years of very good production left unless injuries sap it.
I just don’t think we’ll see an increase in production. If Michalek is this player for the next six years, I’d expect to see Spezza stay right around a point per game.
That’s all I’m really saying.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Dec 22, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Spezza staying at PPG? Hater.
Kidding. :)
by sensory_experience on Dec 22, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
I have to echo Peter’s question: Which better wingers are coming in?
That’s a tough question to answer, and it depends on who the new ones are being compared to. If it’s relative to both Michalek and Alfie, perhaps there aren’t great chances of a significant and sustained improvement.
If we’re talking about Michalek and Greening (or, as has occasionally happened, Greening and Butler or some such), then there’s almost no question that Spezza will have better wingers in a few years — either because one of those will have developed and become stronger and more consistent, or because of new talent brought in. That could be someone like Silfverberg (or one of the younger prospects) or of course a UFA/trade.
by sensory_experience on Dec 22, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
I think it's a tough question to answer because there's no telling what the team will look like in a few years
But the truth is that right now, we don’t have any prospects in the system who look like they’ll be better than Michalek. That could change through the draft or free agency, but as it stands today, there’s no one in the system that could beat out Michalek for a top spot.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Dec 22, 2011 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
There's no one who would beat him out today, obviously, or they'd be playing...
… but I wouldn’t say it’s clear that no one would eventually out-produce him.
Sens management was heaping praise on Silfverberg this fall, and he was doing extremely well in the SEL until his injury. Plus we’ve got guys like Stone and Prince tearing it up in their leagues. Will that translate to the NHL? Totally unclear. But I don’t think you can definitively say that none of these guys project above Michalek. It’s too early to tell. And that’s not counting the possibility of bringing in a winger via trade or free agency. Or someone like Zibanejad ending up on the first-line wing instead of 2C.
And again, that’s why I didn’t focus on Michalek alone. Replacing Michalek+Alfie with better production on the wings is tough. But Spezza generally hasn’t been playing with both most of this year (or last). Beating out Michalek+[Greening/Butler] or some other type of combination like that is completely plausible, IMO, a few years down the line.
by sensory_experience on Dec 22, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting stuff
This is a really interesting chart, and it doesn’t factor in who the centers play with. Does the curve stay like this if they play with say a 60 plus point winger? How about two 60 point wingers… just as an example?
For sure we need to hedge by developing other centers in the meantime to pick up the slack if and when his production declines.
As we’ve seen, second line centers are not very plentiful, and the teams that have 3 solid centers are usually he best ones.
I didn't include those factors in the curve on purpose
My assumption is that Spezza will play with a wide range of players over the course of the remainder of his career. I left in as much data as I could to try and make the best approximation that I could. There’s injury-shortened seasons, crappy wingers, shitty seasons, etc. They’re all included because they could all happen to Spezza.
I have no doubt that his numbers would increase with two 60-point wingers. Not having players of that quality was my original argument for trading him.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
So young
OK, I can see why you did that. I am just shocked that these players, for the most part, peak at 27 years old.
That is sooooo young… and yet so many of the top centers are signing these almost lifetime contracts at top dollar.
Well, remember that "peak" is realtive here
Most of these guys sustain what they hit at 27 for many more years. They just don’t continue to improve in terms of points per game. That doesn’t mean that they don’t continue to improve in other areas. Yzerman is a great example of that.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
We argued on this before, but just to clarify, I believe your analysis meant to say the average of 1000 players declined, not “none of the other players”. There is a bit of a difference in that.
Some of those 1000 players went up, more probably went down, and on average it went down.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
No, none of the other players went up
There were seasons where they spiked of course, but the trend was downward for every player. No one’s points per game increased year over year after the age of 28.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
i'd like to see the confidence interval around those bars.
(it seems like the cool thing to be a stats-geek around here)
Pfft
You’re expecting too much from me. My chart isn’t statistically significant in any way. It’s just a rough approximation.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Dec 22, 2011 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
I was watching SportsCentre yesterday and they had this bit about how Mike Knuble’s 100-th game and how he scored more goals in his 30s than Gretzky and Yzerman. That stat just amused me.
by modsuperstar on Dec 21, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
He definitely gets overlooked around the league, but I’ve also given up hope for him becoming the next Datsyuk or Thornton. He’s great, and should stay that way for a while, but he’s not consistently exceptional. He’s on a tear recently though, and that’s what matters!
What I don’t understand is your comment about him caring more than everyone else on the team. Granted, I haven’t seen the last game, but that’s a pretty bold statement. A lot of guys here care, and I don’t think Spezza rises above the rest there. I like his scoring, but I don’t always see the determination to fight for the puck. To me, he still doesn’t always put his best effort in.
Things have a way of happening when you least expect them to.
I have always expected him to challenge for the Art Ross. But surely not in the first year of the rebuild. Besides, isn’t he supposed to be declining in production? The team is picked for last spot, and yet, here we are , battling for a playoff position. We are supposed to struggle for goals, but right now, we are 7th? in scoring. Karlsson projected to score 70+ points in his 3rd season? MM9 with 19 goals after 34 games? Smith with 9 goals to date (7 in his first 71 games before this season)? Spezza challenging for Art Ross? Hell, why not.
Challenging for the Art Ross? Doubtful.
The quality of his linemates just isn’t there, and he’s not in a division where he can dominate one or two crappy teams and inflate his numbers. If there’s one team in your division you play 8 times a year who you can dominate against, that’s huge for your stats.
Luckily, we now have 6 turns a year to beat the lowly Florida Panth …. wait, what?
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Dec 22, 2011 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
Rounding out nicely
I’d rather Spezza finish near the top of the scoring race, than be the winner of that race and lead the league in giveaways at the same time. He is rounding out nicely under Paulrus as a decent defensive player, instead of being the liability that he used to be, and he is more self-generating offensively than he used to be… making everyone around him better.
If Turris and or Z’jad become the ace second line center we want them to become, then Spezza will get even better because teams won’t be able to concentrate on defending against his line.
Giroux...
He’s awesome. 4 points in his return from injury. The bar has been set Michalek!
by The Dutch Treat on Dec 22, 2011 11:09 AM EST reply actions
Only 22nd overall
I always wondered what everyone was waiting for picking him 22nd in the draft. The guy averaged two points a game for gatineau in his last year, and 1.5 points the two years before. Duh…
The list of guys that went before him is incredible… Tlusty, Sanguinetti, Mitera… Fischer
Rundblad watch
He was on ice for 2 of their goals, but also for 3 goals against! :) finishing the night for -1.
However he got an assist, and his team won, so the score so far is Rundblad 1 – Turris 1.
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
Regin injured.
Shoulder again. Out indefinitely. Brutal.
by sensory_experience on Dec 22, 2011 11:33 AM EST reply actions
And this is why..
…trading for Turris was a good idea. Regin is the new Ales Hemsky/Martin Havlat. Good when he’s on the ice, but rarely on the ice.
by The Dutch Treat on Dec 22, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Yikes, really?
I’m not a doctor, but it sure seems like he keeps rushing back from that shoulder. At this point, I almost think he needs to shut it down for the year and get it fully healthy. He’s not doing himself or the team any good playing in spurts.
And if his shoulder was fully healthy and he keeps re-injuring it… that’s injury-prone.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Dec 22, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Due to Winchester injury, we only have 11 forwards for tonight's game, and 7 D
Of course, we could always put Karlsson on the wing. He played there during his conditioning assignment with the Ottawa 67s, didn’t he?
Co-manager, Silver Seven
by DarrenM on Dec 22, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Too bad we don't have Rundblad to replace him on the back end
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
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