Silver Nuggets: David Rundblad's rookie season has been as good as Erik Karlsson's
by Adnan on Dec 20, 2011 1:00 PM EST
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Erik Karlsson is the best offensive defenceman in the NHL right now. He has four more points than the next closest defenceman. He's also second in the NHL among all skaters in assists. Karlsson averages 25:29 of ice time per game and he has played over 20 minutes for 32 straight games, the only exception being the season opener in Detroit where he played 19:05. He has played over 25 minutes in 20 of the club's 33 games, or 61% of the games. Erik Karlsson is undoubtedly the best defenceman on the Ottawa Senators.
But how was Erik Karlsson's rookie season in 2009-2010? He had 26 points in 60 games but in his first 24 games, he had 1 goal, 5 assists and a -12 plus-minus rating. Looking at advanced statistics, Karlsson had +7.6 relative corsi. Looking purely at shots, the Senators fired 29.91 shots per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 on the opposition net and allowed 25.19 shots with Karlsson on the ice. The average relative corsi of Karlsson's opponents was -0.179. These are Karlsson's numbers at the end of the season, they were likely much worse after 24 games.
David Rundblad on the other hand has 1 goal, 3 assists and a -11 plus-minus rating. He is third on the Senators with a +9.1 corsi rating (behind only Karlsson and Daniel Alfredsson) and the Senators have 34.5 shots on net with Rundblad on the ice and allowed 28.31. Rundblad has been particularly unlucky so far with the Senators goaltenders having only an .858 5-on-5 save percentage and shooting only 5.25% themselves with Rundblad on the ice. Part of it of course is that Rundblad seems to make glaring mistakes, but part of it has just been Rundblad being unlucky. The mistakes will be cleaned up with experience and his luck will turn around as well. The relative corsi of Rundblad's opponents has been -0.135 (slightly tougher competition than Jared Cowen by the way for the whole season). Rundblad has single handedly created chances for Ottawa that eventually fizzled out because of his lack of experience in decision making. This will not always be the case.
Rundblad has every chance to be a first pairing defenceman. It is incredibly short sighted to pigeon hole him into a second pairing role on Ottawa. Jared Cowen has looked good for two weeks on the top pairing, but there is still a long way to go. Rundblad could end up being better offensively than Erik Karlsson. Even without that, Rundblad could easily have ended up playing 20 minutes a night on the second pairing in Ottawa. There are things David Rundblad could do with the puck that Erik Karlsson will never be able to. He is also bigger than Karlsson, albeit without the speed of Karlsson. Both players have excellent vision and a pairing between the two close friends would not have been inconceivable in the future.
Tonight's game
- Game preview. (Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra)
- An optimistic panel tonight with six out of the eight predicting a win. Peter has the Senators winning 5-1. (Senators Extra)
- The lines remain unchanged from yesterday. 1) Greening-Spezza-Alfredsson, 2) Foligno-Turris-Condra, 3) Smith-Regin-Neil, 4) Daugavins-Konopka-Winchester. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
- The defensive pairings have changed from yesterday with Filip Kuba returning with Erik Karlsson. 1) Kuba-Karlsson, 2) Cowen-Gonchar, 3) Phillips-Carkner. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
- One thing you can't deny about the trade, the Senators certainly have a lot of options for a second line centre in the future. You would have to think one of them is bound to work out. (Ottawa Sun)
- Kyle Turris was understandably very excited to be in Ottawa, after escaping a Phoenix system where he didn't fit in. Again, despite my reservations about the trade, I think Turris will work out here. Paul MacLean plays an offensive system which should suit Turris. (Ottawa Sun)
- Turris wouldn't criticise Phoenix despite being given the chance. He is a talented player, and according to Pierre McGuire, Turris will remind fans of Steve Yzerman. (Senators Extra)
- Nick Foligno will get to play against his brother, Marcus, tonight. (Ottawa Citizen)
- Erik Karlsson was inseparable at times with his good friend David Rundblad. He admits he was shocked to hear about the trade and says it is no fun to lose a friend on the team. Karlsson feels Rundblad will be a star one day. (Ottawa Citizen)
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Can we trade for Rundblad?
Maybe if we put together a package of Turris and a second round pick, Phoenix would trade Rundblad back to us?
The only crazy thing I wish we did is leave Rundblad in Bingo from the start of the season, promote Patrick Wiercioch to play with Gonchar and when Wiercioch’s value baloons, we trade him and our Second pick for Turris. THEN we promote Rundblad to Senators and the rest is history the future.
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
by TaBu on Dec 20, 2011 1:09 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Really, I think the optimal solution would have been to trade either Regin or Da Costa instead of Rundblad
Regin is extremely responsible defensively; he would have fit beautifully in Phoenix.
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by Mark Parisi on Dec 20, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Too bad Phenix had other options
Da Costa does not have much value.
Since it was becoming an auction and Phoenix had 2 other teams with solid offers on the table (but no first round picks) and at least 7 more somewhat interested teams, I do not think they would have taken Regin as part of a package – injury prone, unproven, inconsistent, 25 year old, with expiring (RFA) contract.. The problem here is that their team is owned by NHL, so they are looking to build up team for sell, they do not need players as much as solid long term prospects and picks – and with options they had we would have had to throw in a 1st round pick I am afraid, and that would have been criminal…
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
Yeah, for sure
Lopsided deals are always preferable when they benefit your team.
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Rundblad has every chance to be a first pairing defenceman. It is incredibly short sighted to pigeon hole him into a second pairing role on Ottawa.
Counterpoint:
Turris has every chance to be a top-line centreman. It is incredibly short sighted to pigeon hole him into a second-line role on Ottawa.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 1:12 PM EST reply actions
Apples and oranges
It is incredibly short sighted to pigeon hole apples and orranges into round holes.
The moral of the story – we are short sighted unless it is hindsight…
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
apples and oranges are both round
bam!
by west-sider on Dec 20, 2011 6:57 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
which do you prefer, apples or oranges?
I like oranges but apples are easier to eat.
by whatsinaname on Dec 20, 2011 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
This article wasn’t about Turris. But Jared Cowen’s first pairing stature isn’t any where as strong as Jason Spezza.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
by Adnan on Dec 20, 2011 1:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
That's not my point
My point is that you’re making a very specious argument based on the following factors:
An extremely small sample size (24 games), a tenuous comparison between very different players (Rundblad and Karlsson), a lot of liberal projections (“Rundblad could end up being better offensively than Erik Karlsson”), unproven statements (“There are things David Rundblad could do with the puck that Erik Karlsson will never be able to”), and a generally inadequate analysis.
I’m not saying I expected more analysis, I’m saying that you can’t make assertions or projections that have been made without balancing it. Rundblad can be great, but Cowen can be great, too. So can Turris. Any or all three of those players could also turn into complete nobodies.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
There is nothing wrong with saying Rundblad could be better offensively than Karlsson. He has a lot of raw talent.
As for the things he does with the puck, I am sure you have seen Rundblad deke out opposition players with ridiculous moves. Karlsson does that but not as often.
Rundblad is much more likely to be a 1st pairing defenceman than Kyle Turris as a first line centre.
And yes it is only 24 games, but in those 24 games, he hasn’t done much worse than Karlsson did. A lot of it is just making ourselves feel better.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
There is nothing wrong with saying Rundblad could be better offensively than Karlsson. He has a lot of raw talent.
Technically, no, but usually when statements made are like that, you balance it out. I mean… there’s really nothing wrong with saying that Stéphane Da Costa could be better offensively than Jason Spezza, either, even if we all find that highly unlikely.
As for the things he does with the puck, I am sure you have seen Rundblad deke out opposition players with ridiculous moves. Karlsson does that but not as often.
You’re right, but that’s a high-risk play that doesn’t necessarily have potential rewards matching the risk taken. I love seeing him make a move while manning the point and deke around the opposing winger, and I was impressed every time he did it, but little came of those moves; he’d just get covered by another opponent, forced towards the boards, and take a low-percentage shot or make a low-percentage pass. As opponents get to know his tendencies, though, they’ll simply play the body, causing a turnover at the offensive blue line with no defenceman back and the opposition skating into Ottawa’s end with speed.
Rundblad is much more likely to be a 1st pairing defenceman than Kyle Turris as a first line centre.
That’s your opinion. Not everyone will agree with it. You haven’t really backed that assertion up at all, even if you’ve made it repeatedly.
And yes it is only 24 games, but in those 24 games, he hasn’t done much worse than Karlsson did. A lot of it is just making ourselves feel better.
I’m not sure what your second sentence means, but all I’m saying is that a projection based on a 24-game sample size is specious at best. It’s just not realistic.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
You’re right, but that’s a high-risk play that doesn’t necessarily have potential rewards matching the risk taken.
On multiple occasions, it has led to him cruising right up to the net alone. He will learn to finish it better. His decision making will improve over time as well because he is just a rookie, so he knows when to try it.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
ASG Fan Vote, week 5
Forwards:
1. Phil Kessel 529,659
2. Daniel Alfredsson 445,213
3. Sidney Crosby 434,762
4. Jason Spezza 396,864
5. Joffrey Lupul 379,437
6. Milan Michalek 366,873
Defense:
1. Erik Karlsson 486,171
2. Dion Phaneuf 453,986
3. Kris Letang 365,090
4. Nicklas Lidstrom 349,770
5. Zdeno Chara 322,282
6. Sergei Gonchar 294,105
Goalies:
1. James Reimer 360,061
2. Tim Thomas 342,792
3. Marc-Andre Fleury 320,401
4. Carey Price 192,755
5. * Jimmy Howard 144,481
Woo take that Crosby! Now hopefully Giggles can pass him too.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
If Crosby doesn't play, wouldn't Spezza get his spot anyway?
Does anyone know?
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Not sure. Maybe if Crosby rules himself out of the game early.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Then, as it stands right now, we'd have 3 Leafs and 3 Sens in the starting line-ups
Thankfully, not necessarily starting on the same side…
It will just fuel the Leafs fan dreams of Spezza feeding it to Kessel.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I'd take Kessel
for Rundblad.
"I couldn't score in a brothel...couldn't finish a sandwich"
- Joe Corvo
by MadCash on Dec 20, 2011 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder if they do a draft format if Alfie would have the guts to pick any Leafs
I imagine not.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
If the captains are Alfie and a Bruins guy (say Chara), hope Kessel is last again. ;)
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Someone please do something about Reimer
He does not belong up there after less than a season in the NHL.
by whatsinaname on Dec 20, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Another counterpoint
First 24 games of their respective careers:
Erik Karlsson: 1G, 5A, -11
David Rundblad: 1G, 3A, -11
Brian Lee: 1G, 5A, -2
It’s tough to judge career potential based on such small sample sizes.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 1:27 PM EST reply actions
Truthfully, I started to search for defensemen who met that criteria since the lockout
There were so many that I gave up. It’s too much work to make a pithy point that you’ve already made.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Easier just to choose local guys. It’s not really intended to be indicative of any real trend, anyway, just evidence that ‘trends’ are far from rules, so using them to make assertions or projections can’t be looked at as a near-certainty.
And the less realistic the trend, obviously, the less realistic the projection.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Again, points wasn’t the only statistics I used. I mention shots. I mentioned Rundblad’s puck skills. If you think Brian Lee has shown as much in 24 games, I am not sure what to tell you.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Yeah, I would have used other stats if I could pull up Brian Lee’s advanced statistics from his first season and his rookie season. Unfortunately, they’re not available.
But I do think Brian Lee did as much as David Rundblad in his first 24 NHL regular-season games played. He was very strong at the end of the 2008 season, and looked great in the playoffs that year, too.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
Very good point, selective comparison by Adnan. And yet,
we must all agree Rundblad has way more potential offensively than Lee and is way more exciting to watch. There were three Sens players I would pay to watch before the trade: Alfie, Karlsson and Rundblad.
by whatsinaname on Dec 20, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
I think a pairing of Karlsson and Rundblad is fairly inconceivable.
They shoot the same way, which makes it more difficult to quickly fire off passes on the powerplay. They’re also both too offensively oriented to form a successful even-strength pairing.
Also, Karlsson’s stats that were similar to Rundblad’s were put up when he was younger than Rundblad and playing on a team that wasn’t performing as well offensively.
Finally, I think calling Karlsson the best offensive defenseman in the NHL right now is a bit of a bold statement. Statistically speaking — yes. But by the same token, you could say Milan Michalek is the NHL’s best goalscorer.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
It's a bold statement, but I'm not sure if it's unfounded
Maybe ‘right now’ should be replaced with ‘so far this season,’ but I’d say it’s probably fair to say he’s been the best offensive defenceman of the 2011-12 season to date.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I am quite comfortable with saying Erik Karlsson is the best offensive defenceman in the NHL. Can you name one better?
Milan Michalek is leading the league in goals because he has a crazy 21.6% shooting. Erik Karlsson if anything, should have even more points as he has only 2 goals on 109 shots.
On the Karlsson/Rundblad pairing, it is certainly conceivable. Rundblad’s decision making is a bit off but I feel he would have developed chemistry with Karlsson. Though that is just a personal opinion. I don’t agree that a pairing needs to have an offensive guy and a defensive guy. Two dangerous offensive guys can be good too.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Well, an inexplicably low shooting percentage doesn’t mean a player should have more points, necessarily, but it means that they should have more goals. It’s quite possible that some of his assists were from shots he’d taken whose rebounds were put in, so one more goal would result in one less assist and no net effect on his point totals.
I think a Karlsson-Rundblad pairing would be conceivable, but that’s only because I think Rundblad will have to adjust his game to play in the NHL. I think that if he becomes a regular defender, he’ll do so making many fewer risky plays and becoming more of a physical force. He was very physical in the SEL, and once he works on his size and his timing there’s good reason to think he could transfer that to the NHL.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Well everyone would get rebounds in, maybe Karlsson has more rebounds put in because he scores less, fair enough.
But in any case, it’s more likely that he keeps this up than Michalek’s 21.6%.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I think an interesting question is whether Sens fans...
…if they had the opportunity in some kind of fantasy draft, would choose a defenceman other than Karlsson around which to build. How many people here would pick Karlsson? How many would take someone else?
Can I pick Nick Lidstrom 15 years ago?
If I am building a team & have my choice of defensemen in the league to build a team from, assuming I am looking to be competitve right away.
Chara, Weber, Doughty, Keith, Karlsson would be my ranking.
If we’re talking Yahoo! Fantasy League, Karlsson is my first choice w/out PIMs, Chara first choice with PIMs.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
If you're rebuilding though...
…do you want Chara right now today (at 34 years old)?
I guess Doughty would be the other young pick a lot of people would take (aside from Karlsson, I mean), but I’m not even sure I’d pick him.
For a team to be competitive right from the drop of the puck
And I have my choice of defensemen?
Lidstrom/Chara 1st pair D = Domination
For a rebuild,
Weber/Karlsson 1st pair D
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
Erik Karlsson is the greatest hockey player that ever lived
I know this. You know this. Zack Smith knows this. Bobby Orr knows this.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Zack Smith doesn't give a crap
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
also inconceivable
because they play on different teams.
"I couldn't score in a brothel...couldn't finish a sandwich"
- Joe Corvo
Wait... Jared Cown has 10 points in his first 33 games as a rookie
He’s also bigger than Karlsson. Does this mean that he also could wind up being better than Karlsson?
I think it’s obvious we made a mistake. We should have traded Karlsson since both Rundblad and Cowen project out to be better.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
No
Because points itself aren’t as good predictors of future points. Rundblad generates more shots for the team when he’s on the ice. He has better passes, he is better at stickhandling.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Oh
Where do I find the stickhandling and passing stats so I can compare those? ;)
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If you guys fight...
… please don’t hit each other in the head, ok?
by sensory_experience on Dec 20, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think we're fighting
I’m just being playfully obtuse. I think I understand what Adnan’s saying; it’s just a leap of logic that I’m not willing to follow.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I know.
I don’t think I was suggesting you were actually fighting.
Wait… are you being playfully obtuse about my joke too?
by sensory_experience on Dec 20, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Nope
Just making sure everyone knows that we’re not really fighting. I wouldn’t be playfully obtuse with anyone but staff. I’d consider it disrespectful to interact with a reader like that.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
On behalf of at least some readers...
… I’d like to say that I’m pro-playful … obtusion.
by sensory_experience on Dec 20, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Me and Mark duke it out often, but it’s mostly good discussion.
Well…to me anyway. ;)
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
You can find those with your eyes when you see Cowen handle a puck. ;)
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Heh
You mean like this?
That’s already better than Chris Kelly!
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Can’t watch videos at work. :(
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
“Watching the game” as evidence to a statement is a logical fallacy, isn’t it?
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
It's enough
As much as I disagree with how much we paid to do the trade, I’m not going to talk about it anymore because it doesn’t do anyone any good to dwell in the past… and Rundblad is now the past and we need to live in the “NOW”.
As fans we need to support our new Turris Attraction, and beating this to death is not going to do that.
It is however incredible to see and hear all the passion that Sens fans have… as opposed to where Rundblad went, where hockey rates somewhere between Darts and Water Polo in popularity.
Well I am going on vacation after today, I had to let my thoughts out before it was too late. ;)
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Smith-Regin-Neil
This could be a very strong line. Smith has been quiet the last few games (compared to the tear he went on), but this has potential. Some crash-bang, some speed, some playmaking.
by sensory_experience on Dec 20, 2011 1:40 PM EST reply actions
I think that even if he could be a top pairing defencemen, you can’t have 3 people in the top pairing. And him and Karlsson together seems silly (read: liability), so I feel like we just “Redden/Chara’ed” this years in advance. Did we make the right choice? Who knows… (I think yes, because we addressed needs).
But anyway, the trade is done and there is nothing we can do about it now. Let’s try and make Turris feel at home when he reads this blog :)
Hossa Trade
I think that thing in the pit of my stomach is that this seems somewhat similar to the Hossa trade/Chara leaving – IE, fellow countryman gets traded away from team.
It’s not the same in that it’s a better move for Rundblad and it wasn’t literally the day after Rundblad had been signed, but it was quite a shock… and though I’m warming to Turris something just doesn’t quite sit right in my stomach.
I sincerely hope I’m in the wrong.
I don’t think Karlsson is annoyed enough as Chara was when Hossa left.
So I don’t think Karlsson will leave one day.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Hossa didn't leave
He was fucking jobbed. I’m still angry about that day.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Sorry I meant to say Chara left because he was upset Hossa being traded.
That’s the rumour I’ve heard anyway.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
He left because HOW Hossa was traded
Apparently he said there is no way he is going to sign an extension after that.
The truth to Chara is that we could not offer him 7.5M per year and Captaincy. The argument that we should have taken him over Redden is invalid IMHO, because we never had a choice.
Although yes, Hossa was treated very badly, while I think Karlsson is a golden boy here, he feels comfortable if not loved by fans and media, so no reason he would go sour over hockey trade when there are other Swedes in the system and on roster..
Besides, Turris is Canadian and common belief is that Canadians do not flee to KHL and wear their hearts on their sleeves every shift. Let’s be happy for Turris and stay positive.
I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.
But we have no way of knowing that's what happened
Presumably we couldn’t pay both him and Redden. That’s the only fact we really know.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
If I recall correctly
The speculation was they would each be offered $6.0m/yr identical deals. Redden got 6.5 because Chara left. They would have needed to agree to it, but if either wanted more, they couldn’t afford both.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
That's my recollection as well
Chara wanted more, and Boston gave it to him.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I don't think Chara ever got an offer
Nor did he want one. He had already made up his mind he was leaving.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
Sadly, that's something we'll never know
I’m skeptical that the team wouldn’t even bother to make an offer to that kind of player, though.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I remember reading an article about it about a year after Chara left
I remember reading it well, because I was so upset about it. I wish I had kept the link. However, as I can’t remember even where I read it, I can’t remember the source of the article either, meaning it is entirely possible it was DonniB or BooBoo who wrote it, and thus wouldn’t mean anything.
Therefore, it is purely speculative, but I do recall that being reported on well after the fact.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
Found it
http://www.thesensforum.com/senators-talk/4958-so-its-mucklers-fault-chara-didnt-stay.html
Mark Ingram-OROY
Cam Jordan-DROY
New Orleans Saints-2012 Super Bowl Champs
TOP IS GAWD!
I don't think Karlsson will leave either
Just that the trade doesn’t quite feel right. Again, hopefully I’m wrong.
Also Karlsson seems to be taking the news well and I hope our special little guy has a good game tonight.
This article helped further my theory that the Corsi rating is very close to useless...
Rundblad was the worst defenceman ottawa had this year (i’m not talking in terms of potential, but in terms of play this season). He was a huge defensive liability and generated little offense either….and yet has the third highest Corsi rating. Perhaps its because it measures performance in a somewhat irrelevant way. Ten shots against dont matter if they are all weak periphery shots with no traffic, versus Rundblad giving up the puck right in front of our net which will result in a goal against 99% of the time.
by alfie4PM on Dec 20, 2011 2:48 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
There is no position that will result in a goal 99% of the time, but I am assuming you are just being hyperbolic.
Corsi measures possession. Rundblad has a lot of possession and the glaring turnovers will decrease in time. A lot of that is just him being ambitious and young and not making the correct read yet.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
That was hyperbole yes….and I’m not talking about potential, I’m talking about right now. If Corsi measures possession, and so Rundblad was third on the team in terms of improving possession, I would then argue that either possession doesnt matter, or it doesnt measure it very well; since from what I saw when Rundblad was on the ice, the Senators were worse off than when another defenseman was.
The Senators had a lot of possession when Rundblad had the puck. You just can’t consistently outshoot someone that much without having the puck.
It just seems that way because there were a lot of goals with Rundblad on the ice.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
but thats my point….who cares about possession if goals dont result from them? (or the other team scores with less possession?)
The corsi rating is misleading because based on it, one would conclude that Rundblad is having a far more positive effect on the outcome of games for the senators than is actually the reality.
It’s not really misleading. Generally having more shots on your net than you allow is a good thing. They haven’t resulted in goals yet, but over the long run they are more likely to.
Rundblad hasn’t had a positive impact (though I question how bad you think he has been) because while he has had a lot of possession and generated chances, he seems indecisive.
His possession skills won’t deteriorate over time, but his decision making will.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
While putting the puck on net is never a bad thing
There is most certainly something to be said for quality of shots.
I would put a much higher weighting on Corsi if it measured scoring chances vs shots for/against.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I think everyone tries to get into scoring positions. It’s not like one team says our strategy is we will float it in from the boards, while others go only from the slot.
If anything, Rundblad is less likely to just float it in, he often tries for a fancy play. And he tries to sets up teammates in such a manner too.
I do agree though, scoring chances are certainly more valid than simply shots attempted.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I think I know what you meant, but reading what you said
I’m glad Rundblad is gone if he’s indecisive now and his decision making is going to deteriorate over time…
Well, but goals generally don't result from anything other than possession
So you have to at least consider it a starting point.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Sure its a starting point, but I’m not sure how seriously I would consider it as a stat when evaluating how important a player is to a team.
Well, to have a shot on target, shot missed, or even attempted shot blocked, you generally have to be in the offensive zone.
Don’t you think combining all that and finds a good approximation for net offensive/defensive zone time? Which would be pretty important in judging a player’s contribution.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
In theory I agree with you, but as havey03 points out…a lot of it has to do with quality, not just quantity. Most of Rundblad’s offensive contributions were of the poor quality variety, whereas he often gave opponents good quality chances against us. This was not reflected in his Corsi, thus resulting in his Corsi giving a flawed impression of his impact on the game.
What about the $ side of things?
Karlsson is going to command a pretty decent raise. If you believe that Rundblad could become better than Karlsson, he’ll want more money. Cowen projects to be a top-pairing guy no problem, so there’s even more money. Keeping those three, we are tieing a huge amount of money up on our back end in the next few years. Maybe Murray wanted to even things out a bit, spend more money on the top 6 and a bit less on the back end.
Personally I like the trade. If management’s plan is Karlsson-Cowen as the top pairing, there are better options out there for a number 3 guy, rather than playing and paying a top 2 guy to play on the second pairing.
If Rundblad becomes good enough to demand top dollar and we can’t afford him, then we could trade him for a lot more than we got now.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Moot
If Rundblad becomes good enough to demand top dollar and we can’t afford him, then we could trade him for a lot more than we got now.
He’s gone. Only time will tell if it was the right move or not.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I screwed up the block quote... my bad
probably didn’t even need it anyways…
need more practice… need more practice… need more practice…
SMH
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I know he is gone, I was just answering Smiles in what happens in the case he stayed and if all 3 demanded top dollar.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Also a big risk losing him to FA
And getting a lot more for him then as compared to now is debatable.
Not really
He’s still an RFA for quite a while, so we’d either sign him for a good contract or receive the massive compensation associated with a massive offer sheet.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 20, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
But what if, after two more seasons, he still performs the same?
We could have gotten a lot more for Brian Lee shortly after he was drafted than we could get for him now.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
Kyle Turris still hasn’t become “made it” from his draft year, and he was still worth a lot.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
For one, I agree with Adnan
Although it’s a fair point that there’s no hard data to support it. Rundblad’s given everyone every reason to think that he might well become a stud defenceman. His performance this year was exactly what we should have expected: weird, messy, annoying, and occasionally awesome – just like with Karlsson.
You can’t trade those guys away, much less pay over the odds for him. Having an excellent Rundblad on the 2nd pp unit, or running the transition and offense on the 2nd pairing against non-elite opposition, wouldn’t be a waste – it would be amazing. A reasonable-projection Rundblad would be of similar quality to a reasonable-projection Turris, but would play more minutes and in a more important position.
That said, I am jazzed about Turris. We haven’t had a truly exciting forward prospect since…Spezza?
Here's my question
What exactly has Rundblad done to give everyone every reason to think that he might well become a stud defenseman? I definitely don’t feel that way.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
SEL performance last year, being named a top NHL prospect/Calder favourite during the off-season, etc.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
Well, okay
But I think I demonstrated (to my own satisfaction, anyway) that his SEL performance was overhyped, and he’s not a Calder favorite now. That doesn’t leave much.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Well, that standard's actually a low one
Which is why drafting is so tough. I’m pretty much going on the strength of his SEL experience (which I know is debated). That, and then he came to his first camp and got placed in a standard tough situation, in and out of the lineup on an erratic team. His play here was inconsistent and average, but he was placed in a brutal situation and played ok-ish: new ice, new team, lots of mistakes, then played hesitant.
But that sort of thing should be fixed as the game slows down. They are sort of normal sorts of problems. His skating checks out. He’s big enough. He’s got vision, puck skills, and passing (when not panicking). So take away the to-be-expected panicking and that seems pretty great to me.
I’d agree that the SEL can be waved away. But so can the OHL, AHL, etc, which is why 1st rounders fail all the time. All that’s left is his record, which is as good as can be expected, and projecting out a package.
I don't know if he was placed in a "brutal situation"
He played mostly sheltered minutes, specifically because MacLean didn’t trust him. I’m sure that he’s going to develop into a good offensive defenseman, I’m just don’t think there’s anything out there yet to convince us he’s going to be a stud.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Hmm...yeah, fair enough
That’s a fair point about the sheltered minutes. And I wouldn’t have trusted him either :) But do you really think he was placed to impress us? New team, new ice, in and out of the lineup, different partners, no routine at all, etc. etc. His barely surviving is par for the course, no?
I guess I really just have no idea why they thought he’d be ready without a long stint in the AHL. Starting him there, and maybe bringing him up for the last 10-20 games would have made lot of sense.
No, I don't think I was placed to impress us
I think I was the one saying that I expected him to have a tough transition and our expectations were too high based on Karlsson’s own rookie year, if I remember right.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Lines for tonight
I know this is a bit off topic but on TSN the second line was said to be Foligno-Turris-Regin… did they make a mistake or is that the actual line?
Not sure but on TSN Ice Chips here they also say Condra, Turris and Foligno.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Either way, MacLean is going to play what works, not what he submits at the start of the game
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Yeah I expect it to change. When asked why he put him with Condra, MacLean said “Well…I had to put him with someone.”
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I'm really expecting Greening and Foligno to be his linemates once Michalek gets back
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I was watching the Ice Chips Video so maybe the reporter just got mixed up…
by RettStuff1281 on Dec 20, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Butler
Butler had more points in 22 games than Turris had all year-or very close to it. But instead of trying to work with the scorer you have you try again (Filatov) to creat a good player from an old resume and no recent success, this time though-you trade away an asset that may come back to haunt the franchise. I respect that people are upset with the trade but I am amazed nobody has Butler’s back…basically a rookie with huge potential and has proven to be able to get it done when he is paired up with an excellent passer. He was injured-came back and beat Calgary by himself with one of the nicest Ottawa goals all year. Yes – he has slumped but they are not givnig him a chance to rebound and young guys especially, need chances to work through slumps-young scorers are rare and they deserve more of a chance. i just don’t get it…
I argue Filatov should have been given a longer look, so I also agree Butler should be playing and given a chance to get it going.
He has been given a slightly longer look than Filatov though.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
This is how Senators success is being forged
Despite their superior skill levels both Filitov and Butler were legitimately beat out by guys who forged higher compete levels in the off season. BM and PM are correct to set the bar high, that’s what is required to get this team back to the top of the league.
As in life the recipe is deceptively simple, PREPARATION + OPPORTUNITY = SUCCESS. It is doubly so in hockey because a team with elite preparation both exploits and creates opportunities. Preparing for team success is achieved at practice. Preparing for individual success is achieved in the off season.
The fact that we have so many determined guys with such high compete levels that skilled players get pushed down and even off the roster bodes well for our future. When our skilled guys join them in the dogged pursuit of dominant strength, speed and conditioning the Senators will set this league on fire!
lol
That came off a little preachy but I stand by it.
by anothersensfan on Dec 21, 2011 7:30 AM EST up reply actions
Hero - Zero Rating
For the best measure of Rundblad versus Karlsson, consider the excellent ratings done by our observant writers here on this blog. Karlsson is plus 6, Rundblad is plus 2. Other D-men: Carkner plus 1, Cowen plus 7, Kuba plus 2, Philips plus 5. Lee has never been named as either a hero or zero.
Interesting…
We’re usually a lot more generous in heroing than in zeroing, though, to be fair.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 21, 2011 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Just wondering
The general consensus im getting here is that we overpaid for turris. could someone here clarify who would be worth the price paid for turris? it seems like if you want someone proven, like say tyler seguin, john tavares, matt duschene, or ryan nugent hopkins, than you would have to give up ALOT more than rundblad and a second. Who is another youngish centre with high potential ottawa could have gotten for a similar price? schenn? stepan? oshie? hodgson? etem?
I can't speak for anyone else, but my feeling is that since they're both unproven, a player for player swap would have been even
Throwing in a second seems like too much. But because Turris’ perceived ceiling is higher and there were other bidders, that’s what we had to pay.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
If that is the case, it seems like a bit of overreaction to have to the loss of a 2nd round pick, which has like a 25% chance of ever appearing in the NHL.
I watched Turris’ career highlights, and wow does this kid have a shot.
http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlp=8474068&fr=false
Lets try looking a this from the other side for a moment
Who here would be happy if BM traded a 3rd overall pick for a 16th? Not to many?
What if the 3rd overall had been mismanaged, struggled ,was now fed up and wanted out? Still want more than a 16th aye.
What about a 16th with upside and a 2nd rounder. Fine. Just do it and lets move on.
The truth is value is subjective. If both sides perceive that they got more than they gave that’s ideal and It makes dealing with Ottawa a more attractive option for other GM’s in the future.
by anothersensfan on Dec 21, 2011 8:16 AM EST up reply actions
And there were Sens fans willing to give up more than the 16th and 2nd rounder to move up in last year's draft
At the end of the day, you’re right. Value is completely subjective. My own feeling is that once guys start playing NHL games, where they were drafted is no longer relevant. At that point, it’s just trivia.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Dec 21, 2011 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
I've mediated and settled a lot of lawsuits, and I've found that usually the best
settlements are those where both sides are okay with it but they each feel they left something on the table. I think this trade is very similar. Murray probably wanted a straight up trade, Rundblad for Turris, but he had to throw in a second rounder because there were other offers. Phoenix (I’ve read) wanted Rundblad and a first, but had to settle for the second.
I think each side ended up with the player they wanted, and the draft pick was what sealed the deal. It will probably take much longer than just this season to figure out who, if anybody “won” the trade.
you're all missing the point
Murray saw this and immediately called PHX. Rumball needs the sun.
"I couldn't score in a brothel...couldn't finish a sandwich"
- Joe Corvo
No offense
But this is probably the worst article I have ever read on this site. And I’ve been coming here for years.
There is so much hyperbole and hypothesis in this article based on such a ridiculous sample size and quite possibly the most useless stat in hockey (Corsi rating….this is hockey…not f#cking Moneyball) to paint an obviously slanted to paint Rundblad into the second coming of Niklas Lidstrom.
Face it, something about Rundblad’s game soured him to Maclean and Murray. Maybe it was the fact that after 24 games, he was still making the same ill-advised pinches, the same mistakes in leaving his assigned players unmarked and was not generating near the amount of offensive chances that is expected of an offensive defenceman.
by The Dutch Treat on Dec 21, 2011 10:00 AM EST reply actions
Ha no offence taken
I disagree that Corsi is the most useless stat, I think it is very valuable, but you are welcome to continue to think so.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Not to be argumentative... but
I’ve made my thoughts on Corsi known above, just wanted to point out that Moneyball was based on a true story… I’m just sayin’…
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
No offense
But this is probably the worst article I have ever read on this site. And I’ve been coming here for years.
This isn’t the best way to try not to offend someone.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 21, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
On the Corsi...
I’m one of those lucky few that had a chance to work within the offices of an NHL team about 8 years ago when I was a wet-behind-the-ears grad. Essentially, I was an on-call statistician for the franchise providing numbers to the assistant GM.
That team’s management (who is still in place) completely dismissed the Corsi rating as an attempt to “numberfy” (their word not mine) the game. Hence my distaste with it. I can go into statistical proof as to why it isn’t a good indicator of a player’s progress because of too many variables dismissed in its calculation, but that’s too much work that I won’t get paid for. : )
by The Dutch Treat on Dec 21, 2011 10:23 AM EST reply actions
Well no offence, you simply having a distaste for Corsi but then not showing me why because you don’t want to do the work, that is not a strong enough argument for me to accept that it is “useless”.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
If you're looking for an example of how misleading Corsi can be here it is.
http://timeonice.com/shots1112.php?gamenumber=20268
Ottawa’s road game in Edmonton. We dominated them and won 5 -2. Only two Oilers had negative corsi while only one Senator had a positive Corsi.
Bottom line, saying that Corsi is better than plain +/- isn’t saying much and as in the example above it cant even do that consistently.
by anothersensfan on Dec 21, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Corsi can't be a standalone measure
It’s a component of a more balanced understanding of the value of a certain player.
If you look at any statistic based on just one game, you will find it misleading. Even points: In the game you mentioned, Daniel Alfredsson didn’t score a point. That’s misleading, too.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 21, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
And yet...
There is a movement afoot even among current NHL teams looking at advanced statistics, including Corsi, in order to provide a more balanced picture of what players can provide their teams.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 21, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
I have to agree with Dutch on this one…Corsi seems to be more a numbers based equation for online bloggers rather than real life statistically based…it personally means very little to me and I have not taken the time to understand it based on its principles alone…I did mention to one present day player that I had read his Corsi number was low and his response was “who the hell is Corsi?”…enough said, seems like over analysis to me.
"who the hell is Corsi?"…
Hahaha, I’ve done that too.
by RogerTheShrubber on Dec 22, 2011 7:13 AM EST up reply actions
Well...
Since I don’t have the time, here is a very good article from Kuklas that explains the pros and cons in using the Corsi rating as a measurement of player analysis. Keep in mind that the Corsi rating was established to evaluate goalies.
http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/psh/comments/an_introduction_to_some_corsi_issues/
The reason I dismiss it is right in one of the paragraphs. Corsi numbers don’t take into account almost 40% of the overall time of a player.
by The Dutch Treat on Dec 21, 2011 11:27 AM EST reply actions
Well it is certainly not the be all and end all. But do you have a better method of evaluating it subjectively?
Also, Corsi can be easily applied to shorthanded situations or power play, althoguh at that point you might only cares about shots attempted for and against and not the net difference.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I prefer using a combination of actual scoring statistics, fenwick numbers and goal rates in even strength, PP and PK situations while also taking into account +/- in conjunction with turnovers assigned.
by The Dutch Treat on Dec 21, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
That is a valid point and this analysis certainly didn’t take all that into account I agree.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
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