Silver Nuggets: How much will Milan Michalek slow down?
Milan Michalek has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season for the Ottawa Senators. After 25 games, he is the third in the NHL in goals with 15, just one behind Phil Kessel and Steven Stamkos. He is on pace for 49 goals, and while no one expects him to keep that up, can he be around the 35 goal mark?
This isn't the first time he's had a great start with Ottawa. Looking at Michalek's first season with Ottawa in 2009-2010, the statistics are remarkably close to this season:
2009-2010: 25 Games, 15 goals, 5 assists, 74 shots, 20.27% shooting, 5 power play goals
2011-2012: 25 games, 15 goals, 6 assists, 74 shots, 20.27% shooting, 4 power play goals
In the first 25 games of 2009-2010, Michalek had three multi-goal games and scored in 11 of the 25 games. In 2011-2012, Michalek has had four multi-goal games and scored in 11 of the 25 games. Michalek did have injuries that year, but he played 19 more games after the 25-game mark in 2009-2010 before getting injured. In those 19 games, Michalek totalled one goal and one assist for two points. It also wasn't due to the team collapsing either, as the Senators went 9-10-0 in those 19 games.
Having said all that, I don't think Michalek will finish with 22 goals like he did that season. Even when he isn't scoring, he seems to be hitting posts or blowing by defenders on partial breakaways. His career shooting percentage coming into this season was 12%, and this year he is shooting at 20.27%. If he falls back to his career shooting percentage for the rest of the season, but continues to get the same number of shots, Michalek will score 35 goals over 82 games this season.
Last game
- Game recap. (Silver Seven, Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra, Defending Big D)
- Stats from NHL.com [Boxscore] [Game summary] [Face-offs] [Play by play] [Ice time]
- Advanced stats from TimeOnIce.com. [Corsi] [Head-to-head] [Zone starts]
- Scoring chances from last night. Rough night for Zack Smith's line, as the Senators were out-chanced 5-0 with Smith on the ice. David Rundblad was also on the ice for four scoring chances against and none for. (The 6th Sens)
- Zenon Konopka had a feeling the Senators did pretty well in road games in which they didn't have to go back home after. The Sun reported it as a 4-1 record before last night's game, though that is not correct. They lost in Detroit on opening night before travelling to Toronto. They also lost in Buffalo before travelling to Toronto in November. New statistic: the Senators are undefeated on the road when they don't have to travel to Ontario after the game. Well, before last night anyway. (Ottawa Sun)
- SenShot asks if Bobby Butler is the new Brandon Bochenski? (SenShot)
- Jason Spezza was giggling away after taking a tour of the Dallas Cowboys stadium and posing with a Tony Romo jersey in the locker room. (Sportsnet)
- Stéphane Da Costa will play his first AHL game tonight against the Manchester Monarchs. He feels he has a lot to work on in his game, including his speed and defensive play. He admits the step from college to second line centre in the NHL might have been too big and that he started to struggle for confidence. (Press & Sun-Bulletin)
- Jakob Silfverberg had five shots, a goal and an assist yesterday, bringing him to six points in his last two games. He now has 22 points in 24 games and is fourth in the Elitserien in points. His decision to stay in Sweden is looking very good now as this will surely give him a lot of confidence for next season. Pierre Dorion is particularly pleased with Silfverberg because he feels the Elitserien is a league where they try to make the "perfect play". That he has been still able to produce highlights Silfverberg's offensive talent. Dorion also likes Silfverberg's defensive play, pointing out that he plays on the penalty kill. (Ottawa Sun, HockeyLigan.se)
- Is Sidney Crosby becoming a "sacred cow". Daniel Kowbell worries Crosby might become untouchable by the opposition. (Windsor Star)
- Everyone's favourite hockey daughter, Paulina Gretzky, is back on twitter. (Yahoo!)
- Derick Brassard's agent, Allan Walsh, ripped the Columbus coach for making Brassard a scapegoat. (Yahoo!)
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Wow, it's crazy how similar his stats are
Hopefully we don’t see the same kind of dropoff. He seems to be doing well in MacLean’s system. Even though it’s inevitable his shooting percentage will drop, I’m not expecting him to put up one goal in the next 19 games. Here’s to hoping!
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I think he might be able to sustain a higher-than-average shooting percentage
Not 20%, but I think he might keep this up a little while longer. It is certainly highly unlikely that he’ll score just one goal in the next twenty games, at any rate.
Yeah, I'm not necessarily assuming he regresses to 12%
After all, if everyone just performed as their statistics said, there’d never be busts or breakouts—yet there are every year.
He seems healthy, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him finish the year at something like 13-14%.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Yeah, the 35 goal projection is if he is at 12% the rest of the year, his overall season percentage would be higher due him having already being 20% for almost a third.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
What does he need to shoot for the rest of the year to hit 40?
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If he doesn’t get injured, he’s on pace to get 169 more shots in remaining 57 games. If he shoots at 14.8% on those 169 shots, he’ll score 25 more goals for a total of 40 goals.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Blargh
That’s too much to ask for. But it’s not too much to hope for!
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Thank you Heatley!
I say 40+ goals. Because when Murray made that trade I told my brother-in-law that the Sens got the better of the deal, and he laughed! Well who’s laughing now, huh?! WELL?!
by Pmoron on Dec 2, 2011 1:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions
He will do better than his 1st year here
because the ghost of Heatley is mostly gone and the expectations of the team are different and less stressful.
I think he's just a good fit in MacLean's system
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Dude's so freakin' fast
Having guys like Karlsson and Rundblad capable of setting him up with sweet split-the-defence passes doesn’t hurt his chances.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 2, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
"Everyone's favourite hockey daughter, Paulina Gretzky, is back on twitter"
Aaaaaaaaaand gone again
Oh ha. I should really read stuff I link more carefully. Unless it happened after.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Silfverberg
I’ve never seen the guy play, but I am getting downright giddy for him to come over next year. He’s going to have an excellent shot at playing wing on one of the top two lines.
His competition is Foligno, Filatov, Greening and Butler so far. If Alfie plays the final year, he might be a third line player next year.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
He's a surprisingly solid player
I’m not sure if he’ll be more Magnus Arvedson or Daniel Alfredsson, but I’m almost positive he’ll find some level of success in the NHL.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 2, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
Very anxious to see Jakob play as well, especially
when BM talked about convincing Jakob to try make the team out of TC. It’s like he’s saying “There’s no hurry: I know I can make it in the NHL, but let me stay with my mom one more year and enjoy her meatballs: They are to die for.” Too much stereotyping?
I wish he had stayed
But honestly, I’d rather have him come in next year and play with confidence than watch him get overwhelmed like Da Costa did.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Yep. His wish to stay in the SEL one more year
sounded to me more like he wasn’t sure about himself. It’s almost like postponing having to prove the Sens right about him.
It sounded that way to me too
Who knows what his reasons really were, but if it’s what made him comfortable, and the team was okay with it, I’m 100% behind it.
Which is easier to do when it’s paying dividends.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I don't mind it
He’ll still develop well there. When he gets here, he’ll be that much better. Realistically, looking at the roster right now, I’m not sure where he’d fit. Plus with him here, we wouldn’t have had the opportunity to see Daugavins’ play, or to see what Filatov can do.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 3, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
For sure
I mean, he IS developing well over there. Mostly I just wish he stayed so I could watch him play.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Mmmm... Swedish meatballs...
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
Are we allowed to hang out with you during games?
I mean, like, next to Alfie, you are my hero.
Chris Neil update
From Sylvain St-Laurent
Chris Neil: Je suis prêt à jouer. La balle est maintenant dans le camp de l’entraîneur.
Which I think roughly means he is ready to play and the ball is in MacLean’s court.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
So everyone agree Konopka is scratched then? Keep Daugavins-Smith-Condra for now and do Neil-Winchester-Butler.
Alternatively, could do Neil-Konopka-Butler or scratch Condra and put Neil on 3rd line?
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I can think of one person who won't agree
Maybe 2, if you want to count Konopka himself.
by B_T on Dec 2, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
You might want to make it three
I think if you’re going to put Neil on that line, Butler is the one you scratch.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
We're going to have to revoke your anti-Konopka bias club membership card now
by B_T on Dec 2, 2011 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
I think Butler's played well as of late
Better than Daugavins offensively, but Daugavins has really helped the PK, so I think Daugavins has to stay.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
I think he's played well recently too
But I think I’d rather give his eight minutes or whatever to Neil at this point in their careers. Neil might not contribute on the scoresheet, but I think he needs ice time.
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I doubt Condra will be scratched
He’s too valuable to the penalty kill.
There will likely be a rotating cycle of Konopka, Winchester, and Butler sitting out, and it will likely be mostly Konopka. Then there’s the possibility of underperforming players; potential candidates include Greening.
Long-term, I think one of Filatov or Daugavins will probably be sent back to the AHL pending future injuries.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 2, 2011 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
Tough call
They’ve got to play Neil. He means too much to the team. And fourth line minutes aren’t going to cut it. They’ve got to scratch Konopka and demote Condra.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
The new NHL
If Michalek was playing his game, as it stands, in the 80’s – he could be on pace to score 50 and come out at 125 points.I dont know who I could compare him to from that emerging era of the power forward, but, it seemed as though every team had a 50 goal scorer and someone with 100 points. Even the worst teams has some people that were that good. Remember Rick Kehoe – and his linemates? In the past 25 years, the pack has managed to catch up with the leaders. Everyone is that much faster. I would be happy if Michalek finished the year with 30 goals and 75 points. Anything more than that would be a testament to his integrity, and his sense of self preservation. If he twists his ankle digging in the corner and misses 6 games – then thats one thing. My concern is that he falls victim to a low budget hit – League approved. I hate it. I hate that a big hit is as good as a goal. I miss the end to end excitement and carefree inhibition that once truly showcased the sport. There were tough huys, and were fights, but no one had to worry about being compromised. Michalek has the potential to produce on a fantastic level – but think the main obstacle is that he could wind up being spoon fed; without consequence. I think the game has changed a lot. Could he score 50-50 goals – you can only imagine how many players could. But, I think ever since Lindros became fair game, the “Bertuzzi” incident, Crosby… There is money to be made letting it all go – the quality of the product has diminished – but there is money to be made. Bettman is the reason Michalek won’t bag 50. He is responsible for the product, and all of its composite elements.
I don't know about all of that...
… but the last statement, that “the quality of the product has diminished” I would have to disagree with.
Plus, I think advancement in goalie technique and equipment contributed more the drop in scoring since the 80s, not the fear of “dirty” hits.
Michalek can't get 30 goals and 75 points
His goals seem to always outnumber his assists.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
I don't think you can put the blame on Bettman
A huge number of trends have factored into the big hits today, including bigger, faster players who are impeccable physical specimens, gigantic equipment that makes people think they’re less vulnerable than they are, and significantly more intensity every shift of every game—of which there are more today than there were before.
This isn’t Bettman’s doing. It’s the development of playing hockey as a profession. What the league needs to do is make sure the players don’t get too far ahead of themselves.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 2, 2011 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know, I think Bettman deserves at least some of the blame
The league evolved from a free-flowing up-tempo sport to a clutching, grabbing trapfest of the 90’s under his watch. Even the rules we see today are a far cry from what we saw immediately post-lockout.
Now, some of that is due to the evolution of players and strategies, but I think some of it is also due to a commissioner who has no backbone when it comes to the purity of the sport.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I agree with your disagreement
Nothing better than being proven wrong. So thank you for that. Good for the digestion. Thank you Buddha. Detractors – hammer away. True about the goalies. Remember when they used to just stand there and kick at the puck when it came near them. Hmmmm. Watch guys like Gerry Cheevers. Hard to believe he could stop anything. Less net now, better goaltending – definitely. But, can you agree that the “rest of the game” has caught up with the talent of the “Superstars”? Hits used to be reasonable. Push the guy off the puck – take him out of the play. That was part of the game. I am not trying to be so conservative as to say, they should all carry slapping gloves and be prepared for a duel at dawn, but a lot of what I see now, with regards to hits and general consideration for one another, definitely not acceptable. I would like to see all contact past routine hits, and obstruction – the general 2 mins for a transgression – completely eliminated. The expecations for overall quality of play will improve, as will the game as a whole. Players like Michalek, will be able to deliver.
I'd be inclined to agree with you, actually
I think hockey players are “better” than they were in, say, the 80s; they’re bigger, and they’re much more imposing physically. If you were to throw Michalek (6’2", 215lbs) on the ice in the 80s, he’d freakin’ dominate physically. If you let him bring the composite stick and lightweight equipment he’s using today in the time machine that gets him there, too, then he’d get a hell of a lot of points.
I could also see him netting 75P this season, but I’d be surprised; he’s not much of a passer.
Finally, with all due respect, I’d like to make two suggestions when you’re commenting around these parts:
1. Use the reply function. It is invaluable. You can see a link under every comment; if you’re replying to one, use the “reply” link to maintain order in these threads.
2. Use paragraphs in your comments, as it helps organize your argument and makes it much, much easier for us to read and comprehend.
3. Don’t take disagreement personally—we’re not trying to insult you when we disagreeing with you.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 2, 2011 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the tips
Getting the hang of the reply. Click once to login, find the article and reply specifically. Got it.
Will begin using paragraphs – but it is hard to break up a rant. Haha.
And of course, I would never take any dissagreement as a personal affront. As a Sens fan, I tend to react with my heart, so it is always good to hear the opinions of those fans who know what they are talking about factually and statistically. This blog is so good that way. Thanks all…
You'll fit in just fine
Just remember that nothing here is personal, except our disgust with Adnan over his Rocky denial.
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I DON'T KNOW
I didn’t think you could reach adulthood as a male in North America without watching the Rocky movies.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I'm looking forward to seeing more of your thoughts
Seems like you’re a guy with plenty to say, so you’ll do well here.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 3, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Zenon Konopka had a feeling the Senators did pretty well in road games in which they didn’t have to go back home after. The Sun reported it as a 4-1 record before last night’s game, though that is not correct. They lost in Detroit on opening night before travelling to Toronto. They also lost in Buffalo before travelling to Toronto in November. New statistic: the Senators are undefeated on the road when they don’t have to travel to Ontario after the game. Well, before last night anyway. (Ottawa Sun)
In actual fact what he was referring to is that generally the last game of a road trip the team has been flying out right after the game rather than staying one more night, i.e they left for home right after the Vancouver game and lost to Pitt their next game. The 4-1 record is hard to confirm from the outside unless you know the team’s itinerary and flight schedule.
Clearly if they are playing the next night in Toronto, they did not go to Ottawa before. So they definitely lost at least two games before the Dallas game in situations where they did not have to go home right after.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
If they were going to Toronto then the Toronto game would be the last game of the road trip….anyways the gist was flying home RIGHT AFTER THE GAME so the scenario only applies the last game of a road trip or like I stated in the Vancouver-Ottawa-Pittsburgh situation.
“Home games are okay. It’s just when the party’s coming to an end … maybe we should just keep travelling around” i.e the end of a road trip.
Right but the games BEFORE Toronto were not the last games of the trip. I.e. the games in Detroit and Buffalo, which they both lost.
Those are games on the road when they didn’t have to go home right after the game, since they were travelling to Toronto instead.
I am not sure what you are not following.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Again unless you know the flight schedule or itinerary of the team you will not be able to figure out exactly which 5 games were being referred to as you will not know which ones they flew home right after the game, the reporter in this case would know as he and his colleagues are on the road and fly with the team, I cannot say if Mr Brennan is correct or incorrect in his statement without this insider information save for the one sure example I had being that the club flew home RIGHT AFTER THE GAME in Vancouver and subsequently lost to Pit their next game. So the way to disprove this would be to find out the games where they stayed a night in the visiting city FOLLOWING that nights game then flying home the next day to likely see the 4-1 record…good luck with that, you are a numbers guy I am sure you have your sources.
This is a pointless argument
1) Stop.
2) Please take the time to use the reply option to keep discussions in the same track.
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