Where is this Glut of Defencemen?

by Marvellous on Dec 2, 2011 7:48 AM EST

I noticed two things in the paper this morning. We are 29th in the league in GA and 5th from the bottom in GA in the AHL. On top of that, our strength is "supposed to be" our tremendous depth on defence.

When we were contenders, we were solid defensively. Say what you want about Jacques Martin, but he delivered that from forwards and from dmen. Defence was not only valued but insisted upon or you didn't play.

Now, we deemed alot of the players who were solid defensively, among them Kelly and Volchenkov as too expensive, expendable and replaceable. We drafted "puck-moving" dman (the new buzz-word).

Now we need to reevaluate and include some "puck-stopping" dmen to shut down the other team? Our inability to defend has cost us alot of games. And yes, we have several new dmen in the fold and they are learning.

Our weakness, according to all the experts was supposed to be scoring goals. We're 5th in the Eastern Conference in GF. If we could defend better, we'd be up there with the best teams.

Karlsson for one has improved defensively. However, collectively, having more GA than GF is a recipe for disaster in any league. The kind of style we play requires an all star goalie with a .930 save percentage because he is often by himself while the fourth forward is up with the forwards. That is an oversimplified analysis for sure, but the point here is what exactly are we building and specifically what are we building defensively with all of these offensive-minded dmen?

The plan for next year looks like it will be to shore up the second line center position by adding more depth to the offence. With the best part of our defensive dman in the twilight of their careers, where will that leave us?

I say our biggest need is to draft or trade for a young Chris Phillips clone, and that our biggest need for improvement is in the GA department. The forwards we have in the organization will be knocking at the door next year. Silfverberg, Z'jad, Stone and company will be trying to break the door down, so we will have plenty of offence. And at the same time, I am thrilled with the development of some of our NHL forwards... ZSmith, Greening, Daugavins and Michalek in particular.

We do have alot of dmen in the organization, but the mix of types of dmen is REALLY lacking. Rundblad will probably get better defensively, but he is an offensive-minded dman. Cowen will get better defensively and he is developing well. Phillips and Gonchar and Kuba will need to be replaced, and that is what I am talking about here. Even though we have some really good ones, I don't see this glut of dmen that we are supposed to have.

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What about some of our other prospects?

Gryba, Wiercioch (sp?; not that I’m trying), and the like? Once Kuba, and later Gonchar, are gone, that makes room for some of them, and that might help the team out. With both Karlsson and Rundblad developing and excelling, Kuba and Gonchar become superfluous. Also, Lee has moulded himself into a defensive defenseman, which should help; and he’s an RFA, so he’ll be around for at least one more season after this, most likely.

The Marginal Virtues

by JonathanA on Dec 2, 2011 8:49 AM EST reply actions

Do we have the right kind of depth?

Yes, Gryba, Wiercoch and BoroCop are decent prospects, but they don’t look like they are going to be top minute guys, and if they are having trouble getting it done at the AHL level, are they really close to being ready for prime time in the NHL where any mistake ends up in your net?

And Lee looks like a #6 or #7 guy if we keep him. And the three guys mentioned above also look like candidates for the #6 or #7 position.

I realize that we have some depth. I’m just questioning whether it’s the right kind of depth and I don’t see enough defensive prowess in the pipeline to fix the GA problem.

by Marvellous on Dec 2, 2011 9:00 AM EST reply actions

Well, I don't know.

I think that one or two of Borowiecki, Wiercoch or Gryba are likely to develop into at least bottom-four defensive-style d-men, and Cowen, eventually, into a top-pair shut-down guy. They may be struggling now in the AHL, but don’t forget that most of them were involved in the Bingo Cup run, and in any case development isn’t progressive; we’re going to see players take steps back before improving.

Besides, what do you think the Senators are going to do about this now? Since they’re rebuilding, the best means to fill the pipeline is to draft guys, but that is a long-term solution – in fact, the best solution. Trading for someone like Volchenkov (say) would be costly both in terms of what it would take in players, prospects, and picks going the other way, and in terms of cap hit – remember the Sens are going to have to re-sign guys like Spezza, Rundblad, Cowen, and Karlsson in a few years.

The Marginal Virtues

by JonathanA on Dec 2, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

This again?

You already ground this particular axe less than a month ago.

by B_T on Dec 2, 2011 9:48 AM EST reply actions

The point was made a while ago that we had had some bad games early and this would average out over time. It has averaged out and I thought I`d add a possible solution.

by Marvellous on Dec 2, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

Fair enough

I don’t really agree with you, but I can accept that as a reason to bring it up again.

by B_T on Dec 2, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

We don't need .930 save %

Anderson has an .890 save %

Even if we had .905 save % (which is still below average), we’d be much better.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 2, 2011 10:07 AM EST reply actions

I agree Adnan

our glaring weakness this year has been Anderson…plain and simple. He’s let in, I’d guess, 20 ‘shoulda-had ’ems’ this year. Cut that in half even and we’d have 2 or 3 more wins not to mention better #‘s. I’ve been unimpressed with him all year, minus 2 or 3 games.

"I couldn't score in a brothel...couldn't finish a sandwich"
- Joe Corvo

by MadCash on Dec 2, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

If anything

the team’s defensive play is the reason the Sens haven’t been “Avalanched” yet.

The Marginal Virtues

by JonathanA on Dec 2, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry that our prospects aren't developing fast enough for you?

I don’t know what else to say.

If your expectations are that Gryba, BoroCop, and Weircioch, or any other prospect are ready to replace guys like Phillips, Gonchar, or Kuba at the drop of the hat, then you’re going to be continually disappointed. Players need time to develop. Karlsson is light years ahead of where he was three years ago, and Cowen was not ready to play in the NHL before this year as you yourself pointed out more than once.

We already have our top three guys for the future: Karlsson, Rundblad, and Cowen. And you want to find three more top minute guys? We don’t have that need, and there’s no NHL team with that kind of depth on defense. More importantly, seeing how Cowen turned out despite your evaluation of him, you’re probably throwing in the towel on our other prospects too early.

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by Mark Parisi on Dec 2, 2011 1:43 PM EST reply actions

The projection of our prospects

This is how i see the prospects developing, tell me if you see different
Karlson-offensive, pp quarterback
Rublad-offensive, better defensive than karlson other pp dman
Cowan-shutdown dman, isee him a lot like Phillips
Gryba-shutdown dman, blocks a lot of shots and throws some big hits (at least in college)
Wierchoch-balanced, 6’4’ but has lots of assists in AHL and college
Borocop-balanced-responsible but can make good passes to put teammates in a good position

To me this is a balanced defense that doesnt have a lot of weaknesses. Opinions?

by fan of the 2020 cup champs...senators on Dec 2, 2011 10:18 PM EST reply actions

I think it's overly optimistic to assume that every prospect we have will pan out

I mean, I hope they do, but there are a lot more Campolis and Picards in the league than there are Karlssons.

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by Mark Parisi on Dec 2, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions

I have higher hopes for Cowen than Phillips

I would be a bit disappointed if he can’t develop more of an offensive game.
Ideally, all three of Karlsson, Rundblad and Cowen become all round defencemen.

I would be happy if one out of Gryba, Wiercioch or Borowiecki worked out.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 2, 2011 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

Cowen might be like Chara...

I mean Chara didn’t realize his offensive gifts (or defensive skills for that matter) till he came to Ottawa and kaboom!!!! It might be as simple as telling him to shoot and attack more. If life can be as simple as that……

by whatsinaname on Dec 2, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

One thing to consider is that the better defensive D men tend to be more experienced, probably older and UFA age. Waiting for guys to develop defensively may take awhile, unless you get a guy, probably with a top-half first, who’s one of the best defensively in his class (like Myers).

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I believe in next year.

by red army line on Dec 2, 2011 11:57 PM EST reply actions

Sign a UFA!

Once we decide that we have enough prospects to be competitive again we can bring in some UFA’s if some of our players aren’t working out (ie.lee, Wierchoch etc.). I think a reliable DD might be the easiest piece to find. They’re probably not gonna be a top 4 pairing, but a solid 5th or 6th guy that can kill penalties.

by Eric Cartman on Dec 3, 2011 2:04 PM EST reply actions

I think we'll see that this offseason

Bryan Murray would be wise to bring in a veteran presence to bridge the gap while our prospects develop. He’ll almost have to if he’s able to trade Gonchar, since we’re all but certain that Kuba will walk.

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by Mark Parisi on Dec 3, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, a veteran would be a great addition

What we have is three top level developing dmen in Karlsson, Cowen and Rundblad. Since Karlsson gets such high minutes, as he gets better defensively, we get alot better. Cowen and Rundblad are both getting better. Phillips and Gonchar are what they are… veterans in the twilight that are currently contributing. The rest is wide open.

I expect that one of Wiercoch, BoroCop and Gryba will turn out to be a good NHL dman. My money is on BoroCop. That still leaves room for another #4 guy to be added.

So I’m with Mark, and we should find a veteran (a short two or three year window… so not too costly) to slot in there while everyone develops and sorts themselves out.

Lee I would keep for low cost depth while this all sorts out, unless a package deal can be arranged to make us better both on forward and on D at the same time.

by Marvellous on Dec 5, 2011 8:38 AM EST reply actions

Another character guy would be ideal.

Similar to what Luke Richardson did, or Jason Smith. Short contracts, but good guys to calm down the rookies and be a good locker room presence with Alfie, Spezza and Phillips.

by The Tif on Dec 5, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions