Silver Nuggets: Projecting the Senators' goal totals

by Adnan on Dec 13, 2011 1:00 PM EST in Silver Nuggets

The Ottawa Senators have played 30 games and totalled 88 goals (the 91 in the goals for column in the standings include shootouts) or 2.93 a game, which is definitely higher than many would have predicted. Is this sustainable? For the purpose of this analysis, the goal totals for the rest of the season are projected by assuming that the forwards playing tonight will play the remaining 52 games with the exception of Zenon Konopka who is assumed to be replaced by Bobby Butler after tonight. Sergei Gonchar and Filip Kuba will be assumed to miss five more games and then play the rest of the season with Brian Lee and Matt Carkner the healthy scratches for the remainder of the season. Stéphane Da Costa is assumed to never be called up. Each player's goal total will be calculated as follows:

Season Goals = Current goals + (# of games played for rest of season * shots per game this season * career shooting percentage)

Essentially, this will give players credit for a hot (or poor) start, but assumes they will return to their career shooting percentage the rest of the way. The projections end up as follows:

Forwards
Colin Greening (19 goals), Jason Spezza (30 goals), Milan Michalek (37 goals)
Nick Foligno (19 goals), Peter Regin (6 goals), Daniel Alfredsson (24 goals)
Chris Neil (13 goals), Zack Smith (17 goals), Erik Condra (13 goals)
Kaspars Daugavins (10 goals), Jesse Winchester (5 goals), Bobby Butler (9 goals)
Zenon Konopka (2 goals), Stéphane Da Costa (3 goals)

Defence
Filip Kuba (5 goals), Erik Karlsson (10 goals)
Jared Cowen (5 goals), Sergei Gonchar (9 goals)
Chris Phillips (3 goals), David Rundblad (3 goals)
Brian Lee (0 goals), Matt Carkner (0 goals)

This comes out to a total of 242 goals. If you simply did (88/30)*82, the Senators would project to 241 goals. So maybe I could have skipped all that work above.

Tonight's game

Game preview for tonight. (Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra)
Everyone predicts a loss tonight except Steve Lloyd. Peter went with 3-1 for the Sabres. (Senators Extra)
Zenon Konopka will play tonight with Bobby Butler a healthy scratch. (Ian Mendes)

General Sens News

Bryan Murray doesn't think the gamble on Nikita Filatov is over yet and he hopes Filatov can come back next year. Murray confirmed that he will make a qualifying offer to Filatov in the summer to retain his rights. (Ottawa Sun)
Graeme Nichols posts a transcript of Bryan Murray talking to the media as well as Nichols' own take on the responses. (The 6th Sens)
More on the Filatov departure, this time in French. (Le Support Athlétique)
SenShot asks if Erik Karlsson is being played too much? I don't think so, but even if he is, there's really no one currently healthy that can take his ice time. They also pose the question if Karlsson's success is having the opposition focus on him a bit more. (SenShot)
Bruce Garrioch thinks Ottawa should try to sign Chris Kelly if he makes it to free agency in the summer. Kelly was a good player for us, but I am not sure where he would fit on an Ottawa roster bursting with bottom six players. Plus, playing on a contending team, Kelly is going to end up with inflated offensive numbers that he will never replicate in Ottawa, but he will still get a raise. (Ottawa Sun)
Craig Anderson has a new mask design. (Ottawa Senators)
Anderson will wear the mask tomorrow against Boston. He will only wear it with the heritage jerseys. (Allen Panzeri)
Patrick Wiercioch has been released from hospital and is heading home. (Binghamton Senators)
Did Nick Foligno stomp on Alex Burrows? (Yahoo!)

General Hockey News

Why does hockey tolerate fighting but other violent sports such as rugby or American football do not? One possible explanation could lie in the origin of hockey, where English, Scottish, Irish and French players despised each other in the 19th century. Could ethnic rivalries really explain the culture of fighting in hockey that is still seen today? (New York Times)
It is too bad that Sidney Crosby is out again, but really, the NHL is spiralling into the abyss? (Globe and Mail)
Pat Hickey, a columnist with the Montreal Gazette, thinks that Theoren Fleury 'enabled' Graham James. (Yahoo!)
Lastly, a hockey brawl between 9-year old kids in Kazakhstan. (Yahoo!)

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Comments

Your statistical model is inferior!

But damned if I’d do the work for a proper regression to mean either.

by B_T on Dec 13, 2011 1:19 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, sadly Konopka will play more than 1 game but such is the way!

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 13, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

The accusation of Foligno stomping is ridiculous

Let me outline the number of reasons I am confident that there was no stomp involved:

1. This is the most telling: Burrows didn’t moan about anything happening.
2. Foligno is obviously heading to an open spot on the bench.
3. Foligno only raises his leg to jump the boards.
4. Foligno quite obviously has all his weight on his right leg.
5. There was no indication of pressure on Burrows’ leg.

Such a stupid post.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 13, 2011 1:20 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, to me it looks like he raised his leg to jump the boards and changed his mind because he didn't want to trip on Burrows

It’s a non-issue to me.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 13, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed.

I guess with only 1 game in the NHL last night, everyone needed something to yap about… haha.

by Ibanez_Guy on Dec 13, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

#1 pretty much seals it

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 13, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

All-star leaders week 4

Forwards
1. Phil Kessel 464,714
2. Sidney Crosby 404,429
3. Daniel Alfredsson 384,050
4. Jason Spezza 342,184
5. Joffrey Lupul 326,939

Defence
1. Erik Karlsson 421,343
2. Dion Phaneuf 395,082
3. Kris Letang 335,142
4. Nicklas Lidstrom 304,977
5. Zdeno Chara 289,213

Goalies
1. James Reimer 308,025
2. Tim Thomas 295,815
3. Marc-Andre Fleury 290,840
4. Carey Price 172,920
5. Pekka Rinne 131,808
6. Henrik Lundqvist 128,759

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 13, 2011 1:58 PM EST reply actions

No Craig Anderson?!

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 13, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

Almost the same save % as Reimer!

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 13, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

BUT HE'S NOT OPTIMUS REIM.

HE IS …

Wait, do we have a nickname for him yet? Other than Robin Lehner’s target?

by The Tif on Dec 13, 2011 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

As far as I know we’ve been calling him Mr. Anderson in the Agent Smith voice.

Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.
Zack Smith: The future best Senator to ever wear 15.

by Speedy_McEachern on Dec 13, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

Alright. I can dig that.

by The Tif on Dec 13, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

I can't imagine Crosby playing.

Even if he’s feeling 100%, why risk it? Even if it’s not “competitive” he can still trip or be checked badly.

by The Tif on Dec 13, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

If he drops off, maybe Giggles will jump into top 3.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 13, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

I'd rather see Michalek on there than Giggles move up a spot

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 13, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

Michalek is too far back to get in on votes.

He’ll definitely get in though, leading the league in goals and all.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 13, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

Doubtful.

If we have three guys in the ASG, what are the chances the league gives us one more? (assuming Alfie, Spezz and Karlsson all get voted in).

by The Tif on Dec 13, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

If he's among the league leaders at the time of the game, they can't leave him out

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 13, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

The outrage that would ensue would be intolerable

Michalek is tied for the league lead in goal scoring. No way they leave him out. The conspiracy theorists would be out if full force. It would be worse than that one time Foligno got accused of stomping on Burrows leg.

Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.

by havey03 on Dec 13, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah there's no excuse to leave him out...

But I wouldn’t trust them because of the 4 all stars factor. Hopefully they do the right thing though.

Remember in 2006, Canada left it’s leading scorer off its roster for the Olympics.

by Sports Fan! on Dec 13, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

We're a small market.

I think it’s ridiculous, but I wouldn’t count on Michalek and Spezza both being there.

by The Tif on Dec 13, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

I agree.

Seems unlikely. I think if it’s left up to the league (that’s to say if neither is voted in), and if Michalek is still at or near the top of the league in goals when the final selections are made, Michalek, not Spezza, will likely get voted in.

There’s also something to be said about how, you know, league leaders notwithstanding, a 12th-place team simply doesn’t deserve four all-stars.

by dzuunmod on Dec 13, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions

It's possible... Crosby hasn't managed to gain much ground the last week

by Sports Fan! on Dec 13, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

It's just dumb that Reimer is the leading goaltender

The Bruins faithful need to step up their game…as do the Sens fans to make sure Alfie is in there.

Perhaps there can be a motion for Sens fans to vote for TimmyThomas as well?

by OD99 on Dec 13, 2011 3:36 PM EST reply actions

I voted for Tim Thomas.....

It’s embarrassing for the NHL & the Leafs to see Reimer as top goalie vote getter.

by whatsinaname on Dec 13, 2011 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

I was gonna say the same thing.....

Vote TIM THOMAS!!.. Reimer does not deserve and cannot be in that game!

by Eric Cartman on Dec 13, 2011 4:39 PM EST reply actions

Static judglemets are crazy

Regin has played 7 games, shall he play the rest of the season with the same production, it make not 6 goals but 23 goals.
Not that I expect this, but his case is probably either he is healthy or he is finished in the NHL.
So what will his production be, 4 goal and career end or 15 goals and reborn?

by JanMath on Dec 14, 2011 8:31 AM EST reply actions