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Silver Nuggets: Struggling Senators have a tough schedule this week

Jason Spezza is going to be key if the Senators are to have success this week. (Photo by Jana Chytilova/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images)

The Ottawa Senators have lost three games in a row and it's not going to get any easier. Losers of three in a row and five out of the last six, the Senators will head on the road to take on the Buffalo Sabres tomorrow night. The following night, they will return home to play the Boston Bruins on the second of a back-to-back set. The final game of the week is on Friday at home to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The combined record of Ottawa's next three opponents is 50-30-7 or a 101 pace over 82 games. In other words, the average opponent for Ottawa this week is a 101 point team. Ottawa will be expected to lose on the road to Buffalo, and they will be expected to lose at home to Boston and Pittsburgh as well.

Can the Senators surprise and have a successful week? Considering the schedule, a three point week would have to be considered a success. The optimistic prediction would be that Ottawa manages to win one of the home games against the two powerhouses and pulls out a point or two in Buffalo. Losing all three games could leave the Senators being four or five points behind a playoff spot.

Star-divide

General Sens News

  • As you may have heard, Nikita Filatov is heading back to Russia. I think Paul MacLean handled this very poorly, but I am sure others will disagree. (Senators Extra)
  • Bryan Murray feels that Filatov cares a lot and can still be an NHL player but needs to get "stronger". (Steve Llloyd #1, Steve Lloyd #2)
  • Murray also adds that he intends to submit a qualifying offer to Filatov this summer, who will be an RFA. He would need to do that to retain his rights, otherwise Filatov would be a UFA. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
  • Here is the full audio of Bryan Murray speaking about the Filatov's move to Russia. (Senators Extra)
  • Paul MacLean thinks Filatov was given a fair shot and that his attitude was fine. He thought Filatov's play without the puck was pretty good but his play with the puck wasn't. (Steve Lloyd)
  • Binghamton coach Kurt Kleinendorst thinks that Filatov is a good kid and if he wants to play in Russia rather than the AHL, he's behind it. (Joy Lindsay)
  • With the injuries to Sergei Gonchar and Filip Kuba, Jared Cowen has been playing big minutes and not looking overwhelmed. Ken Warren argues that Cowen has been as important as Erik Karlsson this season. I think that's stretching it (a lot) but Cowen has been decent while the others have been awful during the losing streak. (Ottawa Citizen)
  • New lines in practise with Kaspars Daugavins and Colin Greening swapping spots on the first and fourth lines. 1) Greening-Spezza-Michalek, 2) Foligno-Regin-Alfredsson, 3) Condra-Smith-Neil, 4) Daugavins-Winchester-Butler. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
  • The bottom two defensive pairings have also been changed. 1) Cowen-Karlsson, 2) Phillips-Rundblad, 3) Lee-Carkner. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
  • The Senators have lost five of the six games since Filip Kuba went down. He's being missed on even strength and the penalty kill (even a little on the power play). Who would have guessed how important he would be? Can the replacements stop the losing streak before the veterans return? (Ottawa Sun)
  • Jason York also writes about how Filip Kuba and Sergei Gonchar were both booed at the home opener and now both are being sorely missed. (Ottawa Sun)
Poll
How many points will Ottawa gets this week? (@ Buffalo, versus Boston, versus Pittsburgh)
0
21 votes
1
27 votes
2
74 votes
3
51 votes
4
32 votes
5
3 votes
6
20 votes

228 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 43 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Karlsson and Phillips is a bad combo – we’ve seen that in Karlsson’s attitude. I feel bad for Rundblad since if Karlsson struggles with Phillips you know Rundblad will too. Why not try out Rundblad and Lee – see how that goes?

by The Tif on Dec 12, 2011 1:09 PM EST reply actions  

Rundblad and Phillips played well together earlier in the season. Not sure if the chemistry is still there now.

by DW19 on Dec 12, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Did they?

My bad. Hopefully they work well together.

by The Tif on Dec 12, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, I voted for 6. It’s my birthday Sunday and I’d like the Sens to be on a roll when I celebrate!

by The Tif on Dec 12, 2011 1:10 PM EST reply actions  

I would absolutely agree with Cowen being better than Karlsson this week.

I’ve been very frustrated with his play lately. Having said that, I’ve been more frustrated with our veterans. Phillips has been absolutely awful, and Spezza the same.
I’m predicting a win against Buffalo and losses to the Fems and Bruins. It’s really too bad Gonchar and Hurtuba will be out; I was looking forward to seeing the matchups.

by Pmoron on Dec 12, 2011 1:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

I voted 4 purely out of blind optimism

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 12, 2011 1:35 PM EST reply actions  

I voted 6.

MY OPTIMISM COULD BEAT UP YOUR OPTIMISM!

by The Tif on Dec 12, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Sens win all 3 games this week

I will…be happy!

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 12, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I voted 2.

My realism trumps your optimism!

by Pmoron on Dec 12, 2011 2:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I also went for two, and actually felt that was a little optimistic. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Sens lose all three games. Hope I am wrong.

by DW19 on Dec 12, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

If you assume the Senators are huge underdogs in every game (2/1 is pretty big odds for a single hockey game), then there is still a 70% (1 – (2/3)^3 ) chance the Sens win at least one game.

I think 2 points is the most realistic prediction, but I’ll go with 4 anyway for no good reason.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 12, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

That kind of probability calculation relies on the results being unconnected to each other (as in tossing a coin). With a team as streaky as the Sens have been, I don’t think that assumption holds.

by DW19 on Dec 12, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know, if the Sens lose to Buffalo, do you think Boston is more than 67% likely to win? That’s a huge difference for a single one-off game.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 12, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, that is quite possible.

The Senators have not been a “win one, lose one” type of team this year. They have been a “win four, lose five, win four more” type of team.

by DW19 on Dec 12, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I would agree with this.

They’re not independent events as momentum and other “intangibles” make all the difference in sports. It would be a weighted conditional probability, dependant on victory in the previous game, as well as the new opposition and if they were on a winning/losing streak.

by The Tif on Dec 12, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I voted 0

for NAIL YAKUPOV. or at least a decent pick if we’re not gonna make the playoffs…

by Tyler.mv on Dec 13, 2011 9:37 AM EST up reply actions  

I love York for being the only one to point out Kuba and Gonchar

Of course, the assholes that booed them will never admit it now.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 12, 2011 2:05 PM EST reply actions  

Another website?

ARE YOU CHEATING ON SILVER SEVEN?

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 12, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not like that, honest!

It’s not even a hockey website! And it was in the off-topic section!

by B_T on Dec 12, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Is this like Herman Cain not really cheating on his wife but only paying the woman’s rent?

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 12, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

That mask is fucking deadly!

I can’t wait to see it with the heritage jerseys!

by Pmoron on Dec 12, 2011 3:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

THAT IS SO AWESOME

THAT IS THE BEST MASK IN THE HISTORY OF THE OTTAWA SENATORS ORGANIZATION

IT’S EVEN BETTER THAN BARASSO’S

by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 12, 2011 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

IT'S SO AWESOME IT MAKES PEOPLE FORGET HOW TO USE THE CAPSLOCK KEY

THAT’S HOW AWESOME IT IS.

I’M ACTUALLY WHISPERING RIGHT NOW.

by B_T on Dec 12, 2011 8:38 PM EST up reply actions  

sweet scratches...

one thing is certain, the win / lose record for the mask this year is 0:0 hopefully it brings some goodluck and confidence back…

by spezzasbrother on Dec 12, 2011 9:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Pretty straightforward

Seems like Murray feels that strength is limiting his play without the puck.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 12, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Doesn’t this conflict MacLean saying play without the puck is fine, play with the puck is problem?

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 12, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

It definitely does

I’m listening to MacLean’s conference right now and he said that Filatov wasn’t bringing the same offensive dimension that he was displaying in the AHL.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 12, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Filatov could have more than one area that needs improvement. It is not logically inconsistent to suggest that he needs to improve both his strength and his play with the puck.

by DW19 on Dec 12, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

It is inconsistent if the GM says he needs to improve play without the puck and the coach says play without the puck was “pretty good”.

Granted I haven’t heard either interview, just going by what I have read.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 12, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you are parsing things to finely here. Filatov presumably did more or less what MacLean wanted him to away from the puck, thus his description “pretty good”. That doesn’t rule out the possibility that he needs to get stronger to do those things even better (as Murray would like to see).

On the other side of the puck, Murray’s point about him needing to get stronger would help a lot towards what MacLean wants to see, namely, better play with the puck.

I don’t want Murray and MacLean to start rehearsing their remarks in order to sound “consistent”. Maybe my interpretation is wrong, but to me what the two are saying makes sense.

by DW19 on Dec 12, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

That's true

It’s just surprising when the GM says one thing and the coach says another. Murray did also say that he told Filatov if he wants to be a player in the league, he needs to get stronger, and implied that his skill would come through more easily with added strength.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 12, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions  

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