Silver Nuggets: Struggling Senators have a tough schedule this week
The Ottawa Senators have lost three games in a row and it's not going to get any easier. Losers of three in a row and five out of the last six, the Senators will head on the road to take on the Buffalo Sabres tomorrow night. The following night, they will return home to play the Boston Bruins on the second of a back-to-back set. The final game of the week is on Friday at home to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The combined record of Ottawa's next three opponents is 50-30-7 or a 101 pace over 82 games. In other words, the average opponent for Ottawa this week is a 101 point team. Ottawa will be expected to lose on the road to Buffalo, and they will be expected to lose at home to Boston and Pittsburgh as well.
Can the Senators surprise and have a successful week? Considering the schedule, a three point week would have to be considered a success. The optimistic prediction would be that Ottawa manages to win one of the home games against the two powerhouses and pulls out a point or two in Buffalo. Losing all three games could leave the Senators being four or five points behind a playoff spot.
General Sens News
- As you may have heard, Nikita Filatov is heading back to Russia. I think Paul MacLean handled this very poorly, but I am sure others will disagree. (Senators Extra)
- Bryan Murray feels that Filatov cares a lot and can still be an NHL player but needs to get "stronger". (Steve Llloyd #1, Steve Lloyd #2)
- Murray also adds that he intends to submit a qualifying offer to Filatov this summer, who will be an RFA. He would need to do that to retain his rights, otherwise Filatov would be a UFA. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
- Here is the full audio of Bryan Murray speaking about the Filatov's move to Russia. (Senators Extra)
- Paul MacLean thinks Filatov was given a fair shot and that his attitude was fine. He thought Filatov's play without the puck was pretty good but his play with the puck wasn't. (Steve Lloyd)
- Binghamton coach Kurt Kleinendorst thinks that Filatov is a good kid and if he wants to play in Russia rather than the AHL, he's behind it. (Joy Lindsay)
- With the injuries to Sergei Gonchar and Filip Kuba, Jared Cowen has been playing big minutes and not looking overwhelmed. Ken Warren argues that Cowen has been as important as Erik Karlsson this season. I think that's stretching it (a lot) but Cowen has been decent while the others have been awful during the losing streak. (Ottawa Citizen)
- New lines in practise with Kaspars Daugavins and Colin Greening swapping spots on the first and fourth lines. 1) Greening-Spezza-Michalek, 2) Foligno-Regin-Alfredsson, 3) Condra-Smith-Neil, 4) Daugavins-Winchester-Butler. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
- The bottom two defensive pairings have also been changed. 1) Cowen-Karlsson, 2) Phillips-Rundblad, 3) Lee-Carkner. (Sylvain St-Laurent)
- The Senators have lost five of the six games since Filip Kuba went down. He's being missed on even strength and the penalty kill (even a little on the power play). Who would have guessed how important he would be? Can the replacements stop the losing streak before the veterans return? (Ottawa Sun)
- Jason York also writes about how Filip Kuba and Sergei Gonchar were both booed at the home opener and now both are being sorely missed. (Ottawa Sun)
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Karlsson and Phillips is a bad combo – we’ve seen that in Karlsson’s attitude. I feel bad for Rundblad since if Karlsson struggles with Phillips you know Rundblad will too. Why not try out Rundblad and Lee – see how that goes?
I would absolutely agree with Cowen being better than Karlsson this week.
I’ve been very frustrated with his play lately. Having said that, I’ve been more frustrated with our veterans. Phillips has been absolutely awful, and Spezza the same.
I’m predicting a win against Buffalo and losses to the Fems and Bruins. It’s really too bad Gonchar and Hurtuba will be out; I was looking forward to seeing the matchups.
by Pmoron on Dec 12, 2011 1:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I voted 4 purely out of blind optimism
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
If the Sens win all 3 games this week
I will…be happy!
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I voted 2.
My realism trumps your optimism!
by Pmoron on Dec 12, 2011 2:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I also went for two, and actually felt that was a little optimistic. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Sens lose all three games. Hope I am wrong.
If you assume the Senators are huge underdogs in every game (2/1 is pretty big odds for a single hockey game), then there is still a 70% (1 – (2/3)^3 ) chance the Sens win at least one game.
I think 2 points is the most realistic prediction, but I’ll go with 4 anyway for no good reason.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
That kind of probability calculation relies on the results being unconnected to each other (as in tossing a coin). With a team as streaky as the Sens have been, I don’t think that assumption holds.
I don’t know, if the Sens lose to Buffalo, do you think Boston is more than 67% likely to win? That’s a huge difference for a single one-off game.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Yes, that is quite possible.
The Senators have not been a “win one, lose one” type of team this year. They have been a “win four, lose five, win four more” type of team.
I would agree with this.
They’re not independent events as momentum and other “intangibles” make all the difference in sports. It would be a weighted conditional probability, dependant on victory in the previous game, as well as the new opposition and if they were on a winning/losing streak.
I voted 0 purely out of blind pessimism
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 12, 2011 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
I refused to vote out of blindingly passionate apathy for the process.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Dec 12, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
I voted 0
for NAIL YAKUPOV. or at least a decent pick if we’re not gonna make the playoffs…
ok just kidding I actually voted 6 because I wanna see the sens win but if they dont
the draft is the silver lining
I love York for being the only one to point out Kuba and Gonchar
Of course, the assholes that booed them will never admit it now.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I was having an argument with someone about Gonchar on another website at the start of the season....
It was ongoing over weeks. It got really quiet by the end of October.
Another website?
ARE YOU CHEATING ON SILVER SEVEN?
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
It's not like that, honest!
It’s not even a hockey website! And it was in the off-topic section!
Is this like Herman Cain not really cheating on his wife but only paying the woman’s rent?
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
Anderson has a new mask
by B_T on Dec 12, 2011 3:13 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
That mask is fucking deadly!
I can’t wait to see it with the heritage jerseys!
by Pmoron on Dec 12, 2011 3:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
THAT IS SO AWESOME
THAT IS THE BEST MASK IN THE HISTORY OF THE OTTAWA SENATORS ORGANIZATION
IT’S EVEN BETTER THAN BARASSO’S
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by Peter Raaymakers on Dec 12, 2011 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
IT'S SO AWESOME IT MAKES PEOPLE FORGET HOW TO USE THE CAPSLOCK KEY
THAT’S HOW AWESOME IT IS.
I’M ACTUALLY WHISPERING RIGHT NOW.
sweet scratches...
one thing is certain, the win / lose record for the mask this year is 0:0 hopefully it brings some goodluck and confidence back…
by spezzasbrother on Dec 12, 2011 9:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Brian Murray speaks to media about Filatov going to KHL
http://video.senators.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=1141&id=141701
Haven’t watched it myself yet, no audio at work.
Pretty straightforward
Seems like Murray feels that strength is limiting his play without the puck.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Doesn’t this conflict MacLean saying play without the puck is fine, play with the puck is problem?
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
It definitely does
I’m listening to MacLean’s conference right now and he said that Filatov wasn’t bringing the same offensive dimension that he was displaying in the AHL.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Filatov could have more than one area that needs improvement. It is not logically inconsistent to suggest that he needs to improve both his strength and his play with the puck.
It is inconsistent if the GM says he needs to improve play without the puck and the coach says play without the puck was “pretty good”.
Granted I haven’t heard either interview, just going by what I have read.
Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan
I think you are parsing things to finely here. Filatov presumably did more or less what MacLean wanted him to away from the puck, thus his description “pretty good”. That doesn’t rule out the possibility that he needs to get stronger to do those things even better (as Murray would like to see).
On the other side of the puck, Murray’s point about him needing to get stronger would help a lot towards what MacLean wants to see, namely, better play with the puck.
I don’t want Murray and MacLean to start rehearsing their remarks in order to sound “consistent”. Maybe my interpretation is wrong, but to me what the two are saying makes sense.
That's true
It’s just surprising when the GM says one thing and the coach says another. Murray did also say that he told Filatov if he wants to be a player in the league, he needs to get stronger, and implied that his skill would come through more easily with added strength.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Article with comments from Murray, MacLean and Spezza
Not sure how much of this is a repeat of what was in the video:

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