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Silver Nuggets: With Boudreau hiring, is Ryan still available?

Old news at this point, but there have been plenty of rumours since the weekend that Anaheim Ducks winger Bobby Ryan was being shopped on the trade market, and--as would be expected--that possibility generated ample interest from around the league.

With the firing of Randy Carlyle and the hiring of Bruce Boudreau in Anaheim, it seems likely that the trade watch around Ryan (a very young, dynamic player with a hell of a lot of potential in this league) has "ground to a halt," in the words of TSN's Bob McKenzie--at least for now. On the other hand, Ryan recently said he "wouldn't be surprised" if he were dealt by the Ducks. Still, it seems likely that any offers have been put on the shelf until Anaheim GM Bob Murray sees how the team responds to a new coach and a markedly new direction. So if a trade were to happen, I'd be surprised if it happened before, say, February.

If one happens, plenty of teams--in fact, likely every team--will express an interest. To no one's surprise, Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke has his team in the running (he's long coveted Ryan's playmaking skills, even though the team needs a centre more than another winger), but the New York Rangers have also reportedly made a strong push. The Senators, desperate for young and talented top-six forwards, would also certainly make an offer.

Ottawa doesn't have much to offer, though. The asking price for Ryan would, naturally, be very high; speculation has been that they're looking for very good defensive help in the short term, as well as ample prospects and/or picks within a package to lure Ryan away. Ottawa has a few pieces that are likely available: Filip Kuba, Brian Lee, Nick Foligno, and Sergei Gonchar being some of them. But even those four would probably not be enough value to bring Ryan to Ottawa; a first-round pick and a good prospect (maybe Patrick Wiercioch, Stéphane Da Costa, or one of the first-round picks from this past draft) would likely have to enter the conversation before anything got very serious.

It won't be cheap to acquire Ryan, even if he is made available. But for a 24-year-old winger on a very reasonable contract with a 71-point season already under his belt, the price might be worth it.

Star-divide

Senators headlines

  • Tonight's game preview. Andrew Raycroft will be starting, since Kari Lehtonen is out with a groin injury. (ESPN, Senators Extra)
  • Tonight's prediction panel features a pretty even split, with four calling a Sens win and three predicting one for the Stars. (Senators Extra)
  • Turns out Nikita Filatov didn't break his nose last game, but stayed out of the lineup because he had headaches and dizziness. He's probably in tonight, Filip Kuba is probably not. (Citizen)
  • Zack Smith: Scoring machine. (Sun, via London Free Press)
  • Chris Neil should be back any day now (although he won't be back tonight). Also, he named his third child "Finley," because he liked the name (or maybe likes the Italian pop/punk band of the same name). (Sun)
  • The B-Sens are such a young and inexperienced team, with so many veterans called up or injured, that coach Kurt Kleinendorst hasn't even given out a extra 'A' to anyone; he wouldn't know who to give it to. (WBNG Sports)
  • Alex Auld gave 80 winter jackets to the Snowsuit Fund, but hopefully retained at least one toque to keep that impeccably bald head warm through the winter. (EMC)

NHL headlines

Finally, a new feature for SensTV: Alex the Jr. Reporter, a complete rip-off of the Chicago Blackhawks' Joey the Jr. Reporter... seriously, so blatant; the intro is a shot-for-shot duplication. Alex looks about six years older than Joey, though, so it's just not the same. Still, a couple of gems, notably Zenon Konopka's assertion that "there's no swearing in hockey."

In contrast, here's a classic Joey the Jr. Reporter video (the Christmas edition! Featuring Marian Hossa, whose strong suit is obviously not comedy):

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I want a Nintendo GS!!!

In other news, my Alfie jersey just arrived.

by Alexander Calloway on Dec 1, 2011 1:47 PM EST reply actions  

I want Nintendo GS too

Friggin’ Hossa.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 1, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Ryan is not going anywhere anytime soon...

…at least not to Ottawa. I bet if he is traded it will be deadline deal, when Ducks are out of playoff picture (if they are), and I have hard time seeing Sens comfortable in trading away Gonch or Kuba since that would leave our defence so badly exposed, that our current league worst 3.42 GAA be quite a pleasant memory.
We could add one NHL ready forward (maybe even Filatov) or Noesen or Puempel and still it would not be enough with next year’s first rounder likely also required in the package. It is insane price to pay and if at that point we were still in the playoff position it would more than likely put that in jeopardy. Ryan is a great player worth a risk a lot of times, but I think Ducks just want to get an offer they can refuse or shake things up a bit in their organization by dangling one of their golden boys in front of the rest of the league. It is a win-win for them.

I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.

by TaBu on Dec 1, 2011 1:49 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, I would love to bag Ryan

But the reality is that we would either be outbid or have to hugely overpay.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 1, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Overpaying worries me.

It’s just not worth it – we’re not a Ryan away from being a championship team. And with all the prospects we have, it would be good to just let them develop together and build chemistry and then if we need it later search for the missing pieces.

Actually, how many times has a late addition actually helped a team in their Cup hunt? I feel like most of the time it hurts the team. Anyone know?

by The Tif on Dec 1, 2011 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Playoffs?

Really, You’d pass on a chance to pickup Bobby Ryan because you think Sens need to keep Kuba and/or Gonch to make playoffs this year??

I would trade Kuba + Filatov + a 1st rounder next year for Ryan. I’m not sure if Sens want go hybrid rebuild though.

The one thing Ottawa has going in its favor on this is that they can absorb more cap $ than other teams.

by Joebo on Dec 1, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Not a chance Anaheim takes that package.

Who would want to trade a three-time thirty-goal scorer for a reclamation project whose potential is so far unfulfilled and a Kuba? The draft pick is the only worthwhile piece in that deal.

by JonathanA on Dec 2, 2011 8:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Tabu brought em up

Yes that would be an absolute coup for Ottawa.

I didn’t say that since I have a private theory that Ottawa fans shoot BM in the foot by being overly critical of our players in social media (i.e. educating potential trade partners). Realistically I know it has no direct impact (what GM is going to be reading up on this site?) but I always wonder if there’s any indirect impact, e.g. if trade rumours are discussed on both team’s blogs, whether our assessments color their impression of potential trade bait.

Anyhow, I’d trade pretty much anyone on the team except Spez and Karlsson for Ryan. Well probably not Michalek straight up since it’d be a wash at this point. But I wonder if Anaheim would be interested in Gonchar + a young F prospect (i’d pimp Filatov and then fall back to one of our prospects excluding Zibanejad and Mark Stone) and a draft pick

by Joebo on Dec 4, 2011 1:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Sure didn't take Boudreau to get a new job

On a marginally more Sens related aspect, Mike Foligno was sent out the door with Carlyle.

by B_T on Dec 1, 2011 2:06 PM EST reply actions  

Alex, Jr. Reporter confuses me

I had a really hard time telling him apart from Brian Lee. He was on the left, wasn’t he?

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 1, 2011 2:34 PM EST reply actions  

So - what do you figure we're looking at for Karlsson?

It scares me to think about it. I’m inclined to think mgmt would want to sign him asap before A. He learns how to play D consistently well and/or B. He maintains his scoring pace to the end of the season and becomes one of the highest scoring defensemen in recent NHL history.

by west-sider on Dec 1, 2011 2:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

E. Karlsson

play the man – pay the man.

Go luck yourself.

by ottawachiefsfan on Dec 1, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd have to agree

At this point, they need to sign him to the longest term contract they can.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 1, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

How long is "longest term.."? Even at ten years

he’ll be only 31. Fifteen years?? As much as I like Karlsson, I am not a fan of long term contracts. They usually don’t work out well….I hope I am wrong with Karlsson though. Right now, he is simply a treat to watch, offensively.

by whatsinaname on Dec 1, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions  

No one knows with the CBA uncertainty

But for me, with the improvement that he’s shown from his rookie year to last year to this year, I think the team HAS to lock him up long term. His improvement is too obvious to ignore.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Dec 1, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting we haven't heard a squeak about contract talk so far.

He will be signed long term, Question is how long. The precedent in Ottawa is Spezza’s 7 year contract. For sure he’ll make more than Green’s $5,25. Like Adnan said, at least $6M per, maybe even more. That’s a lot of pocket money for a 22 y.o (then) kid.

by whatsinaname on Dec 1, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought something in the CBA prevented them...

…from talking contract until January. Or maybe only talking publicly. But there’s a good reason we haven’t heard anything yet, if I remember right.

by dzuunmod on Dec 1, 2011 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Mike Green's contract is the best comparable

He signed 4-years $21 million after 2007-2008 season.
He had 3-year in the NHL up to this point:

- Season 1 he had 3 points (1G, 2A) in 22 games
- Season 2 he had 12 points (2G, 10) in 70 games
- Season 3 he had 56 points (18G, 38A) in 82 games

Karlsson had more points in season 1 and 2 and is on pace to be well above him in season 3, though with less goals.

His cap hit of $5.25 million was announced on 1 July 2008, at which point the Capitals knew the 2008-2009 salary cap of $56.7 million. $5.25 million was 9.259% of the cap ceiling at the time.

9.259% of the current cap of $64.3 million is $5.95 million a year. With the cap growing a little next year, Karlsson’s value should be around $6 million/year.

Of course Karlsson would have 3 full seasons, so a 4-year deal would make him a UFA at the earliest possible time. I would go for something like 6-year $36 million though I would love 6-years $30 million.

Keep in mind Green hadn’t put up the 73 and 76 point seasons yet when he signed his deal.

Erik Karlsson is better than your favourite player.
Twitter: @sens_adnan

by Adnan on Dec 1, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

You pay him what he is worth

You pay him what he is worth in medium term contracts 3-5 years and treat him well, well enough so that he takes a page from Alfredson’s book and Lindros’ book where they are motivated every single game, every single season and pay you back for every dime you invest into them – they do not rip you off at contract negotiations, but instead feel they are part of the team and enjoy playing here enough so that he does want to stay with small home team discount.
He has proved that he is worth 5M and given his obvious shortcommings at this age and size of his body, asking for more would be a bit much IMHO, so if he signs for 3 years and plays out of his mind, plays like he is all-star again and again all those years, so what, give him what he is worth again and again.. AND AGAIN…

I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.

by TaBu on Dec 1, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Did you mean Lidstrom or did you actually mean Lindros?

Otherwise, I agree with your analysis (although maybe it will take a little more than $5 mil)

by alfie4PM on Dec 1, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions  

he takes a page from Alfredson’s book and Lindros’ book where they are motivated every single game, every single season and pay you back for every dime you invest into them

THIS.

Alfie isn’t the most highly paid player on the team, but there is no one who is more respected or valued by the organization. I think Karlsson will follow that mould. He’s a franchise player, and the reason we likely haven’t heard anything about contract talk is because they likely have talked behind closed doors and come to a “gentleman’s agreement” about what they all want. Murray has shown he’ll be good to players who are good to him (Kelly, Fisher trades, Phillips and Anderson contracts and NMC come to mind) and so they probably have an agreement between themselves re: being fair to all involved.

by The Tif on Dec 1, 2011 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Nicklas Lidstrom of course, my bad...

I think Alfie’s case is misleading. The structure of the deal is such that it seems he is only being paid $4,875,000 (cap hit), but if he decides to retire after this year (it seems that was the intent when he signed front loaded contract with $1M for last year), actual per year salary for last 3 years would be $6.166M (after subtracting that $1M), with extra $0.7M in buyout money he is receiving every year, this is almost $7M. Really Alfie is well paid and just a tiny amount less than Spezza!!! He also lost 24% on his previous contract because of CBA, but that is another story.
My point here is that he did everything to help the team lower cap hit, play well, be a leader by example, not being greedy by asking the team pay back what he lost because of CBA and earn every penny he is paid. That is the most you can ask from a player – and I hope Karlsson learned from Alfie, Lidstrom, on and off the ice… this way everyone will be happy for years to come.

I know that, that doesn't matter, I know you Mr. Rainey, that's what matters. You stole my story.

by TaBu on Dec 2, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

It will be fascinating the kind of contract that Karlsson commands… preferably a long one with a discount because he likes us so much :-}.

And I suspect that they`ll take a long look at Ryan before entertaining any offers, and the asking price would be astronomical if they moved him.

I`m cheering much more for Anaheim than the Caps. I hope Ovetchkin and Semin and the Caps end up outside the playoffs now post-Boudreau.

by Marvellous on Dec 2, 2011 11:25 AM EST reply actions  

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