FanPost

20 Games of Stats

 

20 games.  Just under 1/4 of the season.  Time for another look at the stats.  Have the good trends from the first 10 games held?  Have the bad trends reversed themselves?  Let's have a look.

As not all teams have played exactly 20 games, I have attempted to make all comparisons based on % or per game rates.  All stats are based on the games through November 17th.  This means these numbers do not include tonight's game against Vancouver.

General stats

  • Goals for per game: 2.9, 8th in the league (Prev: 2.9, 8th in the league)
  • Shots for per game: 30, 16th (Prev: 30.4, 14th) 
  • Average shooting % for: 9.67%, 10th (Prev: 9.54%, 9th) 
  • Missed shots per game: 13.6, 29th (Prev: 13.5, 24th) 
  • Goals against per game: 3.35, 27th (Prev: 3.9, 30th)
  • Shots against per game: 30, 16th (Prev: 31.2, 11th)
  • Average save %: .888, 29th (Prev: 0.875, 28th)
  • A record of 0.525, 21st (Prev: 0.500, 18th)
  • Face-off %: 50.3%, 16th (Prev: 49.8%, 15th) 
  • Give-aways per game: 9.0, 25th (Prev: 8.0, 21st) 
  • Take-aways per game: 8.2, 8th (Prev: 7.0, 14th) 
  • Blocked Shots per game: 14.3, 17th (Prev: 12.9, 22nd) 
  • Hits per game: 23.0, 6th (Prev: 23.2, 10th)

What has changed, and what hasn't?

Right off, we haven't seen any significant change in the team stats between 10 and 20 games.  That's reflected in the marginally better record.

As a raw number GAA has definitely improved with a 2.8 in the last 10 games, bringing the season average down to 3.35 from 3.9.  Ranking wise, that's still 27th in the league.  The GAA improvement is due to improvements in both shots against and SV%, but neither are significant changes on their own.  Poor Alex Auld has the worst GAA and SV% in the league.  Anderson isn't putting up much better numbers, ranking in at 55th and 52nd respectively.  Purely stat-wise, Lehner is or best goaltender so far this season thanks to his 1 game, 2 goal, 0.92 sv% performance.

Our goals for average has stayed put at 2.9.  We've have slightly fewer shots on target per game, but a higher shooting %.

Has secondary scoring improved?  Yes, it has - after 10, secondary scoring was good for 1.69 GF/G.  After 20, that has improved to 2.28 GF/G.  The bad news is the scoring from the top line has dropped from 1.5 GF/G to 1.15.

Previously, the Sens had a definite issue in 60 minute efforts with the scoring badly skewed to the 3rd period.  Here's where we stand on that now.

Goals For

Goals Against

Goals

% of Scoring

Per Game

League Average (per game)

League Rank (per game)

Goals

% of Scoring

Per Game

League Average (per game)

League Rank (per game)

1st

12

21%

0.60

0.77

23rd

22

33%

1.10

0.76

28th

2nd

16

28%

0.80

0.91

24th

20

30%

1.00

0.90

22nd

3rd

30

52%

1.50

0.98

2nd

25

37%

1.25

0.98

27th

The first period is still the weakest period for the Sens, but has improved significantly from the first 10 games in both goals for and goals against.  The second period has gotten worse for both GF and GA.  The 3rd period has gotten worse for GF, but improved for GA.  Boston has taken the title of the highest 3rd period GF/G team, though.

Discipline has not improved very much.  We're down to 14.7 PIM per game from 14.8, and now ranked 26th in the league.  More of our PIMs are from majors and misconducts than most teams, but  we're still 21st in the league for minors per game at 4.45.  We come out marginally better at times sort handed with 4.35 times per game, but worse for league ranking at 27th.

The power play has cooled somewhat, but is still strong at 22.4% and 3rd in the league.    The penalty kill has improved to 79.3%, but is still below the league average of 83% and ranks 24th.

The Sens still have some strong individual performances on the go. Our guys have dropped in points totals, with Spezza dropping 13 spots to 16th, Michalek dropping 10 spots to 18th, and Karlsson dropping 5 spots to 25th.  On the positive, Karlsson is tied for the league lead in assists with Daniel Sedin, with Spezza only 4 assists behind at 14th.  Michalek is tied for 2nd in goals, 1 goal behind 1st place Kessel.  Spezza comes in at 8th on the league's face-off leader board with a 56.6%.

Karlsson also leads all defense in points and assists, while Gonchar is 9th for both points and assists.

Consistency!

Do we have it, in stopping goals or scoring them?  I took a look at the standard deviation for SV% and SH% to see if I could figure that out.

For those not familiar with standard deviation, 68.2% of the results should be within 1 standard deviation of the overall average value, and 95.4% of 2 standard deviations.  It is also used to determine abnormally good or bad results.  A lower value means the performance is more consistent. Doesn't necessarily mean better, just more predictable.  At 20 games, we should expect 1 game to fall outside of 2 standard deviations.

Ottawa has a standard deviation on SV% of 0.061 goals per game.  At 30 shots against per game, that means a whopping difference of +/- 3.66 goals against in 95.4% of our games!  This is the 20th worst spread in the league.  The best belongs to the NY Islanders at 0.035, the worst to Winnipeg at 0.091.  Though the Islanders are one of only 4 teams where a shut-out would be considered an abnormally good result at this point, along with New Jersey, Chicago and San Jose.  Strangely, New Jersey and Chicago do both have a shut-out.

The outlying result on SV% for Ottawa was game 17 against Buffalo.  There were 5 goals in 21 shots.

We're even less consistent with scoring, with a 0.067 standard deviation on SH%, 25th in the league.  At our current 30 shots per game, that's +/- 4.02 goals in 95.4% of our games.  Around the league, the most consistent scoring team is Columbus at 0.037 (which, unfortunately for them, is paired with the 2nd worst SH% average in the league), the least consistent team is Boston at 0.086.  Only 5 teams have a shut-out against as an abnormal result - Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Nashville and the NY Rangers.  Out of those 5, the Rangers actually have been shut out.

As with SV%, Ottawa does have one game that is an outlying result - Game 20 against Edmonton, where we posted a 0.313 SH%.  This is the 2nd best single game performance in the league so far this season.

All in all it really is living up to be a roller-coaster season, at least for these two stats.

Conclusions

Really, not much has changed.  A little here and a little there, some good and some bad and almost all in the direction of the league average, all for a slight net improvement overall.   It's still early enough that things could change in a big way, but the current numbers don't show a drastic change as being likely.

Miscellaneous other stats

  • Z. Smith now shares his +/- team lead with Filip Kuba, and there are 6 players with a positive +/- who have played more than half the game
  • Average home attendance is up a bit to 18,990 - 92.6% of official capacity (incl. standing room)
  • Spezza, after 5 goals in the first 10 games, only scored 1 goal in the last 10 game and is still 2 goals away from 200 regular season NHL goals

This FanPost was written by a member of the Silver Seven community, and does not necessarily reflect the beliefs or opinions of the site managers, editors, or Sports Blogs Nation, Inc.

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