Silver Nuggets: Can Erik Karlsson one day win the Norris Trophy?
Yesterday, Andrew Gharib wrote a fan blog on Sportsnet about the most underrated players in the NHL. One of the players listed was Erik Karlsson and Gharib wrote:
Erik Karlsson, Senators - His plus/minus isn't anything to write home about, but he is the engine that runs the Sens on the backend. A prolific puck handler and skater, Karlsson is almost a point per game player (1 goal, 16 assists in 19 games), and averages over 25 minutes a game. We'll soon be hearing his name in Norris trophy talks.
Karlsson is very unlikely to win the Norris Trophy this season. But can he in the future? Mike Green's 76 points in 75 games and 73 points in 68 games helped make him a finalist twice for the trophy. Green never won it, but he was in the running. Erik Karlsson is a long way from those kinds of offensive numbers, though early in the season he is on pace for 74 points. Green also scored 19 and 31 goals in those two seasons, while Karlsson has just the one. Karlsson is on pace for 271 shots though, more than Green ever got, and you have to think the goals will start going in for him at some point.
The biggest knock against Karlsson is his defensive play. He is getting better in his own zone, and I would argue he is at least average defensively. Looking at the quality of competition, Karlsson is also playing against the opposition's better players, while Green was near the bottom. Green also had Alexander Ovechkin on his team to help his offensive numbers.
It will be tough for Karlsson to overcome the image of a strictly offensive defenceman and the fact that he plays on a team with a relatively small fan-base, but he is slowly becoming an all-round player who is even useful on the penalty kill.
Disclaimer: Erik Karlsson is my favourite player.
Last game
- Game recap. (Silver Seven, Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra, Copper and Blue)
- Stats from NHL.com [Boxscore] [Game summary] [Face-offs] [Play by play] [Ice time]
- Advanced stats from TimeOnIce.com. [Corsi] [Head-to-head] [Zone starts]
- Scoring chances from last night. (mc79hockey)
- Was the Nikita Filatov situation just a misunderstanding? Dmitry Chesnokov doesn't think Filatov wants to return to Russia but was beginning to feel this was becoming like Columbus all over again. (Sensay)
- The Binghamton Senators will play in Montréal tonight and hope the change of scenery will help them end an eight-game losing streak. (Press & Sun-Bulletin)
- Jason Spezza feels a bit older when told he was the idol of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. (Ottawa Sun)
- Bruce Garrioch and Denis Potvin pick their all-star teams. Alfie is the captain of Team Garrioch. (Ottawa Sun)
- Sens assistant coach Mark Reeds talks about his history with Paul MacLean. (Ottawa Senators)
- UPDATE: Bryan Murray is not looking to trade any of the club's young players, but might add a player to help the team if the cost is right. (Sportsnet)
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I'd say Karlsson is above-average defensively, too
Not to the degree that he’s above-average offensively, but I continue to be impressed by his abilities in disarming much bigger opponents in the defensive end.
Not sure if and when that might mean he’ll be a Norris finalist, but I guess that’s part of the fun of watching a young guy like Karlsson develop.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Nov 18, 2011 1:05 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I hear and obey
I find Karlsson doesnt really have all that many “WTF are you doing!?” moments defensively anymore. If by a flub (honestly, bound to happen) someone gets by him I find myself asking “Holy how did he catch up to that guy on the backcheck!?” more than anything. Norris or not I think if he keeps his pace in 3 or 4 years Our Special Little Guy is going to be one of the premiere point men in the league. Also, most surprising is that he has only two goals. If he keeps shooting the puck like he is that’s number’s going to jump in a hurry. Kid has an absolute bullet.
How is anyone supposed to top Sterling Snakehouse?
by worsteverything on Nov 18, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with this.
His reputation is a big factor when people talk about his d-skills. He has shown the ability to shut down big guns not infrequently (e.g., Ovechkin) and he frequently plays well above his size, managing to ride guys into the boards, etc.
Most of the remaining problems come from the risks he takes, and even those are diminishing.
In sum: he is awesome!
by sensory_experience on Nov 18, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
I think Karlsson will be a Norris finalist, but I don't think he'll be a Norris winner
Norris winners these days tend to be players who are considered great all-around defenders. They are 40-60 point players, but they also are often the best players in their own zone, as well.
Even if Karlsson develops into one of the better defenders in his own zone for the Sens, I think he’s going to be stuck with the Green type stigma of being bad defensively. If Green didn’t win the Norris with his outrageous point totals, I’m not sure Karlsson has any hope.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
He would need to shut down a high profile team in a playoff series
If he can shut down Ovechkin, Crosby or Kessel in a playoff series, then his defensive reputation would rise.
Then in the following seasons he might have a chance. I agree it is difficult to over come stigma other wise.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Nov 18, 2011 1:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Ew Kessel
Sad but true that you put kessel in that same league as Sid and Ovi
Well I meant for high profile purposes
Not in hockey talent. ;)
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
True?
With Crosby and Ovechkin? You guys are drinking the blue koolaid.
by RogerTheShrubber on Nov 18, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
You don’t think it would help Karlsson’s defensive reputation around the league if he shutdown the best player on the league’s most popular team?
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Nope.
I don’t think the Toronto media would be heaping praise on Ottawa. They’d be too busy shitting all over everything at MLSE that moves.
by RogerTheShrubber on Nov 18, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
What about the National media?
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I think you've got something on your shoulder there
Looks a little like a chip….
His size will always be an issue.
Even if he’s capable defensively, people will always point to his 180 or less lbs and say, yea but he doesn’t physically dominate the opposing forwards in his own zone and that he is one dimensional.
by whatsinaname on Nov 18, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
Critics can try to point to his 180 lbs...
But his massive, muscular arms might get in the way.
by sensory_experience on Nov 18, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Are you guys on the small side, like me?
Like they say, its not the size…my arms and wrists are like steel rods. But this is not about me….oh yea, its about Karlsson.
by whatsinaname on Nov 18, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
What, Garrioch didn’t pick Elliott as his starter?
by modsuperstar on Nov 18, 2011 1:13 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I voted yes Konopka will win the Norris.
Oh, Karlsson? Meh.
Seriously, yes I would say he will one day. I was really frustrated with his defense for the last couple of years, but this year (and maybe even late last year) he’s really been impressive at times. Watching him with Ovie was incredible.
by Pmoron on Nov 18, 2011 1:15 PM EST via mobile reply actions
It's easy to forget how young he is
I still consider him slightly below average defensively, but I think he’s improved tremendously in a short period of time, and I expect that to continue.
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One only needs too look at the job he did vs Ovechkin in the game against Washington to see his defensive ability
It was amazing to see him so completely shut down Ovechkin – a noted Ottawa killer in years past. He may not be bringing that complete a game on a consistent basis yet. But t showed what he is capable of. I have always thought that he had the potential to be a Nicklas Lidstrom type player with a little more offense to his game, and based on that performance, I still think he can be.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
Shutting down Ovechkin was actually more Kuba than Karlsson, in my opinion
I do remember Karlsson standing Ovie up at the blueline, though. For me, it’s all about him learning angles and craftiness to take the puck away. He’s never going to be big enough to outmuscle someone, and learning those other skills takes time.
Cowen, for instance, doesn’t need skill to shove someone out of the way. That’s just basic physics: F=MA.
Karlsson doesn’t have the same luxury and is taking longer to develop defensively. I’m fine with that.
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But Karlsson has better acceleration!
and he is faster!
p = mv
Momentum: Karlsson!
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
You still have the mass in momentum....
Cowen is 1.333 Karlssons can karlsson go 1.333x faster than Cowen doubt it
I just remember being impressed
Nearly everytime Ovie was on the ice, so was Karlsson. I can remember more than one play where Ovie was bearing down on Karlsson. Kudos to Kuba as well for a strong season (& that game as well) as we know, it takes both players in a d-pair playing well.
It will definately be his positional play and stickwork that will make him great defensively. I believe he will be more than just a one dimensional player.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I believe that as well
He’s never going to be a shutdown guy, but that doesn’t mean he’ll never be good defensively.
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Also, for the record, in your own recap of that, you credited Karlsson with shutting down Ovi more so than Kuba. ;)
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Ha
I guess my memory is terrible. You should have quoted me and really driven the point home.
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I was going to but...
I didn’t want to be THAT much of an ass.
Sens buddies? :D
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
He plays for the Sens, he’ll never win. If he wore a Leafs jersey, he would be a God. #biasedmedia
by sensfan_19 on Nov 18, 2011 1:18 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Filatov
Interesting article over at Sensay. Too bad about the (totally predictable) tear down in the Sun today.
by sensory_experience on Nov 18, 2011 1:32 PM EST reply actions
His partner will have a lot to do with his candidacy
If/when Karlsson plays with a huge, stay at home defenceman his +/- will improve and he will look better defensively. No offence to Kuba who has been solid this season, but he will never be the lesser half of a Norris nominated defensive pairing. Cowen could be, Gyrba and Borowiecki don’t look like they have that much potential, maybe whoever we draft with our first this year will be (in this draft we would be almost insane not to draft a defenceman unless we are picking in the top 5)?I think more than Karlsson’s own development the luxury of having Brent Seabrook, Niklas Kronwall, Matt Greene, or Brooks Orpik will factor into him winning the Norris.
he can win but it won't be easy
I think it’ll take a few years of 55+ points and a decent +/- to win. 09/10 winner Duncan Keith had 69 points and was a plus 21. Both are numbers that 65 can meet/exceed.
The problem with 65 winning a Norris now or in the next 10 years is he has stiff competition. Doughty is already a media darling. No-Teeth Keith will be around and plays in a massive market. Staal will likely get consideration a couple times. I think Alex Edler is an absolute monster and could win a couple. Myers will eventually get his game back. There’s a load of great, young Dmen that will be around for a while.
He has a chance…but consistency is the main ingredient for winning a Norris…hence why Lidstrom/Bourque/Niedermayer have won it so many times. Every single winner has had an amazing career. It’s a tough trophy to win.
"I couldn't score in a brothel...couldn't finish a sandwich"
- Joe Corvo
Woo de la hoo!
Can’t wait to le read!
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I love how 92% think he can win eventually ;)
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
he's your favourite player
of course you love it. and if you only love it with a nudge and a wink, as a true Karlsson fan, how can you reject such group love?
UPDATE: Murray won't trade young guys for veterans for a playoff chase
He said he might add a piece, but isn’t looking to trade any young assets.
Whew!
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
If we are actualy in a playoff spot or close to it at trade deadline??
What do we do with Kuba?? Hes not gonna be a part of the future and probably won’t be resigned, so trade or no trade?? If he keeps playing like he is we might be able to get a 2nd, or 3rd rounder for him. If we don’t trade him and he just walks at the end of the season, definitely a waste… after all we gave up mezaros for him!
LOL
Negotiating rights to a guy who’s 35 years old and would be signing a guaranteed veterans contract. I bet there will be teams lining up for that.
by modsuperstar on Nov 18, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
We trade him
There’s not much debate on that front so far.
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hmmmm
i don’t know if it’s that clear-cut. I mean, i was/is on the rebuild train but frankly, if we’re clearly in a playoff spot, why would we give-away one of our most reliable defensemen? I think if we’re in a clear playoff spot, sell-offs for draft-picks makes a little less sense.
I don't see justifiable reason for keeping him
This team is not a Stanley Cup contender. To think so is deluding ourselves. Asset mismanagement in the hopes of catching fire for a playoff run is what got us to Senate Reform to begin with. For the Senators, Kuba is not the difference between a Cup and elimination, but he could be for another team.
For me, that means we trade him, wish him well, and use the playoffs (if we make it) to get our young guys some valuable experience with the goal of coming back stronger the next year.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I doubt the Senators will shy away from trading him
Mostly because he’s not going to be a future part of this organization (although replacing his minutes played will be a difficult task).
However, the price to acquire him will be higher if the Senators are competing for a playoff spot. Murray might accept a third or fourth rounder at the deadline if we’re right out of the playoffs, assuming that’s the best offer; he’d likely demand more than that if we’re still in the picture. The worst-case scenario is that Kuba walks in the off-season.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Nov 19, 2011 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
I just don't think the value will be high enough to warrant trading Kuba
I’d probably rather keep kuba around for the theoretical playoff run than get a third round pick, or some sort of minor return like that.
Co-manager, Silver Seven
Good point, Darren
I guess it’s ignorant to say he should be traded without knowing his trade value. I think I’d probably prefer Kuba to a third rounder from a playoff team even if it meant we got nothing when he left in the offseason.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
If its ignorant to speculate without knowing his value to other teams....
Its probably ignorant to do so without knowing his value to us. (though ignorant is probably too strong a word for what we’re talking about here. “unreasonably speculative” might capture it better)
I’d take a 3rd rounder if we’re in the basement at the trade deadline. As you say above, it just gives more playing time to the youngsters,
by RogerTheShrubber on Nov 19, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
And if we are in the hunt for a playoff spot?
Keep him for the ride. We may make a run of it. What if we make it past the 1st round? Is making the playoff worth a 3rd round?
by whatsinaname on Nov 19, 2011 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
It's shocking Green didn't win the Norris that one year
Regardless of his alleged defensive ability (which I think is underrated), he scored 30 goals in 2008-09. 31 goals. By a defenseman. In only 68 games. Hadn’t happened since 1992-93.
2 goals, 1 assist, +2 for Filatov tonight
Had a goal disallowed too. Binghamton finally ends losing streak and wins 4-2.
That’s now 6 goals in 12 AHL games for Filatov.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Maybe Murray's talk was just the pick me up he needed.
It was interesting that everyone played better. I think Murray described him as a player who makes his team (or linemates) better.
by Pmoron on Nov 18, 2011 11:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'd like to think so
He might have just needed a wake-up call to remind him that whether or not he gets to play in the NHL is entirely dependent on how much he’s willing to do to get there.
I also honestly believe Murray that if Filatov hasn’t shown he’s an NHL player by the new year, he’ll let the kid out of his contract so he can play in the KHL. Which seems fair.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Nov 19, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
Can you imagie Filatov/Winchester/Butler?
A 4th line with speed and scoring.
by whatsinaname on Nov 19, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
I would much prefer a third line of Filatov-Da Costa-Butler
Our fourth line can be Winchester-Z. Smith-Neil — perfectly capable of playing 10 minutes a night.
I hate bumping Condra out of the lineup like that, though.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Condra is a role player
And he does it well. But sometimes your role as a role player is to sit in the press box. So it goes.
There will be injuries anyways. It’s amazing how quickly you can go for 2 players in the press box to calling up the AHL team.
by RogerTheShrubber on Nov 19, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, with Zenon out, there's not much difference
between the 3rd and the 4th lines.
by whatsinaname on Nov 19, 2011 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Ha, I don't know about that
I wouldn’t expect a line of Filatov-Da Costa-Butler to hit or win faceoffs very often. But it’s the kind of line I think would really ruin the days of some 5-6 defense pairings.
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I like this
But what is the second line? Is that after Regin is back?
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
In a perfect world, yes
Right now, I guess the second line would be Rooster-Foligno-Alfie. I don’t know if that’s ideal. I’m not convinced Daugavins is a top-six kind of player.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Ha
Don’t forget that I might trade Spezza before you advocate my hiring.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
It’s why you should be the coach. You would be a terrible GM.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Child, please
I would be an amazing GM. Have you not read my application!?
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by Mark Parisi on Nov 20, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
I'd rather leave Condra with Neil and ZSmith for now, plus I prefer Winchester at centre
But I wouldn’t mind seeing Daugavins play on Winchester’s wing if he gets bumped out of the top 6.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Filly don't do Rebounds
So, that Sun article about Spezza being a hero of Nugent Hopkins starts by talking about a supposed quote of Filatov’s when, apparently, a former coach was showing him video of situations where they wanted him to crash the net and create rebound opportunities. Apparently, Filatov backed off after a few clips and said “Filly don’t do rebounds.”
This quote, frankly, confuses the heck out of me. It just SOUNDS fake. My first thought was that it was a Garrioch invention, but looking it up on the internet, I found that a Columbus reporter indeed said he had a source on this quote. It still didn’t sound to me like anything anyone would actually say, so much as something someone who wants everyone to hate Filatov to think he said, so I kept reading. I then found this interesting comment on the Ottawa Citizen’s SenatorsExtra story about this quote.
jacketscausemenothingbutpain says:
November 19, 2011 at 12:14 pm
Blue jackets victim here – Folks, a little perspective from Columbus. What is being ignored is that Portzline, who filed the original report, works for the Columbus Dispatch. Columbus is a one newspaper town and the Dispatch is it. Here’s where it gets juicy, the Dispatch are partial owners of the Jackets. So, year after year, we get reporting that is on it’s best day biased, on it’s worse, pure propaganda. The Jackets blew it with "Filly". The tried to turn a racehorse into a plow horse because Hitchcock was the coach and when Hitch was in Columbus, he wanted a team filled with 260 pound defensemen. Why did Steve Mason look good as a rookie and has been horrible since? Columbus played defense – and nothing else – back then. Could "Filly" have said it? Maybe. I wasn’t there. Neither was Portzline. But since Filatov was, at that time, making people question how the Jackets were being run, I would put my money on this being team propaganda. Can’t question management, especially when the Dispatch is part of that management! Here’s what you need to know about the Jackets, beside that they are awful – the President of the team was the majority owner’s financial advisor. That’s his hockey background – trading stocks. If you owned a hockey team, would you hire your stock broker to run it? Me, neither. The team has been losing money for years, the arena is always half empty – except when a visiting team’s fans pack the place – and the Jackets are looking for a taxpayer bailout. So, sure, slander the players! Throw anyone and everyone under the bus, but NEVER take responsibility for mismanaging the team! So, ANYTHING you read from the Dispatch, read with a healthy dose of skepticism. There is an agenda there and it’s not good, investigative reporting. Eleven years of horrible hockey. Is that really just the fault of JUST the players and the coaches? Absolutely not. But saying anything else jeopardizes the bailout and enrages the bosses. And we can’t have that! So, tip of the cap to you Sensay. You are quite right to be skeptical. And shame on you Mr. Gordon for automatically giving a colleague the benefit of the doubt without understanding the dynamics of working for the Dispatch. I don’t blame Portzline. He probably has a family to feed. But, you, Mr. Gordon are not beholden to the Dispatch. You could have peeked under the rug and realized a LOT of dust is being swept under there.
Interesting little tidbit that makes me appreciate what we’ve got here in Ottawa. Sure, the Sun is drivel, and some legitimate complaints can be made about some of the team’s decisions, but we sure don’t have to put up crap like this…
Yeah I found it interesting too that he is given “clearance” to reveal it now and not back when it was actually more relevant.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Even if Filatov were not to believe in rebounds
it would foolhardy for him to vocalize that to a coach. So, this story is either a stretch and misrepresented or Filatov’s is downright dumb for saying it. But how can any hockey player not believe or doesn’t do rebounds!! The fact remains though, he’s looking in from the outside. And if he doesn’t prove he belongs in the NHL and returns to the motherland, the mystery remains.
by whatsinaname on Nov 20, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
It really sounds like a joke to me
’Cause no player could ever say that to a coach and be serious.
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