Silver Nuggets: Paul MacLean's use of defencemen

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 1:00 PM EST in Silver Nuggets

Earlier this morning, Derek Zona over at the excellent Copper and Blue, looked at the defensive deployments by Tom Renney. Derek was kind enough to send me the Senators version of this (he really is awesome by the way).

Click on the chart or here to find the full-sized picture.

The size of the bubble represents the magnitude of the player's zone-start adjusted relative Corsi. A blue bubble is a positive zone-start adjusted relative Corsi and a red bubble is a negative. Thus, the biggest blue represents the highest Corsi, followed by a smaller blue bubble, then a smaller white bubble and the largest white bubble is the lowest zone-start Corsi.

The x-axis represents the relative Corsi of the opposition faced by each defencemen. The more right a bubble, the tougher the competition they faced. The y-axis represents the percentage of face-offs taken in the defensive zone. The higher the bubble, the larger the percentage of defensive zone starts.

Jared Cowen is the only player that comes out on the negative side. This is despite Cowen playing a far-easier competition than most of the players. This would suggest to me that Cowen is playing a lot of time in his own zone and struggling to get the puck out. David Rundblad on the other hand, has the highest Corsi rating, despite playing against the toughest competition out of any Senators defenceman (albeit only slightly). While Rundblad has more than held his own by this measure, I get the sense that Rundblad is being misused at this point in his career. As expected, Chris Phillips has the highest percentage of defensive-zone starts. Brian Lee faces the easiest competition.

Tonight's game

Game preview. (Senators Extra, Ottawa Sun)
The panel is split with four predicting a win and three predicting a loss. Peter went with 3-1 for the Oilers. (Senators Extra)
The Senators haven't practised yet today, but Bobby Butler remained on the fourth line yesterday despite this two goals in Calgary. (Sylvain St-Laurent)

General Sens News

You can listen to Bryan Murray talking to reporters about the Nikita Filatov situation here. (Team 1200)
Murray said he might consider being a "good guy" and let Filatov go later if he doesn't plan to keep him in Ottawa. (The 6th Sens)
The Senators plan everything down to the last detail on road trips. Everyone gets 8-9 hours of sleep. They question the players on if they are tired, hungry or irritated. Before leaving for the west, the Senators kept the players up an extra two hours on Sunday to adjust to the time difference. (Ottawa Citizen)
Paul MacLean has waited a while to get a head coaching opportunity, but he finally got the right set of circumstances to be able to get a chance. (Edmonton Journal)
Daniel Alfredsson scored an own-goal late in the second period against Calgary. Ian Mendes was scheduled to interview Alfredsson during the intermission and was considering asking for a different player. But, he ended up going ahead and talking to Alfredsson anyway, because Alfie is not the kind of guy who hides. Alfredsson walked up to Mendes and right away he said, "Ian, I put that one in my own net." He really is such an incredible leader. (Sportsnet)
Tim Murray and Randy Lee talked about the struggling Binghamton Senators with Joy Lindsay. Murray acknowledges the club is missing the veterans from last year, but says they wanted to keep them, it was the players that chose to leave. (Press & Sun-Bulletin)

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Comments

That chart is very interesting.

Thanks for that.

by RogerTheShrubber on Nov 17, 2011 1:06 PM EST reply actions

Yeah I found it pretty neat. Keep in mind that as it has already been adjusted for zone starts, the vertical position of the bubble isn’t as important.

Hasn’t been adjusted for opposition quality, which is why horizontal left-right still matters. Rundblad looks pretty good by that, but I question, why not let him loose against a third line? BOOM!

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

I always question opposition quality

Do you know how it’s measured? Is it just the Corsi of the players they face? If it is that, a weaker player could go up against a line that only faces weak lines, or gets a lot of o-zone starts…making their corsi higher than it is.
Also, if it’s measured cumulative for the season, then I imagine Rundblad – Lee having opposite end Corsi competition is related to them playing different games. Surprisingly, Lee has played almost exclusively good teams. But he also played more during their losing streak. So possibly the explanation is tthat hey won’t risk him playing the 1st line in those tough games, while they let Rundblad free when they were hot.
Then again, maybe it’s just too small a sample size… or maybe Lee just isn’t that good.

by BD Rebuilders on Nov 17, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

It’s the weighted average of the Corsi of the players they face. So if Rundblad plays 20% of his ice time against players A, B,C and 80% against D, E and F, then his corsi relative of opposition would be 0.2 (Corsi A + Corsi B + Corsi C) + 0.8 (Corsi D + Corsi E of Corsi F)

What you are saying is certainly plausible – Erik Condra leads the Senators in Unadjusted relative Corsi. But still, if that player has a high rating in general, but not against Rundblad, that means something.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

Check out Eric’s version on Broad Street Hockey, from this past June:
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2011/6/21/2235234/visualizing-the-flyers-situations-and-results

Or the original, from Arctic Ice Hockey (called OZQoC Charts):
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/6/20/2233834/winnipeg-ozqoc-graphs

by Rob Vollman on Nov 20, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

Awesome!

Very interesting. Graphical form really helps point these things out.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 20, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

Cool chart indeed

Also, I think it would be helpful the word Corsi be perma-linked to the Corsi number article.

by SuckItTrebek on Nov 17, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

This is a great idea!

Can we also perma-link the word “defenceman” to an Erik Karlsson profile? :D

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

Have you seen the way Karlsson plays ;)

by SuckItTrebek on Nov 17, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

Better than Bobby Orr. ;)

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

Murray is just saying that because he doesn't want to get traded

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 1:21 PM EST reply actions

Haha

“The Ottawa Senators announced today that they are trading Bryan Murray and a conditional Assistant GM for Steve Yzerman.”

Co-manager, Silver Seven

by DarrenM on Nov 17, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Rec'd

I so wish we could do this. Not that I’m not a BMur fan, but when you get a chance to take Stevie Y, you take Stevie Y.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

Definitely

Especially if you can bring him back home.

by SuckItTrebek on Nov 17, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

Didn't Stevie Y refuse a trade to Ottawa?

But yea, can you imagine if he comes home to be the GM?

by whatsinaname on Nov 17, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think he outright refused

But he did say that he was happy where he was, regarding some speculation. I think that was back in Detroit.

by SuckItTrebek on Nov 17, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

Rec'd +1.

We had a chance at Yzie that season where Murray’s contract expired.

Let’s just put it this way…I don’t mind Murray much, a lot like I don’t mind a Mozza Burger much…but had Stevie Y come here I would have been in full-blown mancrush mode for the duration. That said, it’s probably not bad that Murray is here so we can have some reasonble discourse.

by Quizzical Quorum on Nov 18, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

Ha!

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by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

A bunch of Bingo's veterans may have decided to leave, but I know at least one they could have kept.

David. Effing. Hale.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 2:13 PM EST reply actions

He retired from hockey

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

Because no one re-signed him.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

"if you don't re-sign, I resign"

Co-manager, Silver Seven

by DarrenM on Nov 17, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

Ha!

Seriously though, it’s better than the Chelios route of just awkwardly hanging around until someone caves and gives you a deal!

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

I can't wait to see

A defense combination of Carkner\Cowen.

by SuckItTrebek on Nov 17, 2011 3:55 PM EST reply actions

I can't wait to see Carkner back in our lineup

Frankly I don’t really care who he plays with

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

Obviously.

And I can’t wait to get home and have some unsalted pretzels and a glass of tepid water.

by RogerTheShrubber on Nov 17, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

Flagged

You’ll take Carkner back in the lineup and you’ll like it.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

Carks is awesome.

But he generally tends to generate more defense than excitement.

What do you have against pretzels anyways?

by RogerTheShrubber on Nov 17, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

What do I have against pretzels?

Ever buy a bag of snack mix and end up with nothing but crappy pretzels by the end because they always put way more pretzels than any of the good stuff? That’s what I have against pretzels.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

Pretzels are the Bill Muckalt of snack mix.

by RogerTheShrubber on Nov 17, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

No snacks for me, I have to watch my weight

gotta keep myself svelte

by whatsinaname on Nov 17, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

I just hate the potato rings.

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by Peter Raaymakers on Nov 18, 2011 8:56 AM EST up reply actions

But the rings are so good!

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 18, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

Double servings of Chex in my snack mixes

I’m a pretzel racist, and I don’t care who knows it!

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 18, 2011 8:57 AM EST up reply actions

And I can't wait to see Marty St Louis skate by them like they're standing still

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

Zing!

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

That is if the two of them don't block the entirety of the blue line.

by SuckItTrebek on Nov 17, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

Cowen is far too lanky for that.

Why do you think he is, Kyle Wellwood?

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

If he gets by them, he needs to shoot it on net

If he goes to the corner, it won’t end well

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

Truth

I guess I just thought it would be funny to throw them together for 13’ of D. Didn’t think about it as a completely serious line pairing.

Good points though.

by SuckItTrebek on Nov 17, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

I don't really see how Carkner plays unless two of the 7 guys get hurt

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

Well you forget that they're extremely willing to scratch Lee, regardless of whether you agree with it or not.

Plus aren’t people assuming Rundblad’ll go down to Bingo for a bit? Or did he improve a lot in the Calgary game?

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

Rundblad didn't play against Calgary

Lee has gotten scratched because they felt they had to get Rundblad some games. I don’t see any organisational need for Carkner to get games though, he’s more of a spare part instead of a future stud defenceman like Rundblad.

Lee hasn’t been scratched due to bad play though.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, Rundblad's the only reason they scratch Lee

Clearly you’ve forgotten about last season. Seriously, Lee is always the first D to get scratched. It’s usually not about his play, but based on last season I’d pick Carks over Lee anyway.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

I know you would pick Carkner. But I said, I don’t really see how Carkner gets in without injuries. Key word being I. ;)

I suppose they might throw him a game or two here and there though.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

But you're saying you don't see how he plays

Which ignores the fact that BMur etc scratch Brian Lee all. the. time. Not to mention the fact that Lee is unspectacular – he’s a perfectly serviceable defenseman, but he’s not a really great shut down guy and he’s not one of those offensive defencemen and he’s not particularly a grinder. He’s just there. At least Carks can lay a hit.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

Fun fact

Lee had 17 more hits than Carkner last year in the same # of games.

Lee is young and has potential to get better. Carkner does not.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

Another fun fact

Lee spent 25 consecutive games as a healthy scratch last season. Regardless of your opinion, all evidence points to Lee sitting to make room for Carkner.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

That was the first half of the season. Lee was a regular for most of the new year. Granted Carkner was injured for some of that, but I really don’t see how all evidence points to making room for Carkner.

I am sure they will play him a few games, but even if Rundblad is sent down, I would expect Lee to play. If they are not playing Lee, then they should play Rundblad instead of Carkner.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Yes yes, you don't value Carks because he fights

Keep in mind too that he’s one potential tradeable asset. You can’t trade what you don’t play.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

I didn’t say anything about fighting. I don’t feel fighting brings anything extra though, that’s correct.

So if one doesn’t consider fighting to be an asset, then yes I prefer Lee to Carkner and certainly Rundblad to Carkner.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

No one is debating Rundblad vs Carkner

Except to the extent that Rundblad could benefit from seasoning in the AHL.

But you can’t properly evaluate a guy like Carkner because of how you discount his fighting and general physicality. That’s a huge part of what he brings to the lineup, and if you just ignore it then you can’t make comparisons.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions

Where have I discounted his physicality?

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

I think that Lee is a better defenseman than Carkner

But Carkner brings a different set of skills than Lee. If I had to choose between them, I’d look at my opponent for the night.

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe

I just think there are other players who bring the same skill set as Lee and who bring it better (Phillips, Cowen). If they’re both there, why do I need a watered down version of the same thing when I could have something different?

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

Well, again, I think it depends on your opponent

A heavy forechecking team like Boston calls for Carkner. But against a speed team, I’d rather have Lee.

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think Rundblad should be sent down based on what I've seen

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

No? Well we'll see

I thought a bunch of people had been talking about it. Hasn’t he been scratched for two in a row? Better to send him down than have him Brian Lee it up in the presser.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

Hah

Anyone know the Sweedish word for double-down?

by SuckItTrebek on Nov 17, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions

KFCsson?

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

If he's going to sit for extended time, it's probably better to get him AHL minutes

But I don’t think that’s the case just yet.

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

Not yet, no

But when Carks is back in, that might change. It’ll depend on whether Rumball bounces back whenever he makes it back in, I suppose.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

Is it because you like seeing magic?

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

No, it's because he's been a solid defenseman

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

If Rundblad were in the SEL, he'd play 50-55 games

well, let him play 55-60 games here in the NHL without sending him to the AHL. He can probably learn more sitting in the press box watching the games than going to the minors. Okay, I am also biased: I like Rundblad.

by whatsinaname on Nov 17, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

Is it because you like seeing magic?

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Nov 17, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions

Yes. Magic I like.

by whatsinaname on Nov 17, 2011 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

Me too

But I think playing always trumps watching when it comes to learning.

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by Mark Parisi on Nov 17, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

He's a rookie who makes defensive mistakes, but

when it comes to handling the puck in the offensive zone, there’s nothing rookie about him: he’s cool and downright arrogantly confident. In the first few games, opponents were going around him. You don’t see that as much now. He’s definitely a quick learner. His scoring will come and frequently too after the first goal.

by whatsinaname on Nov 17, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

This

If he’s sitting for a couple of games, fine. But if it’s going to be more than 3-4, might as well send him to Bingo for that stretch and get him playing.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Nov 17, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

Binghamton

I am starting to feel sorry for them. When Carkner and Regin get back I would like to see DaCosta and Rundblad go down to Binghamton for a while to help them pull out of their tail-spin and start winning some games again.

by DW19 on Nov 17, 2011 5:09 PM EST reply actions