Silver Nuggets: Anderson confident; Fights rare in close games
by Adnan on Oct 3, 2011 1:01 PM EDT
in Silver Nuggets
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PrintOctober is here and later this week, the Ottawa Senators will play a competitive game. Are you ready for some hockey? Before I get to the links, earlier this morning I expressed dismay at Corey Cowick being paired with Francis Lessard in Binghamton practice. Moments later, Joy Lindsay informed me that Lessard had just scored on Robin Lehner. I am very disappointed in you Robin.
Here are today's links:
General Sens News
- If Craig Anderson plays like he is capable of, and I don't mean necessarily with a .939 save percentage, the Senators will be definitely better than 15th in East. Anderson jokes that as long as they beat 15th, the media will be happy. How will Anderson perform? You will get our opinions in a post later today. (Ottawa Sun)
- Today is definitely going to be Craig Anderson Day at Silver Seven. Here is another article on the Senators goaltender. In the 2010 playoffs, Anderson stole a 1-0 overtime win for the Avalanche against the Sharks where Colorado was outshot 51-16. The winning goal? An own goal by Dan Boyle. Anderson might have to steal a lot of those this year. (Ottawa Citizen)
- Chris Phillips is back from injury while Matt Carkner is not. The pairings this morning were: Phillips / Lee; Gonchar / Cowen; Karlsson / Kuba and Rundblad is the seventh man. I like the looks of these pairings and anyone of them is capable of playing twenty minutes on a given night. If he isn't playing, I would cut Rundblad now rather than having him sitting around as a healthy scratch. (Ian Mendes)
- UPDATE: Matt Carkner had knee surgery this morning and is out indefinitely as he is not Daniel Alfredsson. (Dan Seguin)
- Milan Michalek has moved onto the top line with Jason Spezza and Nikita Filatov. Bobby Butler is on the fourth line now with Konopka and Condra. The full lines: 1) Michalek - Spezza - Filatov; 2) Greening - Zibanejad - Alfredsson; 3) Foligno - Smith - Neil; 4) Condra - Konopka - Butler. Stéphane Da Costa was the thirteenth forward. (Ian Mendes)
- Jason Spezza is saying all the right things after officially being named the alternate captain, mentioning that he has to think about the whole team, not just himself. The current captain, Daniel Alfredsson also thinks Spezza's leadership will make his job a lot easier. You got to think Giggles is hands down the next captain, possibly as early as next year. (Ottawa Sun)
- Pro Hockey Talk at NBC sees the best case for the Senators as Anderson carrying the Senators into the playoffs and stretching a division winner to six or seven games in round one. From a long term point of view, the Senators could play good enough to be respectable but bad enough to earn a high pick. Realistically, they see the Senators as perhaps briefly contending for a playoff spot early on before fading later in the season. (Pro Hockey Talk)
- Twelve questions to consider for the Senators upcoming season, looking at goalscoring, Craig Anderson's workload, the veteran defencemen, the younger players, what constitutes a successful season and more. (Ottawa Citizen)
- The most hilarious Senators blog on the internet, formerly known as The Cory Clouston Fashion Review has now been renamed to Welcome To Your Karlsson Years. As expected, I highly approve of this name. After Eugene Melnyk, I can't think of someone more guaranteed of a spot in the Senators future than Erik Karlsson, so they shouldn't have to change the name any time soon. (Welcome To Your Karlsson Years)
More after the jump.
General Hockey News
- It is commonly accepted that fights are very rare in the playoffs, but what about the regular season? It turns out, even in the regular season the fights generally occur when the outcome is no longer in doubt. The frequency of fights decreases the closer the game is, as well as decreasing as the game nears its end. In a tie game in the third period, a fight occurs just under every 1,400 minutes. It really is just a side show and not an important part of even NHL hockey as far as determining a winner is concerned. (mc79hockey.com)
- Staying with the theme, Ryan Dixon thinks that the fact that a lot of people like fighting isn't a good enough reason to keep it in the game. Is fighting a bigger deterrent to cheap-shots or the lengthy suspensions being handed out by Brendan Shanahan? (Sportsnet)
- Ryan Lambert makes his twenty bold predictions for the season where he predicts Evgeni Malkin to win the Art Ross and Hart, Rick Nash and Steven Stamkos battling it out for the Rocket Richard, the Capitals running away with the East (in regular season) and Sidney Crosby finishing top five in scoring. He also says the Senators goaltending and defence will be so bad, it won't matter what the goalscoring is like. (Yahoo!)
- How important are the first two months of the season? In the eastern conference, seven of the eight clubs in a playoff spot on 1 December finished in the top eight at the end of the season. (Yahoo!)
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Realistically, they see the Senators as perhaps briefly contending for a playoff spot early on before fading later in the season.
This seems like a very reasonable expectation for this season. The Senators just don’t have enough scoring depth or experience to sustain a drive for the playoffs past mid-season (IMHO).
If you listen to Lambert, we don’t have goaltending or defence either.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
This seems like a reasonable expectation but I disagree...
I believe that October and November will be brutal we will be all over the place and the new kids will be figuring things out on the fly and MacLeans system will not yet be properly used game in game out….We may be the NJD of 10-11 to a lesser degree having a much better second half or two thirds of the season. But as stated multiple times on this day if Anderson rules…we rule!
That could be...
My best guess is that a combination of youngsters hitting the wall as the season goes along and vets wearing out and possibly getting injured will conspire to snuff out any chances through the December-February middle part of the season. There might be some promising early signs due to hope/adrenaline and maybe a post-trade-deadline surge towards the end.
Who knows really, your scenario is just as likely.
Also seems reasonable
But i think the Who Knows analysis works best thats why we watch the game isnt it?
Re: Carkner's knee surgery
He had surgery this morning and is out indefinitely and at least a month.
What does this mean for Rundblad? Having him sitting around for a month as a scratch is not a good option everyone would agree. So should we call up someone from Binghamton to be 7th guy?
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
make Kuba the 7th guy
What did he do in preseason to warrant a top spot? I know he has had a good past, but thats exactly what it was, the past.
Don't keep Rundblad just to be #7
It should be clear to Rundblad by now that it won’t take much for him to land in the line-up if he is patient and works his behind off in the AHL. So hopefully they don’t have to keep him sitting in the pressbox to prevent him from going to Sweden.
While I’d love to see Kuba in the pressbox at this point — even if it means thrusting both Cowen and Rundblad into the lineup — that ain’t this team’s M.O. in the past. Nor is it necessarily the best move in terms of maximizing a possible return for Kuba down the road. So unless the Paulrus has very different views on benching healthy vets, they should send Rundblad down.
by sensory_experience on Oct 3, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes me wish we still had Hale
I’d much prefer MechaKarlsson to be getting quality minutes in the AHL than sitting around waiting for Carks to get healthy.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Is Pro Hockey Talk schizophrenic?
Just last week they were saying the Sens could be sunk by mid season.
Didn't they still say that?
Saying they could push for a spot early on before fading?
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Different tone regarding the first half, IMO
Last week, it was all about how their schedule for the first half would put them in a hole too deep to climb out of. This week, it’s the back half that puts them in the hole.
The only thing they really agree on was they don’t see a late season rally to push for a spot.
by B_T on Oct 3, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Same writer
Though the earlier article was specifically focusing on the potential impact of each team’s schedule on their season.
by B_T on Oct 3, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Butler to the top 6
I don’t get it Butler needs to play with skilled forwards to have an impact and he is playing on the fourth line!!??
by fridgefullofmeat on Oct 3, 2011 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
I was wondering the same about that. It almost seems to me that Butler hasn’t impressed Paulrus and is already in the doghouse. That’s the problem with coaching changes I guess. Gains and trust you might have had with a previous coach are thrown entirely out the window. Obviously he has to earn your ice time, but it really felt like Butler turned a corner at the end of the season, so you kinda hate seeing him playing in the bottom 6 when he’s obviously got the instincts of a sniper out there.
Agreed.
Butler on the fourth line is a waste of his talent unfortunately. He is a high skill guy, not a grinder.
But who knows. Maybe with effort and a specialized role on the fourth he can flourish before being bumped up if they play line shuffle.
What was the last Stanley Cup team that really relied on a pure sniper for scoring? If the rest of his game isn’t at par I’d rather he learn to hustle on the 4th line than rack up lazy points on the top 6. Keep in mind, although we shouldn’t be trying to lose this season, winning shouldn’t take precedence over development.
by BD Rebuilders on Oct 3, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get it either
But it’s not like he had a shining preseason. MacLean can only go by what he’s seen, and Butler didn’t show him much.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I don't like it either
We all know the kid is only going to be effective if he plays alongside someone like Spezza (or Filatov?) on the top line. And yes there is obviously a reason why he is not there right now. I’m hoping that getting dumped to the 4th line will be a wake up call for him, and will motivate him to improve his play.
Also, Michalek looks like he's about to burst into tears in this photo
BUT HE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE LW TO MY RW! THE ROMEO TO MY JULIET! THE YIN FOR MY YANG!
by The Tif on Oct 3, 2011 2:18 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Defence/Goaltending
I still don’t get how outsides can be so negative. Is it just inertia form last year? It’s Anderson in nets, not Elliot. We have a legitimate starting goaltender, even if you can’t call him an elite #1. Alex Auld is a solid backup.
On defence, not only do we have some new talent, our young star is a year older, stronger and more experienced. We have new stars in the making and we have a core of experienced D-men who may not have their best years in front of them, but who can work within a functioning system so long as the forwards are involved and bought in.
Which brings me to the 3rd factor not seemingly considered: our new coach. We simply have to be not only a happier, more cohesive group, the system will be clear, well communicated, supported by targeted, professional practices and insisted upon by a guy they can all respect and get behind.
Goals against will be lower this year than last by at least 25. That’s what? a .3 GAA difference overall. The difference between Elliot and LeClaire was .36 while the difference between Elliot and Anderson – while he was with the Sens only – was 1.14 At that amount, goals against might be 225 which puts the team in the middle of the pack.
Goals for last year were around 192? No Alfie, poor attack, Spezza and Michalek injured for stretches, and we didn’t exactly trade away a ton of goals in the veterans we lost. something like 49 goals from Kovy, Kelly and Fisher. You have to think that bounce back years form Alfie, Spez and Mach9 could account for a good chunk of that. Plus there are Filatov, Butler, Mikachu, Foligno, Regin, Butler, Condra, Greening, etc… who have to score more than they did last year. Healthy, you have to think we are going to score 20 more goals this year than last, which would put them at 212 goals for or so.
Together, that puts the team at 212 for, 225 against. Not exactly playoff material, but not bottom of the league either. Are my rough guesses optimistic? Too conservative? There are lots of variables, like the youth not being able to grinad out a full 82 games as first liners. There are a few wonky knees and backs among our top players. Stil, in a competitive Division, while I think we’re in tough, I don’t think our stats are going to be anywhere near as bad as last year.
I sorta thought the same thing, but..
The math assumes that every other player on the ice maintains or outproduces their previous year (while all of the above mentioned players improve theirs) and that’s a statistical improbability. Despite how badly the team played last year, there were still players who continued with a historically accurate point production rate. Any year can be your bad year, I’m sure there will be a few guys on our team who will underperform this year compared to their average season.
That also being said… save%, goals for/against, other statistics don’t guarantee a playoff/successful season… Winning a third of your games 5-0 and then losing two-thirds by 0-1 is an extreme example of such, but that’s the gist of it.
The optimist in me thought the same thing as you did – until I read and re-read your post and realized there had to be a catch.
I’ve never seen the stat before, but I have to wonder what the statistics for overperformance and underperformance as an average. On any given team what is the likelihood of player performance. Is it 1/3 over, 1/3 average, and 1/3 under perform in a season? There almost has to be a metric for predicting over and underperformance.
true
but as you say, the rest of the team is more or less consistent with their track record. For the most part, our team last year blew a tire early on and just couldn’t recover. I’m factoring in a degree of bounce back overall based simply on the negatives being removed – no more strings of bad goals early in games, a system that the team buys into, a coach they believe in, overall chemistry improvements by removing certain distractions, etc… I’m combining gut instinct with soe statisitical generalizations and coming up with a team that is like the ones going in to our string of years withotu missing the playoffs: it has some veterans, some youthful stars in the making and a whole lot of potential. Will it be this year? Maybe not. I just think that they will be positive risk takers who sometimes completely blow it because of a lack of discipline, as opposed to the bunch of hapless, hopeless, defeated players they became towards the reboot.
It’s very easy for sports analysts to simply extrapolate success or failure to continue. They don’t watch and dissect our team the same way we do here. They only have outside perception. We didn’t make the playoffs 3 seasons ago and how many people picked us to not make the playoffs that next year? After we made the playoffs that year, I know there were a few who picked us to finish mid-pack and make the playoffs last year.
Nobody ever holds anyone accountable for preseason prognostication except if you were really wrong. Predicting a team to make the playoffs as a low seed, then missing nobody cares. Picking the Minnesota Wild to win the Stanley Cup, more than a few would probably remember your bad pick.
why let bobby-b languish on the 4th line?
i’d swap him and neil and give him some third line time…. but what do i know?
Foligno-Smith-Neil have shown good chemistry in the past. It makes sense to try them together again and see if they can rekindle that chemistry.
I am sure Butler will get himself going at some point. It is hard to say why he has looked so mediocre in training camp. Perhaps he is putting to much pressure on himself. A little time on a lower-end line might be useful to get him back to focusing on the basics. Usually when you start doing basic stuff well the rest of your game comes around.
Regin update
Apparently he is going to skate tomorrow, so lines might have been temporary tomorrow. If all others stay same, Condra – Konopka – Butler could become Condra – Regin – Butler (I am just guessing).
That could make a lot more sense.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I sure prefer Regin with those guys over Konopka
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I still don't understand Konopka's signing
I can see him being used to keep the other teams honest from beating up on Ottawa’s young players. Aside from that and his decent faceoff %, why when we have more than enough centers? And we have Carkner, Neil and Smith.
Konopka is a depth guy who can be sat in the press box when necessary, but who has identifiable skills when called upon. He isn’t that expensive and you don’t have to worry about stunting his development by sitting him (like you would if you replace him with an extra prospect). Personally, I am neutral towards the signing, but it does have some logic to it.
Hold the phone
After Eugene Melnyk, I can’t think of someone more guaranteed of a spot in the Senators future than Erik Karlsson
Two words: DANIEL ALFREDSSON
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I was talking about the future
Alfie’s 38, won’t be around much longer.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Maybe not as a player but that doesn't mean he's not part of the future
But I’d say he’s more guaranteed to be part of the future than either Melnyk or Karlsson.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
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