Silver Nuggets: What is Kaspars Daugavins offensive potential?
by Adnan on Oct 27, 2011 1:13 PM EDT
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PrintKaspars Daugavins was called up to the Ottawa Senators for the 3-2 win over the Carolina Hurricanes. It was only his second career NHL game but he has played 189 AHL games. He had 54 points in 73 games last season (0.74 points per game), which was a better point per game total than Bobby Butler had in the AHL last season. But the question is, if Daugavins gets a real shot in the NHL this season, how good can be offensively?
Gabe Desjardins measured something called NHL Equivalence back in 2005. Basically it calculated the difficulty factor of each league by taking a player's NHL point per game total and dividing it by their point per game total in another league in the prior season. As an example, if Mika Zibanejad scores 1 point per game in the Elitserien this season, and scored 0.5 points per game in the NHL next season, then Zibanejad's contribution to the Elitserien index is 0.5. The problem with this index is it was last updated in 2005 and included all players, including defencemen.
Scott Reynolds over at Copper and Blue improved on this by updating it in July 2010 for seasons between 2006-2007 and 2009-2010, considering only forwards and breaking it down by age. Age is important because it differentiates players that are still improving and players that are career minor leaguers, such as Corey Locke.
Daugavins was 22 at the start of last season and now he is 23, which has 20 data points to use for the analysis. The median NHL Equivalence factor is 0.425, with the highest at 0.93 and the lowest being 0.17. For Daugavins, the median NHL Equivalence results in a point per game total of 0.3145, with a maximum of 0.6882 and a minimum of 0.1258 points per game. Assuming Daugavins plays all of the remaining Senators game for a total of 74 games, the median results in 23 points, with a maximum of 51 points and a minimum of 9 points. As an aside, using an NCAA Equivalence for 21-year olds, this would project Stéphane Da Costa (1.36 points per game last year) at 52 points with a maximum of 78 points and a minimum of 25 points over 82 NHL games this season. The sample size for the NCAA is a lot smaller though.
It is extremely unlikely Daugavins plays any where near 74 games. However, a 23 point rookie season plus being a useful penalty killer, might make for a good season for Daugavins if he sticks.
Before the links, just wanted to mention again if you want tickets to see the Senators and Panthers on 22 December, check this post and email me.
Tonight's game
- Game preview. (Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra)
- The professionals all pick the Panthers tonight while all the bloggers are going with the Senators. Peter is saying a 6-3 Senators win! (Senators Extra)
- Lines for tonight are: 1) Greening-Spezza-Michalek, 2) Foligno-Da Costa-Alfredsson, 3) Daugavins-Smith-Neil, 4) Condra-Konopka-Winchester. (James Gordon)
- Mika Zibanejad's decision was largely (I hope) based on improvements needed in his play, but Wayne Scanlan feels saving Eugene Melnyk a million dollars this season and delaying free agency by a year also played into it. In the end, everyone at the clubs feels, or at least says, it was the right decision. As Daniel Alfredsson says, he wasn't even playing in the top division in Sweden at age 18. (Ottawa Citizen)
- Here are some quotes from Bryan Murray and Paul MacLean regarding the decision. MacLean admits he wanted to keep Zibanejad but agrees it was the right decision. (Senators Extra)
- Mika Zibanejad talks to the media after learning of being sent back to Sweden. My God, is this guy soft spoken or what? Can barely hear him sometimes! He seems to be taking the news with a positive attitude though. (Ottawa Senators)
- On the other hand, Zibanejad refuses to go home. He was at practice this morning. Must have been talking to the great King Robin of Gothenburg. (Ian Mendes)
- Bruce Garrioch finds Zibanejad to be classy for talking to the media. Then Garrioch takes another shot at Brian Elliott for not talking to him. (Bruce Garrioch)
- Ian Mendes is more gracious to Elliott though. Elliott has now won 4 in a row. (Ian Mendes)
- Daniel Alfredsson will return tonight. He feels good but isn't sure if this will become a lingering problem. (Ottawa Sun)
- Some bad news on the injury front, Peter Regin will be out between 6-8 weeks. He opted not to go for a surgery, but instead will undergo rehab. (Ian Mendes)
- David Rundblad and I have one thing in common: apparently we both like to blog. We don't have the same tastes in Halloween costumes though. Rundblad, along with Erik Karlsson and Mika Zibanejad dressed up as members of Kiss. Oh my. (David Rundblad)
- Here is the translation of the above. I want to know which player dressed up as Osama! (The 6th Sens)
- Don't shy away from picking guys from the high flying Ottawa Senators in your fantasy leagues! (CBC)
- Dmitry Kulikov will play against his childhood hero tonight, Sergei Gonchar. According to Kulikov's teammate Brian Campbell, Kulikov reminds him a lot of Gonchar. (Sun Sentinel)
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Why no general NHL links today?
There’s a great video of Chara and some other Bruins dressing up in costume and visiting hospitalized kids plus Hiller has an amazing Movember goalie mask.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Ha yeah I saw that
I don’t always bother putting general hockey links in, usually only when I feel like doing it or if I have time.
I am lazy like that. ;)
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
But these ones were so good!
Even my Habs-fan friends admitted that the Bruins video was adorable.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
This reads like the worst "Most Interesting Man in the World" commercial ever
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 27, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
This reminds me, yesterday my brother tweeted me this
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Oct 27, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm glad Elliott is getting this shot in St. Louis.
I just hope that he isn’t put into a position (having to play the majority of the games) where he might not succeed. I would like to see him stick around the NHL as a capable back up.
Don't they still have Halak in St Louis?
He’ll draw all of the negativity for not living up to expectations.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
oh man
i would be SOO happy for elliott to win the cup… that would actually make my year complete (if, of course, ottawa has no chance to win come playoffs). then he could dedicate it to garrioch. and laugh. and we can all laugh at that piece of shit assmonkey fa…. oops got carried away.
Hey, why'd you stop?
You really had a good thing going there ;)
by Pmoron on Oct 27, 2011 7:21 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
I totally sang that song at karaoke last night, it was awesome. I should have sent out a dedication.
by modsuperstar on Oct 27, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually I should say I sang Rooster by Alice In Chains.
by modsuperstar on Oct 27, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought it was
“MY NAME IS KASPARS!” “YEAH!”
“THEY CALL ME ROOSTER!” “YEAH!”
“I LIKE TO SCORE!” “YEAH!”
“AND I LIKE TO WIN!”
“B-B-B. B B SENS!”
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
by Nightbreak on Oct 27, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Well, I just rewatched that clip.
He uses his last name “DAUGAVINS!” rather than “KASPARS”.
but other than that, I was spot on. :D
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
... And the rest of my sentence was lost.
He used DAUGAVINS rather than KASPAR, but otherwise I was spot on.
A Goal Horn Haiku
Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto
I really don't want to know who dressed up as Osama
That’s pretty questionable taste. I’m happy being blissfully ignorant of who did it so I don’t have to potentially think less of a player I liked.
Oh, and it should be “David Rundblad and I”, not “Me and David Rundblad.”
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Just trying to be helpful!
Just because it’s the internet doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have good grammar.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I was going to make that change
Then I forgot. I’ll do it now.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 27, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Zibanejad looks like the most physically mature of the three
Other than Rundblad’s ridiculously hairy arms.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 27, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Halloween is all about bad taste. I once had a friend come to my halloween party as Steve Irwin, a week after he died. The costume came complete with stingray barb to the heart. Zombie Osama is alright by me.
by modsuperstar on Oct 27, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Well there's dressing up as someone who's dead, and then there's dressing up as a dead person who is responsible for thousands of murders.
Dress up in honour of Amy Winehouse if you want, but dressing up as Hitler is never okay.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
With all due respect for Scanlan (which is not all that much)
I doubt money factored in to that decision. If everyone had felt that Zibby was ready and belonged here this year, there’s no question they would have kept him even though that would have meant he becomes a FA a year sooner. How on earth do you get paid to write sports analysis when you have that little understanding of how this kind of decision is made? I could have understood idle speculation on here about it, but geez.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Talk about putting the dish, back in Swedish
That was some interesting blogging by Rundblad. Good to hear the youngsters have developed such a close bond, hopefully that means they’ll stick around for years to come.
We should start building Scandinavian themed clubs in ottawa, lest they get be whisked away to Detroits influential Scandinavian disco subculture.
Also, why was a gf doing the makeup? Where was Alfie? He should be watching over them at all times, getting them ready for halloween and taking pictures.
by BD Rebuilders on Oct 27, 2011 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd!
“Time for da trick or treats mine kinder!” – Alfie daddy daycare
How is anyone supposed to top Sterling Snakehouse?
by worsteverything on Oct 27, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
is it, though?
as an adjective wet describes the state of something being moistened, covered in, or soaked with water or another liquid.. is water covered in water? as a noun wet refers to something that makes stuff covered in liquid (haaaaa)
seems like a weird thought to me when i think about it too much…
Water is definitely covered in water
Whereas Garrioch is filled with antipathy.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 27, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
how pathetic
because what really matters is not that a struggling goalie seems be resurrecting his career but that he forgot to say “Goodbye” to Brucie on his way out the door.
Regarding Regin
Has anyone else ever noticed that “opting for rehab instead of surgery” always leads to 6-8 weeks of rehab, followed by 3 games of play, followed by surgery and season-ending IR?
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 27, 2011 2:43 PM EDT reply actions
What has me worried is the multiple medical opinions
I suspect that the first medical opinion was “needs surgery.”
Oh Captain, my Captain!
It sounds that way
I don’t anticipate seeing a whole lot of Mr. Regin this year.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 27, 2011 2:51 PM EDT reply actions
I need to stop trying to reply to the last message on the board
I invariably start a new thread.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 27, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe the technical term is "premature discussion splitting"
by B_T on Oct 27, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, with premature discussion splitting, it ends up getting everywhere
It’s a real mess.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 28, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
To west-sider: neither
Clearly you start a new one.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
yes
Though that’s not unusual after the considerable refractory period.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 27, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Kaspars's song is awesome.
As for his potential offensive output, a lot depends on how much time he gets on the top lines or power play.
fluidity in the top lines
you know, what’s really unfortunate is that it’s starting to look like we’re really just one clear 2nd line center from having a competitive team. Mind you, enough of our key guys have a significant enough injury history (Michalek, Spezz, Alfie) that it wouldn’t take the whole thing off the rails.
We're probably a bit further than that
Aside from the fact that depth is a necessary part of a competitive team (as you acknowledge), I think we’re just not there yet.
The team lacks the experience for consistent play, which is pretty important, and we’re probably too defensively frail. The PK is not what it used to be either, which is a significant factor over the course of a season.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 27, 2011 5:20 PM EDT reply actions
remains to be seen how much experience will be enough
As has been pointed out before, we’re not Edmonton where there is a lack of veteran leadership (and genuinely talented veteran leadership at that). I think we have enough toughness spread through our line-up as well to protect some of the younger guys. Is there any reason to believe that Rundblad and Cowen’s developmental curve will be any worse than Karlsson’s? If not, with a mobile and creative back end, and if Anderson settles back in… it could just be a question of that no.2 center.
Kyle Turris would be a decent 2nd line centre....?
does anyone have an opinion?
Go luck yourself.
by ottawachiefsfan on Oct 27, 2011 5:46 PM EDT reply actions
I wouldn't mind
Not sure what his asking price would be, or that he’s even available. I think Maloney is sticking to the “we’re not trading him” philosophy.
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