Silver Nuggets: Can Sergei Gonchar have a bounce-back season?
by Adnan on Oct 26, 2011 1:00 PM EDT
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PrintBefore the start of the season, DaveYoung and yours truly picked Sergei Gonchar to have a bounce-back season for the Senators. After the first couple of games, that looked insane. However, Gonchar has picked up his play and has now passed Daniel Alfredsson in the team scoring race, sitting fourth with 6 points. He's also averaged over 21 minutes of ice time if you discount the game against the Washington Capitals that he was forced to leave after the first period.
Gonchar is looking more and more comfortable with Jared Cowen and the stability in the pairings has coincided with some improved defensive play by the Senators (and admittedly weaker opponents). The Senators currently have the #1 ranked power play in the NHL at 31.2%. To judge Gonchar's importance to the power play, the one game the Senators played without Gonchar, the power play looked awful and went 0 for 5 against Philadelphia. Since his return, the power play has gone for 4 for 7, including a perfect 3 for 3 in the last two games. In fact, in the eight games Gonchar has played, the power play is an incredible 37%.
That's not to say every power play goal has been because of Sergei Gonchar, but the improvement since his return was pretty obvious to me. Gonchar hasn't been perfect, the miscommuncation between him, Craig Anderson and Jared Cowen last night was pretty bad. Overall though, I think Gonchar has been a very good player for the Senators in the last six games. For what it is worth, Gonchar is currently on pace for 0 goals and 61 assists if he plays 81 games. He is unlikely to hit 61 points, but count me as one who would rather Gonchar not get traded this season.
I hope he gets a nice cheer from the crowd tomorrow night.
Links after the jump.
Last game
- Game recap. (Silver Seven, Ottawa Sun, Senators Extra)
- Stats from NHL.com [Boxscore] [Game summary] [Face-offs] [Play by play] [Ice time]
- Advanced stats from TimeOnIce.com, the one interesting thing I saw was that Jared Cowen was only put out for 1 defensive zone face-off and David Rundblad was put out for 7 of them. Also, it is tougher to do match-ups on the road, but Kuba/Karlsson pairing played against the Eric Staal line more than any other. I've been really impressed by Kuba this season. [Corsi Ratings] [Head-to-head ice time] [Zone starts]
- Paul MacLean was one of the first players to start wearing a visor. Jared Cowen has always worn one. However, Filip Kuba doesn't wear one with the Senators, and found it difficult to wear one at the Olympics where it is mandatory. (Senators Extra)
- Just in case you want more opinions on the Mika Zibanejad stay-or-go debate, here are a couple more. Nichols wonders if the decision being delayed to the weekend would mean that there are diverging opinions. I would guess Bryan Murray wants to send him back and Paul MacLean wants to keep him. (The 6th Sens, Ottawa Sun)
- Alexei Yashin's wife, Carol Alt, would like to retire in Ottawa after Yashin's career is over. Alt, a supermodel who eats raw meat, finds Ottawa to be just the right amount of boring. (Ottawa Citizen)
- Is Jason Spezza becoming relevant in fantasy hockey again? He's currently tied for second in the NHL in points. Chris Neil is also having a good fantasy start for leagues with penalty minutes, currently on pace to tie the league record for penalty minutes. (Sports Illustrated)
- I might have linked to this article already, but I just noticed the Citizen is using "Paulrus". We coined that right? (Ottawa Citizen)
- Matt Puempel and Jean-Gabriel Pageau have been named to the OHL and QMJHL teams respectively to face the Russian U20 team. (Ottawa Citizen)
- Daniel Alfredsson returned to practice today and skated with Mika Zibanejad and Nick Foligno. Zibanejad's presence doesn't necessarily mean he plays tomorrow, as Murray has hinted he might not decide until the weekend. (Brent Wallace)
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Yes!
Thank you Gonchar for starting to make us look better! I thought, even aside from the powerplay last night, that Gonchar made really smart decisions with the puck, and moved it effectively. Looks like (hopefully!) the first couple games were a blip on the radar.
I echo the Cheer remark
I will be adding my lusty huzzahs when his name is announced tomorrow night. That classless booing the first game was unworthy of a grown up city.
by Be_rad on Oct 26, 2011 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Glad to see Gonchar bouncing back
He has looked pretty good to me in the last few games. I am glad to see it. I’d be surprised if there was a lot of demand for him on the trade market this year(due to his contract still having a year to run after this year), so I think it is safe to assume he will be here all year. Hopefully, he keeps up his improved form. I randomly guessed he’ll score 40-44 points based on the assumption that he will probably miss some games as the season wears on.
I guess I meant I wouldn’t even try to shop him around. There’s still a lot Karlsson and Rundblad can learn on the power play with Gonchar.
Besides, Kuba is definitely going to be traded and there is only really Lee we have to get back in. Karlsson/Lee could work. I wouldn’t expect Carkner to be re-signed either.
Now if someone gives us a 1st round pick for Gonchar, that’s a different story.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I wouldn't be opposed to a deadline trade
If he can have a good season – one in which he greatly appreciates in value – then I’d be okay with a deadline deal for good value. Karlsson would have played a couple years with him, and Rundblad for most of a season. That should be enough for some tricks to have rubbed off.
I suppose the ideal situation is a good year this year and a great year next year when he’s in the final year of his contract (right?). Then we could probably move him more easily.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You can always trade him next year and if you trade both Kuba and Gonchar for picks, who will replace them? Lee sure, but I wouldn’t have Carkner out there instead of Gonchar.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Yeah, Carkner doesn't have Gonch's skill set
I guess Rundblad could replace him, but that’s opening ourselves to a lot of growing pains.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Karlsson and Cowen? Runblad?
I do hear you. But I’d rather have a bunch of draft picks and prospects and a losing team this year.
While I’m not specifically advocating “Fail for Nail”, if we could trade Kuba and Gonchar for a bunch of picks at the expense of slipping down the table a bit, it probably only makes things sunnier down the road.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess if Gonchar is playing really well, we might even get a little bit more for him if we trade him this year as he won’t strictly be a rental.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I was thinking most teams might prefer a rental.
The payout might not actually be higher if the market for him is smaller and a team is annoyed about having to absorb his salary over the final year of his contract.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Aren't you still thinking short term?
We’re still in a rebuild. Eking out wins against Columbus and Carolina does not mean we should consider the rebuild over. Short term it might leave us with shoddy D, but long-term the picks will be good.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
To play devil's advocate...
I suppose you could argue that for the young guys to develop into a winner the team needs to be sufficiently good and have a certain number of experienced players.
If you don’t meet that threshold there’s a danger that you’ve got a lot of young guys spinning their wheels in the basement of the league.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
True
But I don’t think we have so many guys who are so young that we’re at risk of that. Even if we trade Kuba and Gonchar, we’re left with Phillips on D (and Karlsson’s not exactly a rookie either, although I wouldn’t call him a veteran) plus Alfie, Spezza, Neil and Michalek up front providing guidance.
I just think one year into our rebuild is way to soon to change course. Two years maybe, but the rebuild’s not done yet.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I agree with you.
And I’m in favour of trading old players for picks or prospects. Particularly Gonchar and Kuba (despite their recent improvements).
But while the rebuild is DEFINITELY still in progress, I think they’ll have to carefully walk the fine line between developing as much young talent as possible and maintaining an environment in which those players are developed as well and quickly as possible.
And while it pains me so much to say it, Papa Alfie isn’t going to be here forever. And Chris Neil’s probably not going to be either.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh for sure
We can’t trade all of those guys and we can’t expect half of them to be around 2+ years from now. I was just responding to your devil’s advocate argument that we need some veterans to mentor the kids. By the time Alfie/Phillips/Neil are gone, Spezza and Karlsson will fit that role, and hopefully Michalek will still be around. And we’ll see if any of the other older-but-new-to-our-roster guys fill that role too.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Was thinking along the same line
how thin we are up front in experience esp when Alfie stops playing (as early as next season) and the back end as well should Gonchar not be with the team next season. But then not all the young kids will stick either. I can see us plugging the holes with appropriate veteran UFAs when the time arrives. It’s part of the reason BM is spending near the cap floor right now isn’t it?
by whatsinaname on Oct 26, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't say that we're thin up front if Alfie retires after this season.
Spezza is here until 2014-2015 at least, Michalek until 2013-2014, and Neil is here until the end of next season. That’s lots of time for someone like Butler or Filatov or Greening to step up as a leader.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Foligno?
Please Nicky, please step up.
He seems like a likeable guy, works hard and in the corners. I spend every one of his shifts wishing that he could just pull it all together.
I feel like he and Regin could make the difference of a couple years on our rebuild if they can both perform to potential. But I feel like Foligno could be a team leader as well as a key player.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah that guy
But we’ll see. Foligno has yet to consistently play well and Regin needs to be healthy (not off to a great start on that one). But yeah, either of them also have the potential.
Plus I know it might sound like I’m being a fangirl, but even Winchester has the potential (if he stays) to turn into a bottom-6 leadership guy like Neil.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I absolutely agree with you on this one.
Seeing Winchester back has been great. I’ve always liked the way he plays, and he seems like a great fit for the new team dynamic. I can see him wearing an A soon enough.
by Pmoron on Oct 26, 2011 7:32 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
I thought Gonchar might be worth a 1st-round pick to the right team at the deadline this year
I was imagining Detroit, but now that they have Ian White that’s not likely.
I don't see the harm in shopping him
If we manage to get really good deals for him and Kuba, then re-sign Carkner for a year or two and re-evaluate. If we don’t find a good enough deal for Gonchar, then no harm no foul.
I agree that he’s playing well lately and that he’s a good influence to have, but I don’t think he’s so hands-down amazing that we shouldn’t shop him. Keep in mind we’re still in rebuild mode and he’s starting to look like one of few assets we have that a) could actually be valuable, and b) we can stand to lose. I’m not saying take any deal to clear the space, but see what’s being offered.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
Yeah agreed. I guess I meant to say we shouldn’t be looking to dump him for the highest bidder. We’ll be shopping Kuba to the highest bidder as there is no chance he re-signs.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Sure
But even with Kuba I wouldn’t say we’re Kovalev-desperate. If he keeps playing well, I’d be okay with having him finish out the season playing well for us than trade him for a bag of pucks. Of course, that assumes Kuba manages a healthy and consistent season, which is a big if.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
it’s not like Sergei forgot he has world-class talent, it’s more likely his new pairing and plethora of new faces took time to work out. The main problem the consensus had was his effort at the beginning of the season. Clearly he’s cranked it up a bit (but he’s never played with much panic).
I hope there’s a solid cheer for him tomorrow night too. Even grown men need a little pat on the back once in a while.
will someone pat me on the back?
Are you asking me or are you telling me?
You're an expert?
So you're an expert?
So you saw it...you're saying you saw it on the...you're an expert?
You're not an expert.
Mount Andy Sutton - Erik Karlsson's greatest partner ever.
Some Murray comments
“He was playing to survive and not make mistakes.” – Murray
Murray asked Alfredsson to have a talk with Zibanejad after the news was broken to him.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Murray's description was so bang on.
As much as I wanted him to stay, it was getting more and more difficult to justify when his play was so tentative.
by whatsinaname on Oct 26, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I love that we had Alfie talk with him
I love Alfie so much.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
He'll be okay.
The girls are very pretty, and now he’s an NHL player.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
He's only 18 and should not have expected to stay in the first team...
I am sure he will be fine and Sweden will be good for him!
by Los Blancos Chicca on Oct 26, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting that Rundblad was out for so many defensive zone face-offs
And Cowen not; then again, their defensive partners may have had something to do with that, too.
Ya. This one is 100% Chris Phillips.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
He totally described my version of the communication!
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Thats why you own the recaps Mr. Parisi
You can hear things no one else can!
I'll also add
that Rundblad has impressed me immensely. He’s not overly physical but he doesn’t lose alot of battles. He’s great at using his body to shield the puck/defender. He clearly has a couple speeds too. He caught Skinner from 5 feet back down the wing (and then tackled him…). He’s getting better every game. I wouldn’t, however, be opposed to a little “Karlssoning” in Bingo. #65 was a different player after his stint and I’m sure Rundblad would improve. Go down, play 25 minutes a game, puts some ‘pucks in da back of de net’ and come back up.
The future sure looks bright.
now..if only ZSmith would start giving a crap…
Are you asking me or are you telling me?
You're an expert?
So you're an expert?
So you saw it...you're saying you saw it on the...you're an expert?
You're not an expert.
Mount Andy Sutton - Erik Karlsson's greatest partner ever.
Had a few great rushes last night.
Particularly the one where he put it right through the crease in the second period.
Actually, that play was doubly nice because it was set up by terrific work on the boards by Foligno.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
We'll need to get blue shirts first
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
There were about 3 events in the world of sports yesterday
And what, 1 in Canada?
A few more nights like that and they’d be interviewing 2012 Olympians just to fill the hour.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
9 NHL games
CFL news, standard “day off” talk regarding the World Series….
Wasn’t the busiest day in sporting news, but above average for most of the NHL season.
Please stop being reasonable
I’m trying to feel oppressed by the Toronto media.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a fan
The more I watch him, the more it’s obvious he has the talent to succeed. It’s only a matter of learning now, and between Paul MacLean and Kurt Kleinendorst, I think we have that covered no matter where he plays.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Just mentioning speed, did anyone catch that rush by Karlsson in OT. I know it didn’t amount to anything, but just seeing him accelerate past the blueline and kick it up about 4 gears was pretty amazing. And this with legs that spent 27 minutes on the ice throughout the game.
by modsuperstar on Oct 26, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty good timing too
After phillips, rundblad, zibby and michalek had gotten stuck in our end with no legs left for about a minute and a half.
It was sqeaky-bum time, as the English would say.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve only heard Sir Alex Ferguson say that, and he’s Scottish. ;)
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
And an old drunk.
But it’s England’s most popular expression every two years. For some reason it gets used constantly in association with world cup and euro knockout stages, but never in relation to club football.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s always used in relation to club football! He says it when the season gets interesting, as the league race tightens, etc!
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Maybe Old Whiskey Nose does
But generally it seems to be the most relished part of internationals for the English. Like getting out the Christmas ornaments.
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I am going to guess you don’t support Manchester United Football Club. :(
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
No more than I support the Yankees, Leafs, or Cowboys.
But this is a dangerous stream of conversation for someone taping this afternoon’s league cup matches…
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Paulrus
In case no one noticed my link, the Citizen is using “Paulrus”. We started that right?
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Oct 26, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I noticed!
I just didn’t have a definitive answer. I * think * so though
Started Senate Reform too...
Main Stream Media: Ripping Off Those Goodlooking Chaps at Siver Seven Instead of Making Up Our Own Witticisms.
Next thing you know, Scanlan will be writing about how Zmith don’t give a crap.
by DaveYoung on Oct 26, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We totally came up with that. The original thread where we said he looked like Wilford Brimley
And then put up pictures of the Walrus he resembles.
We went through a few names – Bristles, Dr MacBristles, Diabeetus, and then settled on Paulrus Maclean.
Source: http://www.silversevensens.com/2011/6/13/2221788/senators-to-name-paul-maclean-head-coach
But I’m happy if it picks up. I just hope I get remembered as the nickname genius I obviously am.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 27, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
History lesson
Before we get ahead of ourselves in thinking Gonchar is back, I will remind you that last year Gonchar got off to a slow start as well, then had a good game in Game 7 against Buffalo, then in game 12 against the Leafs.
http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxscores/201010220BUF.html
http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxscores/201011020TOR.html
Now I mention this because I remember making a comment on this site giving Murray his due for signing Gonchar, as essentially he and Karlsson had their breakout game of the season. It looked like his crazy plan of stacking up offensive d-men might just pay off. Instead they proved to be high water marks for Gonchar over the course of the season as the Sens began to sputter in December. Then we spent a good portion of the season cursing Murray for signing Gonchar in the first place.
I’m not saying the same thing will happen, but I think we should temper our expectations before proclaiming he’s back to 2003 form.
Good point!
I guess I just felt some Gonchar love was needed after a few good performances. Maybe he’ll google himself and feel happy! ;)
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I find I need to temper my own expectations of the team this year. After going through the rollercoaster that was last year I know things can really go off a cliff with just one Kris Letang boarding check. It’s so easy to get caught up in a winning streak when things are going well, but we also know from last year that 10 game losing streaks can happen even easier than patented 11 game winning streaks.
by modsuperstar on Oct 26, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah it’s best not to get disappointed if things go wrong, but I am still quietly optimistic a blind homer. :D
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
it is what it is
3 wins against middling teams. However there was the great effort against Washington too. I guess what is nice to see is the way they were won (come from behind, solid efforts to hold on then get the win, etc). The only thing that does concern me a bit though re the sustainability of this ‘winning’ is goaltending. I hope Auld gets a game soon and shows a return to form and we get to see Anderson steal a game for us. Otherwise, I feel like the multi-game slide isn’t far behind us.
by west-sider on Oct 26, 2011 2:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not even middling
Columbus had a ridiculously bad start, Winnipeg is worse than us in the standings, and Carolina has made the playoffs once in the last 5 years. You can maybe call Carolina “middling” but Winnipeg and Columbus are the bottom of the barrel.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
I think Columbus played like the team that was expected though (which was middling)
And not like a team that was winless in 7. There were signs of a bounce-back starting in Ottawa game.
Scary thing about the Colombus game was
we had to to score two goals to win in the last seconds of the game with the help of a Power play.
by whatsinaname on Oct 26, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
That check
Still makes me angry. I’ve gotten over some of the small-market-paranoia-related anger, but I still can’t believe that was 2 minutes. 2 minutes!
by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 26, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
No one's saying that
But he’s also had more than 2 good games and there wasn’t a 4-game pause in between his good performances.
Oh Captain, my Captain!
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