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Secondary scoring still a concern for Sens

For many years, the Senators were called a one-line team, as it seemed only the top-line could consistently put pucks in the net. Although it's early in the season, it's looking like that label may still be applicable. Here's a look at the Senators' goal scorers through eight games:

Sensstats_medium

Obviously, Michalek and Spezza are in a league of their own for points amongst Senators' forwards with 43% of the goals scored. Add in Daniel Alfredsson (who is not normally a part of the top line, but is the third in points among forwards), and you have 57% of the Senators' goals. As a pie-chart, it's something like this:

Sensgoals_medium

It's not as dire as some other teams (the Leafs' top three have 65% of their goals, for example), but it's certainly worrisome. What makes this even more worrisome? Michalek and Spezza simply can't continue to score like this.

Star-divide

Milan Michalek's six goals are an anomaly. Most people have credited the goals to him finally being healthy, when they are far more attributable to luck. Michalek's shooting percentage -- which indicates what percentage of shots the player scores on --  is an absurd 25% so far this season. By comparison, his career average is 12.3%. Jason Spezza currently holds a shooting percentage of 16%, despite his career shooting percentage is 14.4%.

While it is possible that Spezza could maintain a shooting percentage around 15% or 16% (in 2007-08, he shot 16.2%, and in 06-07, he had an astounding 21%), it's far more likely that he'll regress back to his career average. Similarly, Milan Michalek's hot streak -- though fun at the moment -- is going to start to cool down any minute now.

Once these two cool down, who will be there to pick up the slack? It's something that has to be at the back of Paul MacLean's mind.

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Age old debate

Do you put your best players together? This is an age old debate among the coaching fraternity at any level of hockey. Most coaches put the best players together for a team’s Power Play, and if they produce really well, they want to keep them together.

Unfortunately, the mere choosing of these players sends a loud message to the entire team that creates a hierarchy and the egos involved keep the “lesser” players from getting out of their box of mediocrity (scoring-wise).

It often happens that when a new player is acquired and added to a top line, the player steps up to the expectation level and becomes what his coach envisions. The player that most comes to mind is Matt Moulson who was no superstar in Junior and then he’s put on the top line and wow!!!

For me as a former coach, I look at it like this. Any bum can put the team’s best players together. A great coach creates a team brimming with confidence from one end to another, and then all the lines produce, not equally but enough to win. A one line team is really easy to beat with good coaching, especially in the playoffs.

The teams that win the cup are the ones whose 3rd and 4th lines shine. For a great coach, the regular season is the preparation for these lines to soar when it really counts in the playoffs.

We won’t make the playoffs, but the principles still remain the same. We won’t win very many games with three players producing 50% of the scoring. Yeah we can beat the Blue Jackets this way but what about the better teams? They shut down out top line and then just pick us apart like vultures. Sooner or later teams will figure out how to shut these players down, and if we don’t have the secondary scoring the losses will mount.

It’s almost human nature for a team with it’s top three players playing together to wait for those players to produce in any given game… even if they don’t do it consciously… the hierarchy is already setup with the salaries. So this is the kind of ego stuff that any coach has to deal with when he starts putting lines together and doaling out ice time.

I prefer to see a team that spreads out the goal scoring and concentrates on building secondary scoring over time. If a coach challenges his best players to turn prospects, so called “lesser players” into stars by playing with them, they will do that more often than not. Just about everyone of these players has scored goals in their careers so they are capable… it just becomes about managing what they have between their ears… what people call their confidence levels.

by Marvellous on Oct 24, 2011 8:53 AM EDT reply actions  

Good points

Another thing I would add is that to get scoring out of a line you don’t always want to put three scorers together. The classic trio of grinder(puck retriever), playmaker, sniper seems to be the most effective and unstoppable combination. In the Alfie, Spezza, Heatley days you had Alfie intercepting passes or digging the puck out of the corner, and then Spezza setting him or Heatley up. There are myriad other examples.

Slightly off topic : From a salary cap management perspective, having good secondary scoring is tough in the NHL. You lock up your first liners, but your secondary scorers either have to be overpaid or they go to another team as free agents and become primary guys. Also, say a guy like Greening can score 50 points playing with Spezza or 30 points playing with Z. Smith. If you play him with Spezza then all of sudden you are paying him a lot more despite him having basically the same natural ability regardless of the line.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, let's compare our best time: 2007

We know Heatley, Alfie & Spezza did well, but we went three rounds in the playoffs before getting shut down by the damn Ducks. Who scored then?

A Goal Horn Haiku

Hoooonk hoooonk honk honk hooooonk
That's the sound the train horn makes
Suck it, Toronto

by Nightbreak on Oct 24, 2011 9:07 AM EDT reply actions  

The Ducks did :)

seriously though, I’ve got: Fisher (2), Redden (1), Neil (1), Alfredsson (4), McAmmond(1), Volchenkov (1), Heatley (1)

by Ibanez_Guy on Oct 24, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

That Anton goal was awesome. Sneaking in and such.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 24, 2011 9:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Alfredsson was God-like in that series.

That shorty he scored in Game 5 is one of my favorite Alfie memories. He scored that goal by sheer will.

Shawn McEachern: The best Senator to ever wear 15.

by Speedy_McEachern on Oct 24, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting

Questions

  • Did this increase the pace of scoring or compensate for lower scoring from the other lines?
  • Did everyone’s the top lines step up their game in the playoffs?
  • Did playoff bound teams have consistently higher production from their top line throughout the season?
  • What is the statistical difference in first line productivity of non playoff, playoff and conference final teams?

It would be interesting to see if there is a consistent pattern going back to the lockout.
I’m not a spreadsheet guy but If anyone can direct me to the raw data I would be willing to spend some time on this.

by anothersensfan on Oct 25, 2011 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Our G/G went from 3.49 in the regular season to 2.95 in the playoffs

Heatley went from .61 to .35
Spezza went from .51 to .35
Alfie jumped from .38 to .7

So scoring overall was down, and Alfie was the only one of the top 3 who increased his pace.

Secondary scoring production increased from:

Anton Volchenkov (0.01 to 0.1) – he actually scored twice as many goals in the playoffs as the regular season
Dean McAmmond (0.17 to 0.28)
Tom Preissing (0.09 to 0.1)
Wade Redden (0.11 to 0.15)

Everyone else was down. Notable drops (other than Heatley and Spezza) were:

Antoine Vermette (0.25 to 0.1)
Mike Comrie (0.31 to 0.1)
Patrick Eaves (0.19 to 0)
Oleg Saprykin (0.21 to 0.07)

I use http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm and http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm for all of this. I haven’t found a more convenient source of data for it.

by B_T on Oct 25, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

You are right, it is very unlikely Michalek keeps up that kind of shooting percentage. I would like to see the top line generate more shots/scoring chances as that will translate to more goals over the long than keeping up a high shooting percentage.

On the other hand, the players that aren’t performing well, are they well below their career shooting percentage? You have to expect a little bump from that.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 24, 2011 9:22 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Probably not because Michalek and Spezza take more shots than the other players. So a drop in shooting percentage would result offset more goals than an equivalent rise in shooting percentage from the lesser skilled.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 24, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

That is not good news

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 24, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Excluding the top 3

But limiting it to the 9 players with (A) 1+ shots per game, and (B) not rookies, we’re down a total of 1 goal every 11 games (combined) compared to career averages.

by B_T on Oct 24, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is there an easy way to compare this with other teams in the league?

57% really means nothing out of context. If other teams have a percentage closer to 25%, then the interpretation of that is very different to if the league average was 60% for example.

by The Tif on Oct 24, 2011 9:50 AM EDT reply actions  

I meant to do something like what you suggested, but I never got around to it. It certainly would have benefited the piece.

Co-manager, Silver Seven

by DarrenM on Oct 24, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

That’s awesome thanks!

I’d be interested to see how that pans out over the year. Once teams see more tape of Kessel for example, you’d expect Toronto’s success to plummet – same as what we saw with the Pizza line. Washington and Detroit are interesting though – both super low and very competitive as a result.

by The Tif on Oct 24, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I could pull the numbers for last year

But I suspect you’re more interested in early season numbers vs full season numbers.

by B_T on Oct 24, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rec'd!

Thanks for this. As I suspected, Ottawa’s in the bottom third of the league. Didn’t realize New Jersey would be that low. Awful.

Co-manager, Silver Seven

by DarrenM on Oct 25, 2011 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Filatov

Watching the game on Saturday, I found myself wishing that Filatov played centre. A second line with him between Alfredsson and Foligno would be great.

My new theory about why Filatov got sent down is that the Senators couldn’t fit him on a line because his skillset doesn’t match up well with the rest of the line-up. My suspicion is that the Senators want him to shoot more and/or change his approach to working the boards so that he fits on the wing more comfortably in MacLean’s system.

You don’t see a lot of playmaking wingers, maybe Kariya setting up Selanne in their hayday would be an example. Along those lines, you could try a line of Filatov-Alfredsson with a grinder at centre like Zack Smith. Smith would take face-offs and cover the opposing centre in the defensive zone, but on offense Filatov would be the primary play-maker.

Anyway, just a few random thoughts.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 9:52 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't disagree with them sending Filatov down.

I think it was more a: Look, we’re gonna give Zibanejad a shot, you just wait two weeks and you’ll be back up. I think you’re right though – they don’t know where he’ll fit in the lineup, but once Mikachu is sent back to the SEL or kept in the NHL, they’ll have to make a decision.

by The Tif on Oct 24, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

My only quibble

…with your interpretation is that it assumes that Zibanejad will be sent back. Management has claimed that they haven’t made their decision yet. If the were to decide that Zibanejad what would they tell Filatov?

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Last sentence should read: “If management were to decide to keep Zibanejad then what would they tell Filatov?”

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Management always says things like that

It helps keep rookies motivated. What should they say, that he’s going back no matter what?

by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 24, 2011 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Filatov and Z'jad debate

There is alot of debate as to whether the NHL is a good place for players to learn the skills they need to play in the NHL. Florida is taking the approach that they are training their young guns outside of the NHL, and we are trying to do more of the training in the NHL. In their case it’s Huberdeau… in our case it’s Filatov and Z’jad. Although Filatov is older, he’s still developing (hopefully).

With the contracts being what they are, a guy like Filatov needs to produce when he gets called up… and he will get called up (one more injury). Otherwise. if he doesn’t produce, the one way contracts take precedence.

Now is crunch time for Z’jad, and it’s just too bad that he can’t be sent to the AHL, which is where he belongs right now… at least for a few months. Let him tear up that lague and then come back brimming with confidence.

He’s probably headed back to Sweden and my fear is that he will return next year with nothing gained from this year, because he needs experience with our game not the Euro game on the Euro football field ice.

by Marvellous on Oct 24, 2011 11:06 AM EDT reply actions  

The AHL might be more suitable from a style point of view, but the SEL is not chopped liver. It is still an intensely competitive league where he will be playing against older bigger players. Guys like Alfredsson and Arvedsson made the transition from SEL to NHL without needing any time in the AHL. I am sure a year of growth, weight training and lots of ice time will do Zibanejad plenty of good regardless of whether that is SEL or AHL.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hope you are right. I’d just rather Z’jad become that tough as nails Power Forward who can score big time… This kind of player is what we desperately need to power our second line scoring. Can he learn to be that over there where a large percentage of hard body checks result in penalties?

by Marvellous on Oct 24, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

You raise a valid point about the checking, but if Z’jad can improve his strength, skating, face-offs, passing, anticipation and confidence then I would be prepared to wait a bit for the body checking to come around.

Another approach that the Senators could consider would be to make Z’jad the third line centre this season. Tell him that he is being counted on for offense and give him wingers like Neil and Condra. Playing with those guys he’ll learn how to throw a hit soon enough. Of course the Sens could do the same thing for the first 20 games of next season when he has added another 10 lbs of muscle and all around better game with and without the puck.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

My Center Ice feed was from Columbus

and the announcers said that they’d talked to Brian Murray before the game and Murray said that he’d been “burning up the phone lines” trying to trade a defenseman for a top six forward.

I know you have to take it with a grain of salt, but if Murray’s trying to get a top six forward with the salary that comes with it, you’d think he’s trying to unload one of the higher paid d-men, i.e. Gonchar or Kuba.

And if he’s successful and does get a forward that can step right in to the top six, what does that do to the whole Zibanejad/Filatov debate?

Then again, the Columbus announcers might have no clue what they were talking about.

by BorisB on Oct 24, 2011 11:23 AM EDT reply actions  

Who do you trade to make room?

If you go for a Top 6 forward, that means one of Michalek, Alfie, Greening, Foligno, Butler or Filatov have to go. Filatov is already in the minors, Butler is injured, so unless you could package a defencemen and one of those (realistically, Foligno or Butler – maybe Greening) for a bonafide top 6, why would you? And in a rebuilding year, why not wait and see where things go from here.

by The Tif on Oct 24, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

If the rumours are true...

…then Murray should be looking for a trade along the lines of Kuba for a 2nd line centre on an expiring contract. In that scenario, Zibanejad goes back to Sweden and DaCosta goes to Binghamton for a while. Later in the season, Murray could move the expiring centre for a pick and give Regin or DaCosta another chance at that role.

Btw, how many games does Filatov need to play in Binghamton to be eligible for the playoffs? Like everyone, I hope he is back on the big club soon, but I don’t think it would do him any harm to get a playoff run with the B-Sens (assuming Bingo makes the playoffs and Ottawa doesn’t).

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he only needs to be on their roster by a certain day

Clear Down day, or whatever it’s called. Past that point, even if he’s sent down, he’s not eligible.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 24, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really? That seems weird. So say he played the first 55 games in Bingo and then got called up by the Sens before Clear Down Day. In that case, he would be ineligible for the playoffs? That seems strange to me.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm no expert (not old yet)

Just my understanding.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 24, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t doubt you guys, I just find the rule a bit counter-intuitive.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he means the other way around though

That a player who spends most of the season with the AHL club, being called up only for a few days that happen to include Clear Day, is ineligible for the AHL playoffs. Which seems odd.

by B_T on Oct 24, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh. duh

Yeah, from that perspective, it’s definitely odd.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 24, 2011 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Almost made a new entry until I saw your last point. I think you are correct. We are in the middle of a rebuilding process and secondary scoring isn’t an important point on the agenda now. Scouting and player development are key. With Z-jad, Puempel, Noesen and hopefully a Top5 pick in June you have a lot of potential secondary scoring potential.

People need to enjoy the ride with wins against struggling teams like Winnipeg or Columbus, but it more important to appreciate to see Cowen and Rundblad first steps in the NHL.

by Acer9 on Oct 24, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't think it really changes anything

Even if Murray does get a top 6 forward there is still room for one of Zbad or Filatov in the top 6. No offence to Greening, but he could easily be a 3rd liner. Alfredsson could also be shifted to the third line to give him some more room to work and play with Da Costa. If we do get another top 6 forward, we only have 3 of our top 6 nailed down with Spezza, Michalek, and this new guy.

by ojc on Oct 24, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think Alfie will be used sparingly as the year goes on.

Basically limited PP time and high stakes times – 1 goal lead/1 goal down sorta thing. Let the kids eat up the big minutes – better for their development and for his health.

by The Tif on Oct 24, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hope you're right

Alfie being Alfie he’ll likely grab all the minutes he can get now that he’s (mostly) healthy. It’s nice to see his joy of the game back to 100%.

by anothersensfan on Oct 24, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd almost be willing to guess that Filatov would be included in that package

I can’t believe that Kuba or Gonchar could bag a top-six guy by themselves. They wouldn’t even be good for a salary dump.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 24, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

It might seem like an improbable turn of events, but I would think that Kuba has started off the year well enough to be worth a 2nd line centre (assuming he was overpaid) with an expiring contract. I mean he is a “first-pairing defenseman” at the moment playing 20+ minutes a game, who has already scored 2 goals!

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe you guys are thinking a bit differently about a #2 centre than I am. My suggestion would be more along the lines of Kuba for a guy like Jarret Stoll from the Kings. He is in the last year of a deal paying him 3.6M (around the same as Kuba) and has average around 45 points a season. Put Stoll with Alfie and Foligno and he might be good for around 50 points and could be moved back to LA (or somewhere else) at the trade deadline for a draft pick or some kind of prospect. It’s not a sexy deal, but it would balance out the line-up better and allow the Sens to develop their prospects at a slower pace.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, I'm with you

I still think it’d be a challenge to pry away a #2 center from a team. That’s not usually a position that teams are looking to deal, you know?

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 24, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I see your point, but do you think that my Kuba for Stoll example would be so unlikely? Obviously, it depends on LA’s particular needs, but in terms of value that seems like an ok deal and if they happened to get a couple of defensive injuries (say Doughty is out for longer than expected) then I could see it making sense for both sides.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't understand the point of the trade

you’ll be taking minutes away from developing the kids wouldn’t you? Why get someone between Alfie & Foligno till Feb?

by whatsinaname on Oct 24, 2011 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, you will be taking away minutes from the developing forwards and relieving them of responsibilities that they are not ready to take on (at least based on the evidence we have seen so far). At the same time, you will be opening up minutes on defence where the kids are ready to assume the responsibility.

The purpose of the deal would be to have a better balance of players on the roster.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

The reasoning makes sense to me

It gets the team a year with Zibanejad and Da Costa where they both belong developmentally.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 24, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Honestly, no, I don't see it being so unlikely

Similar contracts, fills a need… it’s not like you’re proposing Kuba for Malkin or something.

I still think it’s more likely that Kuba winds up as a deadline rental, though.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 24, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I agree that Kuba moving at the deadline seems more likely. Also, the defense pairings are starting to get into a groove, so now might not be the ideal time to mess with them.

by DW19 on Oct 25, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Saku Koivu wouldn't be a bad idea for what you're proposing either.

If the Ducks have any confidence in Cogliano, that is. So, I guess it wouldn’t fit from that perspective.

by dzuunmod on Oct 24, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting idea. Yeah, I was just picking a name out of the air.

by DW19 on Oct 25, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

i'm with you

frankly, i think this is stirring up a debate that should be started with “Do we all agree that this is a rebuilding year?”

If yes, and you look at the evolution of our stable, it’s obvious that we really only started this past draft at looking for forward offense. It is obvious that we lack proven secondary scoring. it was ‘hoped’ that the sophmore’s (Greening, Butler) would pick up where they left off and some of our rookies (Filatov, Da Costa, Mika) would perform secondary scoring. the last is hopeful. that we’re having problems with thin pickings, injuries and rookies relied on for secondary scoring is not really a news-flash.

What is great to see though is how reliably our primary scoring is coming through already. This is good news. Hopefully as the season wears on we’ll see the secondary come along – if our mgmt has made the right choices.

by west-sider on Oct 24, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

This

It does seem odd, then, that Murray is trying to trade for a top-six forward. The team’s rebuilding, so why try to move players now who might command a higher return at the trade deadline (for picks and prospects)?

by JonathanA on Oct 24, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree (on Murray and trade seeking)

I really hope this is not a case of short attention span on the rebuild…

by west-sider on Oct 24, 2011 12:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I think it is more a matter of balancing the roster. The young players will learn more on a properly functioning team than they will if the roster is seriously unbalanced.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is that

The Oilers may, I suppose, be a case study in developing young players with an unbalanced forward corps.

by JonathanA on Oct 24, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Making the playoffs is not a bad thing in the midst of a rebuild

If you can trade a surplus, expiring asset like Filip Kuba for an asset that will address a position of weakness, you might as well do it.

by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 24, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

A few more stats for some added context

Last year’s S% leader was Sergei Kostitsyn with 24.7%, but only 93 shots on goal in 77 games for 1.2 s/g. Sid the Kid was next, with 19.9% and 3.9 s/g.

The best S% last season with a s/g comparable to Michalek and Spezza this season (3.0 and 3.1) was Drew Stafford with 17.3% and 2.9 s/g.

by B_T on Oct 24, 2011 11:44 AM EDT reply actions  

who was also out for a big part of the year

So you could argue small sample size with Stafford too.

by west-sider on Oct 24, 2011 12:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

He missed 20 games

With playing over 75% of the season, I’d say the sample size for Stafford is good enough.

by B_T on Oct 24, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yet more stats

Alfie is almost dead on his NHL career average. 13.0% on the season vs 12.8% career average, with 2.9 s/g for both.

In order of shots per game this season:

Karlsson is plugging along at 82% of his career S%, but 14% above his career s/g. Net loss of 7% g/g.

Niel and Foligno are both running at 55% of their career S%. But Neil is shooting twice as often, so he’s actually 11% above his career g/g pace. Foligno is shooting 31% more often, and is down 28% from his career g/g.

Greening is down on s%, up on s/g and it all balances out for a measly 1% drop in g/g.

Kuba – KUBA – is up a relative 138% for s% and 20% for s/g, for an astonishing (for as long as it holds) 186% increase in goals per game!

(Winchester and Z-bad are next, but with 2 games for Winchester, and no career stats for Z-Bad, they get skipped)

This brings us to Regin and Z. Smith. Regin has almost doubled his s% (88%), his s/g is down (-12%) combining for an increase of 64% for g/g. Z. Smith is up for all 3 stats (30%, +8% and +40%)

(Da Costa and Rundblad are also skipped, due to minimal and no NHL history before this season)

Rounding out the 1 s/g on the season crowd are Phillips and Gonchar. Neither has a goal yet this season. Phillips s/g is down 17%, but has historically been good for a goal every 16 games or so. Gonchar is way down in s/g (-58%). His career average s% is 8.3%, and has been good for a goal every 5 games.

For those talked about here combined, the season average is 11.6% s%, 2.1 s/g and 0.24 g/g. Those same players, career wise, are 9.3% s%, 1.9 s/g and 0.18 g/g.

Excluding the top 3, the season average is 7.6% s%, 1.7 s/g and 0.13 g/g (across 9 players). The career averages are 8.0% s%, 1.7 s/g and 0.14 g/g.

by B_T on Oct 24, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the numbers

Interesting numbers, but over a small sample size. Most of the discrepancies can be explained by random noise at this early point in the season.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mostly agree

Especially with Phillips only averaging a goal every 16 games in his career.

I don’t think it’s too soon to draw some conclusions though. Notably the increase in shots per game from Spezza, Michalek, Karlsson, Neil, Foligno and Kuba. It’s not unreasonable to think that’s a systematic change, and not lucky/unlucky bounces like the s% differences could be.

by B_T on Oct 24, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right

I guess I was thinking more about sh% when I made that comment. I agree that the shots/gm is a result of players efforts and/or coaching strategy.

by DW19 on Oct 24, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Short term blip?

Perhaps secondary scoring is low right now due to the fact that Maclean has been shuffling lines every 4 minutes or so?

As I’ve commented elsewhere, I think he’s trying out all the possible combinations to see what works and who might have “chemistry”, towards determining who stays with the team for the season.

I’d suggest re-generating the #s using games #10-19 to see if this changes.

by Joebo on Oct 24, 2011 4:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Career averages??

Aren’t 13 of 23 guys on our roster in their first full/rookie year? Resoundingly solid math there ;)

But seriously, if Maclean does well as a coach (which I’m hoping he will prove to be), he should be able to configure the roster so as to give these young guys a shot to elevate their games and contribute more regularly on the scoresheet.

I’m just saying this isn’t going to be reflected in this years stats yet, because he’s still changing everyone’s linemates constantly. If things go well, he makes some personnel decisions in the next week or so, starts getting guys onto regular lines, and then give guys a few games + practices to get familiar – you’ll start seeing the secondary scoring pick up after that.

by Joebo on Oct 24, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, career averages

And yes, using only those that weren’t rookies. Those guys are all averaging out, regardless of the line shuffling.

But point taken on the rookies. It could be slowing the secondary scoring from them

by B_T on Oct 24, 2011 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

O My Gaad!!!

I am tripping all over these stats. McLean will blow his mind if he were to see all these statistical analyses. Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics!!!

by whatsinaname on Oct 24, 2011 6:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Rec'd.

The man is on a mission!

by The Tif on Oct 24, 2011 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ha!

We’re like the least Kuba-hateful blog out there, man.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 24, 2011 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's true

I actually like the guy.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 24, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

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