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Silver Nuggets: Does Regin injury change Zibanejad decision?

Jason Spezza's face can't be seen, but I assure you, he's giggling. (Photo by Jana Chytilova/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images)

I think most Senators fans were in agreement before last night that Mika Zibanejad should be sent back to Sweden. Paul MacLean hinted that he felt Zibanejad was NHL ready, but that they will do what is best for Mika. However, last night, Peter Regin left the game after just two shifts with an apparent shoulder injury. We don't know the severity of the injury, though Bruce Garrioch mentioned that Regin didn't practice today.

If Peter Regin is out long term, what does this mean for Zibanejad? The Senators have two more games before making a decision that just became a little bit harder. Now, I don't think either Zibanejad or Stéphane Da Costa are ready to be second line centres this year. But if Regin is out, one of them has to be. After the first couple of games, Da Costa was far better, but since then he has been very disappointing. Zibanejad for his part, was very quiet as well, but he was being used on the wing. Last night, Zibanejad returned to centre and had a better game than Da Costa who was languishing on the fourth line. Zibanejad would have had his first goal were it not for a very nice save.

Having said that, if I was making the decision, I would still send Zibanejad back and keep Da Costa. I don't think Zibanejad is going to get overpowered in the NHL, but he's only 18 years old and another year in Elitserien wouldn't hurt. I see no compelling reasons to keep him over Da Costa. Da Costa is going to have his entry level contract count regardless, while Zibanejad can have his slide to next year.

On hockey play, I would say this is a toss-up. In which case, I feel the contract situation and Zibanejad's age should be the deciding factor in sending him back. If Regin can't go, I would give Zibanejad two more games, call up Filatov and either keep Da Costa on the fourth line for two more games or scratch him. Though, if the Senators choose to keep Zibanejad for the season, I won't be too upset.

Star-divide

Last game

General Sens News
  • This was something I noticed in the first period yesterday, that Erik Karlsson and Filip Kuba played a majority of the time when Jason Spezza's line was on the ice. This changed later in the game though. Wayne Scanlan writes that it was the early Soviet teams that changed lines as five man units instead of the three forwards or the two defencemen. So, are the Senators defensive problems more than just the defencemen? (Ottawa Citizen)
  • More on the Zibanejad decision, with the player himself modest as always, and he isn't sure if he deserves to stay or not. (Ottawa Citizen)
  • Also, The 6th Sens with their view on Zibanejad, before the Regin injury. (The 6th Sens)
  • Don Brennan is liking what he has seen from Colin Greening, and as you would expect from Brennan, didn't like Zenon Konopka being scratched. Lastly, one big hit by David Rundblad last night reminded him of Anton Volchenkov. (Ottawa Sun)
  • Jason Spezza hit Ian Mendes in the head during the pre-game, and then scored three points. Ian would prefer that not to become a routine. (Ian Mendes)
  • A great fan post from spez_dispenser looking into every player on the Senators roster and how likely they are to be traded at the deadline. (Silver Seven Fan Post)

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I didn't really think Zibanejad looked NHL-ready last night.

There were some flashes of talent and some really bad moments. Still needs more seasoning, IMO.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 1:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Centres

The fact that Winchester is back means Z-Bad is really still in the same position. We still have too many NHL centres right now. Even if Regin is injured for a period, we still have Spezza/DaCosta/Kenopka/Winchester to play centre.

by modsuperstar on Oct 21, 2011 1:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Konopka/Winchester are interchangeable as 4th line centres

I don’t think I like either one of them for the 3rd line centre role. I wouldn’t have a problem with Zibanejad taking on the 3rd line centre role, and working up to 2nd as the season progresses.
There seems to be a lot of doubt about Zibanejad because he didn’t produce on Spezza’s wing and because he is more noticeable when he’s playing centre; but that he hasn’t played well enough for the 2nd line role. I would argue that him not being noticeable – while not great because you’d like to see him produce, isn’t a bad thing either in that he’s not making mistakes. As long as he is developing and learning the NA game here and continues to get better, I see no reason to not keep him here.

Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.

by havey03 on Oct 21, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I could see Winchester on the 3rd line

I’d almost say ZSmith and Konopka are more interchangeable.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

That’s why I’d say Smith is the one interchangeable with Konopka rather than Winchester.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Zmith also knows how to finish. Something that cannot be said for Winchester.

by ojc on Oct 21, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I knew there was another centre I forgot, thanks for the catch. He should be the 3rd line centre.

by modsuperstar on Oct 21, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was pretty sure the team was trying to get Z-Bad his first goal last night with the empty net towards the end of the game. He had a pretty long shift and they were trying to feed him the puck to get a crack at his first goal.

by modsuperstar on Oct 21, 2011 1:14 PM EDT reply actions  

I thought that too.

He almost got it too. A defenseman pulled it out of the air.

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Zibanejad looks more NHL ready than Da Costa

Da Costa just dosnt have the size to play in the NHL at the moment he has vision but Zibby has vision too. I think Zibby just offers more to the team than Da Costa because he has everything Da Costa has but he has less ice time. Yesterday Zibanejad looked like An Nhl player Da Costa so far has looked inconsistent Zibby you know what to expect from him and hes met those expectations. I think this decision should be not only about Zibby but also bout the team.Zibbys a better fit for the team than Da Costa. We already have a D that gives the puck away too much. We cant afford a second line center that does the same.

by Senator26 on Oct 21, 2011 1:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I disagree on pretty much all fronts

Most importantly with the idea that we should decide based on what’s best for the team. This early in a player’s career and with the potential he’s shown, the decision should only be about what’s best for his development because properly developing him is what’s best for the team, even if we accept your argument that Zibanejad is better for the team this year than Da Costa (which I don’t accept at all). Playing someone too soon can seriously hinder their development, and all we should be looking at is whether he’s ready.

That said, I didn’t think Zibanejad looked ready at all. Speaking of not wanting a second line centre that gives the puck away, that’s what I saw him do, plus missing passes and generally losing the puck.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree on pretty much all fronts

Plus a year of a rookie contract is not a negligible asset.

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think they have to

It just makes too much sense to keep him out of the NHL for another year.

It’s really too bad that he can’t go the AHL this year. That would obviously be the best course of action in an ideal world. Can anyone enlighten me as to the policy on this for next year? Is he in the last year of an SEL contract, or is it NHL or SEL again next year?

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Looks like he's under contract with Djurgarden next year I think.

According to Wikipedia, he signed a two year extension with them back in February.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

So if that is the case, can he go to the AHL next year?

And if not, wouldn’t we just be putting off the inevitable?

by The Tif on Oct 21, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it's still NHL or bust

My understanding (which a Google translation of this Swedish article supports) is that his contract only releases him for NHL games. But no I don’t think we’re putting off the inevitable because I seriously think he needs another season of development before he’s NHL ready.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough. We'll wait and see I guess.

He could come back with Silverberg and kick ass :)

by The Tif on Oct 21, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Doesn't look like it

You could argue that he’d still be a year older and have the accompanying experience and strength that comes with that.

Also, since we’re unlikely to do anything this year, there’s still the matter of an extra year of his rookie contract. That will be valuable later as the team (please God) improves.

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Da Costas been the given time to show his worth

and last night he didnt look good at all he wasnt reliable. Zibanejad even if he gives the puck away has that defensive awareness to make up for it. Hockey is a team sport if keeping Zibby is best for the team than why not? How is 1 year in the SEL more beneficial than a year in the NHL?

by Senator26 on Oct 21, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

But you're only thinking about what's best for the team this year

You’re not considering the fact that what’s best for Zibanejad is what’s best for the team in the long run.

Plus given how good Da Costa was earlier in the season and in the preseason, I’m not ready yet to give up on him. His play has declined, but he deserves more of a shot because the potential is amazing.

As for what good a year in the SEL would do, see above re: kicking ass with Silfverberg. And the examples of David Rundblad playing last year in the SEL and Spezza/Karlsson/Filatov being sent to Bingo for seasoning.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Youre probably right about how 1 more year in the SEL could do wonders for his confidence

Bu the thing is i haven’t given up hope that Zibby could be productive here and and that would do him even better confidence wise. But its also unfair to judge Zibanejad when his tryout still isnt over.

by Senator26 on Oct 21, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think it's fair to judge him on one game

Da Costa has outplayed Zibanejad at center this year. It’s as simple as that.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

And I don't even think it was that imbalanced last night.

I saw good things and bad things from both of them.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought Mikachu was better last night

But as a whole, I don’t think it’s particularly close.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

True but Da Costa outplayed him in the first three games

If Zibby can outplay Da Costa for the remainder of his tryout it should be close

by Senator26 on Oct 21, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Da Costa would have to play RW instead of 4th line for it to be really fair

I don’t see that happening, though.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree Zibanejad should be sent back

But didn’t Da Costa only outplay him for two or three games at centre before Zibanejad was moved to wing?

Overall, I don’t find that big a difference between the two’s play, it’s the age and contract that decides it for me.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah he did

And even though Da Costa’s play hasn’t been as good lately, I’d still say he outplayed Zibanejad for those games where Zibby was on the wing. Granted some of it was that Zibby’s just bad on the wing, but still.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well I don't think we should read anything into what management has said

But let’s just agree to disagree. You’re not going to convince me that Zibanejad is more NHL ready than Da Costa this season, and I’m not convincing you either.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

Although the point of having the debate earlier was to debate whether he really should have gotten the full 9. Then again, you can totally argue that there was no point in having that debate since MacLean was clear that he’d get all 9.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I’m with you AlfieGirl on this one.

by Ibanez_Guy on Oct 21, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

?? Confused ??

Not too sure what you mean by
“Zibby just offers more to the team than Da Costa because he has everything Da Costa has but he has less ice time.”
Last game (Jets) Zibanejad had 1 SOG, 12:04 TOI whereas Da Costa had 2 SOG with 8:24 TOI.
Da Costa has not been inconsistent. He has produced at the same level multiplied by the TOI given, not to mention the players surrounding him. Take a look at both players Corsi ratings from the Wild game. Both were given big minutes and good players to play with. Zibanejad was – 5 whereas Da Costa ended up a +14. Statistically Da Costa has been superior to Zibanejad so far. As for your “Da Costa just dosnt have the size to play in the NHL..” Really? Are you the guy that said this about Theo Fleury, Martin St. Louis, etc, etc…..I guess Alfie being 5’11" 195 is much more NHL size than Stephane at 5’11" 185.

by sensfan44 on Oct 21, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well Da Costa's playing like he's smaller than he really is

But I think Zibanejad is too. It’s just adjusting to the NHL. Greening seemed fine when he started last season, but I didn’t really notice his size until this season and even then it took a few games – I think it just takes a while for them to adjust to the NHL and really play to their full potential, and part of that adjustment is playing a bit hesitantly and coming off as smaller than they really are.

Hell, I even thought Karlsson played like he was small in a good chunk of last season. But he’s certainly grown out of it by now!

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 22, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lol

I don’t know, but I just didn’t see it until this season. I think it’s pretty common for guys to play a bit diminutively when they’re starting out, so I’m not worried that I see it occasionally from Da Costa.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 22, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

To be honest, I don’t really care if Da Costa is small, he has great vision and skill. I guess I am one of those people that doesn’t size that highly.

And if he gets beat up or outmuscled, we have a lot less invested in him than Zibanejad.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 22, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well he's also not that small

Same height as Alfie and 10lbs lighter is not small. Not huge, but I’d say average. It’s not like he’s Ryan Shannon.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 22, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry let me rephrase that

Da Costa dosnt seem to have the strength to play in the NHL to me he just looks weak but he does have skill though those types of players are better off in the AHL

by Senator26 on Oct 22, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Doesn't change anything for me

I think the decision is between Regin, Da Costa, and Zibanejad, and I think the order I’d rank them is the order I just wrote them in. With Da Costa still on the Senators roster, I think the team should still send Zibanejad back to Sweden.

Even if we decide Da Costa isn’t ready to be a second-line centreman, I’d prefer to see Corey Locke recalled from Binghamton than see Zibanejad play a full season here.

by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 21, 2011 1:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed

And frankly I don’t really understand how this is still an ongoing debate, with the way all of them have played.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

If neither one is ready, why not send them both back and just use Locke or Winchester as a quick fix until Regin is back.

by Smiles on Oct 21, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also, another reason why Corsi isn't the be-all and end-all

I’m not saying Corsi isn’t a valuable statistic—it most certainly is—but it’s only valuable as part of a grander picture of a player’s performance.

The fact that Michalek had a -16 Corsi rating is a little nutty.

by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 21, 2011 1:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Can we bin the corsi updates in the Nuggets? To me it just seems like a buzzword lately that I don’t think adds a whole lot to the conversation.

by modsuperstar on Oct 21, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't call it a buzzword

Adnan’s just all over it since learning what it is. And given that he’s usually writing the Nuggets, that’s why it comes up so much. You are asking the wrong person, I think.

But I agree. It’s one stat but not the be all and end all, and I also don’t think it really adds much. The problem is that despite that article explaining what it is, I still don’t really remember what it is. Or care all that much, to be honest – I’m paying a lot more attention to attitude and qualitative play this season than to numbers, because really I don’t expect anyone’s numbers to be spectacular.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

And that's fine

Not everyone will care about the advanced statistics. That’s why Adnan includes one bullet that has traditional stats, and one bullet that has advanced ones, and any who doesn’t like the advanced stats can simply skip over them to the next bullet point.

by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 21, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

I’m not saying it should be taken out because I don’t care.

But I do also agree that the word keeps getting thrown around all the time and isn’t contributing to any discussion – up until this discussion about whether it’s contributed to any discussions.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I feel it might begin to contribute to discussions if it is used more and explained more. A lot of the other team’s blogs routinely discuss it. I don’t think there is anything inherently different about Senators fans.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Possibly

And I also kind of feel like stats would be better in the recap than in the nuggets, which are more general news.

Maybe others appreciate it, but my impression is that it’s mostly lost on the people who comment on here. Or they get it and don’t have any comments, but I imagine that I’m not the only person with a vague understanding of it…

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree it is probably better in the recap, I try to do that when I recap. But when I don’t, I figured it is worth mentioning the next day.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I suppose

Maybe a comment in the recap? I also think there’s an issue of losing the context – without other stats handy, it’s really of limited use.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't feel that Corsi stats would fit in with my style

I’ll probably never use them, but I still find them interesting. I really don’t see a problem with having them in the Nuggets.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol I totally read that comment in the “most interesting man in the world” voice . . . sigh I watch too much TV

by Smiles on Oct 21, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ha. :P

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

For you good sir

http://qkme.me/357ak6

I don’t know how to copy-paste that into a link…

by The Tif on Oct 21, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rec'd

Ha!

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

It seems like another attempt to import baseball analysis into other sports

Everyone wants advanced metrics to work in other sports, but the fact of the matter is that the system doesn’t really work properly in most team sports.

We’ll just have to keep the scouting system I guess. Good news for Tim Murray.

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do find it interesting by the way

I was weighing in on the relative usefulness of these and other similar statistics, not whether they are worthy of discussion. I do appreciate the effort to give us all the numbers.

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, I really think +/- is a useless stat

It’s not a good indicator of player performance (I say, as I pointed out Spezza was a plus-two in my recap last night) since it really just tells you if a player was on the ice or not for a goal, not whether or not they were involved in it.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

I think statistics generally can be indicative of good play, but not terribly useful in any sport but baseball.

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t know, if Michalek was on the ice for 14 saves against, and 3 only saves by the Winnipeg goalie, it has to mean something. Or 8 shots attempted for, and 24 shots attempted against.

Maybe it was indicative that line was passing up shooting chances to pass, but I am pretty sure if they are outshot that badly every game, it will show. But that big a difference doesn’t happen by accident I don’t feel.

Just need to be clear on what it represents, 5 on 5 puck possession.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

The idea behind Corsi is that most players will regress to their mean in terms of shooting percentage. So shots are a much better predictor of goals than goals themselves.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, okay, that makes sense as a predictor

But, I mean… the goals happened last night. Obviously I’m not saying they always will, but as an evaluator, I don’t think reality should be discounted.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed, and I wasn’t trying to say discount the goals. But it’s still worth mentioning that line was badly outshot though. I would argue if that happens regularly, then he will likely be outscored.

Again, sample size is key, maybe it’s not worth spending too much time on a single game, hence why just one bullet point.

I was as surprised as everyone else at Michalek’s -16, made me go “huh?”

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, I agree

Assuming regression to the mean, a line that is outshot should generally be outscored. That makes perfect sense to me.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we should use "Number of Teeth" as a predictor

Because it’s indicative of shot blocking and work in the corners.

Of course, it would need to be adjusted based on the team average and the use of mouthguards.

Importantly, any player who does use a mouthguard but rates well in this statistic is invaluable to his team.

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Game-by-game it's useless

But I think cumulative +/- over the course of the season can be helpful. If someone’s a +40 or a -40, it certainly indicates something.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Indicative yes

But players are so interdependent in hockey that it mostly tells you that they didn’t manage to make their team stop the suck.

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure

I’m not saying it paints a clear picture on its own. But unlike +/- for a single game, it does say something.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

And when comparing to other players on the same (or similar) teams

A -40 on last year’s Oilers is one thing. A -40 on last year’s Canucks is something entirely different.

by B_T on Oct 21, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep, that’s why relative corsi (accounting for other teammates ratings) is better, I try to use that when I do a cummulative analysis.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well I don't think it offers much for a single game

But over 82 games when it’s accumulated, I think it does actually provide useful information. Not must have information, maybe, but useful.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

But how is cumulative useless infomation suddenly useful?

I’m really not following why it’s more informative in larger quantities. It feels like multiplying by zero to me.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

That must be it

I see it as absolutely useless. That would explain the difference to me.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it's main usefulness is when combined with other stats to give additional perspective

For example, if you have 2 players who had a 90% overlap in their ice time but their +/- was 10 off from each other, that tells you something.

by B_T on Oct 21, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe

In that case, you’ve learned that one of them needs to get better at changing on the fly (either too early or not fast enough).

But maybe they’ve got roughly the same TOI, and get stuck out on a change roughly as often. That tells you something different.

by B_T on Oct 21, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh man, you ARE a research analyst

Thanks for dropping some knowledge on me.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, yes I am

And to be fair about +/- being able to tell us things at times – there’s probably other ways that do a better job of telling us most of them. For the line change example, I’d really hope that the coaching staff would spot the problem without having to rely on a full season’s +/-.

by B_T on Oct 22, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Useless is useless

whether it is practically or absolutely. The plus/minus rating is so ever present but so obviously flawed that I view the corsi as a counter balance, interesting but not without its own problems.

by whatsinaname on Oct 21, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think this is exactly what I'm saying

Thank you!

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

And people say stats are boring

Adnan, look what your 53% and corsi are causing? We are all confirmed nerds now.

by whatsinaname on Oct 21, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, it's not

Practically useless can be improved by an increased sample size (how much of an increase required to make it not-practically-useless can vary). Absolutely useless cannot be salvaged by an increased sample size.

To use Mark’s “multiply by 0” analogy – absolutely useless is just that. Practically useless could be “multiply by 0.001” or “multiply by 0.00000000001”.

It’s pretty basic statistical theory.

by B_T on Oct 21, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

For example

Based on the limited sample size of games teams have played, the Islanders are playoff contenders and (even more ridiculously) Colorado and Dallas are tied for first in the West. But add 75 more games and the picture is likely to be very different.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I were older

I would practically have no hair left for you to split

by whatsinaname on Oct 21, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hah!

But seriously, this isn’t splitting hairs. It’s a core principle of statistical theory, and is very well proven.

by B_T on Oct 21, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then maybe useless was the wrong term.

On a per game basis, it’s of very little use but not totally useless. It’s like survey results where you survey 5 people vs 500 – the more data, the more informative the answer.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s only true if you accept that plus/minus is a completely random stat that provides no value. It does provide some value, but as with most stats, sample sizes matter.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

They don't work as an end-all-be-all in other sports

But advanced metrics absolutely do have a place. Even the scouting systems use it to help prioritize use of the in-person scouting resources.

by B_T on Oct 21, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think they're worth looking at, and I like them

And I know that some community members appreciate the advanced statistics, which is something few Senators fans really looking into.

I think Corsi definitely adds to the conversation, all I meant to say is that it can’t be the conversation. It’s just part of it.

by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 21, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think that’s just the case of Michalek outperforming the odds in a very small sample size. But when Michalek was on the ice, Anderson had to make 14 saves while the Winnipeg goalie had to make 3 saves. (also it doesn’t consider empty net situations)

If Michalek hadn’t scored his goal, it might not have seemed that bad. I agree Michalek looked great last night, but I would bet he still spent more time in his own end.

If he got outshot that badly the whole season, it would be more noticeable when he has a realistic shooting percentage.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

(Actually sorry it does consider empty net situations in this case, it didn’t consider his power play goal as it is even strength only).

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

It’s interesting today because it’s so off base from the great game Rocket Knees had last night, but generally it needs to accompany a bunch of other player stats to be useful.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

aren’t most stats like that? or really, aren’t most things in life like that? you always have to look at the context.. I guess I just don’t believe in “be all end all’s” to begin with :)

by Ibanez_Guy on Oct 21, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay the answer to my article is: No

From Sylvain St-Laurent

La décision de garder M. Zibanejad à Ottawa n’aura rien à voir avec l’état de santé de Regin. "Deux dossiers différents", argue P. MacLean.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:00 PM EDT reply actions  

I think it roughly means the decision on keeping Zibanejad won’t depend on Regin’s health. Two different questions.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure if it means anything

The statement, not the french.

I think the team is just playing their cards close to the vest with Zibby. They’re not going to tell us anything until Z-Day (game 10).

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really that's what I think of most of MacLean's comments about Zibby

I don’t really buy a lot of what’s been said. I think they’re just trying to make sure he has a positive experience with the Sens for now and make sure the fans are excited about him.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

The decision to keep Mr. Zibanejad Ottawa has nothing to do with the health of Regin. “Two different cases,” argues P. MacLean.

Thanks Google Translate!

by The Tif on Oct 21, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's true

Google translate also called him Micah in its translation of the Swedish article I linked to about his contract.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Something like this:

The decision to keep Zibby in Ottawa won’t have anything to do with Regin’s health. “Two different things”, says Paulrus

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Was at practice 20 minutes ago

I was at practice today and Zibanejad was skating on one end by himself while the other players were working through drills. Not good sign.

by skanji on Oct 21, 2011 2:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I have to think that even with Regin's injury, Zibanejad should head back

There’s just no reason to rush him. If MacLean feels he’s an NHL player, he’ll still be an NHL player next year. The team would have to believe that he can’t learn anything more in the SEL to keep him here, and given their comfort level with Silfverberg heading back, I can’t see how that would be the case.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Re Silfverberg back in SEL

my understanding is that Murray wanted him here at TC to make the team but Jakob preferred to go back. I have said this before, Mika Z might very well stay because the team feels he will learn the game better here than in the SEL. Now , I remember the Spezza/Hossa/ Karlsson cases very well, but the team situation has changed and Mika can’t go to the AHL. I think SEL will not benefit Mika at this stage of his development, hence my disagreement with most of you guys. Guess we’ll know by middle of next week.

by whatsinaname on Oct 21, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

You might be right

but now that he has a taste of the NHL, he wants to stay not that how he feels should sway Murray/McLean’s decision. I can see him going back to SEL, but I can totally see the justification for him staying as well. Aaaarrrggg.

by whatsinaname on Oct 21, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

I mean, he’s not going to say that now even if it’s true. And I doubt it’s true once he’s used to playing in the NHL. But still!

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that was my understanding of the situation as well

But at the end of the day, they didn’t have a problem with him going back, which I think says a lot about the quality of the SEL. Given that, it seems like the SEL isn’t a bad spot for Zibanejad. If it’s good enough for Silfverberg…

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I don’t mind another year in the SEL, it’s not like he is going back to play with juniors, he’ll be playing with men.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

We can afford to send Zibanejad back

We’ll just need to use someone who’s more fit for a 3rd line role as a 2nd liner. It would also be good to make room to get Filatov back up here!
And correct me if I’m wrong, but I just thought Foligno might be a natural centre too, even though he’s always played wing in Ottawa?

by Sports Fan! on Oct 21, 2011 2:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I believe you are right

But for my money, Foligno didn’t look any different as a center.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

But while we're on the topic

I thought Foligno looked really good last night. He might never have turned into what we expected when we got him, but he does seem to finally be finding his game the way he never quite did in the last couple of seasons.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I almost gave him an honorable mention

If he and Greening can actually contribute as the “power forward” type, they should have roles on the team for a while.

I’m more hesitant with Foligno, because he has shown flashes of this before. It’s his inconsistency that keeps me from believing.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

Although I think generally this season he’s getting there. Or maybe it’s just that he looks good by comparison.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s what keeps me believing!

by Sports Fan! on Oct 21, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Foligno

He works the boards beautifully. You need these guys to set up in the offensive zone. I thought we missed this type of player for a while after Schaeffer left (though Alfie and Spezza are both quite good at it).

by RogerTheShrubber on Oct 21, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good point

He is kind of like Schaefer in that respect. Hopefully he ends up producing like Schaefer (for many more years though).

by Sports Fan! on Oct 21, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

What I'm saying is...

If Zibanejad gets sent back, and Regin is out and we need a 2nd line centre: Foligno could be a temporary answer.

by Sports Fan! on Oct 21, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

That could be a decent solution. It would be between him and Da Costa. Unless…they call up Locke I guess.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

According to the Citizen

Konopka will replace Regin tomorrow. So much for the Filatov debate!

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 2:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, damn.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many faceoffs?

I’ll admit he did look better in that respect last night.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Decent faceoff percentage for the rookie

Then again, faceoffs are about the least important thing to consider – they’re not going to send him back because of crappy faceoff stats and they’re not going to keep him because of good ones.

Oh Captain, my Captain!

by AlfieGirl on Oct 21, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah you can’t really look at one game’s faceoff stats to judge how a player is doing. Everyone has <50% days and >50% days.

by Sports Fan! on Oct 21, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Spezza took 27, Zibanejad did take 7 though.

An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.

by Adnan on Oct 21, 2011 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Regin is officially out VS Colombus

Past that, unknown, but the team should have a better idea today or tomorrow.

http://senators.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=596923

by B_T on Oct 21, 2011 4:43 PM EDT reply actions  

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