The Ottawa Senators 0-2 start isn't all bad
by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 11, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
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No Sens fan would point to the Ottawa Senators 0-2 start and say that's what they were hoping for to start the season. We've seen a team plagued with inconsistent scoring, giveaway-ridden and positionally-abhorrent defence, and some highly questionable goaltending.
But it's not all bad. The Senators have shown that they're able to do some things well, and, for the most part, those things that have been lacking should be fixable with a buy-in up and down the lineup. Below are four bright spots to the winless start to the 2011-12 season.
1. Ottawa can score goals.
This, to me, is the most pleasantly surprising development of the first two games this season: Ottawa has scored eight goals in just two games against two pretty good goaltenders. The biggest part of that fact is the health of Jason Spezza (1G, 3A), Daniel Alfredsson (2G, 1A), and Milan Michalek (2G, 1A), but no fewer than 12 Senators players have already scored points in this young embryonic season. Offence has come from pretty much throughout the lineup, too, despite its concentration on the above-mentioned three top forwards.
Also positive is that special teams are clicking, and Ottawa already has four powerplay goals (from four different scorers, no less). Last season, it took until the seventh game for the Senators to score as many goals with the man-advantage as they've already notched through just two games this season.
Can this continue? It's unclear. On paper, Ottawa's roster should technically be offensively dangerous than last season considering the losses of Mike Fisher, Alex Kovalev, and Chris Kelly, who've been replaced by very green and unproven players. But it looks like Paul MacLean's system calls for an aggressive forecheck and a lot of pucks thrown on the net, both factors which should increase scoring chances in Ottawa's favour. We'll see.
2. Fixable shortcomings.
The biggest problem so far for the Senators, without a doubt, has been turnovers--especially defensive-zone turnovers committed by the team's blueliners. To a man, the entire D corps has been guilty at one time or another, although names at the top of the list are likely Chris Phillips and Sergei Gonchar. The whole group has also found themselves out of position far too often, resulting in odd-man rushes and wide-open opponents with a free shot at Craig Anderson. This cannot continue.
But these are problems which can be corrected. It's important to keep in mind that the Senators have barely practiced together yet, and there was no time to address shortcomings noticed in the first game before the team had to hit the ice for the second. If the defence commits to making simpler plays and gets ample support from the forwards, we should see a bit more competence in the defensive end.
Will this happen? It seems even less likely than team scoring continuing at a rate near the current one, but it is possible. But as Gonchar, Phillips, and to a lesser extent Filip Kuba continue playing as ineffectively as they have in the first two games, it will go a long way in demonstrating that last season's ugly back-end performance is more the rule than the exception. (It may offer Brian Elliott a smidgen of vindication, though.) On the bright side, Kuba should be motivated by the fact that he's in a contract year, and I simply can't believe Gonchar has straight-up forgotten how to play hockey.
3. Rookie scoring.
Mika Zibanejad had an assist in his first NHL game, and Stéphane Da Costa scored a goal in his sixth. Although Nikita Filatov isn't a rookie, he's pretty close to it, and he put up an assist in his first game with the Sens. It's obviously nice to see these kids have some success, but it's also promising to see that that can keep up with the speed of the NHL game, and nice to know they're proving it early. Most promising is Da Costa, who hasn't just kept up but has looked like a veritable top-six player in the NHL (as long as he keeps his head up, of course).
It's unclear if Zibanejad will stay in Ottawa this season, but at this point it seems more likely that he'll return to Sweden. But if Da Costa and Filatov continue playing with the high-calibre teammates they're lined up beside now, and that group remains relatively healthy, there's every reason to think they'll continue scoring at a pace similar to that which they're on now.
4. Goaltending.
Craig Anderson isn't to blame for either of the two losses so far, but he hasn't been his best, either--even on an absolutely terrible team, Anderson should be a better goaltender than his 5.40 GAA and .857 SP would indicate. And he is. Once Anderson watches the tape of his first two games and realizes that he just needs to get back to getting square to the puck, challenging shooters, and sticking to the top of his crease, his numbers will get back down to respectability. Equally important will be semi-competent defence in front of him, but Anderson has some flaws to correct, too.
Anderson's an enigma of a goaltender. We saw the best of him last season in Ottawa, but he's finished some seasons with a goals-against average closer to four than to two. That might be what we should expect this year considering the team around him, but you'd like to think Anderson can rebound well from an ugly start and get back on his game.
Expectations are low for the Senators this season, and for good reason. But these last two games, despite the final results, have actually left me somewhat pleasantly surprised --especially by the goal scoring. Even if the team continues losing games, it looks like they will indeed remain competitive within them, and hopefully the goals continue to bring fans out of their seats once in a while.
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I find myself pleasantly surprised,
and very cautiously optimistic after the first 2 games. Its actually nice to come into a season with low expectations. The kids are alright, the veteran forwards are leading, the defensive shortcomings and goaltending are under The Paulrus’ microscope. On that note, I’ve also been pleased with the new coaching staff. I had a hate on for Greg Carvel, but it looks like the new staff can actually get the powerplay working respectively and that will go a long way in helping this team.
Da Costa is a tiny beast with a coconut head. He’d best learn to keep it up, else it may be broken.
Great post!
PRAISE ALFIE!!!!
by High Priest of Alfie on Oct 11, 2011 8:11 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
excellent post peter!
Its true. even though we have lost the first two games, there have been positives which have made it easier to not feel like chicken little, and goal scoring is the most prominent. here’s hoping for a big win tonight!
Our greatest liability
Great post Peter.
Everybody seems to be so worried about the offence. So far, the greatest liability seems to be our defence. With Rundblad and Borowiecki sitting on the sidelines and Lee about to sit on the sidelines, it’s time to rethink who should be playing at this point in our rebuild.
Yeah, it’s early but the defensive lapses seem to be happening at an alarming pace here… and show a continuation from last season, where it was really easy to blame the goaltending.
In Karlsson’s case, the poor defence is almost forgiveable because he contributes so much to the offence. However the kid is going on his third year now, and I continue to wonder whether he would be that top six gunner forward we are looking for.
I wonder about Karlsson stepping up as a winger too.
Granted, I’ve never played hockey, so I can’t say. But with the glut on defence, why not try Karlsson up front for a bit? He’s skilled and has a rocket of a shot …
This is a non-sensical idea
It is like teaching Kelly to skate backwards and make him a defenceman because he is good defensively.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
by Adnan on Oct 11, 2011 10:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Glut?
We have been talking about a glut since rookie camp. In fact, we are having a hard time keeping it from looking like a fire drill using the best available. Remember, Cowan was one fo the highest-touted players in pre-season, and the rest in Bingo have varied projected careers in front of them but all have some lessons to learn before coming up. We have to make what we have work.
I think...
…that a glut on defence is not a bad thing to have.
Great post!
I see a lot of positives from the first two games… and naturally there are a few things the team needs to fix. So far I can say that I am happy to have a guy like Paulrus around during this “embryonic season”.
by Los Blancos Chicca on Oct 11, 2011 9:17 AM EDT reply actions
good post
I have been pleasantly surprised and I think it has a lot to do with the lowered expectations. The goal-scoring has been particularly awesome, but also, their ability to not give up. Now, I wouldn’t mind if they could start showing that ability after the 1st or 2nd goal, instead of the 5th, but hey, baby steps, right? :)
Think of the team we had in Jacques Martin’s first year or two. The only real difference is that we have more veteran talent and maybe the prospects aren’t at the same top end level of potential.
It took a while, however, for that whole team to buy in to the system and to become real professionals after the string of hapless coaches who came before (and yes, maybe we give Bowness a bit of a pass given the team he had). I don’t think this team should take as long with veteran stars instead of veteran also rans on the back end and up front to lead the way.
The veterans have to shake off some rust after successive coaches not having a system and communication and the rookies have yet to experience that. I think the rule of thumb is to assess a team after 20 games or so; I htink in Ottawa’s case you may have to put up with some really stinky play in that time frame as they get a bit more coordinated. I’d assess them on the 20 or so game after that.
From Down Goes Brown
On early strategic approaches:
Ottawa Senators – New head coach Paul MacLean has reassured his players that, if he learned one thing while coaching in the Western Conference with the Red Wings for six years, it’s that road games never actually get started until around 9:00 or 9:15 Eastern.
by Be_rad on Oct 11, 2011 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I saw that
Hilarious.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 11, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I have a question
Say there was one or more veterans on the team who were noticeably weaker than young up-and-comers. Why can’t the veterans be sat? I have read other posts that baldly stated that they cant be sat because of their veteran-ness or their salary. I dont understand this – I assume there is a nuance I am missing. Someone help me please.
I am not naming names because tonight is only game three and I dont think its time to start hating yet. So maybe I have just answered my own question. Are veterans not sat because they are given the benefit of the doubt?
I think people are saying that they can’t be sat because of their salaries because the team would in some way be critizied for sitting $3 million (or whatever it is).
Though I’m no expert in the CBA or the cap at all, I had thought I read somewhere that it wasn’t just that you had to be above the floor in your named roster of X number of people, but that the actual product you put on the ice has to reach a certain dollar amount as well. So it could be that sitting a $3 million player and putting in a $500,000 player violates the cap in some way. Again, this is just something I recall reading a few years ago, and I don’t even remember where, so it could be totally wrong.
Maybe this will ring some bells with someone though. :)
Totally wrong
Who you dress doesn’t matter to the cap, it’s who’s on the roster.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 11, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
In addition to Cap floor issues, as outlined by Ibanez_guy, there are asset management issues and insoder politics as well. BM singed these guys and has had a number of misses, especially with his veterans signed. Sitting them is an admission of failure. But there’s also the question of trying to create value for your underwhelming veterans. Who would take Kuba or Gonchar or Phillips even idf we offered them for free, with the way they are playing? Ideally, after a Paulrus system-inspired turnaround, we can get something for the underachievers.
Alos, would we be doing our rookies a favour by bringing them up to a struggling team, or leaving them where they can develop properly and with confidence? Rundblad needs time, for sure, and Mikachu might benefit as well, despite the success of his preseason.
And for a bit more perspective - which teams lost their first 2 games (in regulation) last season?
Notably, Anaheim (99 pts) and Pittsburgh (106 pts) both came out of the first 2 games without a single point.
On the reverse, however, so did Florida and (yep) Ottawa.
here's another take on the veterans issue
If you sit the vets out and they are supposed to be your leaders on the team, what will that do to the young ones, their views of the vets? One thing the coach may not want is to alienate the vets on the team while you yourself is trying to establish your credentials as a new coach on the team and a rookie head coach at that! Gonchar is a very well respected vet and to put him down a peg is not good for moral. You don’t want to embarrass Gonchar in front of the kids.
I have a question. The 11 goals against so far have been blamed on the d’corps so far and rightly so, but what’s everyone’s opinion on how the forwards had played, defensively. Have they been helpful in their defensive zones?
Given that most of the goals are the results of horrific giveaways, I'm having a hard time evaluating the forwards defensively
On the one hand: some of our turnovers are the result of weak gap control, and the forwards are culpable in that. On the other: when Phillips coughs one up from a forecheck, or Gonchar just doesn’t skate, I don’t know what Da Costa (or whoever) could have done differently in those situations.
As usual, I think the final answer is that there’s plenty of blame to go around.
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I don’t know how you can really be down on this team. The Wings are a perennial contender and seem poised to be strong again this year. The Leafs started the season with 5 periods of shutout hockey and in one period we managed to give them a pretty big dent in their armor. I don’t think either team we lost to were slouches.
Just including the last preseason game against Boston in this equation, we’ve shown pretty soundly that this club will not give up, no matter the score or opponent. To me, in a rebuild that is all that really matters. Fight and compete levels. If you can show that much tenacity the wins will come, there is no doubt in my mind. They just need to figure out how to play 60 minutes. Their 1st periods have been alright, the 2nd a trainwreck and the 3rd they’ve scored goals but haven’t been able to close the floodgates on D yet.
I would like to see that fight BEFORE we get in the hole, though
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giving up early goals
… Goes back to the nice close-out to last season. Not sure what the deal is. In the first game against Detroit we came out strong but weren’t rewarded – maybe just bad luck (and bad D).
by west-sider on Oct 11, 2011 4:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Driving Me Nuts
20 players make the lineup. 25 guys on the Roster. 2 games into season. Someone has to sit. I can’t believe how many people think it should be Gonchar, Kuba & Phillips. Does the name Cory Clouston ring a bell? If MacLean were to bench one of these guys, he’d lose the room quicker than Cory would get a Too Many Men penalty.
By virtue of their senior, veteran presence on the roster. They have earned the right to not be a healthy scratch 2 games into the season based on poor play. They have earned the right to work through their struggles. If they’re still playing brutal 10 or 20 games in, and the rookies are playing well, then you introduce ‘maintenance days’ & ‘minor injuries’ as excuses for guys not to play. You don’t embarrass them.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
And yet, if we were to base it on merit, Gonchar should sit
His seniority doesn’t earn him the right to not try. Watching him get blown by on the Bertuzzi goal was disgraceful, and it hasn’t been an isolated incident through two games. Gonchar shouldn’t be embarrassed by a benching — he should be embarrassed by his effort level.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
There's clearly a problem
If “losing the room” is as easy as sitting a veteran who is playing like a bag of shit, then there is a problem. Obviously Cory Clouston wasn’t the problem, because he’s gone now. That leaves us with … Bryan Murray. He seems to believe that playing out the string with whatever bone headed signings he’s made in the off season is a good idea. Melnyk will regret giving him that 3 year extension.
his contract was his reward
After that I think they earn ice-time with their play. We have guys who will play their hearts out – Carkner – who I would much rather plant in the line-up than Gonchar/Phillips (latter just seems to have no confidence anymore).
by west-sider on Oct 11, 2011 4:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Defence???
Hockey is a team game, and it’s a game that the defence starts. The defence are the first to start the play off, usually, so getting the puck at least along the boards to a winger that’s moving is necessary for any team to have success.
With so many of the Dmen joining the rush, this kind of a defence requires the other half of the pairing to be excellent defensively. With the plethora of mistakes coming from the dmen, the entire attack goes awry. Mistakes happen when they aren’t awake and are trying to do too much.
Individually, the forwards seem to be doing OK defensively, but poor Anderson has been by himself so far defending. Our dmen especially Gonchar should stop trying to be 4th forward and just concentrate on moving the puck.
So far, I don’t see any “glut on defence”. So far IMJ, the best two way all around dman is Brian Lee. OY VAY!!!
I don't see how that is true
Karlsson’s defence is better than Lee’s offence.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
I did say “all around”… Karlsson’s offence is great… no problem with that. His defence… not so much.
Don’t you think Karlsson is a better all-round defenceman than Lee? Not sure how Lee is a better two-way guy. Unless you just mean defensively.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
Yeah... two-way needs to be reflective of that
Karlsson might be a “three” defensively, but he’s a “seven” offensively. So even if Lee is a “four” defensively and offensively, he’s not better all-around; he’s just more rounded.
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by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 11, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
What ar the first seven letters?
Do you for one minute think that now that Spezza expends some energy defensively that that make him worse offensively? No, not a bit… if anything it makes him better offensively because we have possession of the puck more due to his efforts.
After 12 years of coaching hockey, I realized that it wasn’t that some players weren’t capable of playing well defensively, it’s just they choose not to expend energy in that area because there are less accolades.
In the NHL the accolades (salary especially) are very handsome for offensive numbers, and not so much for defensive prowess.
No one makes it to the NHL without the “capability” of playing well defensively. It’s just whether they have willingness to expend the energy… or not.
So I have less tolerance than most for players who are weak defensively, because I don’t excuse them for their lack of talent in that area. Some players need to get kicked in the ass for them to realize that they need to put energy into this area of the game.
There’s no reason why Karlsson can’t be great offensively and end up not being a complete liability defensively. What’s the point if he scores alot of points and is still well into the minuses at the end of the game?
Notice what the first seven letters of the word defenceman are!!!
So because Karlsson is presumably lazy, that doesn’t make Brian Lee any better offensively.
What Karlsson’s “effort” out there, the difference in his offensive skills with Lee is more than the difference in his defensive skills with Lee (which is a very slight difference).
I just assume when you call someone “two-way”, it means they are also decent offensively.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
“Do you for one minute think that now that Spezza expends some energy defensively that that make him worse offensively? No, not a bit… if anything it makes him better offensively because we have possession of the puck more due to his efforts.”
I don’t know if I would say “worse”, but if Spezza is spending most of the game back checking, then yeah, I think he won’t be offensively as good because he is expending all of his energy doing other things. Not that he shouldn’t be back checking, I’m just saying…
Karlsson as a forward
He is better suited on defence, where he can dart into the offensive zone more readily. Plus wingers are usually marked more closely right from the faceoff.
Will this help his development?
I was the first one on the “get rid of Lee bandwagon” until this year. He contributes alot to the offence by consistently getting the puck out without the giveaways. And I’m not comparing Lee to Karlsson offensively.
I’m just saying as long as our #1 dman in minutes sucks defensively, we will lose alot… so how about kicking his ass a bit to get better in that area?
Spezza’s turnaround never happened until Hitchcock confronted him with play that way or don’t play (for Team Canada). Suddenly there was some motivation where even Jacques Martin failed before. So what’s the key to getting Karlsson to play better defensively?
Or should they just let him play his top minutes and end up with 70 points and minus 25? Do you think that that will help in his development?
I think you are imagining Karlsson not trying. He is one of the hardest working guys on the Sens. He is only in his third year, and he will get better.
Yes he will try fancy things and he will screw up, but that happens to everyone.
An Ottawa Senators supporter in Toronto, Ontario. I am cool like that.
He's also tiny
The kid doesn’t have a whole lot of weight behind him. He has to learn positional ‘D’ as he doesn’t have the sheer strength to make up for his mistakes like Cowen can. Once Karlsson’s beat, he’s done because he can’t muscle back into the play. This I’m afraid will only get better with time as the little "d’ man fills out.
Common sense is the most evenly distributed quality in all the world.
Everyone thinks they have enough.
I don’t think it’s fair to ignore that later last year I found Karlsson’s d-game was starting to come around. He’s a smart player and is patient with the puck in our end (unlike some panicky vets ahem*Phillips). His main weakness (aside from physical size) seems to be his sometimes over-confidence with the puck. I think that will come.
As far as his plus-minus last year, I recall a slick analysis by Adnan that showed playing alongside some of our vets had as much to do with that. I highly doubt that someone like Clouston would have played him 30ish minutes (as he was) if he had such little confidence in his D game.
by west-sider on Oct 11, 2011 4:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Something's not reconcialing
Karlsson had the 2nd worst +/- on the team last year and yet Cory was playing him lots of minutes. And the first two games so far, same deal with P.M. Eric K must be doing something right in the eyes of his coaches in spite of his -30. Are they allowing him to learn through his mistakes? Or was the net impact a positive one and not as bad as the -30 seemed to imply, like the corsi rating indicated?
by whatsinaname on Oct 11, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd lean towards the second
Karlsson had 45 points last year. 21 of those were on the powerplay. So in terms of net goals, he’s closer to minus-9.
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