Selling from the Cellar: Who goes?
There's no doubt that this season's version of the Ottawa Senators has had its share of struggles. Injury, laziness and odd coaching decisions, combined with an overall lack of cohesiveness, have all taken their toll on the Sens chances of making it to the post season. We're virtually at the half-way point of the season and the playoffs sit painfully far in the distance. Add to this that sportsclubstats.com states that we now have a 0.66% chance of making it to the post season and I think its safe to say there is a strong possibility that the Ottawa Senators will be sellers come deadline day. The question then becomes, however, who do the Sens ship out of town? All of the usual names continue to pop up (Kovalev, Kuba, etc) but who should really go if Bryan Murray has the chance to move them? I'll list some players who may or could be moved below, along with some deals involving similar players from the last three years.
Jarkko Ruutu - A solid third line pest who would add grit to any playoff team. Has a relatively cap-friendly salary.
Similar deal: (2009) Dan Carcillo for Upshall and a 2nd round pick. Note: Carcillo is much younger than Ruutu.
Chris Kelly - Another third liner who has some of the best hockey smarts in the game, but a distinct lack of finish.
Similar deal: (2009) Samuel Pahlsson, Logan Stephenson and a 2009 cond. draft pick for Wisniewski and Kontiola. Note: possible source of a couple young players?
Matt Carkner - A solid third pair defenceman that could add some grit.
Similar deal: (2010) Andrew Alberts for a 3rd round pick
Nick Foligno - A young, hard working player with potential and a friendly cap hit.
Similar deal: (2010) Clarke MacArthur for 3rd round pick and 4th round pick.
Alex Kovalev - A cap hit that would make any team think twice, but an undeniable ability to finish come playoff time.
Similar deal: (2009) Justin Williams for Patrick O'Sullivan and a 2nd round pick. Note: William's cap hit is $3.5 mil
Filip Kuba - Some offensive ability, but hasn't played to his potential. Has a NTC.
Similar Deal: (2008) Marc-Andre Bergeron for a 3rd round pick.
Jason Spezza - Moving him would leave us without a #1 centre, and his huge contract could make him difficult to move besides.
Similar deal: (2008) Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist for Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Halpern, Mike Smith and a 4th round pick.
Chris Phillips - A proven defender nearing the end of his career.
Similar Deal: (2008) Hal Gill for 2nd and 5th round picks.
Brian Lee - Enough said
Similar Deal: Does it matter?
I've included for the most part deals for picks, since, lets face it, it's time for at least a partial rebuild. There are other players who could be moved, as well as some prospects, but I'm tired of typing so I'll leave the rest up to you. Who else could be moved? what could we get in return? Am I way out in left field as far as my "similar deals"? Lets hear your ideas!
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Interesting
I have to say, it would be nice to get rid of Kuba’s cap hit, but the player I would most like to see moved is Milan Michalek. I might be wrong, but I rather have the sense that his contract is the worst per capita (as it were), with the exception of Kovalev, except that, unlike Michalek, Kovalev is gone in April. Gonchar’s contract might seem a bit much right now, but he has one year less on his contract than Michalek does.
The problem, of course, is that it is hard to see who would want Michalek or Gonchar right now; Gonchar, at least, might be attractive at next year’s deadline at which time he would have just one full season left on the contract. Even if Michalek could be moved, a cap hit of at least half his would have to be coming back, I imagine.
Keep the Gonch
He’s good, and moving him now would be “selling low”. No point in sucking up another lousy long term contract for less potential upside.
As for Michalek, seems he has no chemistry with anyone on the team. Just need to find another Marleau or Thornton to make Milan productive again :) Maybe SJ wants him back?
It's not time to give up on Michalek
He’ll be fully recovered next year, and should have his speed back. If he’s still putting up similar numbers, then he’s gone the way of Cheechoo. But I don’t think he has… I just think a major knee injury takes a while to recover from.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I agree
I didn’t include him on the list because
a) his long contract and
b) the guy can still play hockey, he just needs the time to recover. Just look at Jared Cowen; last season was a write off, but this year he’s back to playing great.
Fair enough
To be fair, I don’t want to give up on Michalek; but if the team could move him and get something out of it, I wouldn’t object, that’s all. Besides, if he recovers fully by next season we’ll need his 20+ goals, since I don’t think our offense is going to improve dramatically by then.
The problem with Michalek is that this isn’t the first knee issue he’s had. He’s apparently had quite a few surgeries on them, so him getting back to 100% isn’t necessarily a given I would think.
by modsuperstar on Jan 10, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
I vote for Phillips
The guy is done. He is a nice guy and all, but I’d rather give one of the young defencemen a spot next year, Phillips is so much more infuriating than Gonchar because with Gonchar there is at least the hope of “some” offensive productions.
Dump him for a pick or let him go. Don’t trade him for a bad contract past this year though, that would be just awful. :/
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
I love Phillips
But I don’t see where he fits on this team moving forward. I could be mistaken, though.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 5, 2011 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
If he's willing to take a discount
I think he should stay. He’d be a good mentor for sure.
However, if a great deal came along, I’d move him in a
hearbeat.
Black Aces
Milks makes a decent point in his most recent post: If Phillips is traded or he walks away over the summer, who mentors all these young defencemen? It’d be tough to convince most veteran d-men to sign onto a mentoring role on this team next season, you know?
... Sergei Gonchar?
Luke Richardson?
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 6, 2011 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
This deal needs to happen
Some Rangers fan posted this back in December. To summarize:
To Sens: Frolov and White
To Rangers: Kovalev
I’m thinking this makes sense for Ottawa now even more so since Spezza is out (White used to center Alfie and Hossa if I recall correctly).
Of course, White would need to be recalled from AHL before the trade to ensure Ottawa doesn’t get stuck with 1/2 his salary & cap if another team grabs him on re-entry waivers…
Well I guess it couldn't hurt
All 3 are expiring contracts. Frolov has potential and has had a decent career but has terrible numbers so far.
But there really isn’t much to lose with trying though.
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
What's the point of this though?
Expiring contract for expiring contracts. White’s played himself out of the league and Frolov is a younger Kovy with less skill and less heart. This doesn’t help the team in the short or long term.
Cannot play with 'em, cannot win with 'em, cannot coach with 'em. Cant do it.
Upside?
Guess I’m thinking that Frolov and White have the potential to play better in Ottawa than in NY.
White had some chemistry with Alfie long back and you often see players reunited and quickly clicking again. White had 73 points just two years ago in Atlanta (granted probably most were thanks to Kovalchuk) but seems like he’d be a low cost fill in for Spezza while he’s out and can’t hurt Sens chances at a good draft pick :)
Frolov I liked in LA (I actually live in Socal now) and I have no idea why his output is down in NY. He’s younger than Kovalev, and he’s a left wing (Sens had been hunting for top-6 LW’s forever when Heatley was around… probably more so now with Michalek)
I figure Kovalev’s gone after the season so why not get something for him before then? There’s potential upside for Ottawa in this. Do you think Kov could bring more in return?
I just don't think trading for Frolov gives the Sens any advantage in signing him this off-season
Assuming you think signing him at all is a good thing; I don’t think it is.
As for the argument about White’s 70-point season in Atlanta, I see your point but people said the same things about Cheechoo and his potential to bounce back. The difference being Cheechoo is a has-been and White is a never-was, as in never was that talented. And Alfie is a much different player now, he no longer has the same level of ability to make players around him better. I just don’t see any upside for Ottawa in the trade.
Kovy isn’t a real asset at present time, but I’d rather wait and see what the market is at the deadline. Strange things happen when GMs get desperate.
Cannot play with 'em, cannot win with 'em, cannot coach with 'em. Cant do it.
"strange things happen when GMs get desperate"
Amen. Lets hope they go crazy when it comes to Ottawa! With Kovy, I think there will be interest. He seems to phone it in during the regular season, but has gone at pretty much a point-per-game pace in the playoffs for the last few years. Adding a player with an undeniable ability to put up points in the playoffs is always a welcome asset. Not to mention that, even though it’s a large one, his contract is expiring.
pro-rated it's not a huge contract
at the deadline it’ll be prorated and only around 1.3m cap hit or something. lots of teams will be able to afford it. and for a guy like kovalev, i’m sure they will want it. hell maybe even montreal will want him back.
Awesome post
I’d like to think Kuba is worth a little more than Bergeron, but the way he’s been playing, it doesn’t seem that way.
I voted for Ruutu, because it seems like he’s a prime candidate to be made available, and he’s actually someone who could provide very good work for a competing team. Also, he’s still popular in Pittsburgh and Vancouver, so either of them would be the front-runners.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 5, 2011 11:08 PM EST reply actions
Thanks!
I agree with you on Ruutu, there will definately be some interest in him come deadline day. As for Kuba, I’d hope for a 2nd rounder (that seems to be the standard these days) but I had trouble finding a player similar to Kuba, unless I missed someone obvious. I through MA Bergeron in because he’s relatively good offensively and a liability in his own end.
Just the UFA's
So Ruutu, Phillips, Kovalev if anyone will take him for a 7th round pick or something.
I’d be inclined to keep the rest of the team around….there’s two kinds of rebuilds: complete tear-down, or on the fly. So far Bryan Murray has done enough to justify an on the fly rebuild. His drafting is beyond reproach, and his trades and free agent signings have made the team bad enough to compete for a lottery pick.
So the team is on pace to be able to draft a Sean Couturier or Gabriel landeskog (please God) while still keeping overpaid but useful ROLE PLAYERS like Fisher, Michalek, Kelly, Neil etc.
The team will return to contention faster if we keep our players until their contract is about to expire, and then trade them at the deadline for picks/prospects.
Buying out Kubas since July 2010
by GelatinousMutantCoconut on Jan 8, 2011 10:59 PM EST reply actions
I’m probably the last person you want to hear from since I’m a fan of team that just beat yours.
It seems to me that the best thing the Sens can do is build with youth in mind. I assume Kovalev will be allowed to walk, given his age and the fact he’s been so injury prone the last 2 years. While Gonchar has been a very good defenseman throughout his career, especially with the Penguins, I wondered about the wisdom of the Sens signing an old one as a FA and letting Volchenkov leave.
Rocking the Red for teams on the banks of the Potomac and at the Gateway Arch and Singing the Blues about Hockey.
Good points
I think the team is rebuilding with youth in mind, at least from now on. There’s no way Kovalev gets re-signed, of that you can be sure; if the Sens could trade him for a couple hockey sticks right now, they would. During the stretch this season leading up to the trade deadline, it’ll basically be a fire sale in Ottawa, where everything must go and we’re just looking for picks or prospects. Some players will be untouchable, obviously, and others we’ll price out of people’s budget, but I think a few will end up dealt away. At least a couple.
As for the Gonchar signing, it sure hasn’t looked good so far, but I think it was done with youth in mind. The idea, in theory, was likely to have Gonchar steward our young offensive defenceman, including Karlsson in particular this season but also Campoli and Lee, as well as Rundblad and Wiercioch if those work out, and teach them how to play as an offensive defenceman. We’ll see how it pans out, but his contract will be up at around the time we’ll be coming out of the rebuild (and should be in contention again, hypothetically), so it’s not an outrageous risk to have taken.
An Ottawa Senators fan blogging at www.silversevensens.com
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 17, 2011 9:17 AM EST up reply actions

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