Mock expansion: The Ottawa Senators protected forwards
by Peter Raaymakers on Sep 2, 2010 7:00 AM EDT
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PrintIf you've been following the SB Nation NHL mock expansion draft, by now you probably know a few things: We're pretending the league is expanding to 32 teams, so the fake Winnipeg Jets (managed by Gabe Desjardins from Behind the Net) and the fake Quebec Nordiques (managed by the Globe and Mail's James Mirtle) will be trying to get the best out of what the rest of the league leave behind.
So far, the fake general managers of the Ottawa Senators (the writers here at Silver Seven) have release the protected lists for goalies and for defencemen. Today, we move on to the forwards.
There are a few ground rules to go over. First off, any player who's appeared in 49 or fewer NHL games is automatically exempt; for this reason, there was no need for us to protect Zack Smith or Bobby Butler. Secondly, we had to make sure to leave "at least two forwards who appeared in 40 games last season OR 70 games in the last two seasons combined." This wasn't a problem for us.
Alright, let's get things started with easiest and then second-easiest decisions:
Team can't give up Spezza for nothing. He's going to be protected. He's paid a hefty salary, but he earns it (at least as much as anyone in the NHL "earns" multiple millions of dollars). There are people out there who might want to see him traded, but you're not going to find any of those people fake-managing this Senators team.
Oh yeah, Alfie's not going anywhere. He's getting older, sure, and maybe he's going to start fading, but Alfredsson's still a huge part of the Senators leadership, scoring, powerplay, penalty killing... basically, everything.
Here we get the controversy. I will begin by saying this was not a consensus decision; in fact, Kovalev wasn't on the protected list at first, and was only added as a last-minute adjustment. He had a fairly abysmal year last year, and is making another $5M this season, both factors that make it unlikely he'll be selected and beg the question: Why is he protected?
Because he's skilled. The Senators need skill. Kovalev is likely as good as any player the Senators can otherwise acquire at this point in the off-season, and if he plays as he's able to, be could be miles ahead of some unnamed replacement. His contract is up after this year, so there are no long-term obligations to him and he's got the added incentive of playing for a job next season. We elected to protect him because he is (or at least should be) a top-six forward, something the franchise has in much fewer supply than bottom-six players.
Michalek had a rough season last year, but that's no reason to leave him unprotected. If he can bounce back from the injuries that kept him down, there's no reason we shouldn't expect him to better the scoring totals he had last season. And he's on a long-term, relatively cap-friendly contract.
Second-line centre, or at least close to it. People might complain about the contract he's got with the Senators, but $4.2M is about market rate for a player who brings what Fisher does.
Neil had a heck of a bounce-back season last year, scoring ten goals and more than doubling his point production from the year before. He seems to buy into Cory Clouston's system, and that's good. And Neil brings something no other forwards on the Senators roster can bring: Hitting and fighting.
Ruutu's cheap, his contract is up after this year, he's effective, and he put up decent numbers offensively. There's little reason to leave him unprotected.
Foligno took a bit of a step backwards last season, and still leaves much to be desired in terms of consistency. But he's still a good young player, and he was just signed to a very reasonable two-year contract.
The playoffs last year showed that Regin is the closest thing the Senators have to a first-line scoring prospect. And with the incredible contract he's just signed, there's no way we're letting him walk.
*****
So, who does that leave unprotected?
Chris Kelly, for one. This isn't necessarily a matter of Kelly being ineffective, it's just that what he offers isn't as rare as that of the players we've elected to protect. With a number of good young centremen in the Sens' system, losing Kelly wouldn't be the end of the world.
Although we did leave one of those young centres unprotected, in Jesse Winchester. While he's been good for stretches, it looks like Winchester will turn into nothing more than a fourth-line player in the league, and a middling one at that. He's given management little reason to invest much more in him at this time.
Winger Ryan Shannon is also unprotected, in large part due to the tremendously disappointing season he had last year. He's struggled to prove he can be an NHL player through his entire career, and now that he's finally got his name on a one-way contract, he looks less deserving of it than when he was fighting for one.
Finally, Francis Lessard is the final expansion draft-eligible player on the Senators roster. Signed to a two-way contract, Lessard is an enforcer expected to spend much of the season with the Binghamton Senators.
So to sum it all up, here's where the Ottawa Senators stand in preparation for tomorrow's mock expansion draft:
PROTECTED LIST
Goalies (1): Brian Elliott
Defencemen (5): Sergei Gonchar, Filip Kuba, Chris Phillips, Chris Campoli, Erik Karlsson
Forwards (9): Jason Spezza, Alex Kovalev, Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Michalek, Mike Fisher, Chris Neil, Jarkko Ruutu, Nick Foligno, Peter Regin
LEFT UNPROTECTED
Goalies: Pascal Leclaire
Defencemen: Matt Carkner, Brian Lee, David Hale
Forwards: Chris Kelly, Jesse Winchester, Ryan Shannon, Francis Lessard
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Kelly and Leclaire will be the ones who get drafted. Book it.
Kelly to the Jets before round 15, and Leclaire to Quebec in the Top 10.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Sep 2, 2010 9:00 AM EDT reply actions
It depends who's left unprotected
I could see the Bruins tossing Thomas to the wolves and I’m sure he’d get drafted over Leclaire. I think Kelly has a better shot because he’s been much more consistent.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Yeah, there are some good goalies available
Budaj, Hedberg, Giguere, Auld, Huet, Toivonen, Osgood, Macdonald, Clemmensen… Leclaire may still go, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if someone elected to pick Lee or Carkner instead.
And yeah, Kelly will probably go, but it came down to a choice: Would we rather lose Kelly or Kovalev? I’d rather lose neither, but if one’s got to go, it’s got to be Kelly.
by Peter Raaymakers on Sep 2, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Quebec would be all over LeClaire for the francophone factor. That is always a consideration for Montreal and Quebec, maybe more so then any other team in the NHL. A pairing of Giggy and LeClaire would probably go over really well there.
by modsuperstar on Sep 2, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
The ONLY reason to keep Kovalev is because he comes off the books next year. I’m still not sure it was the right move.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Well, he’s also a more dynamic player than Kelly. And we have a pretty good number of third- and fourth-line centres who can step in for Kelly.
I’m not anti-Kelly, don’t get me wrong. I just think he’s more easily replaced than Kovalev.
by Peter Raaymakers on Sep 2, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
No argument from me on either of those points
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Shouldn’t the number of defensemen who have been protected be five?
I might have left Ruutu unprotected over Kelly, but unlike with the defensemen there’s not much to argue about your selections here. I agree that we’re not getting much better than Kovalev for available forwards had he been left unprotected – and you know if he were left unprotected one of the two mock teams would scoop him up right away (though I’d have to see who else is available on other sites). I don’t think anyone would be really disappointed to see Shannon or Winchester go. Now if only Murray could actually trade them…
I agree with you on Ruutu and Kelly
Finding a guy like Ruutu is easy, and since Ottawa is going to let him go next season why keep him?
Mariners and Senators fan in Miami, covering the team in Ottawa at Silver Seven
by Alexander Calloway on Sep 2, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Is this a joke?
Ruutu is far more difficult to replace than Kelly. Finding a try hard fourth liner is much easier than finding a disruptor who scores 15 goals and 30 points. Ruutu plays a role which is much harder to replace than Kelly. Let’s get real, Battleship can be replaced by any stone handed Junior C player.
by ojc on Sep 3, 2010 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Further to that, I’d be very happy if the Senators re-signed Ruutu. He’s 34, so he might be looking for a contract that’s out of Ottawa’s price range, but the guy brings a lot to the table for what we’ve been paying him.
by Peter Raaymakers on Sep 3, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Is that pirate mustache picture of Mike Fisher seriously the best one we've got?
That picture pops up all the time.
It's the one attached to his profile on SBN
Every player has a photo and stats and other details in a database. It’s all automated.
A snake taking the pass - Silver Seven
I wish he would grow a pirate moustache
by Peter Raaymakers on Sep 3, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
My predicted combined teams of Quebec and Winnipeg
G – Ondrej Pavelec ($1.150m)
G – Tim Thomas ($5.000m)
G – Erik Ersberg ($0.750m)
G – Rick DiPietro ($4.500m)
G – Martin Biron ($0.875m)
G – Brian Boucher ($0.925m)
G – Antti Niemi ($2.000m)
G – Ty Conklin ($1.300m)
G – Mike Smith ($2.200m)
D – Steve Montador ($1.550m)
D – Steve Staios ($2.700m)
D – Anton Babchuk ($1.400m)
D – Nick Boynton ($0.500m)
D – Adam Foote ($1.250m)
D – Rostislav Klesla ($2.975m)
D – Ruslan Salei ($1.100m)
D – Jason Strudwick ($0.725m)
D – Marek Zidlicky ($4.000m)
D – Roman Hamrlik ($5.500m)
D – Ryan Parent ($0.925m)
D – Bryce Salvador ($2.900m)
D – Milan Jurcina ($1.000m)
D – Matt Carkner ($0.700m)
D – Brett Lebda ($1.450m)
D – Shane O’Brien ($1.600m)
F – Ryan Carter ($0.625m)
F – Jason Blake ($4.000m)
F – Eric Boulton ($0.650m)
F – Greg Campbell ($1.100m)
F – Matt Ellis ($0.625m)
F – Ales Kotalik ($3.000m)
F – Tom Kostopoulos ($0.916m)
F – Tomas Kopecky ($1.200m)
F – Daniel Winnik ($0.950m)
F – Ethan Moreau ($2.000m)
F – Krys Barch ($0.837m)
F – Fabian Brunnstrom ($0.675m)
F – Patrick Eaves ($0.750m)
F – Shawn Horcoff ($5.500m)
F – Cory Stillman ($3.533m)
F – Byron Bitz ($0.687m)
F – Justin Williams ($3.500m)
F – Kyle Brodziak ($1.150m)
F – Scott Gomez ($7.357m)
F – Sergei Kostitsyn ($0.550m)
F – Brian Rolston ($5.062m)
F – Tim Kennedy ($0.550m)
F – Chris Kelly ($2.125m)
F – Daniel Carcillo ($1.075m
F – Taylor Pyatt ($1.000m)
F – Andrew Ebbett ($0.500m)
F – Eric Tangradi ($0.845m)
F – Craig Adams ($0.550m)
F – Scott Nichol ($0.760m)
F – Matt D’Agostini ($0.550m)
F – Sean Bergenheim ($0.700m)
F – Colby Armstrong ($3.000m)
F – Rick Rypien ($0.550m)
F – Dave Steckel ($1.100m)
F – Boyd Gordon ($0.800m)
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Sep 7, 2010 8:06 AM EDT reply actions
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