Projected Opening Night Lineup & Training Camp Battles
by Buz Killington on Aug 8, 2010 5:17 PM EDT
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With training camp on the horizon and few foreseeable roster acquisitions left for Bryan Murray to make this summer, it's time to take a look at the probable lineup the Senators will be icing come October 8th.
We'll start by identifying the roster positions that, barring major changes, are essentially locked up, and then look at which prospects and new additions could make a push for any remaining spots on the big club.
Forwards
Regin - Spezza - Alfie
Michalek - Fisher - Kovalev
Foligno - C - RW
Ruutu - Kelly - Neil
In my mind, these guys are all guaranteed to be in the lineup against Buffalo on opening night, though perhaps not in this configuration. Regardless, that leaves only three forward spots up for grabs, assuming the Sens roll with 13 forwards as they usually do.
Candidates:
Jesse Winchester (C)
Ryan Shannon (RW)
Zach Smith (C)
Roman Wick (RW)
Bobby Butler (LW)
These are the 5 players that I think have the best chance to grab the remaining forward spots. Shannon and Winchester have the obvious edge, as they not only have more NHL experience, but also one-way contracts as well. Zach Smith has also looked like an NHL-caliber third liner in his time with big club, and should slot in as the 13th forward.
Thus our forward ranks would remain largely status quo from last season. They form 4 solid lines.
Shannon, however, has not proven to be a consistent producer at the NHL level, showcasing only occasional bursts of speed and remaining largely innocuous for games at a time. Winchester, while a steady defensive presence and a monster on the boards, has shown limited offensive upside.
In Wick and Butler we find our most NHL-ready offensive prospects. I know little about Wick, other than that some Danish scouts have considered him a superior talent to Regin. Talk around the blogosphere seems to indicate that fans expect he could make a push for the big team.
Butler, who saw some time with the big club last year, comes as a highly accomplished NCAA player and boasts good speed and a hard shot.
If either of these players have a tremendous showing at training camp, or if the Senators look to increase the scoring potential of the third line, they could find themselves in the lineup for the opener.
On the other hand, Clouston has shown an affinity for both Winchester and Shannon, and their one-way deals make their grips on those roster spots pretty strong.
Any other forwards hoping to play their way into the top 12 will face an uphill battle to unseat the incumbents and claim a spot.
Defence
Phillips - Gonchar
Kuba - Karlsson
Campoli - Carkner
Lee
Their don't appear to be any openings on defence, so anybody hoping to see Jared Cowen at Scotiabank place on opening night will likely be dissapointed.
For one thing, all 7 (except Karlsson) of those guys have one-way contracts. Lee is a borderline NHLer at this point, and I will admit I am not bullish on his future. But until he is waived or traded, I will assume that he is going to be on the roster because I dont think Murray signed him to a one-way deal to have him play in Binghampton.
Cowen does appear to fill the need for another physical defensive defencemen, however, I do not see him in the mix until next year. Campoli's one-year contract suggests that he will be let go next year to make room for Cowen.
Most of the franchises high upside prospects are found on defence, with Cowen, Runblad, Wiercoch, and Hale all expected to be NHL caliber defencemen. However, it looks like 2011 will be the first chance any of them get a chance to seriously compete for a roster spot.
Goalie
Leclaire
Elliot
No room for Mike Brodeur or uber-prospect Lehner on the big club, but they will be better served in a Binghampton timeshare anyways. The Sens will likely also go with some sort of timeshare unless and until either tender can grab the reigns take over the #1 job.
Few Battles
On paper, there will be few roster positions up for grabs come September. If you believe, as I do, that the Sens will be reluctant to bury any one-way contracts in the minors, then the only open spot is the 13th forward spot.
What do you think?
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Unless Murray makes room
There is always the chance of trading some of our depth guys to make room on our roster and our salary cap. At the same time, I would hardly say Winch and Shannon are locks to dress. Shannon was the chief resident in the press box last year and the team has only gotten deeper. Winchester has proved that he has absolutely no hands. That third line could very easily be Foligno-Smith-Butler/Wick. And I for one would much prefer that. Shannon and Winchester have shown they are nothing more than energy guys. Let’s see if our prospects can do more than that while they are still lurking in the shadows ready to step into the lineup if the rooks falter. I think a deal must be coming involving defencemen. Murray said at the end of the season he expects Gryba to be the Carkner of this year and earnign the hardest working player at the Sens development camp only bodes well for him grinding so hard in camp that he can’t be sent down like Carkner last year. Cowen and Weircoch both also think they can make this team. Weircoch gave up his college eligibility for it. I’m not saying all three of those guys will make the team, but I would be surprised to see none of them stick with the big club. Hence the need for Murray to trade at least one defenceman.
Winchester would be a good fit on the 4th line
Except, of course, that the Senators have the best (and most expensive) fourth line in the league.
If Gryba is this year's Carkner, then Lee is this year's Schubert
The Sens won’t pay a guy an NHL salary to play in the AHL, even if it means they have to get rid of him on recallable waivers. Still, I think there’s an appetite for a young, cheap defender like Lee out there, even if we don’t get much in return for him.
by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 9, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, there are differen factors at work.
If Butler, Wick or any of the other’s don’t dominate at camp, then you have to go with a Foligno-Smith-Winchester 4th line. If Butler or Wick do one-up Winnie, then you have to give him a spot and maybe give that line a bit more minutes.
But the best case- scenario is Wick being the main fill-in forward.
As for your defense pairings…I certainly hope not. Kuba-Karlsson failed miserably as a pairing. Put the Kid with Phillips, who can be the veteran stay at home anchor. Gonchar is old enough to take care of himself…sort of. Actually, paired with Sarge, Kuba would no longer have to be the man on his pairing. He could just relax and play his passive all-around game.
Buying out Kubas since July 2010
by GelatinousMutantCoconut on Aug 9, 2010 3:34 AM EDT reply actions
I disagree about Kuba-Karlsson
I wouldn’t say that combo failed at all. It might be worth trying again, in fact. But I’d most rather see a Karlsson-Gonchar first pairing, and then a Phillips-Kuba second pairing. Overloaded, for sure, but I like the makeup.
by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 9, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Why don’t we try Phillips/Lee? Lee played his best being paired with Phillips, so maybe he’s the one that could use the hand holding here. Maybe we have Phillips make Lee look like a serviceable NHL d-man long enough to ship him off somewhere.
by modsuperstar on Aug 9, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
It might be a stretch to say Kuba-Karlsson failed
But the fact is that Karlsson didn’t really blossom until he was separated from Kuba and paired with Sutton. I don’t think that Kuba’s style of play meshes with Karlsson well at all. Karlsson needs a guy who isn’t going to pinch and can support him physically. That’s not Kuba, that’s Phillips.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
The great Shannon mystery!!!
The biggest mystery was why did they resign Shannon after he was so useless in the playoffs that he became a press box watcher. Say what you want about small guys with speed, but if they are not built like the so called brick --house, it’s just too easy to knock them off the puck. As much as it’s nice to have his speed, Shannon is no match for the better defencemen in the NHL… This is why the tiny players don’t make it in the NHL.
I guess that Murray probably was not confident that either Wick and Butler would be ready for this year, and that the plan is to build a championship AHL team for development purposes.
It looks like we will go with the same lineup as last year, unless a trade is looming. Several teams shuffle their 3rd and 4th lines around and make roster moves after training camp, so we’ll see what develops. The coaches say that there are open spots, but they always say that just to motivate guys…
Mostly it looks like the competition is for who will get called up first when the inevitable injuries happen. With Kuba and Michalek coming off of rehab, they are wait-and-see kind of guys, so we need extra bodies around. A team can’t just go with 13 forwards and six D. This is why in this salary cap era, the draft and having a deep prospect pool is more important than ever.
I think that signing had a lot to do with Clouston
He’d made good use of Shannon in the AHL, so he probably told Murray he could make good use of the kid in the NHL. Unfortunately, his skills haven’t really transferred yet, but that could certainly have something to do with the concussion he’d sustained.
by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 9, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
What's the rush?
Let our rookies develop and keep the team we have now. They did not sign a true fighter for nothing in Binghamton. Cowen might be ready after New Years but then again let’s see how the team is performing and injuries. All those guys will probably get a chance this year at some point but like I’ve said before, this year they will make the playoffs and next year they will be that much better. The east is not that strong that we need to worry and they do play Washington and Pittsburgh extremely well. I am always looking forward to those games and we also have the Preds who will have improved from the Chicago purge.
by Hockey Playoff Run SensFan on Aug 9, 2010 11:33 AM EDT reply actions
The rush is that Daniel Alfredsson is a 37 year old man and will not be playing at a first line level for much longer. The rush is that Gonchar has two years of good hockey left in him. The rush is that this could be Phillips last season with the team. I think those are three major cogs which might not exist in three years when the younger guys are truly ready, but if we can squeeze more juice out of the kids than Winch and Shannon and other guys who have proven to be fourth liners, then maybe we have the depth this year to get Alf his cup. I would not say that Ottawa has the luxury of time if they wish to capitalize on their current leadership core.
by ojc on Aug 9, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
The Sens rank 6th
In terms of mean age. So yeah, we should adopt a more win-now mentality. Certainly most of the older teams seem poised to make a run this season (with two obvious exceptions, one of which is surprisingly old):
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 9, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s my opinion:
Regin-Spezza-Alfredsson
Foligno-Fisher-Kovalev
Michalek-Z.Smith-Wick
Ruttuu-Kelly-Neil
Phillips Karlsson
Gonchar Kuba
Campoli/Cowen Carkner
I believe Foligno had the best chemistry of any player on the line with Fisher and Kovalev last year. I’m hoping that Wick can make the roster and add some offense. I like Zach Smith over Winchester as he brings more to the table. I wouldn’t touch the fourth line as everyone saw how valuable they were in the playoffs.
On D, I think Karlsson needs to play with a bigger body who uses his size like Phillips. Yes I do worry a little about Gonchar and Kuba but that is only if Kuba can’t regain his old form. I believe the team will give Cowen every chance to make the team and he might even get some games before they decide what to do. If you are looking to the future it would be tough to break in two rookies Cowen & Runblad next year but obviously trades can happen.
The rest of the players are expendable or depth players:
Lee – Expendable especially with recent signings on D
Gyrba – Bingo, wasn’t overly impressed watching him at rookie camp
Winchester – Depth player, unfortunately no hands and offensive ability
Shanon – I like as a depth player because he can play any line
Butler – Bingo, didn’t stand out at all in rookie camp
Michalek and Foligno need to be flipped, otherwise I agree with you almost completely
I believe Cowen was going to get a shot, but I think mono has killed that. I’d be surprised if he makes the team this year.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I hate to get into semantics
But I don’t understand why people sometimes refer to the Ruutu/Kelly/Neil line as the 4th line.
They routinely play far more minutes than the Zach Smith/Jesse Winchester.tandem, and if Foligno is slated to join those two (which he is), then that would make them the 4th line.
Nevermind the fact that the phrase “3rd-line” has always meant “checking line”, all one needs to do is look at how Clouston deployed his players in the Pittsburgh series to realize that Zach Smith is no more of a 3rd-liner than Winchester.
Take the triple-overtime Game 5, for example:
Of course things could change, but why predict the drastic shakeup? Nevermind how much salary is being spent on the Ruutu/Kelly/Neil line compared to the Foligno/Smith/Shannon(Winchester) unit.
Again, my complaint is rather petty, so please regard my post as being nothing more than anal-retentiveness.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 9, 2010 3:50 PM EDT reply actions
For me, it's about offensive capability
But it truly is semantics.
A line like Foligno-Kelly-Wick probably has more scoring punch than Ruutu-Kelly-Neil, and therefore they should play on the third line. Ruutu-Z.Smith-Neil is a perfectly good fourth line, and if the minutes were split evenly between those two I would not complain one bit.
Clouston has shown a willingness to roll four lines when feasible, and I think that’s a huge advantage over the course of an 82-game season. The combinations I listed give the team that option, but I don’t think keeping Ruutu, Kelly, and Neil together allows that, as your numbers clearly point out.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
My whole stupid argument could easily be resolved
If the NHL would just return to the days of three lines instead of four.
Good luck getting the PA to sign off on that concession.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 9, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
The Ruutu/Kelly/Neil line
scored well during the playoffs
I don't get...
…why people are placing Ruutu-Kelly-Neil as the 4th line. They all played 3rd line minutes last and I would expect them to have more ice-time than guys like Winchester and Smith this coming year.
Hey, welcome to the blog!
I would agree that as a line, Ruutu-Kelly-Neil is preferable to something like Foligno-Winchester-Shannon/Z.Smith/Whoever.
However, I view Ruutu and Neil as more fourth liners (Ruutu can still get his PK minutes; I see no reason to remove that duty) and Kelly as more of a third line player. Juggling those lines could give the team more scoring depth and lets our fourth line play more minutes — which I think benefits the entire team.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Aug 12, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey thanks. I’ve actually been coming here for over a year, and for some reason never bothered signing up for comments, but changed my mind because it seems that people tend to have more of a level head here (some other forums had turned me off from the idea for a while).
I think the toughest part about that line and its future is that they may have all had career years last year, which they might not be able to repeat. Hopefully their chemistry continues because they make such a great pest line. I could see them needing to be split up. A guy like Foligno might look good on the 3rd line since right now he may find it hard to crack the top 6, but definitely should not be a 4th liner.
by Barnsley Pal on Aug 12, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I'm glad you joined
The more level headed comments we get, the better our discussions get.
The tough part for me is that I could see Foligno or Wick (or maybe both when I start getting super optimistic) getting 20 goals on Kelly’s wing, but I don’t see either Neil or Ruutu approaching that — I agree that they both had career years last year. However, I could see Ruutu bagging 10, maybe 12, playing with Z. Smith on the 4th line… provided they get enough minutes. It’s a tricky situation, and I hope Murray moves some bodies to cement the lines a little more.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Down on Ruutu?
Why is everyone hating on Ruutu so much? He scored 12 goals and added 14 assists last year, which I would say is a pretty solid season. He plays the PK. He’s money in the shootout. He’s a huge pest and gets other teams’ players off their game. He shows his hands whenever he gets a chance. Hands are what makes Ruutu a third liner. When Kelly and Neil and Winch have the puck bounce off their stick Ruutu is able to put it in the back of the net more times than any of those three. I think Ruutu is a much more valuable player than Neil or Kelly and it owuld be a mistake to not resign him after this season.
“Hands are what makes Ruutua third linerhungry”
</fixed
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 12, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I just put the Ruutu Kelly Neil line as the fourth line on paper. It doesn’t necessarily mean that they are the fourth line and get the least minutes. As someone said Clouston likes to roll his lines which is a good thing over the course of a long season. However, in key situations you have to go with the guys that are playing well that night like Clouston did with the trio in the OT playoff game against Pitt.
For me, for the Sens to do well need a balanced attack. I loved what the Kelly line brought offensively because not much was expected of them. If you start expecting offense from them on a regular basis you might be dissapointed. Their job is not to score but to put pressure on the other team by finishing checks and playing responsible. Any goals they get are a bonus.
I believe if Winchester is on a line then yes that line probably should be considered the fourth line due to his lack of offensive ability. I just don’t see him helping the teams balanced attack unless he is in a roll similar to Neil and Ruutu and finishing ALL of his checks while playing with an edge. That is why the two year deal really surprised me.
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