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Senators blog roundtable: Dog days of summer

Welcome to hopefully the first of many monthly Ottawa Senators blog roundtables, with Bobby Zijiac from SenShot, SLC from Five for Smiting, Graeme Nichols from The 6th Sens, and, at least this time, yours truly from Silver Seven (we'll probably have a rotation of authors from Silver Seven take part).

This month, well into the off-season, we're talking mostly about free agents, but with a side of speculation and prognostication on next season's lineup. So here goes:

1.Give me your delayed reaction on the Sergei Gonchar signing? Fair or foul? Do you like the contract or do you think it's too long for a person of that age?

Peter, Silver Seven: I still like the Sergei Gonchar signing. Is it longer term than I'd like? Yeah. Is it more expensive than I'd like? Yeah. But Gonchar was one of the best offensive defencemen in the league last season, so I think it's a risk worth taking. Even with some decline in his abilities, Gonchar can still provide--and he should definitely give us a huge powerplay boost. It's tough to predict who he'll be playing with, but he'll most certainly teach Erik Karlsson a lot about controlling a powerplay in the NHL, and that will be great for the kid's development (especially after we saw last season that Karlsson isn't a defensive liability, either). It does concern me that I'm using many of the same justifications for the Gonchar signing as I did for the Alex Kovalev signing a year ago, but not too much.

Star-divide

SLC, Five for Smiting: My delayed reaction to the Gonch is pretty much the same as my immediate reaction: Um...yay? His (potential) impact on Karlsson's learning curve makes me absolutely moist not to mention the instant upgrade to the PP. BUT...I can't help but worry about the overall softness of the D now that A-Train and Sutton (apparently) are gone. It's all well and good for The Bryan to say "I want other teams to block our shots for a change", but I have this recurring nightmare of Colby Armstrong or Kris Versteeg turning 55 into a long red smear on the forecheck before playing keep-away for ten minutes. My head says this was an awesome signing (if one year too long). My gut says one of the kids Pete mentions damn well better make the team out of camp to add some testicular fortitude, or we're screwed. I can't help it. It's Pavlovian.

Bobby, SenShot: For me, signing a top flight offensive defenseman was Bryan Murray's top priority all along. He was able to snatch the best one on the market by the name of Sergei Gonchar. Although I'm a tad bit frightened with his defensive play in the Montreal series, his contract is understandable and he should be able to earn every penny of it. Watch out for Gonch and Alex Kovalev next year on the Power Play.

Graeme, The 6th Sens: For all of the power play inefficiencies for the past few seasons, I'm surprised that Gonchar's addition hasn't been more well received by the Ottawa faithful. Whether or not you feel that the contract may have been one year too long for a player of Gonchar's age, it was a necessary evil that ensured that he'd leave a Conference rival to sign in Ottawa. And at $5.5 million per annum, it's fair dollar for a player who is going to be playing top pairing minutes.

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2. What are your thoughts on the Chris Campoli contract?

Peter: I'm happy with the Chris Campoli signing, though. It's a little more than I was expecting, but I really liked what I saw from Campoli towards the end of last season and into the playoffs, and it's such a short contract that it just gives us an opportunity to see if his hernia-ridden season last year wasn't an indication of his potential. It's a small price to pay (relatively speaking) to find out what we gave up a first-round draft pick for. And he's still a restricted free agent after this season, anyway.

SLC: Now that the deal is done, I can say absolutely and without doubt or prejudice that Murray overpaid. $1.4M for a small, relatively soft (see?? DING! Told ya. Can't help it) kid with a decent if not great first pass is too much and sure as hell not worth the first round pick we gave up to get him. Frankly, I wouldn't have been all that heartbroken to see him walk. That said, the length of the contract should tell us something about Murray's intentions and/or true faith in Campoli. May as well make the cheque payable to "Dude keeping the seat warm for Jared Cowen".

Bobby: Chris Campoli has never found that "something" that Bryan Murray traded a first-round pick for. However, I like this signing because it's only one-year and for a guy like Camper $1.4 million is at most reasonable. However, I'm not as excited as I was with the Foligno and Regin signings.

Graeme: From questioning whether or not it was prudent to move a 1st round pick in a deal for Chris Campoli and Mike Comrie, to questioning whether or not he's even worthy of having a Senators' blogosphere roundtable question devoted to him, it's funny how far Campoli's stock has fallen. Having signed a $1.4 million deal, I can live with the fact that he's inevitably keeping the seat warm until one of Ottawa's heralded blueline prospects is ready to make the jump.

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3. The off-season has surrounded this Jason Spezza drama for the Ottawa Senators. Do you think it was just hardball for Bryan Murray, or did Spezza actually contemplate leaving Ottawa?

PeterI don't think it was hardball from Bryan Murray, and I don't think it was Jason Spezza genuinely wanting to leave town. I think it was an emotional reaction to the continuing unfair treatment from Senators fans, and it was blown into a huge controversy thanks to some irresponsible and sensationalistic yellow journalism from the Ottawa Sun. I don't think it was ever the big issue that it was presented as.

SLC: Oh, for Christ's sake, can we please stop talking about this?? Please? Two worthless gasbag Cox-wannabe typists had so much fun with the Heatley soap opera last summer that they needed something to recapture the contact high of actually being taken seriously during the off season and turned a molehill into the world's biggest ass pimple. I have no doubt Giggles complained to Murray about the booing. I have no doubt Murray listened with a sympathetic ear. And I have no doubt that Murray knew trading a League wide top-ten centre for the equivalent of a bag of pucks and another Cheechoo would cost him his job. Jason isn't, and never was, going anywhere.

Bobby: Personally, if Jason Spezza really wanted to leave Ottawa, he would have asked for a trade. He didn't, though, and that's why I believe Jason is fully committed to winning in Ottawa. The Bryan really just wanted to scour the market for some good offers, but we all know how the Dany Heatley trade came out. You never get fair value for a top-flight forward such as Spezza.

Graeme: The whole Jason Spezza angle has been blown out of proportion. Regrettably, too much of Bryan Murray's private conversation with Spezza became public knowledge. Whether or not you buy into Don Brennan's belief that Bryan Murray's candour was contrived to punish Spezza, I'm inclined to believe that Murray took up Spezza's offer and examined the trade market to see if it'd be beneficial to the organization and it wasn't. It's too bad we can't send this to minors where we can bury non-story like it is Wade Redden's cap hit.

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4. Down on the farm team, there should be a huge battle for the No.1 goaltender position between Mike Brodeur and Robin Lehner? Who's your early favourite to win the job?

PeterI think Mike Brodeur and Robin Lehner will probably split duty in the AHL. Lehner is a blue-chip prospect, and the Senators' brass won't allow him to spend most of the season sitting on the bench. On the other hand, Brodeur is only one year removed from an AHL All-Star season; he won't take kindly to being benched too often, either. If (when?) either Pascal Leclaire or Brian Elliott sustain an injury, I think it's more likely Brodeur will ride the pine in Ottawa, while Lehner playing top dog in Bingo. If not, they'll probably be 1A and 1B on the farm.

SLC: Unlike Pete (who, I should add, is a much better person than I [Ed. note: Probably not. -PR), I have no qualms about bruising the tender sensibilities of career minor league journeymen. For better or for worse, Gigantor is the (latest) designated franchise saviour for the next ten years, and as such needs as much time and as many games between the pipes in Bingo as he can handle. He's done all he can in junior and letting him ride the pine in the A in order to spare Mike Brodeur's feelings wouldn't be doing the big club any favours down the road. Of course, having said that, Lehner will be given the job, Mike will demand a trade and five years from now he pulls a Timmy Thomas and fries our ass 4-0 in the Final with three shutouts for...say...Edmonton.

Bobby:  I would love to see Robin Lehner steal to job under Mike Brodeur's nose, and even though I can't make a prediction before Binghamton gets a new coach, I believe the victor will be Brodeur, but by slim margins. Simply, he has more experience in net and offers more to the team than Lehner will, for now.

Graeme: Interesting battle here. The Golden Swedish Saviour who is destined to end almost two decades of Ottawa goaltending mediocrity or that guy who gets way too much credit for kick-starting Ottawa's 11-game winning streak last season. Ultimately, I expect the two to split the duties evenly as the new Binghamton coach tries to balance winning now with putting Lehner in the best position to succeed at the NHL-level.

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5. Give me your predictions for the rest of the off-season. Will Ottawa sign anyone or trade anyone, or will they stay pat?

PeterI think Ottawa will stick with their current lineup through the off-season, at least until training camp starts. If Jared Cowen or Patrick Wiercioch (or maybe even Eric Gryba) makes waves in camp, I imagine the Senators will probably try to trade one of their defenders (my money's on Brian Lee, although he could still have a good training camp) or perhaps even waive someone, similar to what happened with Christoph Schubert at the beginning of last season.

SLC: With everybody under contract, I'd have to say what you see is what you get, barring any truly mind blowing revelations coming out of camp (and even then, there are too many one way contracts on the roster to make even that a possibility...go ahead, tell me why Jesse Winchester shouldn't be replaced by Zack Smith). I'll go with Pete here and put Lee in slot 1 and 1a on the trading block.

But at the end of the day, when you think about it most of the arguments around next year's team revolve around fourth line wingers and sixth D-men. And that's a pretty awesome problem to be having, isn't it? Damn. Drop the puck already.

Bobby: I'm in the belief that Ottawa still needs to sign one more Top-Nine Forward, but with the recent re-signings, they only have less than $2 million left in cap room, which isn't good enough. So, they won't get anyone on the free-agent market, but I could see them clearing some space on D and move a guy like Brian Lee or even Filip Kuba.

Graeme: My prediction for the rest of the offseason? No more moves, unless they're of the 2-way contract variety. It looks as though management wants to retain as many assets as they can until camp starts to promote the whole competition from within philosophy. Unlike in years passed, the depth in Ottawa means that there aren't many (if any) roster spots up for grabs. I'm hoping this leads to an incredibly competitive camp that sees some of Ottawa's heralded prospects seize the opportunity and push the veterans. And even if some of the blue-chippers can't crack the opening day lineup, the competition to be the first emergency call up should be intriguing sub-plot to the season.

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I say we free up tons of cap space for next season.

We drop Kuba and Campoli, then get Kovalev off the books. And then we sign Stamkos after the insane contract year he’s about to have.

by oldmonk on Aug 4, 2010 8:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Random thoughts

Nice chat. Looking forward to the next one. Can’t disagree with too many points. Would like to see more toughness on D.

by DW19 on Aug 4, 2010 9:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Nice roundtable. My reactions

1) Gonchar: There have been two reactions that are almost universal, and I find both sort of puzzling. The first is that he’s signed for a year too long, as if a small market like Ottawa can really play hardball with a highly sought after UFA. The second is that our PP will benefit. It probably will, but not by much. The Pens’ PP was garbage last year. (As was ours, though Kovalev was supposed to help.) Where Gonchar helped the Pens was in driving their transition game; they really struggled without him. So I’m not expecting our PP to go from 27th to 10th with the addition of Gonchar, but hopefully we’ll see overall goal output go up.

2) Campoli: $1.4 is absolutely worth it for a stop-gap. Obviously he isn’t in the team’s long-term plans given all the depth on the back end, but for the next season or two they can lean on him to play 15-20 minutes a night (if necessary), and without paying the $3M-$4M that most top 4 dmen command.

3) Spezza and The Sun: one of those clowns won an award for the Heatley coverage. It’s no wonder they’re trying to fabricate another go-round.

4) I just hope Lehner doesn’t get rushed…it takes time for goalies to develop, and he doesn’t even has a season in the A yet. Brodeur has shown he can step in and play a game or two if required, and he’s earned it.

5) Trades and signings: I’d love to see Ottawa get another top 6-9 player, especially with so many players looking for work and the possibilities for a steal. I would absolutely take a flyer on a Kariya, Modin, Stepniak, Torres, Svatos, or Sykora if they’d be willing to sign a one year deal for one mil max. As for trades, with there being so much talent to be had for cheap I don’t know why any team would give up assets for something in the Sens’ cupboard. I think Lee is the most likely to be moved, but hey – we’re living in a world where Simon Gagne gets you Matt Walker and a 4th. I wouldn’t expect much back.

The Cory Clouston Fashion Review – theccfr.wordpress.com

by Conrad Amenta on Aug 4, 2010 10:17 AM EDT reply actions  

I like this

I like the Gonchar signing as it gives the Senators options. No more will the first power play unit be the ultimate threat while the second unit works to preserve a short handed goal from happening. This will give both units an equal chance to score. Karlson will learn from one of the best. Of course all this goes out the window if like last year we get NO power plays.

Seeing as how our best prospect is coming off mono (Cowen) and will not be game ready for the beginning of the season this is a good deal. Campoli played injured last year and could actually be much better this year and excellent trade bait as the deadline for some offense if we need it.

Thrilled Jason is staying. With the speed of our D he will now be able to fly and make great passes for some highlight reel goals.

Brodeur will start the season with Lehner taking some of the easier games at first. Look for this situation to change towards the end of the season as he adapts to the speed of the game and the higher skill level of the AHL. This is a development league as well as a legitimate one. Brodeur was not that great last year in Bingo and Lehner will surpass him by mid-season.

This is our team for next season. There is enough speed and talent to win and make the playoffs. I’m sure when they looked at the overall big picture of both our conference and our division they saw that Ottawa can win and wait another season for our rookies to develop and really contribute. If Leclair becomes consistent and I mean if he stops letting the soft ones in, then this team has the potential to go far into the playoffs. At the very least they will be fun to watch which is all I ask. Having seen Chicago play from the second round on, it was possibly the most entertained I was in years.

by Hockey Playoff Run SensFan on Aug 4, 2010 10:56 AM EDT reply actions  

I am happy with this team for now

It would be nice to add another top 9 forward, but how much of a difference would that really make? Top two lines being Alfie, Fisher, Michalek, Regin, Kovalev and Spezza. Third line likely being Ruutu, Neil and Kelly. So another forward will likely just be a 4th liner.

I’d rather we don’t commit to any more contracts now, ride this season out, we should hopefully win a round in the playoffs (or maybe more, it is the East after all).

We have Kovalev, Ruutu, Phillips and Leclaire and the buyouts for Alfie, Cheechoo and Emery all coming off the books next year. That’s about 16 million to replace 4 players.

Honestly, I know everyone loves Phillips and all, but I wouldn’t resign him for 3.5 million. I’d rather have kept Volchenkov than Phillips. Looking at next year’s free agent list, we have:
- Chara
- Semin
- Thornton
- Kaberle
- Vokoun
- Markov

I would personally absolutely love to see us sign Semin. The guy is ridiculously talented and he always rips us apart. I don’t know how much he will command but if he is available, we are going to need a top-flight winger once Alfie retires.

by Adnan on Aug 4, 2010 11:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Unfortunately Emery will still be on the books another year after this.

by modsuperstar on Aug 4, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Damn you are right

Cheechoo, Alfie and Emery’s buyouts don’t end until after 2011/2012…okay so about 13.5 million on 4 players then.

by Adnan on Aug 4, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Cheech will still be on the books for 2011/12.

by modsuperstar on Aug 4, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good discussion

I look at the lineup for next year and can’t help but conclude that the team is in better shape than they were at the start of last year. Some guys had career years and could slip back, and King K could have a sophomore slump, but the team should finish a few points ahead of last season.

by HockeyBroads.com on Aug 4, 2010 4:42 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m not confident, but only because we have a lineup full of injury-prone players. We’re guaranteed to be missing Fisher, Michalek, Alfie, Spezza, Kovalev, Gonchar, Kuba and Leclaire for up to 20 games each. It’s hard to get momentum going when the lineup is changing that much. Hence Ottawa’s streakiness last year, all the win streaks followed by losing streaks. Which worries me, because it was basically that 11 game win streak that entrenched them in the playoffs…if the team loses all of the above noted guys at the same time and has an 11 game losing streak it could be disastrous for the season.

Summary: it’s the East, and a crapshoot. I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished anywhere between 4th and 12th.

by Conrad Amenta on Aug 5, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

As you can see by my signature, I am a Devils fan, but Ottawa is the Canadian team I cheer for.
Signing Gonchar, albeit for a large chunk of change, will help more than just the Senators transition game. It will help the demeanor of one Alexei Kovalev. He plays his best when he consistently plays with someone who can get him the puck (Straka in Pittsburgh, Markov in Montreal). As you guys have seen, when Kovalev is happy, he lets his skills shine. Otherwise, he pouts and makes you angry that he has that insane ability, but doesnt use it.
Campoli’s contract is higher than I thought it would be, after seeing him play in Long Island for several years. And I think it would not have come to be, had Kuba shown he would be healthy. He seems a bit redundant in this Lineup, but like many of you have noted, the one-year deal is a stop-gap (much like our trade for Jason Arnott) until the prospect takes over the position. In the Devils case, its Jacob Josefson. Here clearly, its Mr Cowen.
Trading Spezza would have decimated the Senators and been more fodder for Laffs fans and comments about no player wanting to stay in Ottawa. Seems the story was sensationalized as Im sure players have these type of conversations with GM’s regularly.
Give Lehner ALL the time he needs. The Sens have $4.65M invested in the Net this season, but Zero for next season. Let him show if he is ready this season in the A, give him the majority of starts.
There are no holes in the Sens lineup, and Cap space is non-existent. However, losing Android and Sutton leaves you with a general lack of toughness on the back end. If Hale gets to play, he can address that to a degree. Want to trade Campoli (and Winchester to play in the Minors) for Bryce Salvador ($2.9M for two years)?

"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello

by Skuba7 on Aug 5, 2010 9:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Good points all around

I would add about Kovalev that Gonchar provides more than just intangeables.

By using Gonchar as the LD on the PP, it will inevitably open up space for Kovalev on the RW half-boards. Defences will have to spread themselves alot wider with Gonchar’s dangerous left-handed shot on the left side, more so than having Kuba on the first unit. I think alot of Kovalev’s troubles last year stemmed from him having less open ice in front of his wheel-house.

by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 5, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

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