The Hockey News Picks Us to Finish 10th...
by Adnan on Aug 18, 2010 3:06 PM EDT
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Read the full The Hockey News article here.
Now I realize we were picked to miss the playoffs again last year, but again? Really?
Yes the 11 game winning streak helped, but if you take away one of the losing streaks, we win the division. It doesn't make sense to take away our best stretch without taking away the bad stretches.
Now as to their reasoning, yes losing [Anton] Volchenkov was a big blow, but I don't see us finishing worse than 2nd in the division. Buffalo is going to need [Ryan] Miller to steal another season for them, really only Boston can realistically be ahead of us, and they still have to get rid of players to be under the cap.
On top of that, take in improved seasons for [Erik] Karlsson and [Peter] Regin, plus the addition of [Sergei] Gonchar, and hopefully it will make up for the loss of Volchenkov. And if [Jason Spezza] Giggles shows up for the whole season (as I expect him to), and goaltending is at least average, then I predict a division title and 3rd seed.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Silver Seven community, and does not necessarily reflect the beliefs or opinions of the site managers, editors, or Sports Blogs Nation, Inc.
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10th seems harsh
I agree 10th seems too low. Of course some years the standings are so tight that the difference between say 4th and 11th is not much. Still, I think the Sens should have a good shot at making the playoffs and probably will finish somewhere between 5th and 8th.
Sport Illustrated - Ottawa Sentors 21st Overall
“Ottawa Senators (44-32-6)
They made the most surprising splash of the summer when they signed Sergei Gonchar moments after the start of free agency, and he’ll serve as the ideal mentor for outstanding young defender Erik Karlson. But while that duo should help keep the puck moving, who’s going to put the puck in the net? Roman Wick and Bobby Butler will get first crack at addressing that question, but don’t expect either to be a real answer.”
Fleet and fancy defence and suspect scoring in our top six seems to be the summary of how outsiders see the Sens. If the stars align and we are significant-injury-free and everyone achieves our greatest fantasies for them, maybe our scoring isn’t a problem. And if Cowen magically overcomes mono and establishes himself as a dominant, punishing defenceman, maybe we have the defensive toughness we need. And finally, if Pascal “Fragile” LeClaire survives eating breakfast each morning without sustaining a career-threatening injury and returns to some kind of elite form, maybe we have enough back there toforget the loss of Volchy.
That’s alot of maybes. I honestly don’t see us struggling badly enough to deserve 11th in our conference, but there’s an awful lot of uncertainty too.
Fucking Muir has always had it out for Ottawa, in the same way Puck Daddy does. I read SI.com all the time and always read Muir’s garbage against my better judgment. Ottawa has shown year after year they can make the playoffs. Missing the playoffs 2 years ago was the exception and not the rule for this franchise.
by modsuperstar on Aug 20, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
C'mon
I have a hard time believing anyone “has it in” for us. I agree that Muir often overlooks stuff and that his rankings rarely reflect reality, but he’s an equal opportunity lightweight.
The upside to my note above is that while Alfie may be older, he will still deliver a solid performance, Regin’s upside is unknown, Foligno’s a year older and should be more consistent, and we have a stable of yong bucks pushing for space. The one variable that always takes these kinds of high level overviews by surprise is the degree to which the rookies and younger players come out of nowhere. For the first time in a while, we have some hope down on the farm.
But Puck Daddy does have it in for Garrioch
Deserved or not, the incessant propoagtion of Garrioch’s nickname has served to absolutely destroy the man’s reputation continent-wide.
There are so many reasons to hate on Garrioch, but Wyshynski has drummed the most trivial of them into the minds (and I use that term loosely) of his readers (again, loosely).
It’s almost as if Garrioch once pissed on Greg’s dog, the way he still hasn’t let go of the two-year old meme. There isn’t a single media member alive who gets even half the snark Wysh lavishes on Bruce and for what? Certainly not the right reasons.
For what most would consider a far, far worse sin than floating false rumours, Wyshynski not only overlooks, but embraces the guy who tried to mess with Mirtle. And have you seen Gallof’s weak-ass photoshops this month? Talk about mailing it in. I just don’t get the double-standard. Maybe because Gallof has always kissed Greg’s ass so much.
Why do everything in his power to promote a guy guilty of the worst blogging infractions, while constantly tossing Garrioch under the bus for an old example of what countless others have done, while at the same time doing his best to improve the lot of a guy who should have been shunned.
The odd thing is, whenever Greg needs to source a Sens story, he invariably links to Garrioch’s legwork, but will not cut the fat man any slack at all, with hundreds and hundreds of needless, repetitive jabs over the years. And has Garrioch ever once dissed Greg? Never.
The whole situation is so bizarre, that I find myself defending Garrioch more often than criticizing him for his deserved faults.
Other than that, and Greg’s repeated references to supposed attendance problems in the city that has sold more tickets, at higher prices, than 18 of 24 American-based teams because we bottomed out at 98.8% capacity in the wake of the Heatley uncertainty, Wysh shows a disdain for our small fanbase that he wouldn’t dare thrust upon his allies in Toronto.
I don’t know from Muir, but I could cite many examples of Puck Daddy treating the Sens far worse than he ever does for his supposed hated rivals in Manhattan. His support of the Whalers, compared to his continuous scorn for Winnipeg and Quebec are further examples of his less-than-latent anti-Canadian bias that somehow eludes most in Toronto. I guess he needs their support, which is why he treats the hated Cox almost as bad as the formerly anonymous Garrioch.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 20, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Case in point
Wysh’s pet project, Lambert, just now ran a piece he likes to call Trending Topics, though once again, his preamble has absoluetly zero things to do with Twitter. The column’s format, as conceived, was suspect from the start, but I find he rarely sticks to that format at all. When he does, he’s usually stretching things by needlessly invoking Twitter to introduce his subject.
For example, he might say something like Mirtle tweeted this week about the R&D camp when he could just as easily have linked to Mirtle’s actual writings. The whole concept of Lambert’s feature was contrived to begin with, and it seems more and more forced the longer he writes it. He should just publish the far better What We Learned twice weekly, if Wyshynski wants column inches.
But none of that is either here or there.
My point was going to be that tonight’s column, while never once invoking Twitter in the introduction, focuses on the fact that Sens fans seem outraged at this 10th-place ranking. Outraged? Really? I’d describe us more as being in mild disagreement.
So why bring up the subject, especially in his Twitter-related column? Grand conspiracy? Hardly. Strong anti-Ottawa bias? Doubt it. Workplace atmosphere that lends itself more to needless, subtle, innocuous jabs at certain fanbases, while generally steering clear of pissing off others. Could be.
I’m just saying that the Coyotes or Leafs or Caps or Pens don’t get nearly the same level of snark directed at them as others do, like Detroit and Philly, and to a much lesser extent, Ottawa.
Bias? Sure, but who cares. It exists, but it’s nothing to lose sleep over. I just find it odd that, for all the mention of Ottawa’s attendance woes, our fanbase seems to get singled out a little more than, say, Nashville’s. Certainly Phoenix’s, who have been coddled by Greg for the past two years, ever since Mirtle dared to cite his colleagues’ actual reporting of facts.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 20, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
My new hobby has suddenly become
Spot the bias on Puck Daddy.
Today’s test case:
A rather funny joke at Leclaire’s expense by Hockey or Die, that gets selected for today’s Puck Headlines.
As I said on Wysh’s Comments Section, the joke works alot better with this figurine, though I guess the font is too small to read. Thing is, I’ve seen Greg’s office via webcam and I find it hard to believe that he doesn’t have more appropriate examples among his memorabilia that he could have photographed up close.
I guess that’s not the point of Puck Headlines, but it’s interesting that he’d choose to link to a joke that could have been so much better.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 25, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Lalime's expense!
Although I do see the homour in it. I have no problem with that. But I don’t follow him closely enough to notice a serious bias in his coverage.
It is worth noting that, 2004 notwithstanding, Lalime was a solid playoff goaltender: His all-time record with the Senators was 21-16, and he has a career playoff GAA of 1.77 and SP of .926.
And even in 2004, his GAA was 1.96 and his SP was .906.
by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 25, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Lalime?
Well that makes a Hell of alot more sense than Leclaire.
I mean the joke was funny either way, but I couldn’t help wondering when Leclaire had choked for the Sens.
So the joke was a little more apropos, but on the other hand, about 6 years too late. There are simply too many better options for that gag [pun intended]. Luongo, Ovie, Nabokov … the list is endless. Why not just call out Adam Oates if they think the joke has no expiration date?
Anyway, I do follow him closely – some might even say too closely (Wysh himself thinks so) – and I can say unequivocally that any bias against the team is far from serious. I just got a kick out of finding out today that he tweeted about me at least four times last night, with another hockey blog heavyweight, Tyler Dellow even, and that the discussion carried over to today’s Live Chat.
I’m just glad it hadn’t been while Greg was in Vancouver, rather than Toronto. You know, he got over 130,000 readers/viewers for some of his Olympic Live Chats? I might’ve become, for 15 seconds anyway, more notorious than Garrioch.
This whole thread got started when someone suggested that Puck Daddy was biased against the Sens, and I, in a very, VERY roundabout way, endeavored to prove that Greg’s bias was far more focused on Garrioch than the team or the fanbase. The truth is probably that Wysh pays as little attention to the Sens as Versus does. He certainly seemed more shocked that Vancouver was limited to one game, or especially that Edmonton was left off the schedule altogether, to even make note of the fact that Ottawa was the only other team snubbed completely.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 25, 2010 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions
This is something I try to deal with
I mean, I give Garrioch and his colleagues at the Sun a hard time, and that’s because I don’t agree with the Sun‘s yellow journalism. The constant blending of news and opinion, the use of what must be unreliable sources (at best), the personal attacks on players (Corvo, Emery), the inflation of nothing stories into huge controversies without adequate verification (Neil’s “bankruptcy”, Spezza’s “trade request”)… it just goes on. And all the while, the Sun has developed a reputation of being in the team’s pockets, because of reports out there that they will look past certain very, very bad stories at the behest of the organization, so as not to bite the hand that feeds them.
Still, the Sun has been known to break some Sens news, and when they do I typically cite them (although I’ll often wait for another news source to verify it, like TSN, because I know I can trust them to ensure the report is verified before saying it’s done).
by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 21, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
And a hard time, they deserve
But not once have I seen you call them out for suggesting that a trade offer had possibly been discussed, let alone harp on that one piece of rumour-mongering for 26 straight months, roughly 6 times a week.
So let’s go back to the beginning of Greg’s meme and look at the facts:
Simple? Not at all, Greg is a smart cookie. Flawed? Well forgetting about Cammalleri and Doughty does lend itself to that conclusion.
Imagine the playoff run the Pens might have mounted this year, with wingers like Hossa and Cammalleri and a guy like Doughty on the back end.
So yeah, Garrioch’s “report” may not have been accurate. Or maybe it was. After all, the report did state that Lombardi turned the deal down. The point is, Greg dismissed the entire possibility because he saw Malkin being worth far more to the Pens than the triumvirate of world-class wingers and d-men.
Furthermore, by presenting Garrioch’s piece to the masses at Yahoo, who is Greg to accuse anyone of spreading rumours? I suspect Puck Daddy gets far more page hits than the little ol’ Ottawa Sun. Or at least he does now, after running Garrioch’s story that stirred up massive debate on his then two-month old site. Just sayin’.
What gets me is that in June 2008, Wysh was not yet fully ready to believe that the story was full-on bunk, but as we now know, the moniker Malkin-to-the-Kings denotes something so astronomically stupid and unbelievable that thousands of Yahoo readers have registered the phrase into their lexicons in place of HF Boards trade proposal.
Anyway, what bothers me is that countless others have since made similar claims, including reports that Kovalchuk would be traded to the Kings – not “was offered to the Kings and turned down”, but will be traded. Then Kovalchuk gets shipped to New Jersey and nobody gets lambasted for their supposed sources that were advising of the impending, rather than revealing what had possibly taken place in the recent past.
There are just so many reasons to give Garrioch a hard time, that I find Puck Daddy’s beef to be juvenile and maybe borderline slanderous. It is certainly political, given that Greg lays off other, more deserving targets who just happen to be among his Twitter followers.
Bottom line, Wyshysnki made his bones on ripping apart Eklund to get noticed and tendered by Yahoo. And what profitable bones those are. Perhaps to earn that salary, Greg felt that he needed to drum up page hits on his nascent blog by following the same template and villifying another person who would dare report on a trade offer. But I cannot emphasize enough that Garrioch never once said that Malkin would be heading to the Kings. He made it clear that Malkin was staying in Pittsburgh.
The differecne between Eklund and Garrioch is not only the sheer volume of false rumours, it is that Garrioch’s rumour was merely about what may have taken place in the past.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 21, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
it’s all figurative to say that the Pens would have Cammelari, Doughty, AND Hossa right now if that deal had gone down. I never did and still don’t like the Malkin to the Kings trade.
Also, Wysh I’ve never had a problem with. I don’t find he lambastes the SENS much if at all and I read him everyday. I find he is pretty fair across the board with all teams. Sometimes as fans we notice the slights against our own team more clearly than against others.
However, Ryan “Douche” Lambert does have it in for the SENS. Never once have a read a positive thing come from him towards the SENS. Mind you, Ottawa isn’t the only team he despises, but as I have discussed with friends of mine who also read Puck Daddy, they as well notice it and they are Leaf/Bruin/other team fans.
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Fair enough
As I said, I believe Greg’s bias is towards Garrioch, much more than towards the Sens. What little bias he shows towards the team and the fanbase is dwarfed by his treatment of others, like Detroit and Philly, so I won’t lose sleep over that.
And there is no real reason to believe that Pittsburgh would have held onto Hossa and Cammalleri in that reported trade-that-never-was, but if the report is to be believed, and Lombardi hadn’t reportedly turned it down, then it would be very fair to say that Pittsburgh would have taken those three players into the Finals in ’09.
Of course, they won the Cup anyway, so who’s to say that Hossa, Cammalleri and Doughty would have made their Cup run any easier.
But the point I was making was that Garrioch reported that no trade would go down, and he was right. Malkin didn’t go to the kings.
Wyshynski glosses that over when he calls Garrioch by that insulting nickname. And I do agree that Lambert is a prick to many fanbases, Ottawa included. I don’t have a problem with that because (a) he is a shock-jock, and (b) his influence pales in comparison to Greg’s. Nobody cares what Lambert says, but people hang on Wysh’s words by the thousands.
So when Greg reports on Ottawa’s attendance woes, conveniently leaving out that our worst year post-lockout was caused by the stalled season ticket sales during Heatley’s holdout last June, he never mentions that we ranked 12th in the league at 18,269, or even 15th at 98.8% capacity.
You will never see him snark all over Phoenix or Nashville or Colorado, who dragged up the rear despite all making the playoffs. He has his favourites, and they are most certainly all American teams, and he simply doesn’t ever make fun of them. Which is fine.
But the love he shows for the Whalers, compared to the utter hate he shows for Jets and Nords fans makes his anti-Canadian bias seem rather obvious to me. And that’s fine too.
He may not be anti-Ottawa, and his anti-Canadian stances are normal for an American, but that doesn’t mean I have to like even the subtlest of slants. He is so influential that he is shaping the minds of a generation of American hockey fans. Read any of his Comment sections for an article that speaks less than glowingly of a team like Ottawa or Montreal or Edmonton, and you’ll find dozens of ignorant fools spouting off their xenophobic opinions. Such is the nature of being on Yahoo, that his readership is so dumb, on average.
But his numbers are so huge that he is able to shape the opinions of thousands with the subtlest turn of phrase.
I too read Puck Daddy daily, and up until about 18 months ago, took part in the discussions. But once Greg discovered that he needed to increase his traffic to warrant his salary, his standards went one way, while his former Deadspin following just went away.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 22, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Anyway, I spilled far too much ink on the subject
I think Wyshynski is a great writer, and no matter what I think of his politics (vis-a-vis jingoism, favourtism of certain bloggers, etc), I will continue to read his shit daily. He is that good.
Whatever decline I may have noticed last year or this year, it doesn’t compare with someone like Letterman, whose move to 11:30 left me wondering where the funny had gone. Greg sold out his soul for an almost-as-good soul, so good on him for keeping his quality as high as he managed to do, after going corporate.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions
It's too bad he didn't leave a comment
But Greg stopped by last night and ended up tweeting about my comments a few times, including a rather flattering comparison to Homer (no, not that Homer).
Anyway, he apparently spoke to Tyler Dellow about it, who seems to somewhat agree that Garrioch has been unfairly singled out.
Then about a half hour ago, I got an email telling me that Greg even brought it up during his Live Chat, so I hurried over to say wassup.
My only regret is that Greg didn’t address me directly, right here, as I have always responded to him when asked, on his Comments board, via email, and now via Live Chat.
I know he’s busy, especially this week in Toronto, but he could have squeezed off a short note here in between Tweets. Oh well, maybe next time.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 25, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe he’s among the many lurkers who don’t register or comment frequently on the site.
You guys don’t know what you’re missing! It’s ever so much fun!
by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 25, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
You just got called out, lurkers!
Are you gonna take that? Are you?!
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I don't have much to add
Other than that I pretty much agree with everything you’ve written about Wyshynski. The anti-Canadian thing really gets me, too.
And also, the pro-fighting bias is totally over the top in his stuff and it kills me. Fine – he’s a blogger (which is basically the Web equivalent of a columnist – so he can have an opinion, but everything he writes on the subject is totally one-sided. A little more balance from him (on a variety of subjects) would be nice.
I agree
He may be “just” a blogger, but his readership fars outweighs any hockey writer in Ottawa. Add to that, the added influence of having such young, impressionable readers, compared to newspaper columnists, and he could probably do with more objectivity.
That said, his anti-Canadian bias was jump-started by a butting of heads with James Mirtle over Mirtle’s newspaper’s reporting on the Phoenix Coyotes impending disaster, months and months before it ended up in bankruptcy court. Since that point, Greg has made a point of calling out Canadian-based hockey writers for being too patriotic (which is like me complaining that Texas-based football writers don’t cover the CFL properly, except that the Globe & Mail actually did cover the Coyotes far better than any American-based journalists). Dave Shoalts was first on the scene, more in depth than anyone, and bang-on in his conclusions, which vindicated Mirtle and embittered Wyshynski.
After that jump-start, the lead up to the Olympics in Canada gave Wysh great consternation and much opportunity to slam the country for such sins as the malfunctioning torch, the death of the luger, and the first week of failing to own the podium as often as promised (conveniently leaving out that our strengths mostly lie in the events that concluded during the 2nd week of competition.
So reading his, and his colleagues’ articles on the Yahoo Olympic blog, one couldn’t help but notice how eager the writers seemed to be to give the ignorant readers the fodder they craved. They knew, or at least ought reasonably to have known, that their efforts to drive up site traffic was producing hundreds of hate-filled comments about the country that was hosting them. And even if they didn’t – which makes them complete morons – the writers saw early on what kind of anti-Canadian responses they were generating with the tone and content of their coverage.
So yeah, Wysh may visit Canada several times a year, and have far more fun, professionally and socially, than is available to him in Virginia, but he has spent much of the past 24 months furthering many anti-Canadian sentiments among his readers.
In the end though, he has little, if anything against the Sens. His writing is a cut above most others, and his massive volume places him squarely on top of the hockey blogging community. So I can put up with his many faults and continue to read his work and enjoy most of it.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 25, 2010 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
As an aside, I would rather be ranked lower than higher, you at least have a place to rise to then.
For the record, I picked SENS 8th but I could realistically see them finishing as high as last year (they won’t win the division, sorry) but also as low as 12 – it could happen, don’t underestimate other teams.
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To be fair, Lambert has it out for 28 teams, and only sometimes leaves the other two (CGY and BOS) alone because he roots for them. He’s an equal-opportunity douchenozzle.
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After years of picking Ottawa to win the cup (2004-2007) , pundits now don’t give the Sens any respect. Very few people know much about the Sens lineup this year other than our three biggest stars (Spez, Alf, Kovy) “didn’t preform well last year”. I would say Ottawa has a pretty gritty team this year combined with scorign talent everywhere and a solid mix of young and old at every position providing both leadership/guidance and energy/tenacity. They will “surprise” everyone once again this year.
by ojc on Aug 18, 2010 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
We will finish 3rd or 5th
The fact that Buffalo was picked as a playoff team just shows the ignorance of THN
The Ottawa Senators are the best team in the confernce Other than Washington, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philly and maybe New Jersey.
Teams that will make it: PIT, PHI, WSH, BOS, NJ and OTT
Teams that won’t make it: FLA, NYI, ATL, CAR, NYR, and TOR
Teams that may go either way: MTL, BUF and TB
How we got just 5th place last year:
1: A tough season for Spezza where he didn’t break 60 points.
2: A horrible regular season from Pascal Leclaire.
3: Alfie only scored 20 goals last year.
4: Milian Michalek got but 30 points.
5: Alex Kovalev really struggled at times.
6: Erik Karlsson Struggled during the first half.
7: So did Brian Elliott.
8: Cheechoo underachived.
9: Nick Foligno only got 9 goals.
10: We missed volchenkov for 20 games last year.
11: We were injury riddled for a significant time last year.
12: Two 5 game losing skids didn’t hurt us.
13: Volchenkov had the fewest blocks per game average of his carrear.
Last year THN said that those players would have to be at thier best for Ottawa to maybe get 8th place in the conference……just shows you how smart those so called experts are.
Those experts knew nothing about Ruutu, Kelly and Neil and were asleep when we finished 08-09 with a 19-11-4 record.
I guess they were asslep last year and still don’t know that Cory Clouston Coaches this team.
This year the team will make the following improvments:
1: Spezza, 90 + points barring injury (2nd half form all year.)
2: Alfie, 80 + points, 90 if he plays all 82 games
3: Kovalev, 25 + goals
4: Regin, 20 + goals
5: Michalek, 30 goals
6: Fisher will remain a 20 goal man
7: Foligno will get 15-20 goals
8: Karlsson will get 40 points
9: if healthy Gonchar will get 50 points
10: Kuba will get 30 points.
11: Campoli will put up better numbers at even strength.
12: Brian Elliott will improve on last season (2nd half from.)
13: Ruutu, Kelly and Neil won’t regress at all
14: Leclaire will play like he did in the playoffs last year
15: Clouston has learned more as a coach
16: The team is very structured defensivly.
17: Last year the guys played for eachother, don’t expect that to change.
We will be a 105 point team and compete for the conference crown, All 17 of those points were realistic predictions, We learned how to beat Boston and new Jersey last year and won’t lose 7 of those 10 games again.
The only thing I know is we Contend for the Stanley Cup this year.
That is certainly a big difference of opinion
And I’m not just talking about the Hockey News predictions, versus yours that are listed here.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 18, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
What if something goes wrong
Cannot play with 'em, cannot win with 'em, cannot coach with 'em. Cant do it.
Then move the team to Kansas City. Done and done ;-)
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 18, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah... these are a little optimistic
Just as it’s ridiculous for The Hockey News to assume that everything that went wrong last season will go wrong again this season, it’s also pretty ridiculous of you to assume that everything that went wrong last season will go right this season. (No offence intended.)
Injuries will happen. Players will underperform. To me, the real question is this: Can Ottawa’s goaltenders offer consistently reliable goaltending through the season? If the answer is yes, they should finish top or middle of the pack. If the answer is no, Ottawa will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs.
by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 19, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes. I guess the predictions make 7 20 goal scorers, which is as many as Washington had last season.
If you want content, go to the Copper and Blue. If you want numbers, go to Behind the Net. If you want craziness, go to Pension Plan Puppets. If you want humor, go to Battle of California.If you want discussion, go to Broad Street Hockey. If you want bravery, go to Five For Howling.
If you want all of the above, go to Japers' Rink.
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by red army line on Aug 22, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Foligno is certainly a stretch
But would six 20-goal scorers surprise you?
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, that’s as many as Vancouver. You need serious PP time for that. If Ottawa starts drawing penalties like Carolina, then no.
If you want content, go to the Copper and Blue. If you want numbers, go to Behind the Net. If you want craziness, go to Pension Plan Puppets. If you want humor, go to Battle of California.If you want discussion, go to Broad Street Hockey. If you want bravery, go to Five For Howling.
If you want all of the above, go to Japers' Rink.
My blog and Twitter.
by red army line on Aug 23, 2010 4:45 AM EDT up reply actions
some of your projections are exclusionary
for instance:
to pot 20+ goals, regin would probably have to be playing on the top line all year
likewise, for michalek to score 30 would probably require that he be the one on spezza’s left wing for 82 games
by Buz Killington on Aug 19, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
The fact that Buffalo was picked as a playoff team just shows the ignorance of THN
Could you explain this? I understand Miller had a great season and all, but, like Nashville, the coach (Ruff here, Trotz there) always puts together a group that competes for the playoffs. Two years ago they make it if they don’t lose Miller. He’s a very good goalie.
If you want content, go to the Copper and Blue. If you want numbers, go to Behind the Net. If you want craziness, go to Pension Plan Puppets. If you want humor, go to Battle of California.If you want discussion, go to Broad Street Hockey. If you want bravery, go to Five For Howling.
If you want all of the above, go to Japers' Rink.
My blog (now featuring two Penguins fans as co-authors) and Twitter.
by red army line on Aug 22, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s a very good goalie
I agree. Kinda like how Coca Cola is a very good cola.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions
It is a stupid prediction.
To base our season on the loss of a defensive defenseman is stupid. Chicago won the cup by being faster and having a very mobile defense. Volchenkov could not pass the puck to save his life. Let’s not forget that Campoli will be healthy and the east is a par conference. Pittsburgh lost some players and Washington is still weak on “D”. Their two Russians did nothing in the playoffs and despite officiating that was horrible, Montreal won. All Leclair has to do is not let in any weak goals and I’m sure his new coach will address this all year, if not Eliot is more than capable. We should get more scoring and with any luck more power plays based on the fact that this will still be a very fast team.
by Hockey Playoff Run SensFan on Aug 19, 2010 1:16 AM EDT reply actions
Volchenkov is also one of the best defensive defensemen in the conference. He and Philips from an outsider’s perspective were really, really good. Gonchar at this point looks washed up defensively, a little like Marc Andre Bergeron.
Oh, and Washington has three Russians—two forwards who spent the entire series in the offensive zone and a goalie who played well, but not great.
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by red army line on Aug 22, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I think his point was
That despite how much time Semin spent in the offensive zone, he may as well have been playing the bongos, for all the offence he produced.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not so annoyed with him because he didn’t cost the team defensively as much as even Ovechkin did,
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by red army line on Aug 23, 2010 4:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Underachievers!! Wake Up... They Predicted 10th!!!
I like that the Sens are predicted as finishing 10th, because I hope that wakes up the under-achievers enough to make Mr. Gosensgo’s predictions come thru. Are you listening Kovy? Spezza? Leclaire?
I kind of like that, too
Every year we’re finished to do well, the Senators disappoint. With low expectation heading into the season, it should be less pressurized for the Sens, and will allow the players to be a little more relaxed.
Then again, every Canadian team has high expectations from their fan base. (Except maybe Edmonton.)
by Peter Raaymakers on Aug 19, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Too bad Spezza probably reads fewer Ken Campbell article’s than Garrioch pieces :-(
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 20, 2010 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Answer me this, y'all.
I have a $100 bet all lined up that the Sens will finish in a better position than the Flyers.
Deal or no deal?
I was reading this the other day and thought something similar to the author. If you look at our division, TO has (arguably) improved, MTL has (arguably) regressed – and will be without Markov until November, BUF has regressed and would need Miller to have another Vezina season, and BOS has kind of stayed stagnant.
I realistically see the Senators fighting for the division title again, even without our losses. Put it this way, I have a better feeling this year than I did going into last season.
by kbs on Aug 19, 2010 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Don’t forget though that Boston has added Horton and that their best-to-worst offense probably is due for a bounce back on top of that.
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by red army line on Aug 22, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
The flipside to that coin being
Wouldn’t Rask be expected to also regress to the mean, and not put up Vezina quality numbers as a sophomore?
I totally expect Boston to pot more goals. I also expect them to allow more goals as well. For their sakes, I hope they can break this 4-game losing skid they’ve been on for the past 3 months ;-)
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions
His ESSv% looks like this, counting years backwards:
.937
1.000
.922
Average in the .930s, counting GPs.
He has three of the four years you need to be 95% confident that he’s the real deal or something like that. He’ll regress—even Vokoun likely will too, irrespective of age—but I don’t think it’ll be by too much.
It only helps in my mind that Rask was a highly touted prospect as well.
And Thomas:
.913
.940
.933
.920
Average in the .920s. That’s pretty good. Looking at his career he’s all over the place, so the logical way for him to go following that pattern is up.
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by red army line on Aug 23, 2010 4:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Setting aside Rask's one game season
Not to mention his first 3-game campaign, I’d be less likely than you to give him credit for being a three-year veteran.
There’s a reason why Rask was considered for this year’s Calder. And there’s also a reason why he was not considered to be among the three nominees. The kid’s coming off a rookie season that was considered far too small of a sample size to get a Jimmy Howard level of certainty, so I contend that Rask could easily Steve Mason himself out of a job before Halloween.
As for Thomas, you might want his numbers to keep trending upwards, but historically, how many goalies have put up career years as 36-year olds, compared to the number of keepers who’ve seen their numbers decline from age 34 to 35 to 36. I;d argue that the logical way for him to go, following that pattern, is down. After all, Seidenberg will be clearing the crease alot less effectively than Derek Morris.
Don’t get me wrong, Rask has the potential to backstop the Bruins to an easy Division title. I just reserve far more caution when describing him as a sure-thing.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions
THN
I think THN must feel burned by the Sens, because they over estimated us a couple of years running, and are now going with the under estimate option. Pretty much everybody underestimated us last year though, and it isn’t unreasonable to have questions about ottawa’s ability this year. If anything ottawa has proven just how unpredictable and unreliable they are.
It is foolish to say that they are a lock for the playoffs this year, just because they made it last year and assuming improvements in all areas. What if Alfie starts to really slide? He’s not getting any younger, and this team has so far shown a complete lack of ability if he can’t lift the team. What if Elliott has a poor sophomore season (as is quite typical of goaltenders)? What if Gonchar misses a couple of months to injury? These are all very plausible, even likely situations, and any one could cause the team massive problems.
All these articles look at is rosters. There’s no nuance at all. Forget that letting Volchie and Sutton go and getting Gonchar equals a shift to a transition game – all they look at is -2, +1 = -1. They look at where the team was last year, look at who they added, and then move them one or two spots up or down. And they’re almost never right.
Best example from last year was Phoenix, who absolutely everybody picked to finish dead last. They weren’t interested in the coaching change. One surprising appearance in the playoffs and first round loss and now THN has them reappearing in 7th place. They’ve displayed this same short-term logic in recent years while writing about Atlanta, Columbus, Dallas, St. Louis and especially Boston, who are all over the place. Not all teams are heading in one of two directions.
theccfr.wordpress.com
That’s the thing with Ottawa, if you didn’t actually follow the team you’d have no idea why Spezza had a down season. Because he had a back injury he tried to play through the early part of the season. Only when he injured his knee and came back actually healthy did he start to produce at a high level.
The irony is if Kovy, Kuba and Michalek are healthy, the Sens beat the Pens and move on another round or 2 and all these pre-season predictions would have the Sens making the playoffs or winning the division.
by modsuperstar on Aug 19, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Phoenix has much more margin for error. Even in the West, they topped 100 points. In the East, it’s Washington and Pittsburgh followed by a big clump.
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by red army line on Aug 22, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I would argue
That their margin of error is actually smaller, for the very reason you cite.
They could put up 93 points and still find themselves golfing in April, whereas an Eastern team like Ottawa could conceivably sneak into 8th with only 88 points, hence a bigger margin.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 3:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I meant OTT was 7 pts clear of 9th, Phoenix was 17 (only East team 17 pts clear was Washington, NJD was 16).
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by red army line on Aug 23, 2010 4:55 AM EDT up reply actions
And you have a point about that
I just have trouble picturing Phoenix, with the loss of Lombardi and an average age eclipsed only by the Red Wings, as being more certain of reaching the necessary 94 points for 8th-place.
Ottawa needs only about 90 points to punch their ticket, and despite the presence of Gonchar, Kovalev, and Alfredsson, are actually far younger than the typical resident of Glendale. The Coyotes cannot be as certain about making that same claim.
So while Ottawa only finished 4.5 games ahead of the also-rans, they did so while enduring a couple of long losing streaks. If Phoenix’s season hits one such snag, they can easily find themselves looking in from the outside.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not that big on the Sens this year and I wasn’t last season either. I think they’ll be between seventh and ninth in the East, probably.
Goaltending is what I’d be worried about. I think it’s reasonable to expect a rebound from some of their offensive players like Kovalev, Michalek, Spezza etc. and Karlsson will be a big help, but I have zero faith in Leclaire and question whether Elliott’s going to be anything more than league average this year.
The thing is, though, there are a lot of really poor teams in the East and few made strides that are going to put them ahead of Ottawa. Realistically, I can see the Rangers getting back in the postseason, but everyone else that missed last season has serious question marks.
Predictions are such a crapshoot these days anyway. A couple major injuries and Ottawa, like almost every other team, is in trouble.
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by James Mirtle on Aug 20, 2010 8:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Sober assessment
The difference between the weakest division winner (*ahem*Adams*ahem*) and a 9th-place also-ran in the East cannot possibly be predicted to fall outside of a single standard deviation (whatever that means – I heard that jargon once and thought it made that person look smart, so thought I’d try it out).
Personally, I don’t see Boston as having made giant strides, especially until they figure out what to do with Ryder’s contract. I guess Rask could put up Vezina-like numbers a second time, but he may also Steve Mason himself out of a far less secure job. I also see the Habs and Sabres as having taken steps backwards. The Leafs could end up being most improved in the division, but I’d place them 9th, if only for their unfortunate tendency to get edged out by the likes of Dubieliewicz on the final day.
For these reasons, I cautiously predict the Sens to be the best of a bad lot and pull in the 3rd seed with the worst winning percentage since Carolina used to get it with the 5th-best record. But as you say, third …. ninth …. I don’t see anyone accurately predicting the difference in December, let alone in August.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 20, 2010 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I like waiting until early October and then those predictions can be somewhat accurate. About 2.5 spots off, on average, per team.
That’s about the best you can do.
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by James Mirtle on Aug 21, 2010 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Everyone underestimated the Northeast last year, basically figuring we’d have a division winner make the playoffs, who everyone figured would be Boston. Most predictions had 4 Atlantic teams. Instead half the Eastern playoff teams were from the Northeast. The NE on a bad year will still be better then the teams in the Southeast.
by modsuperstar on Aug 22, 2010 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions
You may be right
Everyone is so ready to jump on Yzerman’s jock, but his team isn’t all that great. That leaves about 4 Atlantic Division teams to compete against 4 Northeast Division teams and the two lonely Southeast Division teams, all surely taking the top 10 (unless Toronto can knock one of them down to 11th.
I guess my point was simply that because the Southeast is so weak, the Caps are assured of a top-2 seed due to all their easy games, and that there are so many threats in the Atlantic that whoever comes out of the tight Northeast will have trouble overtaking the Pens, or whoever.
“the weakest division winner (*ahem*Adams*ahem*)”
This is far from saying that the Adams as a whole is weak. Far from it. There’s a longshot chance of all 5 teams making the playoffs, but none of them will do better than the 3rd-seed.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 22, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think the Southeast is as weak as in previous years. Tampa will make the playoffs this year, I believe.
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It wouldn't surprise me
Though I’m not ready to call them favoured to break through.
Though just like Washington, their schedule against Atl, Car and Fla provides them with plenty of easy games to rack up the points. They are defintely in the Top-11, ahead of their Division rivals and the Isles.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 22, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that’s a little misguided. The Capitals and Lightning will play 24 games against SE opponents. The ATL and NE Eastern teams will play 20 (though that includes 4 against Washington). It’s not that big of a difference.
Also, Ellis is a HUGE upgrade in goal. He was Halak-west in Nashville-at best could only be a 1A starter, but was great during that time, even better than Halak in fact.
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by red army line on Aug 22, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point
I guess I just see those extra 2 games versus Atlanta, 2 versus Carolina, and 2 versus Florida that both Tampa and Washington get to play, as possibly being the difference between 9th and 8th place (or 2nd and 1st, in Washington’s case).
It may not seem like much, but would you rather be fighting for those 12 easy points, or playing in the Northeast, where the easiest opponents might be Toronto, Buffalo and Montreal?
I’d say a team like Tampa gets a crapload of those extra 12 points and Washington gets almost all of them, whereas the Sens have to fight tooth and nail for half of those extra 12 points. Same goes for Boston.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Funnily enough, not all that true. I mean, aside from New Jersey, no ATL team won half their games against the SE. Only Boston, Buffalo, and Montreal did well from the NE. Washington beat up on the SE this past year, but the years before that they’d been best against the ATL, actually.
I guess I get to see it more with Washington in the SE, but the weaker SE teams always play up if their opponent plays down, which WSH does all the time. I guess the other division’s teams do the same thing.
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by red army line on Aug 23, 2010 4:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting
Though I think we’re arguing two different points here. I thought the discussion was about who had the easier divisional games, and how that affected the number of points a team like Washington could earn in those 24 games, compared to how difficult it was for a team like Boston to rack up the points in their 24 divisional games.
The part about how how many games the Bruins, Sabres and Habs won versus the southeast was not really what I was getting at.
Since Washington’s points percentage was higher within their own division than it was when playing opponents from other divisions, I see an adavantage to getting to play more games against teams that they dominate.
My point was simply that Washington was amazing all-around, but especially amazing against the teams that they played the most often. Tampa enjoyed the same fate, doing far better against the teams that they played the most often. Even Carolina fared better against teams in their division than against teams in any other division.
For those teams to get to schedule extra games each year versus opponents that they excel against, provides for a slight advantage when compared to those teams whose extra games are against teams that they struggle against.
No other division has three such teams (with their best points percentage coming against the teams they face most often).
Ottawa managed the feat, but did Toronto? The Leafs did their “dominating” within their own division, but the thing about the OTL point is that while Toronto managed a slightly better points percentage with their 10-7-7 record, they also allowed their divisional opponents to score 14 wins against them while only losing 10 times (some of which were surely in OT).
Philadelphia, like Ottawa, were more dominant against the teams they played the most.
So depending on your view of Toronto’s “dominance”, it could be said that 3 Southeast teams had their schedule weighted in their favour by being allowed to face their easy foes the most, while only one Atlantic and one Northeast team were allowed to play more games against the teams that they dominated.
But it is interesting that many northern teams struggled against the Southeast. Maybe they actually wouldn’t like to be in Washington, Tampa and Carolina’s shoes, since they can’t seem to dominate that division as much as Washington, Tampa and Carolina do.
My point remains, though, that if the schedule were spread evenly across all cities, then Washington, Tampa and Carolina would lose a few points that they get by staying in their division so often. As would Ottawa and Philly. But the fact that three of five Southeast teams enjoy such a boost due to scheduling suggests to me that the other divisions are tighter.
“just like Washington, [the Lightning’s] schedule against Atl, Car and Fla provides them with plenty of easy games to rack up the points”
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 23, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re right, my mistake. I completely agree. Familiarity I think hurts the other teams a lot from “beating up” on the SE compared to SE teams themselves.
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by red army line on Aug 23, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm only "right" by a slight margin
And only using the small sample size of one year. And discounting Toronto’s divisional record of OTLs for everybody. And cherry-picking some numbers.
I still like the point I was making, but I could probably have found data to support your position if I looked for that.
The take-away here is that even though Washington enjoyed an advantage by playing extra games against the Southeast, they were so damn good against everyone that two extra points here or three extra points there would hardly have prevented them from clinching the President’s trophy while the rest of us were celebrating St. Patrick’s Day.
I like what you brought to my attention, about how most teams have no reason to want to schedule extra games against the Southeast. Could it be that a trip to Florida in December results in more time on the beach and less time at practice?
And my thesis may have demonstrated an advantage for Tampa and Carolina, but what did that get them?
Anyway, I’ve long proposed a schedule that both Ed Snider and Daryl Katz can agree serves both men’s goals. Snider wants more actual Divisional games against teams that give him better gate receipts, while Katz wants more visits from Ovie and Sid to generate better gate receipts.
My proposal call for the elimination of Conferences and the faux-rivalries that they purport to support. Does anyone in Toronto really care about a 4th game against Florida? Does Dallas really have a need for extra trips to Calgary?
Why not retain the current 82-game, 6-division system, but make it work for everyone, travel-wise and gate-wise.
So you’d still have 6 divisions, only you’d go back to 8 divisional games, giving Snider more visits from New Jersey, Pittsburgh and the Rangers. He is on record as saying that he doesn’t make as money when the Thrashers visit twice.
Now rather than have Sid visit western Canada only once every three years (as he did for the first time in 2008), or once every two years (as he does now), I’d propose having Sid come to town every season, in every rink.
So with 8 divisional games versus your four true rivals, and 2 games versus the 25 non-rivals, you don’t need to drop games from the schedule, which makes all owners happy. Getting rid of Conferences allows for the possibility of far more Detroit-Pittsburgh playoff series, as well as the ever-rarer Toronto-Montreal Finals, while only demanding that the Eastern teams face the possibility of as much Round One travel as any Dallas-Vancouver, or Detroit-Anaheim series already demands. Which is so overrated anyway.
Have you ever taken a one-hour flight? The trip from door-to-door ends up being 4 hours or more anyway. A 4-hour flight ends up being a 6 or 7 hour trip. If I’m sitting in 1st class or on a charter, do I really care if I only have time for a quick sandwich or if my slightly longer trip gives me time for a nap? The whole travel myth is blown way out of proportion.
So doing away with Conferences allows for far more symmetry, league-wide, while giving tams what they want – more rivalry games. The drawbacks include finding a new designation for the Wales Trophy and Campbell Bowl, whose purpose over the last 30 years has been to sit on a table while nobody touches it. I can find a better use than that. Maybe bring in 4 new or re-purposed trophies and award them to the 6 division winners, so they skate them around the ice in March/April.
Another unimportant drawback would be another change in the ASG format, but I’ve long pushed for a Cup-Champs versus the World format that rewards the Cup winners with an extra, uber-lucrative home date on the next year’s schedule.
Either way, my desire for symmetry trumps all and no other system provides as much symmetry as that one season or two when all 21 teams played each other 4 times and nobody could complain about strength-of-schedule.
by Spezzal Teams Playa on Aug 24, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the next step is to combine the Winter Classic and the ASG. After having one in Washington, the only team left for the NHL, unless they go to Toronto and Montreal, is NYR, and then maybe CHI-DET-BOS again (no doubt PHI-PIT too). They’ve dug themselves into a hole and for sake of fairness probably have to include every team. But I’d like to see the ASG as the Winter Classic, and the format you suggested is good.
As for conferences, I’d suggest 2 divisions for 2 confereces, 4 total.
I think the point that you made that Washington gets a few extra, easier points against SE teams is completely valid. I just don’t like it when people blow it out of proportion, and you didn’t.
by red army line on Aug 24, 2010 5:48 AM EDT up reply actions
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