What will the blueline look like without Volchenkov?
by DarrenM on Jun 7, 2010 7:00 AM EDT
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PrintOnce the Ottawa Senators were eliminated from the playoffs, the biggest question on the minds of Ottawa Senators fans was "will the Senators keep Anton Volchenkov?" Lately, though, it seems the question has shifted to "What can the Ottawa Senators do when Volchenkov leaves?" Though it's not set in stone, it certainly seems as if Anton Volchenkov's time with the Ottawa Senators is finished, leaving behind a defense corps that looks younger and sketchier than fans would prefer.
Yes, this blueline is looking a little green.
As it stands, the Senators have four defensemen signed to one-way contracts, which means they are very likely going to be in the NHL next season, and probably with Ottawa: Chris Phillips, Filip Kuba, Matt Carkner, and Brian Lee. Add in Erik Karlsson -- a lock on the roster if there ever was one -- and that's five defensemen set for next year.
Heading towards July 1st, both Anton Volchenkov and Andy Sutton are Unrestricted Free Agents, while Chris Campoli is a Restricted Free Agent. As mentioned, it looks less likely each day that Anton Volchenkov will re-sign in Ottawa, and Andy Sutton's plans are even more mysterious -- hardly a word has leaked about if The Expert wants to stay in Ottawa.
Signing Campoli seems like a no-brainer, given his strong conclusion to the season and excellent play during the playoffs: Campoli was the only Senators defenseman (and one of only four players on the team) to finish on the positive side of +/- during the series against the Penguins. Furthermore, it should easy to sign him to a cheap contract because his stats are, for the most part, fairly underwhelming for a defenseman that does not make up for those numbers with a physical defensive game.
Operating on the assumption that Chris Campoli is signed, it leaves the Ottawa Senators working with the following defense corps (pairings made at random):
Phillips - Karlsson
Kuba - Lee
Campoli - Carkner
I don't know about you, but this is not a group that instills confidence in me -- especially given that the goaltending tandem will still be Elliott/Leclaire. The primary weakness here is what you'd expect from a team that just lost Anton Volchenkov and Andy Sutton: a lack of toughness. Outside of Carkner and Phillips, this is not the type of group that causes opposing teams to fear entering your zone, nor is it one that looks like it can put forward two solid penalty-killing units. This leaves the following five options:
- Ottawa sticks with this group to start the season.
- Volchenkov or Sutton re-sign with the club.
- Highly touted defense prospects Patrick Wiercioch and Jared Cowen impress at training camp, and one stays up with the club.
- GM Bryan Murray makes a trade or picks up a free-agent defenseman on July 1st.
- Murray trades Jason Spezza for the similarly-priced Wade Redden.
The importance of a solid defense cannot be understated, and it will be interesting to see how Murray works with his current hand. In terms of what Murray is paying for his current defense corps, Ottawa is actually situated pretty well: Carkner provides a fine value at $700K, Phillips and Kuba are priced fairly at 3.5M and 3.7M respectively, while Karlsson's 1.3M will likely be a steal if he continues to put up the kind of numbers he did at the end of the season. To be entirely honest, the biggest concern fans should have is not necessarily the Senators' current defensive lineup: it's that the team's cap-friendly blueline will be harmed with an overpriced free agent signing on July 1st, adding another bad contract to further handcuff the club.
That being said, what is your take on the team's blueline? If you're Bryan Murray, what would you do?
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Sign Pavel Kubina or Paul Martin
Both players will sign for cheap and can pick up the slack if Kuba leaves next year. That and I would sign Campoli and let Lee walk. He can’t spend the whole year in the AHL and he’s isn’t ready for the NHL, so let him walk or deal him.
by Alexander Calloway on Jun 7, 2010 9:37 AM EDT reply actions
I don't think either Kubina or Martin will come cheap
Kubina might make less than the $5M he made this season, but he’s only 32… he’ll still get a good long-term deal somewhere, especially after Dennis Seidenberg signed a four-year $13.5M deal with Boston this week. And Paul Martin’s only 28, making $4.5M this past season… I don’t see that coming too far down.
And although Lee’s already signed, I’m ready to close the book on this project. If he has any value, I’d like to see him traded at the draft for a pick or some picks. I’d rather give an opportunity to Cowen or Wiercioch than give another opportunity to Lee, although I might not be fair to Lee in large part.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 7, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm totally with you on Lee
He may still blossom with another club, but I don’t think he’s a fit in Ottawa.
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The Sens can bury a few players in the AHL to save up enough
by Alexander Calloway on Jun 7, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Too many one way contracts, though
Hard to imagine Melnyk wants to pay a bunch of AHLers 600K.
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Michalek
Zybnek Michalek should be the addition to the defence that provides Ottawa with four top 4 defenemen. There was an article on the Sens website at the Olympics about how much the Michaleks were looking forward to playing with each other, and with Milan locked in for four more years and Zybnek an unrestricted free agent Ottawa looks like a perfect match. He is a Chris Phillips type player with more of an offensive upside and still 28. I think he’d come to Ottawa for a 4 year 18 milion dollar deal. The other problem with Ottawa’s defense is Kuba. He has padded stats and nothing else. If his salary can be dumped, the prospect of bringing Michalek grows greatly and gives Ottawa the chance to maybe even keep Sutton. The most important thing to do is sign a good, two way, shot blocking defenceman in Michalek. If that is done, the D pairings for next year will look like:
Phillips-Karlsson
Kuba-Michalek
Carkner-Campoli
I would not be opposed to getting rid of Kuba and inserting either Sutton, or if that can’t be done then Cowen, ’Coch, or Gryba. Murray sadi that Gryba has a serious chance to be the Matt Carkner of this season, and only time will tell.
Also, your fifth option is a silly thing to write.
Heh, fifth option was an intentionally silly thing to write.
Thanks for the opinion. Seems a lot of Sens fans are dreaming of Z. Michalek, and rightfully so — he’s a great defenseman. That said, I think he’s out of the team’s price range.
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This doesn't make sense money wise
The point of signing Michalek is to sign him for below market value, but the cost of a good defensive defenceman is $3.5 to $3.75 million.
by Alexander Calloway on Jun 7, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
if BM was ready...
to offer 4 year, 16 million to Volchenkov and he refused (i don’t know if this is confirmed). That should be our max offer to Z. Michalek. If we can get 3 or 4 years at 3.5 million i would be happy. Z has more offense then Volchy
by Bikini Cowboy on Jun 7, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like a good option
I would hope that Murray at least gives ZM a call and hopefully asks MM to put in a good word for the Sens. It may not be doable, but I hope Murray gives it a shot.
the only problem is...
Apparently, the Coyotes want to sign him, but they can’t until they get their marching orders from the league or the new owner. Thank the commish he didn’t give the team to Balsillie. We would have a triple battle of Ontario with a brotherly war. No interest in that.
by Bikini Cowboy on Jun 8, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Michalek will be more willing to take a pay cut to come to Ottawa than Volchenkov is willing to stay in Ottawa. I think Michalek might also appreciate possibly playing alongside a countryman in Kuba. And it never hurts for Murray to inquire. From public knowledge it doesn’t seem like he does that very often.
I hope so, since he's the closest thing to Android out there... but I'm not counting on it.
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If I'm Murray, my question is: "Is there any way I can build a strong defensive corps this year?"
My answer would be no, but I wouldn’t be too worried because I know that the Leclaire/Elliott tandem are too inconsistent for it to really matter.
Knowing that, I would trade Kuba and Lee for whatever I could get for them. Then I would sign Sutton and let Cowen and Weircioch fight it out for that last spot. My opening night pairings would be:
Phillips-Campoli (yep)
Sutton-Karlsson
Weircioch-Carkner
And I’d be fine with that, especially if Lehner and Cowen develop well in the AHL.
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I like this as well... this is keeping it more realistic.
by Los Blancos Chicca on Jun 7, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't rush the kids
I don’t mind this, but I wouldn’t want Wiercioch or Cowen in the line-up unless they have really proven themselves in training camp. I’d rather develop them properly and plug in a short term FA if need be.
Agreed, I wouldn't want to throw them into the fire unless they could handle it
That’s why the winner of the battle gets third pairing in my head, and the loser doesn’t even get 7th defensemen, but a stint in Binghamton. If they can’t cut it, THEN I’d get a short term FA, but I wouldn’t get one before giving them the chance to make it. Karlsson proved a talented rookie can play Clouston’s system.
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Trading Kuba and Lee is not as realistic as we'd like it to be, I'm afraid.
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I think Kuba could be traded
but I don’t think he should be.
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I can't believe I agree
I was among his biggest detractors. But I want to see him on the top-line pairing again. And I want him to play an entire season, put up lots of points (you know, 40+), and play the playoffs, too.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 7, 2010 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, it depends what we could get for him and at what price. If we get some cap relief and a younger top four defenceman from a team looking for a vet, why not trade him?
by ojc on Jun 7, 2010 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
You forget that Cowen is either WHL or NHL -- no AHL for him.
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A "Crazy Scenario" I'm hoping for
I know this idea is going to make alot of 12 year old girls sad, but I think it is time this team moved on from Mike Fisher. And I believe we could get a deal that would make out hockey club much better. The connection of Fisher to Nashville is undenyable. It is the home of his futue wife. What if Ottawa could make that his home, in exchange for say Shea Weber. Obviously this would only be the starting point of the deal and Ottawa would have to sweeten the pot, but Weber only has two more years on his deal and will be getting a big payday when his time comes. Big paydays aren’t in Nashville’s management philosophy after the terrible Kariya signing. I think Fisher in Nashville would do alot of go in terms of publicity for the Preds. I don’t doubt that if Ottawa were to offer something like Fisher, Weircioch, and a 1st or 2nd that Shea Weber is wearing red, black, and gold. Obvioulsy Fisher has a no movement clause, so that complicates things but adding a marquee defenceman like Shea Weber is an opportunity Ottawa whould seriously explore. It would make our defence inpeneratrable.
I love me some Mike Fisher, but I think a Fisher for Weber deal would be a swindle for Ottawa
They’d have to give up more. And we have no centermen ready to step up if Fisher was dealt. We’d be the new Bruins, but without the gift of Toronto’s stupidity to restock the team with weapons.
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Fisher=hockey exposure in Nashville
Hockey is a business at the end of the day. People in Tennesse don’t really like or play the sport. With Fisher/Underwood combo there is the chance for some serious interest to be generated in the Preds. Obviously that deal is weak, but think of all the top 9 forwards Ottawa currently has. Foligno, Regin, Michalek, Spez, Alf, Kov, Cullen(hopefully), butler(potentially). A Fisher, Foligno, Weircoch, 2nd round package is quite a plunder. That’s three legitimate roster players and the chance for a fourth. This deal is also almost even in terms of cap hit. I’m not saying this can be made to work, but if I were Bryan Murray I would be looking into this.
I just don't know who would score goals for Ottawa with that trade
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Really?
Losing Fisher and Foligno isn’t that big of an offensive lose, I don’t think. Considering our 16th selection should be used on someone like Johansen or Skinner I think that our current offensive would be more than capable of sustaining the production from last year if Alfie, Michalek, Kovy, and Spez can avoid major injuries. I don’t know, I just don’t think the 32 combined goals would be that hard to replace.
by ojc on Jun 7, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I can see where you're coming from, but there are some long term questions that move creates
Like… Who centers Michalek and Kovalev with Fisher gone? What do we do next year when Kovalev leaves? What do we do in two years (or so) when Alfie retires? Now you’re looking at just Michalek and Spezza to carry the scoring load, and hoping that Regin and the players you draft will blossom into bonafide NHL scorers… and THAT assumes they’re ready to play in the same year they’re drafted. Plus, Fisher and Foligno are two of our grittier players. Losing that stuff hurts in the playoffs.
Stuff like that scares me, that’s all.
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Who centers Michalek and Kovalev with Fisher gone?
Tomas Plekanec
by Alexander Calloway on Jun 7, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I could live with that
It means no Kubina/Martin for you, though
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A few trades could save up some cash
by Alexander Calloway on Jun 8, 2010 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions
But who wants Leclaire or Cheechoo?
by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 8, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Not them
Kelly and Ruutu can be dealt for some picks.
by Alexander Calloway on Jun 8, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think their salaries add up to what either defenseman would be asking for, though
Especially since Plekanec is not going to come cheap.
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And you have to replace Kelly and Ruutu
So you’d free up $3.5M, but you’d have to spend at least $1M to fill those holes back up—and probably more than that if you wanted to fill them with any measure of talent.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 8, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Ruutu
I would not trade Ruutu for anything short of a top six forward or a top pairing defenceman. He is one of the best aggitators in the league. He kills penalties. He’s dirt cheap. He seems like a good influence in the locker room. He has finish when given opportunities. He can score in the shootout. I hope they resign him after next year. I think it would be a big mistake to let him go.
by ojc on Jun 8, 2010 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
He’s more valuable than any replacement you could get for the same price, with the exception of a dynamic young player on an entry level deal (although how we’d get our hands on such a dynamic young player remains to be seen).
by Peter Raaymakers on Jun 9, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I would be looking at regin to centre that line before going outside the organization. Guys like petersson, Silfverberg, Wick, Hoffman, hell, maybe even Zubov deserve a look at being on the roster. Depending on chemistry one of these guys could be playing with Regin and Kovalev on the 2nd line and Milan moves back to the first. And then there’s still guys like Butler, Smith, and Bass who might be able to contribute. I think our forward depth has become sufficient to make some two for one moves.
I think Regin would make a better Wing than Centre
He was great on the first line.
by Alexander Calloway on Jun 8, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s true, but the same could be said of Mike Fisher. And for some reason he has been labeled a second line centre and will never be moved to the wing where he probably belongs.
He's never clicked at wing
I can’t count the number of times he’s been played there but he just isn’t as effective when he’s not the lead forechecker.
Cannot play with 'em, cannot win with 'em, cannot coach with 'em. Cant do it.
That's putting a lot of faith in guys who haven't even really proven themselves in the AHL yet
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We’d only need one of them to step up. I’m not saying its a sure thing, but if one of them has a Regin like camp instead of making him sit in the pressbox for twenty games he could just stay on the roster.
by ojc on Jun 8, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't get me wrong, I would love for one of them to have a camp like Regin did
But that’s a tall order. Most guys need some time to grow. Regin didn’t really start to blossom until the second half of the season. Same with Karlsson. There’s a learning curve to playing consistently in the NHL.
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That’s also because Regin didn’t really get a chance until the second half of the season. He was third line/fourth line (I don’t know what you call the Kelly line, I think it’s more of a fourth than third, but that’s me), then he got hurt, then he was in and out of the lineup, then once there were some injuries he finally got a shot and stuck. If he had been inserted into the lineup in a second line capacity from the beginning of the season, who know what would have happened. I just think that if we did do this Fisher trade we could promote from within effectively enough to be at least as good as last year, probably better.
by ojc on Jun 8, 2010 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know about better -- though Weber would be a big boost
I can see where you’re coming from, but I don’t think there’s much likelihood of Fisher getting moved. It’s a good scenario to talk about nevertheless.
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Fisher is paid like a 2nd liner
But plays like a 3rd liner. That trade won’t work for both sides. Nashville sells low on Weber, and the Sens lose a center (as well as a popular player). I would love to have Weber on the team, but I don’t see that trade going though, even with Weircioch and a pick.
by Alexander Calloway on Jun 7, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Your caption cracked me up, Darren.
“Mike Comrie breakaway” indeed.
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Sign Tallinder
1. I would sign Henrik Tallinder to a 3 year deal and pair him with Karlsson. Tallinder is 32 years old plays a smart defensive game and would be a calming influence on Karlsson. He typically plays 21 minutes per night, plays short handed and likely wouldn’t be much more than 3 million against the cap.
2. I would trade Foligno & Lee for Cogliano. I know Murray like Cogliano. The Oilers need a 3rd pairing d-man and some grit up front. Cogliano has the chance to be a good 2nd line player here in Ottawa.
3. Re-sign Chris Campoli to a one year deal.
4. I would pickup a vet dman like Jay McKee or Adrian Aucoin, to one year deals.
2010-2011
Karlsson – Tallinder
Phillips – Kuba
Carkner/Campoli/McKee or Aucoin
The Sens have to be careful about who the contracts given out because in 2011-2012 Cowen & Weircioch should be ready to make the jump to the big leagues.
2011-2012
Karlsson-Tallinder
Phillips-Cowen
Carkner-Weircioch
Not bad
I like Tallinder. He would be a good addition and might be a good mentor for Karlsson(along with Alfie). McKee or Aucoin would be ok depth players if they were available on cheap contracts, but I wouldn’t go out the way to get either of them.
I’d be pretty surprised if Edmonton agreed to the deal you propose for Cogliano.
I like your thinking here
Not crazy about pairing Kuba with Phillips but I don’t know who I like Kuba with.
I hate to give up Foligno, but Cogliano is a player I like as well… the question becomes where do you play him? I’m thinking between Michalek and Kovalev on the second line, but that gives you a third line of some combo of Ruutu/Kelly/Fisher/Neil. Fisher can be more than a checking center, as he’s showed with Kovalev this past year.
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I like how no one has even suggested that there is a chance of resigning Volchenkov. He is overpriced and overvalued. Time for him and his 35 year old body to move on.
I don't think he's overvalued at all
Ottawa beat Washington and he blocked something like 8 Ovechkin shots. That’s ridiculous. His defensive play is top notch, and Ottawa’s current goalies need all the help they can get. Is that worth $5M a year? Nope.
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What I’m saying by overvalued is that he plays a one faceted game and this deal will probably see him out of the NHL. If he gets five years and he’s 32 at the end of this deal with his injury history he will be completely finished. I think A-train has another two years of playing his current style before his body begins to deminish. All of this culminates with his value being below what the general perception of him is. People believe wherever he goes he will be there for 7-8 years and help bring them a cup. I think whoever gets him needs to be ready to win in the next two years, because after that he won’t be able to maintain his level of play with his deteriorating body. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a great player on a 3 year 11mil deal, but for what he’s asking he will be overvalued and overpriced.
by ojc on Jun 7, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I get where you're coming from
It’s just that he excels at his one facet.
As for your other point, do you have any kind of proof that he’ll deteriorate after two years? Like, are you a doctor? I definitely don’t mean to be insulting, but your two year claim is pretty bold. Just curious if that’s more of an opinion or fact-based, because if it is, that’s a really good argument for Ottawa to not re-sign him.
Oh, and welcome to the blog! Keep posting “crazy scenarios”; they’re awesome.
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I know the plastic surgeon at the Civic hospital, and he preformed a few procedures on volchenkov’s hand when he broke it four years(?) ago. He said he had the body of a street fighting thirty year old then. he couldn’t believe that he was only 25. With the other injuries added onto that from the past few years it would seem he’s going to be slowing down. I don’t think he’ll dramatically drop off until he’s at least 34, but after 30 I think it will be a decline instead of a prime.
by ojc on Jun 7, 2010 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That's definitely a fair assumption based on what you've said
Thanks for clarifying, even if it’s info no fan could want to hear. One has to think Ottawa’s team doctors, and by extension, Murray, are also aware of the wear and tear on him.
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The more I think about it, the more I think signing A-Train to big money will just end up in a Jay McKee style situation. D-man with no offensive upside signs a big money contract. Plays 3 injury plagued years, then gets the last year of his contract bought out. I think A-Train is a more durable player then McKee, but I think much the same thing could very well happen. If we sign him to $4.5 – 5 mil a season that will be an absolute anchor dragging the team down going forward.
Is McKee the only comparable, though?
That’s what I want to know.
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Oooh, good one
It will be VERY interestting to see how he recovers from that shoulder surgery.
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