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Classic Stats: The most (and least) valuable players

The most valuable player is supposed to be the player who is deemed to be most valuable to a team's success. More often than not, this player is the one who puts up the most points. But what if you threw away individual statistics like goals and assists? What if you looked at how a team plays without a certain player in their lineup? How much of a hit does their record take if someone is subtracted? Or, in some cases, how much better is a team without a specific player?

Silver Seven looks at the Ottawa Senators' record with and without each player and comes to some conclusions on who the most (and the least) valuable players are.

The Most Valuable Players


Zack Smith GP W L T PTS WIN% PTS%P/GPP/82
In Lineup 15 10 4 1 21 .687 .700 1.40 115
Not in Lineup 67 34 28 5 73 .507 .545 1.09 89

Zack Smith is a fourth-liner. He rarely plays more than eight minutes per game, and has only three points in 15 games. But, when Smith plays, the team tends to win. The 10-4-1 record the Senators have when Smith plays is superb, but what's really startling about Z. Smith is that the team was 0-3 in his first three games. From January 14 onward, the Senators were 10-1-1 when Zack Smith dressed. That one regulation loss was in the final game of the season.

He's a hard-working player who makes his presence known every time he's on the ice. He does everything that's asked of him, and his reliability means that other players can focus on what they do best.

Star-divide

Chris CampoliGPWLTPTSWIN%PTS%P/GPP/82
In Lineup 67 41 21 5 87 .612 .649 1.30 106
Not in Lineup 15 3 11 1 7 .200 .233 0.47 38

Simply put, the difference between the Senators' record with Chris Campoli and without Chris Campoli is unbelievable. With Campoli, the Senators are 41-21-5 team. Without, they're 3-11-1. 93% of the Senators' points on the year came in the 67 games he played. When he's in the lineup, they're a 106-point team. Without him, they're a 38-point team.

For reference, the 1993-94 Senators - who had 10 fewer wins than any other team in the NHL - had 37 points.

 

Jonathan CheechooGPWLTPTSWIN%PTS%P/GPP/82
In Lineup 61 35 22 4 74 .574 .607 1.21 99
Not in Lineup 21 9 10 2 20 .429 .476 0.95 78

The numbers for Cheechoo are baffling at first when you consider his limited offensive output (14 points in 61 games, as many goals as he had hat tricks in 2005-06), but the win-loss record has less to do with Cheechoo and more to do with being sent down at the end of the 11-game win streak and missing the subsequent post-Olympic collapse. By all accounts he's a very likable guy and an excellent teammate, but the Senators' success with him in the lineup likely has little to do with Cheechoo himself.

 

The Least Valuable Players

Brian LeeGPWLTPTSWIN%PTS%P/GPP/82
In Lineup 23 10 11 2 22 .435 .478 0.96 78
Not in Lineup 59 34 21 4 72 .576 .610 1.22

100

Brian Lee is everyone's favourite whipping boy. Drafted 9th-overall in 2005 (ahead of Anze Kopitar, Marc Staal, and Paul Stastny), Lee never lived up to the expectations that come along with being a high pick. Lee and Matt Cullen are the only two Senators with below .500 records when in the lineup, except Lee's record is a sampling of a few games at a time throughout the season, while Cullen only played the final 21 games.

Is being listed as one of the least valuable players fair? Yes and no. This year's team defined streaky, so you can't fault Lee for occasionally hitting the anti-jackpot and getting thrown into a slump that was in no way his fault. That said, he hasn't played at the level necessary to stay with an NHL team, and therefore hasn't done much to help the Senators win.

 

Milan MIchalekGPWLTPTSWIN%PTS%P/GPP/82
In Lineup 66 33 27 6 72 .500 .545 1.09 89
Not in Lineup 16 11 5 0 22 .688 .688 1.38 113

Milan Michalek has the misfortune of having played injured, so he hasn't been able to play at the top of his game in months, and Michalek needs to be healthy to be effective. His game is all about speed, and injuries like ACL tears dramatically hinder speed. I don't think Michalek has as negative an impact on the team as the numbers suggest, but the Senators' record without him in the lineup does bode well for the remainder of the postseason. This is especially if Peter Regin continues to make a case for staying in Michalek's spot on the top line.

Expect Michalek to rebound nicely next season, assuming he can stay healthy.

 

Ryan ShannonGPWLTPTSWIN%PTS%P/GPP/82
In Lineup 66 33 29 4 70 .500 .530 1.06 87
Not in Lineup 16 11 3 2 24 .688 .750 1.50 123

Finally, Ryan Shannon. He's had a poor year statistically, scoring 5 fewer points in 31 more games than last season, and when he dresses he seems to get benched far too often. It feels like he's always a healthy scratch, yet he played 66 games. He and Shean Donovan always seem to get passed over for a roster spot so that one of the kids (like Z. Smith) can get some playing time in. But the fact is, Shannon hasn't brought enough to the table this season to warrant staying in the lineup, and the team's record without him says everything. He is, for all intents and purposes, the least valuable player on the 2009-10 Ottawa Senators.

But congratulations on that new contract, Ryan.

 

Ottawa Senators record when players are in and out of the lineup:

In the Lineup
Player
Not in Lineup
39-26-5 Alfredsson, Daniel 5-6-1
41-21-5 Campoli, Chris 3-11-1
44-31-6 Carkner, Matt 0-1-0
35-22-4 Cheechoo, Jonathan 9-10-2
9-10-2 Cullen, Matt 35-22-4
16-12-2 Donovan, Shean 28-20-4
43-30-5 Fisher, Mike 1-2-1
34-22-5 Foligno, Nick 10-10-1
31-24-5 Karlsson, Erik 13-8-1
44-31-6 Kelly, Chris 0-1-0
41-30-6 Kovalev, Alex 3-2-0
29-22-2 Kuba, Filip 15-10-4
10-11-2 Lee, Brian 34-21-4
33-27-6 Michalek, Mian 11-5-0
38-25-5 Neil, Chris 6-7-1
44-32-6 Phillips, Chris 0-0-0
40-30-5 Regin, Peter 4-2-1
44-32-6 Ruutu, Jarkko 0-0-0
33-29-4 Shannon, Ryan 11-3-2
10-4-1 Smith, Zack 34-28-5
33-21-6 Spezza, Jason 11-11-0
8-8-2 Sutton, Andy 36-24-4
35-26-3 Volchenkov, Anton 9-6-3
27-22-3 Winchester, Jesse 17-10-3

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I'm the first to comment on this because I've been up all night for work!

I plan to sleep in and then wake up and watch the Sens! WOOOO!

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Apr 18, 2010 8:09 AM EDT reply actions  

Also, really good article

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Apr 18, 2010 8:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Interesting to see them so close to .500 with Alfie out

I wonder if his value to the team is dropping?

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Apr 18, 2010 8:12 AM EDT reply actions  

holy mark parisi comments

and i feel like I’ve seen him make gummy bear comments before…

anyways, as always, a really cool article. where did you grab these stats?

Also, I felt that again the other night, chris campoli looked very good. He didnt make any mistakes that I saw, made some solid defensive plays, and some good first passes. At a minimum raise for depth on D (assuming neither Cowen or Weircoch are QUITE ready), do you guys think we should keep him?

http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/

by DaveYoung on Apr 18, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

I got the stats from ESPN. I went through the game logs for each player to see what the team’s record was with that player in the lineup. I couldn’t find split stats, so I had to do each player manually. Fun times.

SNAAAAAAAAAKE!!! - As seen briefly that one time on Hockey Night in Canada - Silver Seven - Cycle Like the Sedins

by Ryan Classic on Apr 18, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

wow. just wow

http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/

by DaveYoung on Apr 18, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think one thing is obvious: Ryan Shannon needs to come out of the lineup tonight

I’m also still amazed with the Chris Campoli Effect. The difference in winning percentage is the greatest in his instance, it’s unreal. And, considering his replacements were Lee and Picard, I imagine it’s probably not just a coincidence. Campoli has quietly had a pretty good season this year.

He is, for all intents and purposes, the least valuable player on the 2009-10 Ottawa Senators.

But congratulations on that new contract, Ryan.

Now THAT’s Classic. Great post.

by Peter Raaymakers on Apr 18, 2010 11:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Clouston has stated no lineup changes

Shannon stays in.

Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.

by DarrenM on Apr 18, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I saw that

But Shannon still needs to come out. Clouston needs to change his mind!

by Peter Raaymakers on Apr 18, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

to have and to hold?

http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/

by DaveYoung on Apr 18, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

It seems that way sometimes

But I guess if he wasn’t loyal to them, his gruff personality wouldn’t fly.

Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs

by Mark Parisi on Apr 18, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sens would be 82-0.

Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.

by DarrenM on Apr 18, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hah

I decided to leave goalies out for today. I’d actually like to see each goalie’s record before and after the Eli Wilson firing.

Actually, that’s a good idea. I think I’ll look into that.

SNAAAAAAAAAKE!!! - As seen briefly that one time on Hockey Night in Canada - Silver Seven - Cycle Like the Sedins

by Ryan Classic on Apr 18, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

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