Analyzing the Ottawa Senators' probable playoff roster
The trade deadline has passed us, and as expected, the Ottawa Senators did nothing on deadline day. However, that's not to say they did nothing, as here are the changes that took place in the weeks before the deadline:
IN: Matt Cullen (F), Andy Sutton (D)
OUT: Alex Picard (D), OTT & SJ's 2nd round picks
SENT TO AHL: Jonathan Cheechoo
That leaves the Ottawa Senators with the following current roster (lines subject to change, of course):
| Forwards | |||||
| Michalek | Spezza | Alfredsson | |||
| Cullen | Fisher | Kovalev | |||
| Foligno | Regin | Shannon | |||
| Ruutu | Kelly | Neil | |||
| Defence | |||||
| Phillips | Volchenkov | ||||
| Karlsson | Sutton | ||||
| Carkner | Kuba | ||||
| Goaltenders | |||||
| Elliott | |||||
| Leclaire | |||||
Scratches: Winchester, Donovan, Campoli
There is also always the chance that Brian Lee or Jonathan Cheechoo could get called up for the playoff run, if their skills are seen as required do to injury. Now, let's look at this lineup...
Pros:
The Senators have a good mix of skill and grit, which is what you want in the playoffs. The addition of Sutton means they've got a blueline that should strike fear into opponents, which will reap benefits in preventing players from running the goalies. There are enough scoring threats spread out through the line-up that secondary scoring won't be the problem it was in the 06-07 Cup run. The Senators also have a good amount of depth, which will serve two purposes:
- Replace players in case of injury
- Allow Cory Clouston to tailor his strategy according to the opponent. If you find the Ottawa defense too slow and lacking offense? Bench Carkner, bring in Campoli. Team not playing physical enough? Bench Shannon, bring in Winchester. Not enough players from Moose Factory? Bring in Cheechoo.
Cons:
Goaltending is still the biggest concern. If Elliott or Leclaire manages to hit a groove before the playoffs, things could be fine, but I still doubt their mental toughness to recover from any sort of bad bounce in the playoffs. Neither of these guys has played a playoff game, which makes me even more nervous, but maybe they're one of those goaltenders who somehow stands on his head in the postseason despite being subpar the rest of the year (see: Osgood, Chris). Another problem is that aside from Chris Phillips, the Senators defensemen are all one-dimensional, either offensively or defensively (and even Phillips has very limited offensive utility). This means that the defense can either shut down a line or set up some offense, but rarely can it do both, which limits the Sens' transitional game. Finally, the defense is also kind of slow, which could definitely be a problem against more offensively-inclined teams.
Overall:
The Senators have a solid, versatile, hard-working roster that should get them into the playoffs, perhaps even as the leader of the Northeast Division. Considering most didn't have this team pegged as making the playoffs when the season began, that's pretty impressive. However, given the moves Murray made in trading away second round picks for rental players, simply making the playoffs is not good enough anymore. As mentioned earlier, the team has added the type of pieces that do damage in the playoffs -- strong defensive players who play with an edge -- which should help the Senators come playoff time.
It really comes down to goaltending. If Leclaire or Elliott can provide solid, capable netminding, then the Senators can do some damage come playoff time. If the netminders remain inconsistent, however, then it will be the same old Senators playoff hockey.
0 recs |
18 comments
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Comments
Goaltending Worries
First of all, fantastic website!! The coverage, analysis, and insight are all phenomenal for a guy who just doesn’t have the time to watch 82 games anymore.
I couldn’t agree with you more about how goaltending remains our biggest question mark.
I have to think that Leclaire has the highest top end potential, but given how well Elliott has performed, it seems like a gamble at this point to put Leclaire in for string of 5+ games to get going.
On the other hand, I feel like if we go with Elliott, he seems to be the type of goalie who can do everything right on most nights, but can also do everything wrong. I heard a comment about Joe Corvo yesterday that he’s a guy who has a higher level he can play at, but also a much lower one where he plays like crap. The first guy I thought of was Brian Elliott. He was overperformed for most of this season, or has he? Is he the real deal, or is he just another Alex Auld who gets hot for 15 games and then goes cold for 20?
How Ottawa plays out their goaltending situation for the remainder of the season and into the playoffs will be critical to any success (or lack thereof) in the playoffs this season.
We’ve seen how much of an impact it can have by going into the playoffs on a roll. Let’s hope one of these two goaltenders can get on one and keep it going.
Go Sens Go!!!
by inspired.stupidity on Mar 4, 2010 9:31 AM EST reply actions
Thanks for coming by!
And thanks for joining.
I think you’re right about Elliott: When he’s good, he can be pretty good, but when he’s bad, he can be awful. It seems like that’s the case with a few recent Senators goaltenders, just as it is with Corvo. So the question will continue to dog the Senators, really, until they’re done in the playoffs; if that last game is a win, you can be sure Elliott (or Leclaire, if that happens) will have become a much more respected goaltender in the league.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 4, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
Goaltending
Neither of these guys has played a playoff game, which makes me even more nervous, but maybe they’re one of those goaltenders who somehow stands on his head in the postseason
Fact is, the only way these guys can get playoff experience is by putting them in nets during the playoffs. We are well ahead of where most said we’d be at the moment. And so if we shit our pants in the playoffs this year, well, we’re still ahead of the game.
But we also have building blocks for the future. And that’s reassuring.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
Agreed with that
There’s only one way to get playoff experience, so it’s not avoidable; plenty of good goaltenders were questioned until they played in the big game—see Luongo, in these past Olympics. It’s a lot like Andy Sutton: He plays a style that’s suited to the playoffs, but he’s hardly been tested there, and we won’t know how he will do until he does it.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 4, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Sometimes it's true...
Good players sometimes become crap players in big games. See Thornton, Joe.
by inspired.stupidity on Mar 4, 2010 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
I guess the best way to evaluate this team is to compare it to the 06-07 Finals team.
Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson vs Michalek-Spezza-Alfredsson
Alfredsson isn’t the same force, but he’ still an elite ageless wonder. Spezza’s game seemed to decline until fairly recently, when he finally realized he could shoot the puck. Michalek is a downgrade in terms of goalscoring from Heatley, but brings better defense, speed and grit. Though less offensively dominant, I like the current incarnation a bit better, especially for play-off hockey (Though hopefully Michalek isn’t doubly cursed come play-off time. After all he is a former Shark. Scary.)
Cullen-Fisher-Kovalev vs Schaefer-Fisher-Comrie
Certainly a HUGE upgrade. Fisher is having his best year, Cullen is so much better in all areas than Schaefer, and Kovalev, when he wants, can do things Mike Comrie can only dream of. Again, 2010 wins it, though much more emphatically.
Foligno-Regin-Shannon vs Schubert-McAmmond-Eaves(Saprykin)
Ok, I realize I’m comparing 2010’s third line with 2007’s 4th. That’s because 2007’s 4th and 2010’s third are almost identical. Got that?
Anyway, another major upgrade. Regin lacks McAmmonds veteran status, but he often plays with veteran poise. He can do it all, and I believe that at least in terms of offensive and defensive play, he’s the next Alfie. Foligno brings more to the table than Schubert, though he sacrifices some grit. Shannon and Eaves are almost a crap shoot really. Still, once again a major win for 2010.
Ruutu-Kelly-Neil vs Vermette-Kelly-Neil
Less offense and versatility, more grit. More scoring on every other line makes up for the former. The latter is essential com play-off time. And 2010 sweeps the forward ranks.
Phillips-Volchenkov vs Phillips-Volchenkov
Phillips just seems to get better with age. His poise in his own end, and his improvements at moving the puck, make him probably the most underrated defensive defenseman in the league. Volchenkov is a beast, and everyone knows it. Obviously a draw, though i might lean towards 2010 as added experience could help out. (Note: I still believe they should be separated, putting Karlsson with Phillips and Kuba with Volchenkov, therefore spreading out the offense and defense and balancing the pairings.)
Redden-Meszaros vs Kuba-Karlsson
Kuba isn’t really a downgrade from post 2006 Redden. just MUCH cheaper. otherwise your getting the same. 30-40 point offensive minded defenseman who gets overpowered in his own zone. like-wise Karlsson and Meszaros look very similar, but I’ll give the edge to Karlsson, as despite his size, he doesn’t shy away from contact.
Sutton-Carkner vs Preissing-Corvo
So much different…gritty defense instead of steady offense. The lack of the latter was part of the 07 teams downfall…could this be this years Scuderi-Gill? I certainly hope so. If this pairing requires some mobility or offense, Campoli could step in. I’m going to call this a draw.
Elliot vs Emery
Oh how very similar these two are. Both came in as rookies and helped salvage a season, then watched as management brought in a unproven starter who was supposedly better. Then both won the number one job when the new starter faltered. But since Elliot isn’t a headcase, I’ll give him the advantage.
LeClaire vs Gerber
Both can let in agonizing softies. LeClaire has more upside, but is about as fragile as a glass Sami Salo figurine. Draw
So, if you count a win as 2 points, a draw as 1, and a loss as 0, 2010 wins hands-down. 2010: 12 2007: 3
I think we have a very good chance of coming out of the East this year. Washington has the same problems as the Russian national team: no defense or goaltending. New Jersey is about our equal, but we could beat them in a 7 game series. We always have Buffalo’s number. Pittsburgh should be exhausted after two long play-off runs. Philadelphia has two back-up goaltenders. If we can exploits these flaws, we could make it to our second Finals.
by GelatinousMutantCoconut on Mar 4, 2010 12:48 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Wow, intense post
I’ll rec it simply because you put so much effort into it, rather than because I agree with it. You should FanPost this sucker so it sticks on the sidebar!
Anyways, I disagree with some of your comparisons. Alfie-Spezza-Heatley is better than current Alfie-Spezza-Michalek. Other than that, I mostly agree with your assessment, basically because even though Vermette is the best player on that fourth line, he wasn’t fully utilized. Preissing and Corvo is also probably better than Carkner and Sutton, but it’s hard to tell. And truth be told, I had a lot more confidence in old Emery than I do in current Elliott.
Another problem is that this doesn’t analyze special teams… that 2007 team could score on the powerplay, which is huge come play-off time.
I give the edge to 2007 simply because of the weight I give special teams and goaltending. However, I’ll admit that it’s fairly close.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
Sorry!
In no way did i mean that Michalek-Spezza-Alfredsson is better than Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson. I just feel that Michalek’s speed and grit are more suitable for play-off hockey than Heatley’s ‘wait for the puck to hit my stick, than do something’ approach.
There’s no way this line accomplishes as much as the Pizza line offensively, but defensively it’s better. I gave it the edge because of that, and not because it can be even close to as dominant on the scoresheet.
Preissing-Corvo is better in some ways yes. They both move the puck fluidly and put some 30-40 points, and excel on the powerplay. But Carkner and Sutton can shut down the opposition, and pummel them into oblivion. I gave them a draw, because they are so different, you just can’t compare.
oops, I did overlooke special teams. Our penalty killing is excellent, but if we don’t get our powerplay going, it might spell trouble.
by GelatinousMutantCoconut on Mar 4, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
This is a great idea
You should definitely make this into a FanPost.
Darren’s special teams breakdown is true, but great analysis. One disagreement I’ll make is Redden-Meszaros vs. Kuba-Karlsson: Redden in 2007 was still solid, and Meszaros was so much bigger than Karlsson that it could be a huge difference in the playoffs. I think the forwards, as a whole, are better now, but the defence are a might worse. Goaltending is just as much of a crapshoot.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 4, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Third vote for fanpost
Though I think the 2007 team was stronger than you’re giving them credit for. That group of forwards played a fantastic defensive style as well as scored a ton of goals. Could this group match that? I doubt it. We have more balanced scoring now (by far) but still, this team has only looked elite for 16 or so games. They need to continue to play at that level before they turn me into a true believer.
I’d also argue that Emery is better than Eliott. Emery wasn’t a headcase that year — he was just eccentric. He certainly had the athleticism to recover from mistakes that Elliott does not. Elliott’s strength is in positioning. He’s never going to make the sick diving saves that Emery (or Leclaire) was capable of.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
"as fragile as a glass Sami Salo figurine"
I laughed. A lot.
SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE!!! - ryanclassic.net
Uh-oh
I didn’t know you could fan post…
before you guys mentioned it, I sent it into Sens Chirp for Chirp of the Week.
Sorry about that!
by GelatinousMutantCoconut on Mar 5, 2010 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
We really need to explain FanPosts and FanShots
Bottom line, your analysis is as good as—and often better—than ours, so use the FanPosts to write it down.
If it’s just a quick link or something, use the FanShots section. They’re pretty awesome.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 5, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Great analysis
In the 2007 playoffs (until the finals, anyway), Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson really carried the team in terms of offense. The top line just cannot do that, at least not yet. So the other lines absolutely has to take up the slack in terms of scoring.
On defense, it is somewhat worrisome to say, but Karlsson is key. With Kuba not doing much, where is the offense? Corvo was pretty good back there in that respect.
by Sens Fan In NYC on Mar 4, 2010 12:59 PM EST reply actions
Projected Lines vs Alternative Scenario(s)
Ottawa’s group of forwards are unique relative to years past, in that there is a tremendous amount of built in versatility and depth. There are plenty of natural centres that can also play wing towards the bottom of the depth chart, in Cullen, Regin, Kelly, and Winchester.
And upon Foligno’s return, we’ll likely see Winchester, Donovan, and given the potential for an injury or two, Cheechoo relegated to the press box.
Anyhow, below are the standard views on who could play with whom up front;
Michalek-Spezza-Alfredsson
Regin-Fisher-Kovalev
Foligno-Cullen-Shannon
Ruutu-Kelly-Neil
Now while it`s clear Spezza is the number one pivot, and that Michalek has played the vast majority of time on the first line, we have seen instances (against a higher powered team like the Caps, for example) where Alfie plays on the second line alongside Fisher, forming a scoring shutdown line of sorts. I wouldn`t necessarily count that scenario out come playoff time. Regin and Foligno are somewhat of a tossup for 2nd or 3rd line winger, but I`m giving the edge to Regin because he can also step into the faceoff dot if needed, and Foligno will be fresh off a fairly major injury.
That said, and given the abundance of capable centres on the second and third lines, we may see changes with a fully healthy roster + Cullen. Here are some purely speculative line combinations that aren`t out of the realm of possibility:
Michalek-Spezza-Kovalev
Regin-Fisher-Alfredsson
Foligno-Cullen-Shannon
Ruutu-Kelly-Neil
Starting with the 4th line, I would like nothing better than to see it remain unchanged until the end of the year. Again, whether I`ve pegged Foligno correctly as a 3rd line winger behind Regin is up for debate. This third line has tremendous amounts of inherent speed and responsibility built in. Second line has Alfredsson`s finesse balanced with a similar flow from the left with Regin, and is a threat on both ends. And finally, I just want to see what Spezza and Kovalev can do together outside of the powerplay, as they play both a crazy puck-possession based game, and Michalek has quite the nose for the net. That line does frighten me a little defensively, but makes my head spin with the potential for tick tac toes and quick releases. Now please, chime in with your own…
I always forget about Foligno!
The depth is pretty amazing… if only they could do well and win a game.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 4, 2010 9:57 PM EST up reply actions

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