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Stop dreaming - the Sens won't be division champs

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I have to crush this strange outside hope making its way in Ottawa that says the Senators can win the Northeast Division. Most fans have gotten it out of their heads, but there seems to be that optimistic minority (including an sports media personality that asked Cory Clouston about it yesterday morning -- I'm not kidding) that figures the Senators somehow could walk away with the division title. They cannot. It can not happen. I mean, it technically can happen, but it requires the Sabres to completely implode and the Senators to go on the kind of run they went on before the Olympic break. Let me break it down for you:

  1. The Sabres have 90 points, the Senators have 83.
  2. That's a 7 point difference, in case you were wondering.
  3. The best the Senators can do is 99 points. The Sabres could lose every one of their 10 remaining games in overtime and still finish ahead of a perfect Senators team.
  4. Though the Senators do face the Sabres twice (meaning if the Senators win both of those they close the gap by 4 points and prevent the Sabres from earning the points), it doesn't really matter. The Sabres have played 2 less games than the Senators, giving them 4 more possible points to make up for those two losses.
  5. Hockey Reference says the probability of the Sens winning the division is 0.7%. Sports Club Stats has it at 0.665%, which is pretty much the same thing.

The fact of the matter is that Ottawa is fighting to finish somewhere between 5 and 8. Thankfully, the probability of that happening is extremely high, currently at 98.7%. I realize it's not the division title, but it's far better than the 10th to 13th that almost every hockey commentator predicted Ottawa would finish in.

Poll
What position in the Eastern Conference will the Ottawa Senators finish at the end of the season?
2nd - 0.003% probability
3 votes
3rd - 0.665% probability
7 votes
4th - 0.733% probability
5 votes
5th - 53.6% probability
96 votes
6th - 26.2% probability
25 votes
7th - 13.2% probability
3 votes
8th - 5.3% probability
1 votes
Out of the playoffs - 1.3% probability
3 votes

143 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 14 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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PeterR’s fifth-in-the-east prediction from the start of the year will come true.

knock on wood.

i wanna play buffalo though.

by oldmonk on Mar 26, 2010 9:24 AM EDT reply actions  

"I'm calling it: Second in the Northeast, fifth in the Eastern Conference."

Clairvoyant! Although I also predicted it would be Boston finishing first, and Ottawa would be in a dogfight with Buffalo and Montreal for second in the division.

by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 26, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sens to finish 6th!

Or So I hope! A first round matchup with Buffalo would probably be a good thing. I think that option is probably better than playing Pens or Devils in the first round considering Buffalo still seems to have no offense. Yes Miller could steal a game or two, but I don’t believe he steals the entire series!

by DigitalDreamer on Mar 26, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Buffalo could finish 2nd

Which means the Sens have to finish 7th to meet them.

Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.

by DarrenM on Mar 26, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Being a Sabres fan, I welcome the idea of playing the Sens in the first round. Well, maybe I don’t. But mark my words, one day, Buffalo will end this curse against Evil Ottawa! Go Sabes!

by KTyczka on Mar 26, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

That day will come...

When Derek Roy grows a pair.

So…

by Mike Hurley on Mar 26, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I feel like this may end up like 2005-06. Of course, y’all remember how that ended right?

Die By The Blade - An SB nation destination for Sabres fans everywhere

by Zachary Zielonka on Mar 26, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

We all forgot about it after 2006-07. That one was fun.

by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 26, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

For the record, I am not rooting fo a Buffalo matchup

I’m not against it at all, but I’m not at all in favour of picking and choosing opponents—too often, it comes back and bites you in the ass. So while I think we match up well against Buffalo, we’re going to have to go through Washington or Jersey or Pittsburgh at some point, so it doesn’t really matter.

by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 26, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

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