The stretch run: Ottawa's biggest remaining questions
When the Ottawa Senators' season resumes tomorrow, there will be just nineteen games remaining in their schedule. This, folks, is the epitome of a stretch run -- how the Senators perform in these final games will have an impact that cannot be exaggerated.
Though the team is sitting in third place of the Eastern Conference and first within their division, it took the setting of several team records to get them there -- and that hold is tenuous with a one-point lead over the Buffalo Sabres, who have three games in hand. This Senators team will probably make the playoffs, but beyond that, we cannot speculate. Here's what we do know: There are questions surrounding this team, as there are with all 29 others. Here are some key questions that have to be answered over the next month for the team.
Will the team make another trade?
This question might be answered by the time you read this. Rumors abound that Matt Cullen's teammate, Aaron Ward, is next on GM Bryan Murray's list, but these are just rumors; nothing that one could call credible has been put out there.
Everyone seems to believe that the Senators are not done tweaking their roster. Our esteemed PeterR has an outstanding list of what players the team may be targeting. They have a glut of depth at forward, while they are dangerously thin on defense. Chris Campoli's knee injury means the team is relying on Brian Lee as their sixth defenseman. So far in his NHL career, Lee has been serviceable on his best nights and utterly ineffective on his worst. Murray continues to state that Lee is in the team's long-term plans; many (including myself) doubt this. An injury to any of the five remaining blueliners means the team has to call up Derek Smith, who seemed a little overwhelmed in his first two NHL games before the break. The stretch run is not where you want to have a rookie learning the ropes, and the team already has one player doing so in Erik Karlsson.
That being said, Murray does not have to make a move. The team has shown tremendous chemistry this year, especially in winning 14 of their last 16 games. The GM may not want to tinker with a successful formula. In addition, the team has very little room to maneuver under the salary cap. If partners have too high an asking price, or the Senators have to move too much salary in return, they may decide to stand pat instead.
(coming up: the oldest question in Ottawa, road woes, and more...)
Who is the starting goaltender?
While Cory Clouston is blunt in his assessment of his players, he is equally enigmatic when it comes to his plans for them. While it was extremely telling that Brian Elliott started the game against the Islanders after playing the Red Wings the night before, Clouston has given no verbal indication of what his plans for his netminders are. Thus, we are forced to speculate.
Clouston has said all the right things, giving us such gems as "They both have to be ready" and "We'll take it game by game," which sounds a lot like former coach Craig Hartsburg last year refusing to admit Elliott had outplayed Martin Gerber. However media-driven the designation of a starter is, the fact remains that a team plays better with a steady influence behind them. Teams play better (i.e. more comfortably) when they know and trust their goalie, and just like any other chemistry, that comes from ice time together. They may say they believe both guys give them a chance to win, but they play with more confidence in front of one. Right now, that person is Brian Elliott, so expect to see him get the bulk of the starts, and be in goal when the playoffs start.
How far will Brian Elliott take this team in the playoffs?
And right now, this is a question no one can answer. It will be fun to find out!
How will the Olympics affect the players who attended them?
Daniel Alfredsson, in particular, is someone who needs fresh legs to be at his best. Of course, it cannot be understated how much the captain means to this team: When he is at his best, they are at their best. But how much gas left in the tank does Alfie have? It took an injured shoulder to get him the rest he needed to recharge his batteries; will they need recharging again? Don't be surprised if he starts to miss practices again as the season winds down. No player has benefited as much from the team being able to roll four lines effectively as Alfredsson, but Clouston may find a way to get him more rest as it becomes necessary.
In addition, both winger Milan Michalek and defenseman Filip Kuba were told to skip practice yesterday to rest bumps and bruises. This comes after the entire team was given Saturday off, and is at least worth a mention. Michalek battled hard in the Olympics and has slowed considerably since his scorching start as the grind of the season appeared to catch up with him. His health is critical to this team since it means the difference between a four line and three line night. Meanwhile, Filip Kuba simply cannot afford any injuries. His game is inconsistent enough as it is, and if injuries affect his ability to pass or play the body (ok, that was a joke), he will become a true liability on the ice. That would result in a catastrophic domino effect on his normal partner, Erik Karlsson, and whoever Matt Carkner's partner winds up being.
Can Erik Karlsson hold up?
Karlsson's roller coaster year hit another dip when he injured his shoulder before the Olympic break. Though few would have believed it at the start of the year, his presence has been noticeably missed. Karlsson's offensive skills cannot be replaced, and his positional play in his own zone is slowly blossoming from sound to strong -- he plays angles instead of bodies to his advantage.
Of course, this is because he is undersized. Karlsson will never be a big guy, but his size is going to become a factor as the games become more physical. Players are going to be targeting him, especially with a sore shoulder. His playoff initiation is looming and he is a player this team needs in its lineup to beat the top seeds in the East.
Can this team win the Northeast Division?
As mentioned earlier, the division is anything but locked up right now. Though the Sabres have three games in hand, they also have two more games against the Senators. They will also be asking the same Olympic wear and tear question about their goalie, Ryan Miller.
While Senators' opponents during these remaining games are favorable, the schedule is not. The team plays essentailly every other day from this point on, and only seven of those games are at home. The remaining twelve are on the road.
This matters because the team is just 13-15-1 on the road this year, with seven of those wins coming in the last 16 games. That's right, before January 14th, the team had won just SIX road games all year, and the remainder of their season comes on the road. On the other hand, they have only lost eight games at home all year. Winning the division is more than just a matter of pride for this team. Home ice advantage will be a big factor for this team if they can manage to pull it off. The schedule hasn't done them any favors in forcing them to essentially win it on the road.
The good news is that they've put themselves in a position to win, and there's no reason to believe they can't. If the team can turn their road fortunes around, it will be quite the promising omen for the playoffs. If they can't, they might very well be exposed as pretenders in short order.
So, there you have it. There's plenty to watch for in these upcoming games. What will you be on the lookout for in the days ahead?
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Comments
I think Alfie will be alright for the stretch. Sweden did get bounced early, so in turn essentially got 4-5 days of rest post Olympics.
I was looking at the Eastern conference matchups currently and would be quite happy seeing Ray Emery and the Flyers come to town in round 1. I think we’d also really like a Buffalo or Pittsburgh matchup in the first round. I think Buffalo is on the way down the standings looking at their form leading up to the Olympics. Miller played balls out and has been doing so pretty much all year, I think Darcy Regier will probably sit on his hands again at the deadline, so I doubt he’ll be getting any help going forward. Brodeur was playing like crap and the Olympics did little to nothing to raise his confidence level, so I wonder how safe their top 3 spot is.
Great stuff, Mark!
I am definitely nervous about the health of Alfie and Karlsson.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
Too many semicolons
I need to write more coherently
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I think it was very strong, and totally coherent
I don’t understand your fear of ’U’s, though. You and all Americans.
Also, agree with you and Darren: Kid Karlsson’s going to take a beating in the playoffs, I hope his shoulder can take it.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 1, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I always think about stuff like that when I'm writing
“Will Canadians judge me for writing ‘defense’? Will they hate me for not spelling it ‘favourable’?” But that’s not how those words are spelled to me… I can’t bring myself to write them even though I know my audience is mostly Canadian.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Trade Deadline
With Alfredsson nearing the end of his career, how much pressure is Brian Murray facing to win now? I would think the organization would want to do as much as they can to try and win a cup during Alfredsson’s tenure but at the same time, is the team willing to jeopardize the future giving away picks and continually being strapped against the cap in the hopes of winning in the next 2-3 years even if it means starting a rebuilding process once he retires (I suppose Alfie could play beyond that but 2-3 years beyond this season seems realistic)?
I love Alfie
But I wouldn’t want to see Murray sacrifice the future in an attempt to win now, even for Alfredsson’s sake. We saw where that approach got the team last year, as Muckler’s moves finally came to a head.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Agreed
Murray’s actions to date have shown that he is not interested in a ‘win-now’ mentality, because it doesn’t work: You overpay for established players, and building from within gives you the freedom to groom square pegs for square holes.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 1, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
This probably means no Cup for Alfie, though
And that makes me really sad to think about.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
We had a line of Heatley-Speeza-Alfie on 07
They’re are no 100% in sports. Epecially with this playoff system.
by Crooklyn Banks on Mar 1, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Very true, which is why I said probably
The playoffs are a whole different animal… any team that makes it has a chance to win it. I genuinely believe that.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I think Murray will stay the course this season, but next season he will definitely have to go into a win now mentality. Kovalev will be in the last year of his contract, Alfie obviously not getting any younger. If they can get one of their young d-men to show they’re NHL ready they should be in good shape to contend among the top teams in the East, if they aren’t already there. During the Sens recent hot streak they have beaten all the teams that had been ahead of them in the standings. I see no reason why Ottawa can’t have a deep run in the playoffs if they’re rolling 4 effective lines and getting reasonable goaltending from Elliott of Leclaire.
Well he could...but probably wouldn't be as effective offensivley.
If anyone could play past 40, it’s Alfredsson. His offense game would slide, but he could still proide a solid 3rd/4th line roll.
However, this year and next are critical, as they may be his last ones as a top-line forward.
I think Murray knows this, and will make the moves necessary to upgrade our defense to Cup-calibre.
by GelatinousMutantCoconut on Mar 1, 2010 12:04 PM EST reply actions
But the question is: If Murray makes the moves to upgrade our defense to Cup-calibre, will they have enough pieces left to make a run at the Cup? While we have depth at forward, it isn’t great depth and we have very few players that can realistically be moved. We could throw five guys like Kelly at a team and they wouldn’t give up a top defenseman for them.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
I don't think it's smart
Making a move to make a cup run works if your team is already a strong favourite for the Cup. It doesn’t work when you need to make a big move (top four defender) to do it, and the Sens will lose some good young players or picks just for a rental.
I just don’t think this team can get it done with the question mark in goal.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
Agreed
As well as the Sens have been playing, they are not up there in terms of a top Cup contender. As this point, I would say in the east it’s Washington head and shoulders above every other team. In the West it’s SJ and Chicago.
Could the Sens really beat any of these teams in a playoff series? Don’t think so — even with Kubina or Seidenberg or any of the D people are talking about.
Even though the Sens have just recently beaten Chicago and Washington?
Neither of those wins are flukes in my opinion. Those teams have plenty of firepower, but their goaltending is just as suspect as ours right now. I wouldn’t be shocked by any playoff series win by this team — they’ve proven they can beat the best NHL teams already. The big questions are if they can stay healthy and maintain the intensity necessary to do so in a series.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Totally agree. Cory Clouston has had this team playing better then .600 hockey since he’s taken over as coach. He’s shown this season to be rather effective at mixing and matching his lines to suit the game instead of standing pat. I think that type of coaching will quite help this team in the playoffs.

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