Our big losses (and wins)
by Adnan on Nov 16, 2010 1:24 PM EST
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PrintAfter last night's loss to Philadelphia, I was thinking how many times we have been totally blown out of the water.
We have played 18 games, won 9, lost 9 (if you count overtime loss as just a loss). Of those 9 losses, 6 of them (Toronto, Pittsburgh, Montreal, Boston, Vancouver, Philadelphia) have been by 3 or more goals, and 4 of those have been by 4 goals (Toronto, Boston, Vancouver, Philadelphia). That is just astounding, we get blown out every third game. Two of them were one goal regulation losses (Montreal and Buffalo) and one overtime loss to Washington.
Of our 9 wins, 3 of them have been by 1 goal (Carolina, Toronto, Montreal), another 3 by 2 goals (Buffalo, Florida, Boston) and another 3 by 3 goals (Phoenix, Islanders and Atlanta). However, I would point out that Toronto and Montreal wins only became 1 goal games at the end, and the Florida game was 5-1 at one point.
We haven't played too many close games (only 2 games have been tied after two periods and we lost both). Contrast this with last year where we had an incredible record when tied after 2 periods, 13-2-4. Another indicator of our lack of close games is that only 1 out of 18 games has gone to overtime.
As a summary, we are 3-2-1 in 1-goal games, 3-0 in 2-goal games, and 3-6 in 3+ goal games. So half our games are blowouts. Last year we were 20-5-6 in 1-goal games, 14-5 in 2-goal games and 10-22 in 3+ goal games. This can be taken two ways, we are either really good (at least until we have a big lead) or really bad. My concern is that we are not finding ways to win toss-up games. These are games where we weren't the better team or the worse team, but manage to get a big goal at the right moment.
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I think it's clear this team is not built to play from behind
We don’t have the players on our roster to fight for dirty goals that get us back into games when we’re down by two or more.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Just not tough enough
If you watch how we play against other team’s tough lines, except for Neil’s line and Fisher himself and sometimes Winchester, we get manhandled along the boards, and don’t win enough of the one on one battles. I expected us to get creamed by the Flyers and we did for all of those reasons.
It’s hard to understand why this management is sticking with the players we have come Hell or high water. In the case of Volchenkov and Sutton, I understand why they were let go, but did they expect Eric Karlsson to replace them??? Even with Volchenkov and Sutton I found that even though we were tougher we were just barely tough enough.
It's a fine line
Tough guys who are also skilled are hard to find. Too many crashers and you’ll win board battles and have no one to put the puck in the net. If it were easy to find the right mix, every team would do it.
I don’t know how much of a choice management has when it comes to sticking with the players they have. It’s extremely hard to get a fair return on a player in the salary cap era (see Dany Heatley) and Murray is clearly restocking the team from the goal out. Cowen and Gryba will be adding toughness on the back end eventually, but it’s unrealistic to expect those players to be ready overnight. We have to play the players we have in the meantime.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Ottawa is definitely in a position where they have pretty much 2 choices. Bottom out and restock through the draft and clear out everyone, or do as we’re doing, try to be prudent with drafting, groom players internally, try and keep the core together and supplement with veterans. I think the problem with the NHL right now is that bottoming out truly has better yields then the route we’re going.
The teams that bottom out are also much more likely to jump right past the Sens as they rebound because they are drafting higher end talent than what Ottawa is supplement their lineup with. The Sens have stayed in the middle of the pack in the East while Tampa, Pittsburgh, Washington etc have vaulted ahead after being mediocre for a few seasons.
But on the other side of the coin Ottawa is not a city that will tolerate losing. The fanbase has shown they will stop showing up if the team stinks. Personally I think the team has to be accountable to the fanbase and they are right to expect a competitive team. Something I’ve always resented the Leaf fanbase for is the fact they still fill the building even if the team reeks. What incentive does the ownership group have to field a competitive team when the fanbase fails to keep ownership honest?
by modsuperstar on Nov 16, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
Those are really good points. I find it interesting that the city won’t support a losing team after doing so for most of the mid 90’s. The fans have become spoiled.
Although I would argue that bottoming out is not necessarily the best strategy… The teams you mentioned rebounded quickly because they were able to draft generational talents and support them with elite talents, but there’s no guarantee that tanking a season is going to get you that kind of player. You don’t have to look further than our early 1st overall picks to see that.
Of course, you must be able to draft well no matter where you pick. The current state of the Devils shows us that a playoff team is simply not sustainable through the draft alone, which means that free agent signings are critical. You miss there and you hamstring your team for years. Murray’s UFA record so far is pretty unimpressive.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
Pas important
I don’t mind losing by a large margin because a team will never make more then 2 points in a game. Fans and the media will get into a huff in two circumstances: a blowout or a series of losses. I prefer the former.
by Bikini Cowboy on Nov 17, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Good god it has 4 recs!
I am going to retire and never make a fanpost again, tis’ my finest hour.
I need a speech!
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
Bullshit, you need to post more
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Nov 18, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
You know what they say...
IT’S NOT WORTH LOSING IF YOU CAN’T LOSE BIG!
by Peter Raaymakers on Nov 16, 2010 9:22 PM EST reply actions
seriously...
…did I make this comment to you recently? I was about to make an image with coach reilly saying this for an article I’m going to write, and then was stunned to see it here. I’d been thinking of this line since yesterday.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
Realism...
Mark is very realistic, while other fans like me are not. Being someone who follows the draft so closely, I believe that teams should be able to draft well from anywhere if they do their homework and keep their draft picks. I prefer to dream that we pick well and find another Alfredsson in the later rounds for example.
I look at Jared Cowen and figure he should be ready by now, but in reality it takes time to build a stud dman. I believe that with all the attention management has put on the defence in the past few years, it should now be our strength and it isn’t.
Trying for the quick fix like Burke in Toronto is a disaster waiting to happen. Buying overpaid UFAs is not the way to go either, cause you end up with no money for the role players.
Building through the draft seems to be the best strategy, but a team has to pick really well and add a couple of new players who overachieve every year along with their best players performing well and getting great goaltending in order to win anything. That’s not an easy combination to get all at once.
No matter how skilled a team is, without enough toughness, they can’t win consistently. When I watch the Canadiens play, even though they have several Smurf-sized forwards, they are so much tougher to play against than the Sens. I mean outside of the incredible goaltending they are getting lately. Their defence seals off the front of the net and along with the role players hits hard in the corners.
Toi-là
You are really a pro-toughness guy. I think right now we are missing talent and not toughness. For toughness, we have Neil, Carkner, Kelly, Foglino, Ruutu, Hale & Fisher. For talent we have Spezza and Kovalev. Alfreddson is tough, talented and the man Chuck Norris would like to be.
You said that you would never forgive drafting Lee over Kopitar. I agree because we need more talent.
by Bikini Cowboy on Nov 17, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
I think Marvellous is saying we’re missing toughness on defense. You need primarily talent up front in your top six, and toughness on the back-end. Of course, you need a good combination of both, but I do think that Ottawa lacks talent up front and lacks toughness on the back-end.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
Pas vraiment
Look at our toughness scale:
F: Alfredsson (always first), Foglino, Fisher, Kelly, Ruutu, Neil, Winchester & Z. Smith in the minors = 7 NHL + 1 AHL
D: Phillips, Carkner, Hale = 3 NHL
We already have the balance, half the team is tough.
Marvellous is exclusively going for toughness. For example:
It’s hard to understand why this management is sticking with the players we have come Hell or high water. In the case of Volchenkov and Sutton, I understand why they were let go, but did they expect Eric Karlsson to replace them??? Even with Volchenkov and Sutton I found that even though we were tougher we were just barely tough enough. by Marvellous on Nov 16, 2010 4:53 PM EST
So last year, when we had Sutton, Volchenkov, Phillips & Carkner with the big bodies of Kuba and Lee (no hitting though), we were still not tough enough.
by Bikini Cowboy on Nov 18, 2010 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
yeah I don't buy this whole toughness thing
You can always pull a random tough guy from the minors like Carkner. But you can’t find people like Karlsson too easily. Of course you want someone with skill and toughness like Chara, but those are rare to find (although we did kind of voluntarily let it go).
Plus, from an entertainment point of view, it is so much more fun watching Karlsson put someone on a breakaway pass than watching a couple of goons punch it out. Although, of course big hits are entertaining too, but let’s not forget, the winner at the end of the day is the team that scores the most goals.
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
But toughness does matter
Karlsson is never going to be a guy who separates a player from the puck by physical force, and that’s something teams need come playoff time. Karlsson is already decent at using angles and body position for separation, and that’s good, but the reality is that we can forgive his lack of hitting if he’s helping the offense score — that way he is still contributing.
But someone has to be willing to battle for pucks, because the rules are different in the playoffs, and everyone knows it.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Nov 18, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Oh of course it matters
It just doesn’t matter as much as skill, not even close. I mean sure you could muscle a guy off the puck, or you could poke the puck away. Look at Lidstrom, how often does he hit a guy or overpower someone, but he was/is still sound defensively.
There are skilled players that are tough as well, like Getzlaf, Perry, Ovechkin, etc. I am just concerned that some people tend to over glorify the contributions of grinders like Neil, etc. The times I have heard “Oh I would rather have Neil than Spezza, because at least he has heart” just makes me tear my hair out. Granted this is mostly red on the Sun’s comment page, but still it is ridiculous.
As for the rules being different in the playoffs, it is not quite as big a difference as it used to be, but yes it is still there and that is too bad. A hockey game is a hockey game, the rules should be the same in 1st game of preseason and game 7 of the finals.
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
And it has to be the right kind of toughness
I was a huge fan of Sutton while he was here, but his hit on Leopold didn’t intimidate the Pens at all… in fact, it woke them up. I like players being hesitant to cross the blueline, but if that’s the case, then we need to win the battles in our own corners. I’m not sure we have the d-corps to do that right now. Sure, we can get the puck out quickly, but we have to actually GET it first.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Nov 18, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Facile
Would you prefer a big hit or a goal? I will go with the goal all the time. If the game was played with "Who scores the most hits" then it would be more important but for now… Goal are more important then hits
by Bikini Cowboy on Nov 18, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you Darren.
We lack toughness on the back-end. If we had that on the back-end then our talented players like Karlsson would have room to exploit and would be able to prevent the blowing of some of our leads.
I also do agree that we lack some talent up front, but I would say that the back-end needs to be addressed more urgently than the front end… We are scoring an average of 2 goals a game and letting in about 3 goals per game. But knowing our team, we cave when we are down by a decent lead and we don’t rally back. So leading and securing the lead seems the way to go for us, which is why I think we should address the back-end before the front.
by Los Blancos Chicca on Nov 18, 2010 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
But how would you address it?
Look at the talent we’ve got waiting in the wings… Are you going to sign a UFA defenseman and keep them in the minors longer than they should be there?
I think Murray has already addressed the back end and we just need to be patient.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Nov 18, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
No I didn't mean for the future... I meant for now.
Murray has worked hard during the drafts, and I have a good feeling about the future Sens… I was focused more on right now.
I am patient and I am fan that rides the waves no matter how tough it gets. The only thing is I love Alfie so much and I think he deserves another shot with the team he has captained his whole career at some silverware…
This is why I am pressing for now, it’s not because I am being impatient.
by Los Blancos Chicca on Nov 18, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
haha I am talking like he's retiring now..
I know that was an emotional reason, but that’s why I want the back-end addressed soon.
by Los Blancos Chicca on Nov 18, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
haha I am talking like he is retiring now...
I know that was an emotional reason, but that is why I want the back-end addressed soon.
by Los Blancos Chicca on Nov 18, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Our team isn't that far away
I think in the offseason, we have a lot of cap room. We let Kovalev, Leclaire and Phillips go, replace Phillips with a $1.5-$2 million guy, and make a big signing (Semin, Parise, etc.)
Now I don’t think Elliott is the long term solution, but hey Niemi and Leighton played the Cup finals, so stranger things happen. But more likely wait for Lehner in a couple years to be ready. If we feel Lehner might be a while, Vokoun is always available at the end of the year I believe.
Aside from that, we have one of the best centres in the league in Spezza, he is only going to get better and we have two premium offensive defencemen in Gonchar and Karlsson. Alfredsson is still an excellent player (on pace for 35 goals at age 37), we just need a few more offensive threats.
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
Yeah we aren't far off at all...
I said that after the playoffs earlier this year and I’ll say it again. I think Murray will prove have done a great job drafting. But I do expect interin solutions to be addressed during the season or during the offseason. Until the guys that were drafted are ready to come in. I just want these solutions to be good so that Alfie has a shot while he is here in case some of the guys we drafted need more time than expected.
by Los Blancos Chicca on Nov 18, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
I actually think Murray agrees with you
I think all his moves have been to try and get Alfie another shot at the Cup, and they’ve been at the expense of the future of the team. Luckily, he drafts well enough that it’s not a criical issue… yet.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
That is true of the Kovalev signing
But the Gonchar signing can be both ways. It helps us now, but it also helps in the long term with the mentoring it provide Karlsson.
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
Really, you and I aren’t so far apart in our opinions. I agree that there’s talent available at every round of the draft — the key is correctly identifying it. And even then, that’s only half the battle. Talent isn’t enough to make it in the NHL, unless you’re a generational guy like Crosby or Ovechkin. Players must be developed correctly, and that’s still a crapshoot. Does your team fit the skillset of the player you picked? If it doesn’t, why did you draft him? Is the player willing to do the work it takes to succeed at the professional level? Does your coaching staff teach in a way that the player understands? Can you afford to play the player the number of minutes necessary to grow him?
There’s just a ton that goes into making it. Players like Alfie and even Elliott don’t get as far as they do without being the right fits for the organizations that draft them. There’s a lot more that goes into drafting a player than just picking a guy like it’s gym class. They need to fit with the club and its needs at many, many levels in order to succeed. Teams that find those guys consistently succeed and the ones who don’t are constantly “rebuilding” — and this is always a problem because firing management means you’re starting at square one PLUS you’re trying to fit your existing players into a new system.
I truly believe the rebuild Murray is doing is the best hope for continued success. A few bad seasons and it’s easy for a team to get locked into the continual death-spiral of “rebuilding.”
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
merci
We have played 18 games, won 9, lost 9 (if you count overtime loss as just a loss). Of those 9 losses, 6 of them (Toronto, Pittsburgh, Montreal, Boston, Vancouver, Philadelphia) have been by 3 or more goals, and 4 of those have been by 4 goals (Toronto, Boston, Vancouver, Philadelphia). That is just astounding, we get blown out every third game. Two of them were one goal regulation losses (Montreal and Buffalo) and one overtime loss to Washington.
Thank you carrying on my "cause célèbre": http://www.silversevensens.com/2010/11/3/1791779/lets-forget-the-otls
We have toughness in the system
There is no need to go outside of our farm system to get this desired toughness. Gryba and Cowen should both challenge for roster spots next season. Obrien seems to have turned a corner offensively and his defensive game is still as strong as an ex-defenseman’s should be. Mark Stone is tearing up the WHL with his mix of grit and scoring. Ottawa’s largest problem is Murray and Clouston’s lack of balls. They need to address the fact that many of the players they believe are their leaders should be watching from the press box. Philips and Fisher have played like ECHLers for the past three weeks and there has been no recourse. If Fisher is indeed hurt then sit him and let Butler show what he can do. If Philips can’t get his head in the game let Hale or Gryba come up and give it a try. Doesn’t Clouston preach accountability? Obviously these would not be popular decisions, but continuing to get blown out is not an option.
Benching isn't the answer
Phillips hasn’t had a good season, but I am not sure benching him is the answer. Hale did alright, but let’s not overestimate his contributions. He simply didn’t make mistakes playing against 3rd liners. Now assuming Phillips is benched, either Hale is now suddenly defending 1st liners with Gonchar, or we reshuffle the deck, especially on the PK. The end of the season is the time to replace Phillips, when we can replace him with an top 4 NHL quality defender.
Fisher is a different case, if he is injured, then yes he should sit.
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
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