Silver Seven Roundtable: Early Season Slump Edition
As Peter and I discussed the aftermath of Monday's loss to the Penguins, it became clear we had some questions about the team to discuss. And that's how a roundtable is born. Read on to see what we think about the current state of the team and what changes we might make if we were in charge. Then post your own answers in the comments section.
What's your current opinion of the team? Are they better than their record? Can they turn it around?
Mark: I think the team is capable of turning it around. It's pretty frustrating to watch them give their best efforts when the game feels out of hand. But even in some of the losses, the effort hasn't been the problem -- it's been the team game. That's especially confusing considering this is mostly last year's roster. They shouldn't have to build chemistry. They seem to be lacking in confidence more than anything, and I think a confident Sens team would look a lot more like the one we expect to see.
Peter: I think this team is definitely better than their record, although they're playing as poorly as their record would lead people to believe. There are good players, and some are even playing pretty well, but it seems like they're playing as individuals rather than buying into a coherent system and playing like a team. I think if and when they figure out they're not going to win games single-handedly, then we're going to see consistently better results. But it's not going to happen any time before that.
Darren: Of course they are better than their record. You can't look at the team on paper and think that they are anywhere as bad as they have been playing. They can certainly turn it around, but it will take hard work and a solid structure in their own end, something that has been lacking. Let's not forget that this team went for a 6 game losing streak last season. Maybe they've just done us a favour and gotten it over with at the start of the year.
Ryan: I think the roster, as a whole, is better than the team's record. The problem is they don't seem to have the cohesion of a team, and that's leading to disjointed play and the worst record in the NHL. Last season we saw the streakiest team in Senators history, but so far this season I'm just not feeling it. Not with the roster as it is now.
(read the rest after the jump...)
What changes, if any, would you make if you were the coach?
MP: The one big change I'd make as coach would be on the power play. I'd try to balance out the talent a little more evenly between the two lines. I'd also pull those players into a separate meeting to talk about what they want to do with the man advantage. I feel that the team's power play has been predictable since 1999, and with the players available, that simply should not be the case. Alex Kovalev working the wall was supposed to be a big help. It wasn't. Sergei Gonchar's quarterback skills were supposed to be a big help. They haven't been. We know Gonchar can run a power play. I would try and find out how he likes to do it and build around that instead of trying to fit him into our existing unproductive scheme.
PR: I'd make a couple changes if I were coaching, although nothing to do with the roster. The first would be being smart when and where lines start and end their shifts; for instance, play Mike Fisher or Chris Kelly's line for a defensive-zone faceoff, and save Jason Spezza's for offensive-zone faceoffs, basically to optimize the opportunities our scoring line gets and to ensure adequate defensive responsibility. The second is something that he has little choice about, but I think it's important that the team reduce the minutes Sergei Gonchar plays every game down to 22-25, instead of 26-30. As much as I've been impressed with his play, you've got to understand and appreciate that he's an older player who's missed significant time due to injury over the last couple seasons. Any bigger changes would have to come from the GM.
DM: Though I'd like to see the Regin-Spezza-Alfredsson line, again, that's not the change this team needs right now. The change the Senators need is to relearn the fundamentals of playing hockey in their own end. They need to get into the shooting and passing lanes, play physical, backcheck hard, and work on their breakout. Oh, and that powerplay could use a little bit of work.
RC: I would scratch Brian Lee and put Erik Karlsson with either Campoli or Carkner, because the Karlsson-Lee tandem frightens me. I'm also not opposed to scratching Karlsson for a few games. But most importantly, I'd switch to pea green shirt and tie combos, because that's what Clouston wore during our one win this season. Dump the lavender, Cory. It's not working.
Similarly, if you were the GM, what would your level of panic be? Would you make any moves? Who would you try to acquire? Be reasonable -- no trading Kovalev for Kovalchuk.
MP: If I were the GM of this team, I'd try to resist the knee-jerk reaction to add a defenseman, even though that's our pain point right now. Filip Kuba will return at some point and though he's not going to fix everything, he should allow players such as Matt Carkner to settle into more appropriate roles. That small shift might make a big difference. More importantly, next year the team will only have Gonchar, Erik Karlsson, and Matt Carkner under contract. Waiting in the wings are Patrick Wiercioch, Jared Cowen, David Rundblad, and even Eric Gryba. I don't know that I would necessarily rush to add a D with that youth movement in my back pocket. More importantly, there are some quality defensemen that will be hitting free agency at the end of the season. If I'm setting my sights on adding a defender through free agency, I'm definitely looking to trade one of our young defensemen for a similarly promising forward. But with this year's team, I'm standing pat unless a great offer falls in my lap.
PR: At this point, there's probably little Bryan Murray can do. He can trade away some of his more valuable players for less-than-market value, and bring up prospects like Bobby Butler, Roman Wick, and Colin Greening to play with wily veterans like Dean McAmmond and Shean Donovan, but this would constitute blowing up the team--something owner Eugene Melnyk seems unprepared to do. Cap constraints are tying Murray's hands to a degree, so he's just got to hope that Cory Clouston can get the team back on the same page. If not, within a few weeks, there may be teams ready to make a splash by trading some players.
DM: I think the team could use another shutdown defenseman to pair with Phillips, to be honest. Other than that, I don't think there's anything Murray should do -- the team just needs to play smarter, and work together.
RC: My panic level would be pretty high, because right now the only thing going well for this team is Mike Fisher's effort level and Robin Lehner's cameo appearances. As much as I and many others would love to see Lehner be handed the reins here and now, it's not his time yet. He's not ready. Instead I'd focus on defence and get someone stable and complimentary to Erik Karlsson's game. Someone like Andy Sutton was last year.
Finally, we all predicted the team to make the playoffs. Anyone want to take that back?
MP: Nope. There's enough talent on this roster to make the playoffs, and there's enough time left for them to correct their play.
PR: Even if I did want to take it back, I don't think we can do that, can we? Either way, although it's not looking pretty today, the team still does have the component parts to get into the playoffs, and should things begin to go well, there's no reason to believe they won't. It is worthwhile to mention that in the 2006-07 season, the team started with the same record they have today: 1-4-1 through six games. This refrain will get old fast, but the season is still young.
DM: I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the season after 6 games, and I sincerely hope that the Senators aren't, either.
RC: I predicted them to take the Northeast. I'd like to retract that prediction. We won't make the playoffs. I also don't mind crashing and burning and getting a good pick or two this year. Specifically a good forward pick.
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D-men under contract in 2011-12
Hey Mark, unfortunately we’ll be paying Kuba’s hospital bill’s for another season at 3.7M$ per in 2011-12
Would I love to ship him out this season for an expiring contract and remake our D drastically going forward? Absolutely, I just don’t think it’s all that likely.
Ha, whoops!
I even mentioned him in the response! All the more reason to consider one of our prospects for a forward prospect.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the idea about letting Gonchar do what he wants
The powerplay wasn’t great last, hasn’t been good so far this year, so let’s try doing it his way and see what happens?
Also when is Kuba supposed to be back anyway? It’s been 6 games and 14 days, another 4 games and 7 days would be enough for LTIR wouldn’t it? That would give us a bit of extra cap room (pro-rated on time missed but still). Or can this not be done retroactively?
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
LTIR cap room is usually done retroactively. I’m not sure when Kuba is due back, though.
by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 21, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the Sens need an actual win. Everything has been a challenge so far this season, even the game against Carolina where they blew a 2-0 lead and had to win it in the third. They had that game in Montreal up 3-1 only to blow it in the third period. What this team needs right now more then anything is some confidence. I think spanking the Sword 5-1 tomorrow night would be a great start.
As much as everyone hates on Kuba around here the dude is a valuable d-man and has been since he got here. I think getting him back in the lineup will do a world of good. Getting Lee out of the lineup will do this team a world of good.
This team needs to remember what has brought them success in the Clouston era, solid forechecking, blocking shots and out skating teams. I haven’t seen much of any of those things from the games I’ve watched so far this season.
blocking shots
Good point. I don’t remember seeing a single shot block from the Senators in the games that I have watched this season. I know they lost Volchenkov and Sutton who were the two best shotblockers last season, but they still have Phillips, Carkner, Kelly, Winchester, etc and I would think someone would get down in front of a puck every now and then.
Apparently Carkner has 12 blocked shots
Fisher leads the forwards with 6.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
A quality win would go a long way towards building confidence
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
But the Sens could still lose the game against Buffalo
Because they don’t have to leave the locker room to spank the Sword – it’d be pretty damn weird if they were spanking the Sword as a team, though. Or maybe a bonding exercise?
I think you’re comparing the Sens to what the NHL was last year.
This team hasn’t been the same since Heatley left. They are slower, older, and predictable. While they have been competitive, they aren’t contenders. They need to shake things up and I’m all for Murrary making a deal, so long as it makes sense. Hopefully he can make some magic happen.
hmm...
You’d think that d pairings of Philips/Gonchar Kuba/Karlesson Campoli/Carkner would be really, really good. I mean, wouldn’t you? But without major trades, these are also likely to be the pairings next year aren’t they? I would keep this for the season and then move Campoli for a forward prospect to allow room for Cowan and one of Gyrba, Wiercoch, or Runblad next year. Keep Carkner as a 6th/7th. This is unless Campoli completely outplays Karlesson this year. Then I’d trade special K. Both those PMDs should have pretty high trade value and should yield a good fwd. That’s right, I suggested that we could trade Karlesson. I feel dirty.
I'd rather let Phillips go to be honest
We can replace him for a cheaper defenceman like Anton Babchuk and/or defensive prospects in the system. With the money from Phillips, Kovalev, and Leclaire (if we don’t re-sign him), I’d like for us to make a move for a high end offensive talent, Semin is unlikely to hit the market but if he is there…
There is also Fleischmann, while not a superstar, he’d definitely be a welcome addition.
There are also RFAs available should we choose to make an offer, Jeff Carter, and theoretically Stamkos and Parise too. Okay the last two will never make it to the market, but there are always options.
This year’s team will turn it around, and they will make the playoffs, and they will hopefully still win a round. But next year is where I think we can return being contenders.
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
The option of letting Chris Phillips walk is obviously available, but replacing him with someone like Babchuk will only make sense if there is a significant difference in the salary demanded. If Phillips’ contract demands are reasonable, I don’t see why the Senators wouldn’t keep him around.
by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 21, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't be too sure on Parise
With the Devils’ cap problems this year, they might be vunerable to an offer sheet they’re unable to match, like Peter suggested somewhere else. I’m ripping off his idea.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
He still might not hit the market
They would be wise to trade just about any of their other assets before letting Parise walk, and even if they somehow can’t, they would likely be able to trade Parise’s rights to another team, who would then sign him to a deal.
The danger for Jersey is if they take their sweet-ass time getting themselves set up to sign him. If they haven’t cleared space by July 1, the offer sheets will be coming in fast and furiously. And the Devils won’t be able to match without having cleared that space.
by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 21, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Parise likely will hit the market
He is making 1/2 to 2/5ths what he is worth right now, and the Devils have well over $50 million committed to next year’s salary. Either he signs a Kovalchuk-esque deal for infinity years, which is possible, or he walks and signs a deal for more money over a shorter term.
He’d look real good in a Senators uniform, thats for damn sure, and we can definitely afford him.
1. Sadly, for a team with so much depth in defensive prospects the Sens don’t currently have much depth in actual NHL defensemen. Before the season, I thought that the loss of Volchenkov and Sutton would be the Senators biggest potential achilles heal and unfortunately that is turning out to be the case. I like the idea of bringing Hale back into the team to provide some stability. For now, I think the best pairings the Sens can ice are going to have to be something like: Phillips-Gonchar, Hale-Campoli, Karlsson-Carkner. Karlsson played so much better last year when he had a big physical defensive partner who would back him up when he gambled. Carkner is the only guy that really fits the bill and to get the most out of Karlsson I think that is the only way to do it.
2. Agree about the power play, you’ve got to turn it over to the veterans and get them on the same page. Sit Gonchar, Kovalev, Spezza and Alfredsson down together and get them to agree on a plan. Maybe they will come up with something crazy that will make a difference(say putting Fisher and his hard shot on the point sometimes, or using Carkner in front of the net or whatever).
3. Stick to the system. While I still believe that Ottawa can be a playoff team, they are in the same boat as most teams in the league in that they have a very thin margin for error. It doesn’t take much for the system to break down and without a Kane, Ovechkin, Crosby around to save the day that spells doom.
4. Better skating/positioning. At one time Ottawa was one of the fastest and most mobile teams in the league, but those days seem to be long gone. Still, you absolutely cannot afford to have the other team skating circles around you on a nightly basis.
5. Get some breaks. This is the biggest on for me. A few breaks at the right times and Ottawa’s record would be at least .500 right now. If this team gets a couple of bounces and wins say 3 out of the next 4 games they will be right back in the middle of the pack and they can set about methodically moving up in the standings as the season progresses.
Havlat for Kovalev?
I know no one will agree with me, but it is the same cap hit, although Havlat has 4 more years.
Havlat has such tremendous upside if he stays healthy, like he showed in his last season with us, and the last one with the Hawks. Plus after Alfie retires, we really have no high end skilled wingers. We could sign an RFA or a UFA, but this is an option too.
Now I don’t know if Minnesota would do it, but it would be a cap neutral trade for them this year and give them 5 million of cap relief after.
With Havlat there is always the injury risk but, I think he would fit in well here.
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
I don't buy this rumour
I wouldn’t have a problem with it if Ottawa pulled the trigger here, but I seriously doubt the validity of this rumour—even as a rumour. As far as I can tell, it’s been initiated by SenSay, who gets no credit from me when it comes to rumours. Nothing personal against him, but any time there’s an anonymous blogger who suggests they have some level of high-ranking contacts who spill rumours, I will reserve credit until something can be proven.
It’s speculation or hopeful thinking, at best, I would suggest.
by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 21, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh I didn't know it actually was a rumour
I just have a certain affinity to Havlat. :P
Sens fan in Toronto since 2000. (Thank you Martin Havlat).
My thoughts exactly.
SenSay writes some good stuff, but I’ve never seen one of “his” rumours come to fruition.
Chirp on the other hand has a slightly better record, and while he posted it today, I assume it just came to him from someone reading SenSay.
I also would not be opposed. He provides what Kovalev was supposed to provide, high end skill on the second line, and some excitement, and while he has had injury problems, his work ethic isnt often questioned like Kovalevs is.
At the time of the Kovalev signing I was sincerely hoping it would be Havlat’s name on a contract.
http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/
not to mention that while he has 4 years left on his deal...
He is only 29 years old (not 37 like Kovalev) and to be honest, there arent any wingers in the system with his skill level, even potential wise. The wing is where we are thinnest.
http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/
I’d love Havlat for Kovalev. But it won’t happen.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
...oh I know :(
just wishful thinking. He was always one of my faves, and it was sad to see him go for nothing in return.
http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/
Yeah, it would be a big win for Ottawa
But there’s no chance Minnesota could be that dumb
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
by Mark Parisi on Oct 21, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
They lose with that deal and everybody knows it. The only way they could win would be if they questioned the long term health of Havlat, and dealt him based on his contract being a risky investment from their standpoint. However, it’s not like Kovalev is fully healthy this season, either.
I treat Sens Chirp with the same credibility as SenSay
He is a better writer, there’s no doubt, but I’m not going to give someone who posts anonymously any credit. I’ll read the posts, but I’ll never once buy a rumour either of them say.
by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 21, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Chirp clearly has a connection inside the org, though, in terms of people being called up/sent down. He had the news of David Hale’s call up before anyone else did.
It doesn’t make any of his trade rumours less bogus, but he’s at least been right on some things.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
I used to feel that way.
But I’ve been reading his stuff for a long time, and once upon a time he did say “introduce” himself.
His name is dave!
But I agree, I dont buy it either.
http://ottawasconsensus.blogspot.com/
with all of this Campoli seems to always fly under the radar of critics despite being awful defensively
he always goes wild up front and acts like a 3rd winger and leaves his d partner alone. Sure he gets a couple of goals but defensively, with karlsson, gonchar or lee…not always a smart thing to do
Agreed, having Karlsson, Gonchar, Lee and Campoli in our top-six makes me nervous in itself because it means that one of our pairings has to be two of those guys!
Campoli has been solid enough defensively in most games so far, and I don’t believe any of his rushes has led directly to an odd-man chance or a goal against. He was shit against the Habs, but all in all there’s plenty of blame to go around.
Cannot play with 'em, cannot win with 'em, cannot coach with 'em. Cant do it.

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