Should he stay or should he go? I say he should go.
by Sens_4_Life on Jan 25, 2010 6:38 PM EST
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I know a lot of fans have been getting frustrated for the lack of negotiation with Anton Volchenkov regarding a new contract. With many fans feeling the bitterness of having lost Chara AND Redden for nothing in the Muckler regime, they will be expecting Murray to sign Volchenkov as promptly as possible. However, I believe this decision to keep Volchenkov is a lot more complicated than many realize.
With great defensive prospects coming up the system, like Karlsson, Cowen, and Wiercoch, where will Volchenkov fit in three years? These prospects are hoped to develop into solid blueliners in the NHL. Voilchenkov is probably looking for something in the 4 million dollar range and for approximately 5 or 6 years term. However, the Sens would probably be more comfortable with a 3 years term at around 3 million. If this is possible then Murray should sign Volchenkov now. However, this is very unlikely and Murray knows that. Murray cannot commit long-term to Phillips and Volchenkov at the same time. There needs to be room for the upcoming players and if Volchenkov is signed it could very well hamper the development of these guys (and Phillips is going no where).
If these guys become good defenceman then that might push Volchenkov down the depth chart to be paid 4 million as a 4th d-man. Considering this, it is my suggestion that Murray must deal Volchenkov at the deadline. The team will survive without him (he won't be the reason if we miss the playoffs and if he is then there are more problems), and while he is a very valuable member of the team I think he may be overvalued by many Sens fans and hopefully by other teams in the league. If Murray were to sign Volchenkov for a long-term deal at a price around 4 million then it will not be worth it and it will be a burden of a contract for the Sens in the future, especially if these defensive prospects turn out great and then have to be resigned. This is probably the most marketable Volchenkov may ever be and I think Murray will trade him for prospects/picks. He won't command a huge package but a 2nd rounder (possible a first if we're ever lucky) and a good prospect will have been worth it.
What do you think Volchenkov is worth and how do you see him fitting in (or not fitting in) to the future plans of the Sens?
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And I’d agree on where you put his value at: a 2nd and a prospect; alternatively a 1st if we’re lucky, tho it would probably be a late 1st rounder if that.
He’s wearing down and we desperately need the cap space. Yes he’s our 1a/1b guy on a shaky defence but I think he’s better suited to be a 3-4 guy. And how much longer can he sustain his game at that level?
Unless he’s willing to stay for a short term contract @ less than 3 to 3.5 a year, I say we bounce on this guy. And even then I think trading him this year would be more beneficial going forward.
Cannot play with 'em, cannot win with 'em, cannot coach with 'em. Cant do it.
How do you trade him for prospects and picks?
Look how bad our defence is right now. Take out our number two d-man, how much worse will we be—heading into the playoffs, too.
If Volchenkov gets traded at the deadline, it will have to be for an upgrade at defence; a puck-mover in the vein of Dion Phaneuf. But that won’t happen. Could we trade him for Souray or Vishnovsky? Perhaps, but I don’t think Edmonton is looking for a Volchenkovian defenceman; their style is high-flying. He’d be attractive to a team like Washington, but who knows what we’d get for him?
More likely, we won’t be able to get playoff help by trading him at the deadline, so Murray holds on to him. In the off-season, we’ll realize we can’t get decent value for a pending UFA, and don’t want to let him walk for nothing, so we re-sign him to a middle-ground contract: four years, $16M ($5M, $4M, $4M, $3M), and we collectively wonder when his bruising style catches up to him.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 26, 2010 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
The real problem with moving Volchenkov is that it leaves us with Kuba
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by Mark Parisi on Jan 26, 2010 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think Ottawa should be looking for playoff help, even if they trade Volchenkov away. They need prospects and picks. Besides, Souray or any defenceman along those lines does nothing to improve our chances if Volchenkov is gone.
How does Souray not improve our chances?
Souray-Karlsson
Phillips-Kuba
Carkner-Picard
I’m sorry, that’s an upgrade. Also, when you’re dealing for prospects and picks, you’re trading known quantities for unknown quantities. The Senators have picks this year, and have prospects from last year; not to say they can’t use more, but this team can’t afford a total rebuild, and that’s what trading Volchenkov for picks before a playoff run would constitute.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 26, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Too expensive.
I just don’t think Souray is an upgrade considering he’s getting older, and he’s too expensive. And Karlsson and Souray on the top d-pair is a nightmare for me.
From everything I’ve heard Souray wants nothing other than to be in the west and closer to his family. I believe they’re in Los Angeles. So I’ve heard LA and Dallas as the two most likely destinations, and maybe Anaheim. San Jose might want him, but that’d be positively Chicagoesque of them.
If Souray ends up in Ottawa I will eat my sock.
ryanclassic.net
by Ryan Classic on Jan 27, 2010 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
You're right, there's little possibility of him coming here
Until, of course, his NTC expires after July 1 this year, and then he can go wherever the Oilers want him to. Still, there’s an inherent risk in acquiring a player who wouldn’t choose to play in your city, so Ottawa would have to be careful in those negotiations.
He’s likely off to a West coast team, though.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 27, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
I completely disagree.
Never, ever, trade away real assets today because of the prospect of a glut of assets down the line.
If somehow all the D-guys pan out then you can always trade one of them, or trade Anton then, or go with a defensive-first team, or whatever. You have options.
I agree with you.
Why trade away one of our top D’s for something that maybe will turn out? We need all the help we can get on defence, giving up one of our better defenceman seems irrational. There will be room to accomodate for Volchenkov later down the track. Fingers crossed hometown discount, I cannot see him going anywhere.
Problem with that thought is this
what if we sign him 4 mill/per for 5 years. 2 years from now he has injury trouble and cowen, karlsson and others are pushing him down the depth chart. who is going to take that contract then?
the real point is this. WHEN DO WE EVER DEAL FROM A POSITION OF STRENGTH? WHEN DO WE EVER HAVE SOMEBODY THAT OTHER TEAMS VALUE, AND THAT WE ARE WILLING TO PART WITH?
never. and thats why we rarely feel we’ve won trades. just saying.
Or
he could have limited injury trouble and be an experienced D for the youngsters coming up the depth chart?
I see what you are saying though about the trade value…I just think he is integral to this team as a shutdown unit and I don’t think there are many decent shutdown D’s available.
Good post!
My own view is that Volchenkov’s worth to this team is immeasurable. He must be re-signed at any cost. We are talking about a player here who has blocked more shots than anyone else over the past four years. We all know what our goalies’ save percentages are… no one in their right minds could want them facing another five or even seven more shots a game. Android’s worth comes in all the little things he does that never get noticed. He’s strong, he’s smart, he’s fearless and he’s rarely out of position. Not only is he the goalies’ best friend, but he’s also one of the few players besides Alfredsson that leaves everything he’s got on the ice every night. Those things matter in the playoffs. He’s worth every cent of a 5-year, $4M deal to me. Hell, we paid Kuba 3.7, and he’s not worth that.
Some things to consider:
1) Volchenkov has given a hometown discount to the Senators before. I’ve heard several times that he loves the city and the organization. It’s highly likely that he will take less than market value to stay here.
2) Chris Phillips is 31. His contract is up after next year, and the next one he signs will almost certainly be his last one. He will probably not have as big a cap hit as he currently does.
3) Cowen and Wiercioch are not guaranteed players. Volchenkov is. Blame the coach if you want, but Cowen wasn’t impressive at the WJCs. He has been steady, but unspectacular for the Chiefs, though he does lead them in +/- with a +20. Wiercioch is looking good in Denver, but that’s a far way off from the NHL. It’s no sure thing for them to make the team next year; two years might be more likely.
4) It’s highly unlikely that we will keep all three of Alexandre Picard, Chris Campoli, and Brian Lee. My own opinion is that Lee is gone for sure and Campoli will not be re-signed as well. Kuba is probably trade bait once his limited NTC expires after this year — there is room on our blueline for Volchenkov. In two years we could be looking at:
Phillips-Volchenkov
Karlsson-Cowen
Wiercioch-Carkner
That would easily be the best defense this team has ever had (assuming Cowen and Wiercioch do, in fact, live to their potential) and Volchenkov is the key to that whole group working. Pull his name out of there and put Picard/Campoli/Lee (pick one, it really doesn’t matter) in any pairing you choose. One of those is now substantially weaker.
5) There is money to re-sign him. In two years, Cheechoo and Kovalev, and potentially (yikes) Leclaire come off the books. That’s $8M for the two of them and $11.8 if you throw in Leclaire. We can earmark $1.5M of that to sign the defenseman that holds the corps together. We’ve got to.
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Very good points, but for arguments' sake...
C. 2005-06:
Redden-Meszaros
Chara-Phillips
Volchenkov-Pothier
If the d-corps you outline turns out better than this one, I’ll be amazed.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 26, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Prepare to be amazed
I’ve never been a fan of Mezaros, and I remember what Volchenkov was like before he was paired with Phillips. Pothier was filler. I think we could be better off with the guys we have now. That is, of course, if they live up to their potential.
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by Mark Parisi on Jan 26, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
True Fact
In 3 games that I’ve been to where Pothier has been playing, he has scored a goal in each one. Therefore Vancouver should trade for him immediately, give me season tickets, and buy me 28 jerseys to wear. He’ll still score, but I’ll be stylin’.
[Note: 28 jerseys do not include Detroit or Toronto. One jersey will be a Canucks jersey to substitute on game days]
ryanclassic.net
by Ryan Classic on Jan 27, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
I don't know if you're giving those six enough credit
That was Redden at his finest (50 points that season), an outstanding rookie season for Meszaros, an incredible shutdown pairing between Phillips and Chara, and Volchenkov as a third pairing defenceman, with Pothier as a number six? Forget about it. Pothier hasn’t been great on Washington, but they’d asked too much of him. As a number six, he’s pretty good.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 27, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
The thing is, I think Wiercioch-Carkner is a much stronger pair than Volchenkov-Pothier was. Andriod wasn’t Android in those days; it took Chara’s departure to get him the minutes to develop into the player he is now. I guess I’m just a Brian Pothier hater.
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Well, really, you think that, if development continues positively, Wiercioch-Carkner can be a much stronger pairing than Volchenkov-Pothier. Maybe they can be, but I’m not ready to commit to two defencemen—Cowen and Wiercioch—who, however much potential they have, still haven’t even played in the league. That’s the dangerous part of personnel management, I think: Getting too high on a player before he justifies that excitement.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 27, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
That's true
But I really believe that Wiercioch is going to be a more physical version of Wade Redden. Carkner right now I think is equal to Volchenkov of 2005 and any of our defensemen now could fill Pothier’s shoes.
But you’re right, my opinion is only based on the players’ potential.
Silver Seven - The Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators Blogs
That was an insane lineup...
The memories…I highly doubt we will have a defensive lineup that good for a long time…Redden +35, Meszaros +34 insane!
Work to be done before Volchenkov
With Cheechoo and Kovalev on the books, there is no room for ANYTHING… A good passer who hangs around the perimeter and scores 18 goals or so a year is not worth $5 million, but there are GMs who would take him on at the trade deadline. Cheechoo can probably only be bought out. With those two off the books there would be room for Volchenkov and a top six guy who will show up regularly and hang around in other places than along the boards and put up some numbers. There are no guarantees on Wiercoch or Cowen, and so they should be brought in slowly. And in spite of the fact that everyone is down on Brian Lee, maybe he’ll be a late bloomer. Great hitters and shot blockers are hard to find. This coming trade deadline will be the most interesting one in many years and we’ll see what Murray is made of… or if they just decide to stand pat and go with what they have. After all I don’t but you could argue that a good part of the reason for Fisher’s career year is Kovalev.
Agreed on Wiercioch and Cowen
I seriosly doubt either of them will compete for an NHL roster spot next year. I had high expectations earlier in the season, but I’m not sold on that yet. So the future isn’t quite here yet for the Senators’ defence corps.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 26, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
There’s still a chance that Cowen and Wiercioch make huge strides in the offseason and make the team, like Regin did this year, but I’m not holding my breath. Cowen did survive the first round of cuts last year, though, so who knows?
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Cowen survived the first round of cuts by being injured
He’s been disastrous in Spokane and was relegated to the bench for most of the World Junior Championships. Every person I know who follows Spokane (religiously) has a major hate for him.
Basically, don’t get your hopes up yet. Let the kid develop.
ryanclassic.net
by Ryan Classic on Jan 27, 2010 1:35 AM EST up reply actions
I’d argue that one of, if not the biggest reason for Fisher’s success this year has been playing with kovalev. He hasnt played for long stretches of time with a player of that caliber since Havlat, and he’s never played with a decent playmaker either. Also the ammount of defensive attention Kovy draws away fromFish can only be helping.
He might not be worth 5 a year, but they stand a much better chance in playoffs with him in the lineup. Given Murray’s record I’d rather see him stand pat.
Cannot play with 'em, cannot win with 'em, cannot coach with 'em. Cant do it.
I think it’s a tough call, everyone has good points. While Volchenkov is a great defenceman I just don’t know how he’ll fit into the future. I think Volchenkov will always realistically slot into a 3rd defence roll simply because of his lack of scoring. It won’t be worth it to pay him over 4 million in that roll.
Yeah, there's no easy answer here
The only thing I can think we know for sure is that Murray won’t let Volchenkov walk for nothing. I have confidence that he’s got a plan in place, even if I have no clue what it might be.
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possible location
I could Murray trading him to the Caps maybe for Alexandre Giroux cuz he will be a UFA and he will be down with fellow russian ovechkin and semin and i think Mcphee would try to re-sign him to a long term deal and pair him up next to Mike Green.
by Skins4ever on Jan 31, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
Green and Volchenkov wouldn't work
We all talk about Android like he’s a defensive defenceman, but he’s far too risky to pair up as the ‘defensive conscience’ on a pairing. The reason he works so well with Phillips is that when Volchenkov takes risks to make hits, block shots, or whatever else, Phillips is in position to cover up. With Green rushing the puck and Volchenkov going for big hits, you’d see all sorts of odd-man rushes against WAS.
by Peter Raaymakers on Jan 31, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
Which wouldn't be a bad thing...
I’m all for odd-man rushes against the Caps…But I think Volchenkov fits in nicely and is a crucial piece of our team. I don’t want to see him go…
I would be very disappointed if he were not re-signed
I don’t think there’s another defensemen on our roster or in our system that can do what he does.
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but will murray re-sign him, i think he will ask for more money in negoations and if he doesnt feel he can resign him, trade him and get something in return
by Skins4ever on Feb 3, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
I think Murray will be able to resign...
and understands that he has a role to fill in this team, if he is let go there will be a big void to fill. But sure if negotiations do fail then trade him while his value is high. In saying that he has already taken a hometown discount for us once…
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