Grading the Senators' July 1st Performance

by DarrenM on Jul 2, 2009 9:00 AM EDT

Moves:

Signed Erik Condra, Martin St. Pierre, Mike Brodeur to two-way contracts to boost the depth of organization. All three will likely stay in Binghamton with the B-Sens for the year, barring any emergency call-ups.
Signed Chris Neil to a 4 year deal worth $8M

Non-Moves:

Dany Heatley still an Ottawa Senator.

GRADE: D

The only thing pushing this above a flat out F is that we nabbed some good players for the Binghamton Senators, who really could use some help. However, none of those players really address any needs for the Ottawa Senators in the 09/10 campaign.

And though Chris Neil does add something the Senators need in their lineup, he does so at what is one of the worst contracts signed this offseason. You do not spend $2 million a year for a fighter who put up career numbers 4 years ago - and that was 33 points - and has declined ever since. Some may argue that it was worth it, because other teams - Edmonton, Toronto, and NYR - offered more money (NYR offering 2.3M for 4 years), but they are wrong. They are wrong because you shouldn't be using Glen Sather as a guideline for a sensible deal. They are wrong because we will have 4 more years of bad penalties coming at a price that is far too much for a player who puts up far too few points. And finally, they are wrong because for the next four years, every free agent who is offered less than $8M over 4 years by Bryan Murray will say, "What, you don't think I'm as good as Chris Neil?"

At the end of the season, we knew we needed more secondary scoring. Well, we may have lost Mike Comrie, we didn't sign any strong UFA forwards, and we have a Dany Heatley who now believes that the Ottawa Senators have treated him unfairly by finding him a trading partner. As I mentioned earlier, if you thought things were looking grim before, it may just get worse - its hard to imagine many teams wanting to take a risk on Heatley putting them in a similar position down the line.

There you have it. To improve the Ottawa Senators team that did not make the playoffs, we have a more expensive Chris Neil, a more volatile Dany Heatley, and a more confused and depressed fanbase.

Well, there's always the 2010 NHL Draft to look forward to, right?

Tweet Comment 16 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

oh woe is me

poor Senators .. stuck with Dany Heatley one of the best scorers in the league … poor poor Senators

by aagoodfella on Jul 2, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

smart Sens fans realize

that they have Heatley’s cajones in a vice and should be happy with the new leveraged position.

Heatley’s equity value in the league is drastically diminished. Nobody was willing to offer up trade for value and many have spoken out against him. If Heatley wants to re-establish his name in this league, either for future trade value or a new contract a few years hence, he has to behave like a team choir boy and score like Gretzky. It is a great position for the Sens. Heatley has just massively increased his need to perform which would benefit the Sens greatly, if he stays. As a Sens fan, you should be happy. Heatley has screwed himself into a corner, to your benefit as a Sens fan.

Getting all angry and wanting to dump him is just a dysfunctional response. Good business people would be drooling over this situation. You should be happy for Heatley’s grandiose lack of business acumen. If Murray was smart enough to let Heatley screw himself into this circumstance than I say cheers. If he was just lucky, than more power to him. Either way … it is good.

Time to start focusing on 2nd and 3rd line forwards. Heatley should be considered locked in and super-motivated to perform. Good times, Sens fans. Good times.

by aagoodfella on Jul 2, 2009 10:14 AM EDT reply actions

i agree but still...

i wouldn’t mind seeing him leave regardless, we have a chance to have a more flexible payroll with a revamped team. But if your hypothesis ends up being the case, good for us. but without a doubt we need more depth,the days of counting on the cashline to carry us offensivly have to end and signing neil cripples that chance to do so to quite some extend. as fans we have to see what happens and prey for the best. You made a good point.

by xBKx14 on Jul 2, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t believe it, this is a monumental fail. I’m from the binghamton area, so i’ve been a sens fan since 02 when i was 10, a loyal fan for 7 years in new york. I’ve seen alot in 7 years as well. i watched ottawa drop in the conference final after winning the president’s trophy in 03, losing the stanley cup in 07 and the infamous meltdown of ottawa from 07-present. No matter what happens i’ll always be behind this team, and tell of any arrogant leafer, but in all honesty, this is by far one of the hardest times to be a sens fan. It’s as if murray wants to keep tormenting us. Sure i’m thrilled that binghamton’s set for this season, and in my opinion will be a calder cup contender, but for the love of god. Neil for 2 mil a year, as a gm how could think this makes any sense. i don’t care if he wants to stay, we have enough leadership anyway. and like you said, 4 years of bad penalties at a higher price that won’t see better days. I liked bass here but i wanted him to have a solid spot in ottawa, now that won’t happen. This in every aspect is a horrible decision by murray. But to be positive, we can still save our season, heatley’s trade value is up because we paid his bonus and neil’s is up because teams can get him for less than they would have offered(idiots) like NYR or EDM so i’ve heard. perhaps if we throw neil in the heatley trade (maybe picard too) we can much more that originally. i liked the cogliano, penner, and smid deal alot don’t get me wrong, but neither penner or cogliano are top line players, i think we could get a better player with a second line center and whatever else now potentially. Dark days will come if neil stays, we’ll see hopefully in the near future. Sorry for the long comment, i had alot on my mind.

by xBKx14 on Jul 2, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions

I think every Sens fan agrees with you that it’s hard to be a fan right now. And while the $4M being paid would have made Heatley more appealing, I think his actions as of late have nullified any positive effect that could have.

by DarrenM on Jul 2, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

dark days are over

since Clouston took over mid last-season, the Sens generated points per game at a rate that would have yielded 101 over a full season (19-11-4 = 42 points over 34 games produces 101 points over 82 games). In other words, the Sens would be highly seeded in the playoffs. If Heatley stays, I would expect Sens to be 4 or 5 seed in the East, at least this high, if not higher.

If you look at season versus season (2007-08 versus 2008-09), it looks like the Sens are getting worse, but in fact, the trend seems to indicate that the team has already bottomed and is on the way up.

Basically, I like to sum up the Sens over the past two season as: “The Sens were the worst team to make the playoffs in 2008 and the best team to miss the playoffs in 2009.”

In 2007-08, the Sens started off super hot. On the strength of a strong 9-1 October, the Sens finished the first half of 2007-08 with 59 points implying 1.44 points per game … a huge number implying a 118 point season. But in the second half of 2007-08 the Sens tanked horribly. They generated only 35 points implying 0.85 points per game … a terrible number implying a 70 point season. In Jan-Apr 2008, the Sens were either .500 or less, each month. They stumbled into the playoffs as just a horrible team. But folks would conclude that since the team made the playoffs, it was a successful season. I would say not.

Now in 2008-09, the experience was opposite. In the first half of 2008-09, the Sens continued their skid. In the first 41 games of 2008-09, the Sens generated a paltry 34 point or 0.83 points per game .. implying a 68 point season – blech. However, in the second half of the season, the Sens really turned it on. The team generated 48 points or 1.17 points per game .. implying a 96 point season. It was a nice rally, but not enough to get the Sens into the playoffs. Some folks would say 2008-09 was an unsuccessful season, but I would say it was good in that the Sens shed the year-long slump that started in mid 2007-08 and continued through 2008-09. Bottom line, the Sens were one of the stronger teams in second half of 2008-09 despite missing the playoffs.

These are not dark days for Sens. The Sens exited 2008-09 as one of the strongest teams in the East. The fact that the Sens missed the 2009 playoffs is more an artifact of the timing of the Sens’ decline and recovery more than the quality of the team now. Dany Heatley is an important part of a strong Senators team. The team should fight to keep him and fans should be excited to have a scoring talent of his caliber on this team. If the Sens lose Dany, it will be truly dark days for the Sens.

We all know the key issues facing the team. It is a lack of depth beyond the big three. Behind the big three, the goalie situation appears resolved and the blue line is looking much tighter. The Sens need a stronger cast of 2nd and 3rd line skaters. This should be the focus the team.

So forget about the Heatley soap opera. He is inked to a long-term deal, the team needs him and there is no reason to trade him, despite his personality quirks. This team, with Heatley and some skater pickups should easily make the playoffs next year and could very reasonably win the cup. Should you really risk that opportunity over a little tiff with Heatley? I think not. Go Sens!

by aagoodfella on Jul 2, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

i really like the way you look at it.

using the statistics of our point production over the years does make me look at it differently, i mean i am still frustrated that we signed Neil for more than he’s worth, but perhaps the people in the front office see it the way you did. according to stats we really are back on track like you said, and we have nobody else to thank but Cory Clouston. I know when he got moved up that he was what ottawa needed, now we have a coach that despite being tough on players, has an ability to earn respect from his team while providing a aggressive fore-cheak system thats working as well in ottawa as it did in binghamton. everyone in binghamton loves him, and alot of us considered ourselves serious calder cup contenders at one point due to our succsess despite diversity (isbister, daugavins, nikulun wanting out). we boo nikulun every time he touches the put we he comes back like we boo mats Sundin when he’s in ottawa. I’m sure last years succsess will carry over to next year. but back on topic maybe it is best to hold on to the team we have. I guess i might have been blindsighted when healtey asked to be dealt, and causing more trouble in doing so. Those were things that made me think we needed to move on anyway, originally i was confused by his request because his point production was through the roof in the stetch, although he wasn’t on the top pp unit, it was best for the team to win apparently, going back to my old opinoin, heatley needs to calm down and play for why he signed, which was to win a cup, and if playing second pp unit is the anwser, than it souldn’t phase him. Suppose he did stay, and we were on the top of the conferance, like everyone knows we can be, do you think he’ll want to move then, very doubtful. I’m glad you made this point, it puts me a little more at ease with the situation. I totally forgot our man Cory’s got our back ALL year this time. I’m still in for a little more depth though, nothing can change my mind on that, and i’m still skeptical on Neil. Again you make a good point. nice post.

by xBKx14 on Jul 2, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I like your style, but some flawed logic

I agree that “dark days for the Sens” is a little melodramatic. Not being able to move Heatley yesterday handcuffed the team from signing anyone else, but we already made a splash in signing Leclaire. Emery proved that this team just needs consistent goaltending to be contenders, and Leclaire should give us that.

Heatley is not as important as you make him out to be. His 154 points the past two seasons have gotten the team exactly zero playoff wins. All your points about Clouston’s system are true, but remember, that system is the reason Heatley doesn’t want to play here anymore — at least, until he says differently himself.

The Sens can be successful this season with this roster, and in fact, I think they will be. But it will require everyone playing a team game. If Heatley chooses not to do that, then he’s a bigger liability to the team than he is an asset, no matter how may points he scores.

Calling his actions over the past month a tiff or quirk and expecting him to simply come back to the team and contribute is simply ignoring the facts. What has he done since the trade request became public that shows he’s going to suddenly buy in and be a team player?

by Mark Parisi on Jul 2, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

(1) declined a trade when offered
(2) maintained personal relationships with other Senators players
(3) not publicly disparaged the team or the organization

the guy has not burned his bridges with the Sens and left the door open to his return (as have the Sens) …

like I said, the best outcome of this situation will be the return of Dany Heatley

by aagoodfella on Jul 2, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

(1) is a nonsensical argument. He didn’t decline the trade because he wants to stay with the team, he declined it because he didn’t want to go to Edmonton. In fact, if Edmonton was the best deal offered, and presumably it was since Murray took it, and he refused because he wants Ottawa to take a worse deal, that’s the antithisis of a team player.

(2) presumably refers to Spezza’s bachelor party. That’s great. I don’t have any problems with Dany Heatley as a person. I’m glad he’s freinds with Spezza. That doesn’t prove he’s a team player, that proves he has friends outside of work. The Sun and Citizen can trash his “character” all they want; I won’t ever agree with them. Bet he wouldn’t go to Clouston’s bachelor party, though, and his relationship with the coach matters more right now than his off-ice relationships.

(3) I respect him a lot for not retaliating against the barrage of attacks coming from Ottawa media channels, but what’s the more likely reason he hasn’t disparaged the organization: He doesn’t want to burn bridges (after demanding a trade) or he knows that criticism of his current team while he’s still on it will further damage his reputation around the NHL and make it harder to get the trade he asked for accomplished? Occham’s razor says it’s the latter.

Nothing you’ve listed makes him a team player. The actions of a team player are to A) Play your role within the system and earn your minutes (see Foligno, Nick) or B) Ask for a trade in private and accept the offer that helps your team as you leave. He has done neither.

by Mark Parisi on Jul 2, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I have never said Heatley is a good team player nor have I said that he is not a complete immature jerk …. in fact, I think he is a big weanie

however, he is a very talented hockey playing big weanie … and just because he acts like a big weanie does not mean that the appropriate response is to be a big weanie back. The Sens are an organization with goals of winning cup and making money. With the state of the mkt for NHL players and the contract they Sens have with Heatley, at the moment keeping Heatley is the Sens’ best option right now. So grin and bear it. He is the Sens current best option for winning the cup.

by aagoodfella on Jul 2, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, dude

I thought you listed those as what he had done to show he’d buy in to Clouston’s system and be a team player. My mistake if I misinterpreted your post.

I think we can agree that he’s a very talented hockey player, and a big weenie. Where we disagree is that he’s the Sens current best option for winning the Cup. I can’t imagine a GM saying to himself, “You know what we need to win the Cup? MORE JERKS!” (Well, maybe Glen Sather)

by Mark Parisi on Jul 2, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I am speculating, but I think he, at least in part, regrets the incident

folks like him will always be difficult to subordinate to team interests but than that is what makes them spectacular individualists

if you always go around subordinating interest to the team, than you may compromise individual skills development

it is always a difficult balance – and the process can be challenging but alas, we are at the very boundaries of hockey excellence here (ie: NHL best league in the world and Dany Heatley one of, if not the best, pure scorers in the world)

the Sens Heatley combo, which has proven very effective, is too good a thing to throw away over individual fallabilities

by aagoodfella on Jul 2, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

But it doesn't matter if it's too good to throw away

Because Heatley is throwing it away and there’s nothing we can do about it.

by Sensfan on Jul 2, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

patience grasshopper

by aagoodfella on Jul 2, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

But...

If Neil doesn’t deliver,he can always fill in for Gabo when he has another season ending injury next year in NY, and we’ll get something helpful at best in return.

by xBKx14 on Jul 2, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions