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A Startling Resemblance: Are the 2008-09 Canadiens just the 2007-08 Senators?

Ahorrificresemblance_medium


On Wednesday, April 22, 2009, the Montréal Canadiens lost the fourth game of the Eastern Conference first-versus-eighth quarter-final against the Boston Bruins, being swept out of the playoffs by the very team that they eliminated in the first round of the playoffs the previous season.

On Wednesday, April 16, 2008, the Ottawa Senators lost the fourth game of the Eastern Conference first-versus-eighth second-versus-seventh (Ed.: Thanks SLC) quarter-final against the Pittsburgh Penguins, being swept out of the playoffs by the very team that they eliminated in the first round of the playoffs the previous season.

Both teams had started their seasons with incredibly high expectations, one with high hopes in their centennial season and the other coming off a very impressive run to the Stanley Cup Final. Both hit the ground running when the puck dropped on their respective seasons, Montréal winning eight of their first ten, Ottawa winning 15 of their first 17. Both slowed down tremendously as the season wore on, fired their head coaches (Guy Carbonneau for Montréal, John Paddock for Ottawa, both of whom one-time assistant coaches who'd been given promotions) and saw their general managers take over behind the bench (Bob Gainey for the Habs, Bryan Murray for the Sens). Each team saw some degree of improvement under their general managers, and barely scraped into the eighth spot in the NHL's Eastern Conference playoffs. And then both were unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs by the very teams they'd eliminated in the first round of the previous year.

 

RECORD

PTS%

RECORD

PTS%

 

OTT

OTT

MTL

MTL

1

9-0-1

90

8-1-1

85

2

7-3-0

70

3-3-4

50

3

4-3-3

55

5-4-1

55

4

6-3-1

65

8-1-1

85

5

5-5-0

50

4-6-0

40

6

4-5-1

45

3-6-1

35

7

3-5-2

40

5-3-2

60

8

5-6-1

46

5-5-2

50

The resemblance is startling. The chart above shows the statistical similarities throughout the regular season, which was the basis for the graph at the top of the article. Ottawa had a higher high, but Montréal had more of them. Montréal had a lower low, but Ottawa had more of them. Those relatively minor differences aside, the 2008-09 Montréal Canadiens performed so similarly to the 2007-08 Ottawa Senators that it's eerie.

There were, obviously, also significant differences. In the personnel, for one, and the transactions made--or not made--throughout the season. With the Senators looking at some significant producers entering unrestricted free agency, both of Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley were re-signed to long-term, big-money contracts. The Canadiens, in a similar situation with Alex Tanguay, Saku Koivu, Alex Kovalev, and Robert Lang, decided against any decisions on contracts. Those, however, are off-ice distinctions; the similarities between the on-ice results are too stark to disregard.

Should this become a trend for fans to expect in the new NHL, or is this simply a case of two coincidentally similar situations falling onto two coincidentally similar (and similarly over-analyzed) organizations? It could certainly be that the pressures placed on teams that can hardly build dynasties due to the realities of the salary-cap NHL are unfair, and that the disproportionate load placed onto top-line players wears them out before the season has even entered its most important phase, the playoffs. But that's merely conjecture based on a relatively small sample size, for the time being. We may have to see it as a simple resemblance at the moment, albeit a startling one.

0 recs  |  Comment 10 comments |

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Saw this comparion being made...

Hard to say though. At the end of the 08 regular season, the Sens were playing better (relatively) and the Habs were slumping at the end of this season,.

by Stadtfeld on Apr 23, 2009 12:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, Stadtfeld – even though Ottawa was playing relatively better, they still finished playing worse hockey than Montreal did.

Great post, Peter. One thing worth noting is that Montreal was also haunted with speculation as to off-ice distractions, partying, and a goaltender who made his name known the previous season now making headlines for his antics.

by DarrenM on Apr 23, 2009 12:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

How did I not note that?

Off-ice distractions, including specifically “partying”, that people assumed was what led to the downfall of the team’s season. And Price v. Emery… such different individuals, but in such similar scenarios.

Eerie.

by PeterR on Apr 23, 2009 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The resemblance is purely statistical. What rotted both clubs is as different as night and day.

by Robert L on Apr 23, 2009 1:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not so fast!

They both had an overrated goalie, a bunch of soft forwards, a leaky defence, and a delusional fanbase.
Oh, and they both had two key players injured in their second last game of the season against the Leafs.
Sounds like they had a lot in common.

Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.

by PPP on Apr 23, 2009 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They're like the 09 Senators too:

Out of the playoffs.

I think you should send Carey Price a No Habs No t-shirt in thanks for his immensely valuable play this year, Peter.

by Graham on Apr 23, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah!

Put the picture of me in front of the Carey Price sign on it!

by DarrenM on Apr 23, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

IIRC The Senators relied on a hot 1st Quarter of the season to qualify for the playoffs. In Quarters 2, 3 and 4 they were actually a below average team.

Did Montreal have the same pattern? I seem to recall them getting off to a hot start.

by The Falconer on Apr 24, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Small correction, Pete. The 07-08 Sens finished in seventh to set up the rematch with the #2 seeded Pens (Habs/Bruins was the 1-8 matchup, same as this year only reversed).

But other than that, you’re right, the similarities are eerie.

by SLC on Apr 26, 2009 3:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Blast!

Must have just forgotten that. There are a lot of things about the last two seasons I try to forget. Thanks for the note, SLC.

by PeterR on Apr 27, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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