Senators defence succession plan, 2009-2014

by PeterR on Oct 26, 2009 7:00 AM EDT Comment 16 comments

In what might be the most ridiculous waste of time I commit this week, I've assembled a succession plan based on the Ottawa Senators' current defensive depth:

Legend: Green = current contracts; yellow = contract extensions; numbers = position on depth chart

It was actually kind of cool to put together, even though it's the kind of depth chart which would change every week with a player's play and every season with the incoming and outgoing players. There are, obviously, flaws, a few of which I will openly admit:

I'm likely overstating the development of prospects Erik Karlsson and Jared Cowen; as a fourth-year pro, I have Karlsson leading the Senators' defence corps, and Cowen jumps into the fold next season.
After this year, Chris Phillips begins a rapid and steep decent down Ottawa's depth chart. It's unlikely he'll fall to the third pairing that quickly.
The only way Brian Lee sticks around Ottawa as an eighth-ranked defenceman is if he signs a two-way contract extension this off-season, and that's not something he'd like to do. If he sticks around, I do think he'll turn into a solid part of the Senators' d-corps.
Although Matt Carkner's NHL career is on an upward slope, he falls down Ottawa's depth chart above. If that happens, it would be a reflection of other players improving than him declining. It's to soon to say whether or not Carkner's still improving steadily enough to climb the depth chart.
Of the three RFAs this season, Alex Picard is my opinion of the strongest blue-line contributor. He's got a lot to prove to get that highly sought after spot.
Filip Kuba walks or is traded after 2011-12. At that point, he'll be 35, and may be re-signed--but injuries already seem to be catching up to him.
GM Bryan Murray's going to have to swallow his pride if Chris Campoli walks during or after this season, but he looks like the odd man out at this point.

It was still a fun excercise, though.

What are your thoughts about who will fit where, and when?

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I like Campoli over Picard. The games where he’s been able to play away from Karlsson he’s been fantastic – not his fault he’s been stuck with a rookie d-man.

Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.

by DarrenM on Oct 26, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably true

I wrote this before Picard’s epic collapse against Nashville. Time will tell with these two, but Campoli’s looked more consistent, even if he’s had fewer points.

www.silversevensens.com

by PeterR on Oct 26, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Dont know what you’ve been watching but Picard has hands down outplayed Campoli so far. Regardless of whether or not Karlsson has been dragging him down, Campoli’s game has simply not been at an NHL level. Given Picard’s game against Nashville was a total abortion, but otherwise he’s been generally reliable and much more decisive with the puck than last year. You cant disregard his otherwise strong play over one bad game.

To me, Campoli hasnt impressed once this season. Also Picard has managed to maintain a decent level of play while leading the team in ice time (over 25 minutes Saturday nite).

The defence is hard to judge right now as they’ve been playing over their head so far. We should get a better idea of what all these guys are about as they start to play more contenders and playoff caliber teams.

by Andrew J on Oct 26, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

I don’t think Campoli has any business being on the ice once Kuba gets back. Karlsson needs to be playing with Kuba, and Picarkner shouldn’t be broken up.

by Mark Parisi on Oct 26, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it wrong that I’m flip-flopping, even if it means I go back to my original point?

Either way, it’s a bit early to judge which one is better. We only saw Picard for the first half of the season last year, and we only saw Campoli for the latter half. Personally, I like what Picard brings a bit more than what Campoli brings, but they’re both still pretty young.

www.silversevensens.com

by PeterR on Oct 26, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know, I’m close to flip-flopping myself. I mean, who’s to say that Campoli wouldn’t look just as good with Carkner? For me, the skill set that they bring to the table makes them essentially the same player. That means whoever is the better player recently is the one who should be in the lineup.

But with Kuba and Karlsson, they’re not a skill set we need, in my opinion. I want a Cowen-Carkner 3rd pairing.

by Mark Parisi on Oct 26, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Peter, you’re drinking drano. Neither Picard, Campoli or Lee will be on this team in a few years.

by Mark Parisi on Oct 26, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It may be the Drain-O talking...

… but I actually think Brian Lee will be a serviceable number four defenceman in the league. His development has been slow, to say the least, but I think he’s got a good chance to be a part of the team’s defence.

Although, with free agents and other trades fairly common, I won’t be surprised if the d-corps varies significantly from that succession.

www.silversevensens.com

by PeterR on Oct 26, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, you know I like Lee. But I don’t think he’s going to get a fair shake with this team, and I don’t know why. Maybe Murray doesn’t like him?

by Mark Parisi on Oct 26, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could be that Murray's no fan of Lee

A lot of GMs are more loyal to players they brought in, so if that’s the case with Murray, Campoli and Picard might get the edge over Lee with regards to being re-signed.

Still, I think that the terms these three would be willing to sign extensions to are almost as important as their play this season. Almost. Looking at the climate with some free agents this past season, and a plethora of so-so talent around the league, it’s not unrealistic to think one of these three could sign a two-way deal.

www.silversevensens.com

by PeterR on Oct 26, 2009 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Picard keep up his steady play he’s probably the ideal candidate for this early season trade that Murray is looking for (apparently? havent heard anything on this front for awhile).

In any event I do think Lee will get a crack at playing decent minutes with the big club this year. They really have no choice, they can’t possibly justify qualifying him next summer without giving him meaningful minutes this season and it would be a huge waste if they let him walk w/o doing everything they can to develop his talent.

I agree with Peter that Picard and Campoli are pretty much the same player and if only one is in the lineup (as it should be), both are only as good as their last games. That said I think if either of these guys has a good consistent season it bodes very poorly for Brian Lee. Although the spot should be Lee’s to lose.

by Andrew J on Oct 26, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Although rumours about trading a d-man have died down, I think Murray’d take a deal that made sense, because there are still two extra NHL defencemen on this roster, if you include Lee in that category—which I would.

I don’t think Picard and Campoli are the same, though. Picard’s got a bit more physicality and might be stronger defensively (plus he’s got a wicked shot), while Campoli’s better offensively—at least with regards to puck-moving—and can make an outlet pass better than Picard. They’re about the same in overall value, but the assets that add up to give them that value are fairly different.

www.silversevensens.com

by PeterR on Oct 26, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reading the words, “Picard’s … stronger defensively”, in any context, make me cringe.

by dzuunmod on Oct 26, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Understandable

Maybe what I mean is that Picard has a better upside defensively. Either way, I think he could and/or should actually be a pretty solid defender.

www.silversevensens.com

by PeterR on Oct 26, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or is it, Campoli has more downside defensively? I tease, but I don’t see much of a defender in either of these two.

I like Campoli better long-term because of what he’s done in the past, but I think I’d have Lee playing ahead of both of ’em.

by dzuunmod on Oct 27, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i figure carkner goes neither up nor down. i would like to see him remain the 6th D for the duration of his new deal. he brings elements that are not found elsewhere in the D corps, without being a defensive liability, at a reasonable price.

by Buz Killington on Oct 27, 2009 3:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs